Restaurant Trends: Aaron Allen & Associates

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SHIFTING TECTONIC PLATES

AARONALLEN 25 TRENDS TO WATCH

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The tectonic plates of the restaurant industry are shifting at a faster rate than in decades prior. The Fast Casual segment is growing at a faster rate than the industry overall and is cannibalizing others (currently generating around $20b annually but projected to hit $100b within a decade). QSRs are acting more like Fast Casual and are up-scaling their products, guest experience and pricing. Restaurants in general are acting more like grocery stores and grocery stores more like restaurants; Home Meal Replacement is the battleground. The casual dining players performing the best are migrating up the pricing continuum to make more room for Fast Casual and protect eroding margins. The unit economics have fundamentally and forever changed. The worst place to be in the restaurant industry today is the Casual Dining segment with a check average of less than $20. There’s much more at play here and it’s important stuff. (We do half-day seminars on the subject.)

© 2012, Aaron Allen www.aaronallen.com

THE SHRINKING BOX

Doing more with less has been a recession-era mantra for restaurants, especially when it comes to the unit’s footprint. Downsizing with a special emphasis on design innovation has become commonplace in chain concepts, as well as independents, with both operating with less square footage than ever before.

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Photo Credit: Aaron Allen


WHOLE COOKERY

The “Whole Cookery” serving style focuses on an all-inclusive experience to tantalize your taste buds and appreciate every piece of the animal. At Cask & Larder in Winter Park, Florida, you get your own dedicated Chef for the evening, and he or she delivers the whole animal to your table. The Whole Cookery Feast includes a starter course, sides & dessert.

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Photo Credit: http://www.caskandlarder.com/



MICRO-REVIEWS

Gone are the days where a restaurant’s reputation could be decided by a single critic. Nowadays that job belongs to a cast of thousands, and with it comes the responsibility of online reputation management.

Before, customers would tell a few friends and neighbors; now they tweet 10,000 from the table through pictures and commentary.

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Photo Credit: http://twitter.com/Yardy_Shannon


SPICY VODKA INFUSIONS

Infused vodkas are a staple in most restaurants these days. Cherry, orange, maybe even a blackberry if you’re lucky. But what about bacon? Watermelon-jalapeño? Habanero?

Restaurants like Croce’s in San Diego have stepped outside the norm and started to play with bolder ingredients. The bacon and ghost chili infused vodka (one of the hottest peppers known to man) is the fiery secret ingredient in the restaurant’s complex Bloody Mary.

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Photo Credit: http://www.croces.com/



PHILOSOPHICAL RESTAURANTS

Ubuntu: It’s a humanist philosophy focusing on people’s allegiances and relations with each other. It emphasizes community, sharing and generosity ~ essentially, the essence of being human. It’s also the name of a restaurant/wine shop/yoga studio in NYC.

Restaurants are extending their missions beyond just good food, good service, and good atmosphere. It goes beyond the customer and includes providing a sustainable workplace environment, as well as an interconnectedness with their providers and local communities.

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Photo Credit: http://ubuntunapa.com/Ubuntu-story/



INSTAGRAM IT

A picture is worth… well… a lot these days. Instagram’s following has increased over 400% in the last seven months to 80 million users, and some of the most influential chefs and restaurateurs are taking advantage of the boom.

New York City's Comodo restaurant has capitalized on this foodie trend by launching an Instagram menu. By taking advantage of photos customers have snapped and hash tags, the Comodo has assembled a collection of some of their most popular dishes. Favorites? The swordfish ceviche, seared duck breast and poblano pepper pasta.

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Photo Credit: http://extragr.am/chefjgv, http://tinyurl.com/cpveseh



RETRO COCKTAILS

Retro cocktails such as the classic Martini, Sidecar, Gimlet, Manhattan and Tom Collins are back in vogue. Media, advertising, and popular hit television shows such as Mad Men are all celebrating the past in ways like never before.

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Photo Credit: http://strandedfoodie.com/2012/11/stranded-foodie-thanksgiving-pear-ginger-sidecar-cocktail-recipe/



ON-SITE GARDENS

The path from farm to table might be shorter than you think. More chefs are turning to neighborhood--and even rooftop--gardens to procure the freshest of ingredients.

Take Bell Book & Candle on NYC’s west side. Their seasonal menu revolves around local, organic, sustainable and overall responsible procurement. The menu cycles are seasonal and heavily influenced on production from the aerophonic roof-top tower garden.

