Unfinished estates, housing and spatial justice

Rob KitchinRob Kitchin

RIA,  23rd April 2013

Drivers/enablers of the bubble• Demographics

E i th• Economic growth• Neoliberal policy adoption

D l t d fi (d l t & t )– Deregulated finance (development & mortgages)– Tax incentives; tax benefits– Laissez-faire planning/over-zoningLaissez faire planning/over zoning– Rolled back on Part V - forego social/affordable obligations – Pro-growth, market-led, state facilitated, zero-sum development– Self-regulated construction industry

• Cronyism, clientelism and localism• Speculator capitalism (buy to let, buy to flip)• Consumer panic (getting on the ladder)• Tax generation (VAT, stamp duty, capital gains,

development levies)

80000

90000

100000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Huge growth 10000

20000

30000

40000Huge growth in housing 0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010in housing stock and stock and

house priceshouse prices

th POP!then POP!

five years of unwinding

Residential property price changes 2007-2013

Housing vacancy 2011 (Census)g y ( )

289,581 units

Oversupply c.110,000 (6% base rate)base rate)

9 counties >15% 9 counties 15% vacancy (exc. holiday homes)

Source: CSO

• spatial justice Whereas social justice tends to focus on the inequalities between people, spatial q p p pjustice focuses on the disparities between places. Given the uneven spatial distribution of resources pand rights, with some places better served than others, spatial justice seeks a fairer redistribution. p jSpatial justice also recognizes that some places receive a disproportionate share of harmful p ppractices that exposes the local population to risks, such as the siting of a polluting industry, which it g g yseeks to ameliorate. Oxford Dictionary of Human Geography, 2013, 485Oxford Dictionary of Human Geography, 2013, 485

Unfinished estates: 2 876 (2011)Unfinished estates: 2,876 (2011)

Unfinished estates• Number of unfinished estates 2012: 1,770 (definition change)• 1,100 estates are in a ‘seriously problematic condition’• Only 250 estates (8.5% of 1,770) are active• 16,881 units vacant; 17,032 units still under-construction • 421 estates not liable for property tax (units lacking decent

roads, lighting infrastructure, paving, sewage and water)

Change in occupancy 2010-2011105 (3 6%) t t h d f ll i th l l f• 105 (3.6%) estates had a fall in the level of occupancy

• 1,536 (54%) estates no change in the level of occupancy• 573 had a change of 1-2 ; 287 estates change of 3-5573 had a change of 1 2 ; 287 estates change of 3 5• Vast majority of estates experienced very little change in the

level of occupancy between 2010 and 2011• Top 100 estates (3.5%) with the most positive change in

occupancy accounted for 60.7% of all newly occupied units

Issues with unfinished estates• Completion and maintenancep• Health and safety• Security• Security• Anti-social behaviour• Lack of services and public transport• Building control and planning complianceg p g p• Bonds and finance • Negative equity• Negative equity• Sense of place and community

Build quality and pyrite• Priory Hall q y pyPriory Hall– Out of homes for >18 months– 187 apartments deemed unsafe to live in187 apartments deemed unsafe to live in

• PyriteEstimates 20 60 000 homes– Estimates 20-60,000 homes

– DECLG claims 74 estates with 12,250 unitsunits

sing

hous

ority

h Dublin

autho

cal a

Loc

Limerick

Local authority housing Dublin CC: PPPsy g

Local authority housing Dublin CC: PPPs

Social housing waiting listg gHousing needs 98,318

Homeless persons 2,348

Travellers 1,824

Persons living in accommodation that is unfit or materially unsuitable 1,708

P li i i d d d ti 8 534Persons living in overcrowded accommodation 8,534

Young persons living in institutional care or without family accommodation 538

Persons in need of accommodation for medical or compassionate grounds = 9,548

Older persons 2,266Older persons 2,266

Persons with a disability 1,315

Persons not reasonably able to meet the cost of the accommodation they are occupying or obtain suitable alternative accommodation

65,643

Mortgage arrearsg g

http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stats/mortgagearrears/Documents/2012q4_ie_mortgage_arrears_statistics.pdf

Mortgage arrears Negative equityg g• 792,096 total residential

g q y• 2010:

mortgages in state• 143,851 mortgages in

• 34% of mortgages in negative equity (47.5% in 2011)143,851 mortgages in

arrears (18.2%); 94,488 more 90 days (11.5%)

