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Pre-salt, Local Content Policy & New bidding rounds Offshore Technology Conference - OTC 2013 - Houston, Texas/EUA Palestrante: Magda Chambriard, Diretora-geral da ANP
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Pre-salt,Local Content Policy &
25 min
Local Content Policy &New bidding rounds
Magda Chambriard
Director general
May 7, 2013
Summary
Brazil and Petroleum Sector Evolution1
3
Current Scenario and Perspectives 2
Local Content4
ANP Bidding-rounds5
Final Comments6
Pre-salt3
Summary
Brazil and Petroleum Sector Evolution1
3
Current Scenario and Perspectives 2
Local Content4
ANP Bidding-rounds5
Final Comments6
Pre-salt3
Brazil
Area: 8,502,728 km²
Population: 196 million
GDP: US$ 2.3 trillion
World’s seventh largest economy
Political , Economical and Regulatory Political , Economical and Regulatory stability
Over US$ 377 billion in International Reserves
Investment grade (Moody’s, Fitch and Standard and Poors)
Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels regulated under the same institutional environment (ANP)
41
53
40
50
60
Apparent consumption of diesel oil (million m 3 per year)
Brazilian market in fuel numbers
26
20
25
30
Apparent consumption of gasoline (million m 3 per year)
0 2 4
11
20
31
0
10
20
30
40
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2012
12
6
14
7
14
17
0
5
10
15
20
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2012
Crude oil production (bbl/d)
Crude Oil Production
1 500 000
1 750 000
2 000 000
2 250 000
ANP
Pre-saltdiscoveryx 3
0
250 000
500 000
750 000
1 000 000
1 250 000
1 500 000
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2012 2013
Pre-salt283 M bbl/d
(feb/13)
Garoupa Campos Basin
ANP creation
12
14
15
12
14
16
18
Proven Reserves of Crude Oil
Proven Reserves of Crude Oil (billion bbl)
1 1 1 1
3
5
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
Creation of Petrobras
Creation of ANP RoyaltiesDiscussion
The resuming of ANP bidding rounds
Pre-salt discoveries: new paradigm
Creation of Inter-ministerial Group
MP 592/12 & Law 12734/12
1953 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pre-salt – new regulatory framework: Higher potential
Petrobras Capitalization
Blocks in the Pre-salt cluster
ANP has invested in G&G surveys to increase knowledge of the Brazilian sedimentary b asins.
Constitutional Amendment
Nº 9/95
Summary
Brazil and Petroleum Sector Evolution1
3
Current Scenario and Perspectives 2
Local Content4
ANP Bidding-rounds5
Final Comments6
Pre-salt3
Proven ReservesOil – ~15.3 billion bblGas – ~459.3 billion m 3
Near future: x2
Production Oil and NGL – 2.2 million bbl/day
Current scenarioand perspectives
(2012)
25
30
35
40
Proven Reserves (Bboe)
Imports /Exports BalanceOil – 237.9 thousand bbl/dayGas – 35.8 million m 3/day
Oil and NGL – 2.2 million bbl/dayGas – 70.7 million m 3/dayNear future: x2
39 national companies38 foreign companies
Petroleum Natural Gas
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Near
future
“One country, three systems…”
7.5 million km 2 - 4.2 % under concession
Onerousassignment:7 blocks
~ 2% of sedimentary areas:Production Sharing Regime1st Pre-salt Bidding Round
Other areas: Concession Regime11th and 12 th Rounds
JubarteOil: 38.6 M bbl/d
Gas: 1.2 MM m 3/dBaleia Azul
Oil: 72.2 M bbl/dGas: 2.4 MM m 3/d
VoadorOil: 3.1 M bbl/dGas: 74 M m 3/d
MarlimOil : 2.5 M bbl /d
TrilhaOil: 384 bbl/d
Gas: 12 M m /d
Pre-salt Production(February 2013)
Oil: 283 M bbl/d; Gas: 9.4 MM m³/d
LulaOil: 94.2 M bbl/d
Gas: 3.8 MM m 3/d
SapinhoáOil: 24.5 M bbl/dGas: 922 M m 3/d
Oil : 2.5 M bbl /dGas: 60.5 M m 3/d
Marlim LesteOil: 31.2 M bbl/dGas: 496 M m 3/d
BarracudaOil: 894 bbl/d
Gas: 13.6 M m 3/d
CaratingaOil: 14 M bbl/d
Gas: 214 M m 3/d
LinguadoOil: 610 bbl/d
Gas: 82 M m 3/d
Gas: 12 M m3/d
PampoOil: 654 bbl/d
Gas: 38 M m 3/d
Oil fields in production Top 10 (february 13)
297
244
170200
300
Oil production (M bbl/d)
140
11595 94
75 72 68
0
100
Pre-salt
Pre-salt ProductionPlatforms up to 2013
Pre-salt shall be responsible for 40-50% of oil pro duction in 10 years.