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Photo Credit: http://www.bbandcnyc.com



COMMUNITY-OWNED

Community members invest in a local collective business because it works to serve their needs. And keeping it local not only focuses on the needs of the community but can be a powerful driver for social change. Seen as a plus by consumers, community-owned businesses keep it “all in the family,,” so to speak.

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Photo Credit: http://www.standard.co.uk/incoming/article7599694.ece/ALTERNATE

S/w460/Co+ophttp://www.goinglocal-info.com/.a/6a00d8357edf6c69e20120a921e02e970b-320wi



GOURMET DOUGHNUTS

The doughnut has dropped its humble origins and finds a gourmet side with flavors like pistachio, banana-salted caramel, and hazelnut praline. New fillings include crème brulee and maple bacon, even whiskey and foie gras at LA’s UMAMIcatessen.

International takes on doughnuts are gaining popularity, too, with European style kolaches, Turkish lokmas, Portuguese malasadas, and French Kouign-amann.

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Photo Credit: http://doritedonuts.com, http://tinyurl.com/a2ant5u



PSYCHOGRAPHIC HIRING

Psychographic hiring goes beyond skills, and zeroes in on recruiting people on the basis of their attitudes and tastes. How do these individuals view themselves? Employers are looking to hire like-minded people in restaurants like Seasons 52, where employees buy into a healthy lifestyle and are all part of the mission statement.

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Photo Credit: https://www.facebook.com/seasons52/photos_stream



HOLD THE FUSS

With a full-throttle emphasis on natural, simple, and fresh ingredients, chefs are finding that less is more. Less sauces, less processing and less calories are making these straight-forward menu offerings more nutritious and flavorful, with less guilt for consumers.

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Photo Credit: http://www.dmagazine.com



CAUSE MARKETING

Consumers gravitate towards brands that reflect how they see themselves. So places like Starbucks not only engages in causes that tie into the brand’s promise but do so in a seamless way.. Judging from the public’s warm embrace of Starbucks cause marketing, many see something of themselves here.

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Photo Credit: http://starbucks.com


MINIMALISM

Less is more is taking center stage in restaurant décor as well as the more simplistic center-of-plate offerings. Restaurant interiors are less fussy with a nod towards sleeker, more modern looks. Design elements set out to expose the essence or identity of the restaurant through eliminating all non-essential forms, features or concepts. These days, the simpler the elements, the bigger the effect.

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Photo Credit: http://www.thecoolist.com/restaurant-design-10-amazing-temples-of-cuisine/



DOGGIE DINING

More and more restaurants are becoming dog friendly in the same way that they have become kid friendly over the years. With 70 million dog owners in the U.S. alone, it’s no wonder restaurants and hotels are loosening their pet restrictions and cashing in. In some operations, not only are dogs allowed, there are separate menus catering to their every whim.

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Photo Credit: http://www.gasparsgrotto.com



COFFEE PAIRINGS

Forget wine and cheese. This year you are more likely to have your cheese paired with coffee. Food writer James Chatto touts coffee from the breakfast table straight through dessert, comparing it to wine in its complexity and versatility.

At Splendido, a fine dining establishment in Ontario, coffee is just as complex an accompaniment to food as wine. Just as a wine maker uses fermentation to dramatically effects the taste of wine, a coffee expert creates a unique product by roasting coffee to a variety of levels.

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Photo Credit: http://nycmugged.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/1993-David-and-Martha-Dallis.jpg



GYPSY KITCHENS

Kitchens are popping up in places never imagined. Underground supper clubs and off the grid secret locales all add a sense of excitement and discovery to the already alluring and evolving culinary landscape. This air of mystery and secrecy plays directly to the consumers heightened sense of discovery.

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Photo Credit: http://velocult.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/supperclubopening.jpg


HOUSE SODAS & HEIRLOOM BEVERAGES

Do-it-yourself soda kits have made it easier for both the home cook and restaurateur to build their own beverage.

Some restaurants are perking up their menus simply by bringing fresh ideas to the beverage section. At Dat Dog in New Orleans, patrons can order nectar infused soda with a splash of chardonnay. Other flavors popping up on drink menus: lavender-vanilla, tangerine, and persimmon.

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Photo Credit: http://www.torontolife.com/daily/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/may12Soda.jpgPhoto Credit: http://l.yimg.com/ea/im_siggkuPuL8Vuf9djvGwT5HjxaQ---x240-q80/img/-/110510/

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CLANDESTINE DINING

Want to really experience a foodie’s ultimate head trip: eat in the dark. In customers’ unrelenting search for the new and different, gourmands find a little bit of darkness brings the lightness of being to their favorite pastime. Not fit for the masses, but for a select few, it’s nirvana.

