Social Media RoI: Stop. Don't Run Away! (Debjani Deb speaks at IIR Measure Up Conference, 6-8 Jun 11, Boston)

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Social Media ROI: Stop. Don’t Run Away!

Debjani DebManaging Partner

11EmPower Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. Listen. Learn. EmPower Listen. Learn. EmPower

Managing Partner

Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Your Consumers are Online Today

14% 21% 31%66% 14% 21% 31%

Of online Americans now

use social media

14% either publish a blog/ web page or upload video

21% post ratings or comments in online forums

31% update social

networking sitesuse social media

Travel Apparels Personal Care Food/Beverages Groceries

HOW MANY TURN TO SOCIAL MEDIA WHEN MAKING PURCHASES

28% 26% 18% 26% 17%

Sources: www.sanfranciscosentinel.com, www.blogs.forrester.com, Knowledge Networks – May 2010

2EmPower Research LLC. All Rights Reserved. Listen. Learn. EmPower

CONSUMERS ARE EXPRESSING OPINIONS ON

Paths to success

OPINIONS ON BRANDS/PRODUCTS/SERVICES AND LEARNING ABOUT THEM

not yet laid out

THIS RESULTS IN SEVERAL OPTIONS FOR INVESTMENT/ SPEND

ROI is still murky

SPEND

THEREBY INCREASING THE PRESSURE TO EMBRACE THIS NEW MEDIUM

Cause and effect is not well

thought out


IN NEXTIN NEXT

MINUTES WE WILL DISCUSSMINUTES WE WILL DISCUSS…CURRENT ISSUES OF SOCIAL MEDIA MEASUREMENT

THE PURCHASE FUNNEL AND HOW IT RELATES TO SM

BLUEPRINT TO EFFECTIVE MEASUREMENT USING SM


The Marketing Spend Scenario Today

Most marketing

$$$$$$$$

Most marketing dollars are spent today on the first

$$$$$$$$

2 steps of the purchase funnel

LoyaltyLoyalty


But measuring awareness and interest does not ghelp. The core measurement issue today…

Relevance CFOs are not convinced by absolute measure such as these.

CFOs are not convinced by absolute measure such as these.

Leadership will not be content when results are

conveyed as re-tweets, fans

DASHBOARDS

Metrics need to reflect

conveyed as re tweets, fans or number of followers

SITE STATISTICSimpact on purchase intent,

purchase and loyalty

SITE STATISTICS


Copyright Howard McWilliam. Produced with prior consent

Fact 1: External and Internal Stimuli Shaping Brand Perceptions are Captured in Social Media

EngagementAdvertisements Advocacy

Online Outreach

Changing brand ti fl t d i perceptions reflected in

social media by voice of the consumer


Fact 2: Investments Made at the Top of Purchase Funnel are Reflected at the Bottom of Purchase Funnel

$$$$$$$$

$$$$$$$$ 1$$$$$$$$Higher

Purchase Intent

1

Intent

2LoyaltyLoyalty

Higher Sales and Loyalty


So How Can We Use Social Media Data To Measure

BYTES + BRAINS

Aggregate at Large

Harness Online

Identify InfluencersOnline

OpinionInfluencers

11 22

Aggregation of Universe

Understanding Opinion Leaders

Insights


How Does One Aggregate at Large?

Aggregation of unqualified chatter using

Stage -1Stage -1

Aggregation of unqualified chatter using tools

Stage -2Stage -2

Filter by using semantic rules as such as proximity, NLP or sentiments etc.

Stage -3Stage -3

Filter by using stratified random sampling for sub-populations that vary considerably

Stage -4Stage -4

Analysts led tagging for themes, tonality, demographic profile etc.


Analysis Analysis

Nuts and Bolts of Purchase Intention

Price +ve

UtilitI Neutral-veUtilityImage


Case in Point: Patient Consideration in Real Time

HiThe launch of

Product A lost some its sheen owing to negative chatter on

Product BProduct B

negative chatter on its price even when

it was highly recommended by opinion leaders. ar

enes

sopinion leaders.

This resulted in higher purchase

intent/consideration

Product A

Product AA

wa

Lointent/consideration for competitor that was still in pipeline. Interest

Lo

-Ve +Ve

Size of the bubble indicative of intent


Size of the bubble indicative of intent

An Example of How Purchase Intent Metrics Impact Returns

Share of VoiceShare of Voice

5050

For a particular cereal brand, it was found that 10

20

30

40

10

20

30

40

was found that while moms had high awareness, it did not result

i t l Actual Purchase Intention Actual Purchase Intention

0

Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E

0


in actual purchase intent owing to poor

perceived

Actual Purchase Intention Actual Purchase Intention

40

50

60

40

50

60

pnutritional value

0

10

20

30


0

10

20

30



Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand EBrand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E

An Example of How Loyalty Metrics Impact Returns

Increase in Awareness Sentiment

The Greenpeace movement

against Leading Ch l t B d

Negative Chocolate Brand created a lot of interest for the

brand.

Sentiment

Interestingly, many more first time customers

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

Loyalist First timers

time customers bought the brand.

Switchers


Social Media can Provide a Lead Indicator for Sales

Lag DataLag Data IntegratedInsights

IntegratedInsights

Marketing Data Promo Data

Sales Data

1gg

Social Media Lead Data

Sales Data

3

AwarenessAwareness Interest Interest Purchase

IntentPurchase

Intent

22


Case in Point: Reasoning for Sales Fluctuations

The above result explains that negative

Social media sentiment can be

used as a lead indicator for the

SALES

p gsentiments in the previous months had some effect on sales performance.

indicator for the point of sale data.

Social media can explain the drivers explain the drivers and the ‘why’ of the peaks and troughs

for sales dataMon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6 Mon 7Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6 Mon 7

Brand’s Negative Sentiments


Statistical Analysis Reveals Competitor’s Promotion Efforts and Its Negative Conversation Influences Brand Sales

Competitor promotion spend

Competitor’s negative tonality increased sales

Competitor promotion spend affected sales performance in a negative way

SALES

SALES

Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6 Mon 7

SALES

Competitor Promotion Spend Competitor Negative Tonality

Mon 1 Mon 2 Mon 3 Mon 4 Mon 5 Mon 6 Mon 7


The Mom’s Index a Way to Understand Intent at the Segment Level

Moms TeensMillennials

Purchase Intent

Sales

Understand Mom’s outlook towards a category including purchase intent of purchase intent of brands within the

category relative to each other

Understand teens perception of a

brand. This index also lends itself to

Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6

also lends itself to understanding segment based drivers for sales


In Conclusion

Social Media lends itself well towards learning about marketing impact

But focus on pure awareness as a measure is not enough to justify spending

True impact/ROI can be measured if purchase intent loyalty and sales canTrue impact/ROI can be measured if purchase intent, loyalty, and sales can be measured

The voice of the stakeholder is a powerful learning tool that brands should use to

empower and tweak marketing strategies


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Social Media RoI: Stop. Don't Run Away! (Debjani Deb speaks at IIR Measure Up Conference, 6-8 Jun 11, Boston)