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€uro Illusions
€uro-Party
Loans to Households and Nonfinancial Corporations as a
% GDP 1998 vs. 2008
Two Years Later after EFSF, EFSM, IMF, ECB Intervention
Banks are Crucial in Europe
Debt as in WW2
Possible Scenarios high economic growth, EU grows out of debt dramatic increase in taxes, dramatic cuts in
social benefits and pensions – debt repayment
defaults - Nordic €, decomposition of EMU? – New Deutsche Mark? SK in or out? Plan B?
inflation (Quantitative Easing or similar facility of buying bonds for new money produced by ECB, LTROs)
transfer union / fiscal centralization – “fiscal compact”, redistribution of wealth and losses among EU countries, ESM, moral hazard, tragedy of the commons, central planning, slow growth, instability – nationalism, no real “European citizen”
EFSF Guarantees as % of Public Revenues – Burden on Economy in
Convergence Process
www.EuroKriza.sk
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