Cidade de Anchieta –Baleia Azul Cidade de Angra dos Reis – Lula Cidade de São Paulo – Sapinhoá
Cidade de Paraty – Lula (may/13) P-58 – Parque das Baleias (nov/13) – Pre e pos-salt
Source: Petrobras Business Plan
Summary
Brazil and Petroleum Sector Evolution1
3
Current Scenario and Perspectives 2
Local Content4
ANP Bidding-rounds5
Final Comments6
Pre-salt3
Next decade, the demand for goods and services should reach U$ 400 billion
Opportunities for suppliers in the petroleum sector
ShellOGXQueiroz GalvãoBP
35
Petrobras Investments in E&P in BrazilAverage values in the 5- year period Business Plan (US$ Billion)*
*Based on information from the Petrobras Business Plan
BPStatoilChevronBGPetrogalOthers
6 79
13
18
2224
26
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Valor Médio (2013-2017)Averagevalues
(2013-2017)
Local Content Commitments in Concession Agreements
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Average Local Content
Con
tent
Offe
rings
(%)
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
E xploration Development
Bid Round
Loca
l C
onte
nt
Pre-salt
According to O&G reserves forecast, Brazil shall nee d to invest heavily in infrastructure (platforms, supply boats, pipelines, ports, shipyards, steel etc.).
Petrobras – already auctioned
28 drilling rigs7 in PE, 6 in BA, 6 in ES, 6 in RJ and 3 in RS
Naval industry
OSX Shipyard
6 modules (OGX)
4 hulls (OGX)
Jurong Shipyard(under construction)
6 rigs
Atlântico SulShipyard
7 rigs
P-62
São Roque Shipyard
P-59
P60
6 rigs
Source: Adapted from the 4th balance of PAC 2, 2012
BrasfelsShipyard
P-57 (Jubarte)
P-56 (Marlim Sul)
P-61
6 rigs
Rio Grande Shipyard
P-55 – modules and topside
8 replicants – hulls
3 rigs
Rio Grande Harbor Shipyard
P-63
P-58
Action completed/operation
Running
Auctioned
Provided
InhaúmaShipyard
Conversion of 4 FPSOs (P-74, P-75, P-76 and P-77)
Onerous Assignment
OSX Shipyard(under construction)
4 hulls (OGX)
5 drillships (BR)
7 WHP (OGX)
Naval Industry with LCPlatforms, drilling rigs, supply boats
Mauá Shipyard – RJ (P-50)BrasFels Shipyard – RJ (P-52)
Sea Brasil – STX - RJ Atlântico Sul Shipyard - PE
Mauá Shipyard – RJ (P-50)BrasFels Shipyard – RJ (P-52)
Rio Grande Shipyard - RS
Policies for Competitiveness
REPETRO: Tax Incentive for Temporary Admissionso To boost the building of drilling rigs, vessels and oil
platforms in Brazilian shipyards;o One of the biggest federal tax incentives of Brazil ;o US$ 26 billion in tax exemption from 2001 to 2010;o Federal Government is willing to expand REPETRO
benefits to other levels of local oil & gas supply chain;
REPORTO: Tax Incentive for Ports Infrastructure (MP 353/2012)
oTo boost the modernization and expansion of ports andrailways;oTax exemption of US$103.5 million (2012) and US$136.7million (2013);
Update of Local Content Regulationo Resolution ANP nº 36/2007 – update the methodology ofmeasurement LC – Publication in May;o Resolution ANP nº 39/2007 – deeply detailing the activitiesthat fit on each line of the Investment Reports –Public Consultation in July.
Prioritization of Sectors Related to Exploration and Development
Rel
evan
cy o
f the
dem
and
Higher
Priority matrixSubsea
EquipmentSubsea Services
(instalation)
Modules and
Topsides
Drilling and OSVs
Source: Public policies for socio-economic development through investments in offshore E&P - Bain & Company, 2012Courtesy: IBP / Bain & Company
Rel
evan
cy o
f the
dem
and
Lower
Lower Higher
Socio-Economic Attractiveness
(HT)
Drilling and completion
(HT)
OSVs
Investimentos Locais
Concessionários
3rd part certification
Investimentos Locais
Aquisições de bens e serviços locaisANP – fiscaliza e audita os contratos
3rd part certification
Local Content in numbers3rd part certification
Activity area Certificates
Geology and Geophysics 2128
Drilling Rigs 622
Logistic and Operational Support 6257
Well Drilling, Completion and Assessment 9092
Basic Engineering and Detailing 623
Management, Construction, Assembly and Commissioning 431
Electrical, Control, Instruments and Measurement Systems 1186
Telecommunication Systems 51
2009-2012
23,042 certificates
Local Content: R$ 16,3 billion
Telecommunication Systems 51
Oil and Gas Pipelines and Storage Tanks 441
Transfer Pumps 53
Compression Units 58
Electric Power Generation Units 129
Steam Generation and Injection Units 25
Water Treatment and Injection Units 169
Underwater Equipments and Control 262
Monobuoys and Mooring System 0
Oil Processing and Treatment System 55
Natural Gas Processing and Treatment System 5
Ship Building 75
Operational Safety 684
Civil Works and Utilities 697
o 60-70% of Local Content
o Highest technology
o Brazil can become an exporter
40%
Local Content – Investments declaredSubsea Technology
60%
Drilling rings Others
GovernGovern
Innovate to competeCompeting for growth
Brazilian Program for Competitiveness
Increase LC and productivity of the O&G industry
Fostering innovation and technologicaldevelopment in the supply chain;
NOCNOC
R&D centers
R&D centers
TrainningTrainningServicesServices
IOCIOC
IndustryIndustryExtending qualification (with a focus onengineering);
Promoting the internationalization ofBrazilian companies, attracting foreigninvestment and encouraging technologicaltransference;
Competitiveness
Develop productive and technologicalpoles according regional characteristics.