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Photo Credit: http://opaque.com



NUTRITIONAL DISCLOSURES

With the popularity of apps like ‘Lose it,’ which allows people to quickly track daily food consumption, consumers are demanding more nutritional information. And that puts the burden of compliance squarely in the hands of restaurateurs. This can be costly and time consuming, but foodservice operators need to stay ahead of the curve.

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Photo Credit: http://caloriecount.com, http://www.loseit.com/



iPAD MENUS

iPads are turning up everywhere, so it’s no surprise restaurants would be turning to the iPad as a way to bring today’s menu offerings to its clientele. There are numerous upsides to using iPads and other methods of digital paper, including the halo of being “with it,” as well as the environmental “greenness” of the choice.

Outback Steakhouse co-founder Chris Sullivan sees not just current novelty but future potential in the iPad, and is investing his fortune and know-how in this trend.

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Photo Credit: http://www.apple.com/ipad/business/profiles/carmel-cafe/



WIRELESS PAYMENT

Money is slowly but surely becoming a thing of the past, at least when it comes to cash on hand. Wireless payments have surpassed the green stuff in a big way and are being utilized not only in online transactions but in virtually all points of commerce. Restaurateurs are not exempt, and those who have not embraced this mode of payment should reconsider..

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Photo Credit: http://technology.inc.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Google-mobile-payment-2.jpg



THE SNACK OCCASION

With an emphasis on smaller, more frequent meals, the foodservice industry has given birth to a fourth day part: snack time. Consumer’ mid-afternoon need or desire for a pick-me-up helps feed the pipeline, which simultaneously fattens the bottom line.

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© 2012, Aaron Allen

AMERICANS WILL START TO SPEND MORE AS A % OF INCOME

With an economy that continues to tighten the screws on the middle class, it was only matter of time until Americans were forced to spend more as a percentage of income. For the poor, this is nothing new, but for the vast majority of Americans, the shifting reality is something new playing out daily.

Source: BRS/USDA, Euromonitor Data, complied July 2012, data for 2009Data represents money spent on food at home

www.aaronallen.com

BONUS TRENDS

We believe hospitality is about always giving a little extra, so here's our version of a "bakers dozen."

Photo Credit: http://www.rdspos.com/portals/0/Images/ncr%20aloha%20pulse.png

Photo Credit: http://www.retailresellernews.com/July_09_2012/Posiq-Analytics-7-9-12.jpg

ANALYTICS/KPI’s

Restaurateurs are analyzing more data than ever before through KPI’s, or key performance indicators. Virtually everything can be analyzed and quantified, from an employee’s performance to pizza delivery’s stats. A deep dive into an operations’ analytics reveals all sorts of usable information in real time, information that translates into time and money savings.

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INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY & TRADEMARKSFollowing on the heels of anti-smoking and nutritional laws, the legal system is taking aim at intellectual property and trademarks. Moving forward, restaurateurs will have to take greater care protecting properties and trademarks, including recipes and trade dress. It pays to be proactive on this so that years of sweat and hard work aren’t stolen by a copycat with a thumb drive.

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Photo Credit: http://www.schneidermike.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/mcdowells-

mcdonalds.png© 2012, Aaron Allen www.aaronallen.c

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GROCERY STORES CLAW BACK CUSTOMERS

The grocery and foodservice industries have been locked in a competition for share of dollar for as long as anyone can remember. While restaurants have gained market share in recent decades, grocery businesses have had enough and are pulling out all the stops to reduce the trend.

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FARMS VERSUS GOLD

With the world’s population growing at an unprecedented rate, it will take a 25% increase in food agriculture production to keep pace. Because farms are shrinking at the same time food consumption is increasing, farmland is good as gold. In the future, farmland will become even more precious. After all, if you can’t eat, who cares about gold?

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Photo Credit: http://images.teamsugar.com/files/upl1/1/15259/41_2008/Top-

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CELEBRITY FARMER

Thanks to local celebrity chefs, many farmers are enjoying newfound rock star status. With farmers’ names featured on menus, farmers’ food celebrated in tasting demonstrations, and a growing presence in media and viral, these farmers are learning the value of their own brands.

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Restaurant Trends: Aaron Allen & Associates