Summary
Brazil and Petroleum Sector Evolution1
3
Current Scenario and Perspectives 2
Local Content4
ANP Bidding-rounds5
Final Comments6
Pre-salt3
The 11th Bidding Round
Basin State Area (km 2)
Foz do Amazonas AP 44,500
Pará-Maranhão PA, MA 4,616
Barreirinhas MA 13,074
Ceará CE 7,388
Potiguar CE, RN 7,326
289 blocks in 11 states
Pernambuco-Paraíba PE, PB 6,291
Espírito-Santo ES 4,330
Parnaíba MA, PI 59,764
Sergipe-Alagoas AL 733
Recôncavo BA 475
Tucano Sul BA 6,455
Potiguar RN 588
Espírito-Santo ES 179
Total area: 155,718 km 2 or 60,123 sq. milesEvaluation of the offers: Signature
Bonus, Local Content and Minimum Work Program (MWP)
Equatorial Margin
Shallow and deep-water areas – 75.6 M km 2: Opportunities for oil companies and suppliers
Equatorial Margin
Foz do Amazonas
Pará-Maranhão
Potiguar
Ceará
Barreirinhas
12th Bidding Round (30 and 31/10/13)
Natural Gas onshore
Parnaíba Basin“Gaviões” Park
Opportunities for electric power generation
Acre Basin
Parecis BasinTeles Pires River
São Francisco BasinBuritizeiro County
Paraná BasinBarra Bonita field Recôncavo Basin
Pending approval from CNPE
Sergipe-Alagoas Basin
1st Pre-salt Bidding Round(28 and 29/11/13)
Production sharing regime
Signature Bonus, MWP and LC
Defined in Tender Protocol
% OF PROFIT OIL% OF PROFIT OIL
?% BID PARAMETER
The winner best offer!
Petrobras as operator with at least 30% participation.
Summary
Brazil and Petroleum Sector Evolution1
3
Current Scenario and Perspectives 2
Local Content4
ANP Bidding-rounds5
Final Comments6
Pre-salt3
Final comments
Brazil is resuming bidding-rounds for O&G exploration and p roduction,reaffirming the LC policy;
The Country is aware of the scale of its opportunities, there fore it triesto use the O&G sector to boost the industrial development, us ing theLocal Content policy;
This means Brazil has not only opportunities for O&G compani es, butalso opportunities for suppliers, mainly for those that are willing toestablish themselves in Brazil;
The resuming of Brazilian bidding rounds, opening the Equat orialMargin, the pre-salt and the search for gas onshore in enormo us basinscan give a good idea of the size of the country’s potential;
Foreign expertise and investments are welcome (as long as incompliance with Brazilian main goals for the sector).
National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofu els – ANP
Av. Rio Branco, 65 – Centro – Rio de Janeiro – Brasil
12º to 22º andar
Phone : +55 (21) 2112-8100 Phone : +55 (21) 2112-8100
www.anp.gov.br
A importância do conhecimento das bacias sedimentares brasileiras
As aquisições sísmicas realizadas pelasEAD´s a partir da flexibilização domonopólio foram fundamentais para adescoberta do Pré-Sal.
Sísmica pré-1998
Sísmica até 2002
Sísmica atual
Investimentos Locais Declarados
– Fase de Exploração
BIDInvestimentos Declarados
Total (bilhões R$) Local (bilhões R$)
BID 01 4,82 2,95
BID 02 15,66 11,64
BID 03 7,66 5,79
BID 04 4,18 3,42
Do Bid 1 ao Bid 10 cerca de
R$70 bilhões de
investimentos na fase de
exploração. R$45 bilhões
declarados como conteúdo
BIDInvestimentos Declarados
Total (bilhões R$) Local (bilhões R$)
BID 07 10,84 5,48
BID 09 7,90 3,89
BID 10 0,52 0,45
Total 19,26 9,81
BID 04 4,18 3,42
BID 05 4,76 2,96
BID 06 11,95 8,25
Total 49,04 35,02
declarados como conteúdo
local.
Sendo R$9,8 bilhões em
investimento local
declarado dentro das regras
com exigência da
certificação de CL.
Why invest in Brazil?
26
56
58
354
Paper and Cellulose
Automotive
Mining
Oil and Gas
Investments2012-2015
Source: BNDES. Study: Visão do Desenvolvimento nº 100 – April, 2012
7
11
14
21
25
25
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Aerospace
Industrial Health
Textile
Steel
Electronics
Chemical
R$ billion
Oil and Gas: 63%