• 52% of BTL mortgages in negative equitymore 90 days (11.5%)

• Plus 42,031 restructured but not in arrears (term

• Spatial trap• Reduced labour market not in arrears (term

extension, reduced payment interest only)

Reduced labour market mobility

• Restricts recovering market to payment, interest only)• 28,421 (18.9%) BTL

accounts in arrears of more

• Restricts recovering market to FTBs and those not in negative equityaccounts in arrears of more

than 90 days as of Dec 2012 negative equity

% Owner occupied with mortgage

Dublin

CorkGalway

Post 2006 build2001-11 build

blin

Dub

ork

Co

Solutions to housing issuesg

• Slow decline rather than sudden collapseSlow decline rather than sudden collapse• Minimal effort, minimal cost approach that gives

the impression of policy at work but to a large the impression of policy-at-work, but to a large degree pushes the problem down the roadW iti f k t ti• Waiting for market correction

• NAMA, SHLI, SRP, scale back of regeneration• Neoliberalism in, neoliberalism and austerity out

NAMA• The idea behind NAMA was to relieve Irish banks of their

impaired assets providing them with government-backed impaired assets, providing them with government backed bonds which they could use to borrow from the ECB, and thus inject liquidity into the Irish banking system.

• It also had the effect of protecting both the banks and developers from going bust quickly

• €73.6b of loans transferred• 67% of loans relate to Irish development and land• NAMA has paid on average 42.5% of the loan value for the

assets in its portfolio • It’s largely a black box; it’s significantly overshadowing the

property market and its operation• Focus is solely restoring market not spatial justice as with

RTCs in US

Social Housing Leasing Initiativeg g• Launched in September 2009 to complement the work of

NAMANAMA• Ties new social housing supply to market based mechanisms

and the private rental sector and the private rental sector • Properties are rented from the private sector for 20 years, and

used to accommodate households from local authority waiting used to accommodate households from local authority waiting lists.

• Properties are to be tenanted managed and maintained by Properties are to be tenanted, managed and maintained by the local authority, with the rent guaranteed for the whole lease period

• After the twenty year period, the house will revert to the landlord

• Barely makes a dent in social housing waiting list

Site Resolution Plans• Partnership approach to estate completion • All stakeholders (developers, banks, local authorities, residents,

estate management companies, Health and Safety Authority, etc) produce a negotiated plan of actionetc) produce a negotiated plan of action

• Non-mandatory, voluntaristic, deregulated Lack comp lsi e mechanisms • Lack compulsive mechanisms

• Time frames are suggestive not mandatoryN fli t l ti h i• No conflict resolution mechanisms

• Local authorities are being given no additional resourcesL k f fi d i l i i d • Lack of finance and insolvency is ignored

• SRPs are likely to be slow and haphazardf f €• The associated government fund of €5m is a paltry sum

• Focuses on tidying up and health and safety not larger issues

Conclusion• There are a number of pressing spatial justice

issues relating to housing in Ireland– Unfinished estates– Build quality and compliance– Stalled local authority housing projects– Mortgage arrears and negative equity

• The approach to addressing them has largely e app oac to add ess g t e as a ge ybeen a minimal effort, minimal cost effort

• The result is households and communities being The result is households and communities being left to wither on the vine whilst government waits for market correctionfor market correction

• Market correction is not happening any time soon

AIRO – open data/tools to understand crisis

Thanks• Kitchin, R. O'Callaghan, C. and Gleeson, J. (in press) The new ruins of

I l d? U fi i h d t t i th t C lti Ti I t ti l Ireland? Unfinished estates in the post-Celtic Tiger era. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research

• Kitchin, R. (2013) Making informed decisions on future housing policy. , ( ) g g p yHousing Ireland

• Kitchin, R., Gleeson, J. and Dodge, M. (2012) Unfolding mapping practices: A new epistemology for cartography Transactions of the practices: A new epistemology for cartography Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers.

• Kitchin, R., O’Callaghan, C., Boyle, M., Gleeson J. and Keaveney, K. (2012) Placing neoliberalism: The rise and fall of Ireland’s Celtic Tiger. Environment and Planning A 44: 1302 – 1326

• Kitchin, R., Gleeson, J. Keaveney, K. And O’Callaghan, C. (2010) A Kitchin, R., Gleeson, J. Keaveney, K. And O Callaghan, C. (2010) A Haunted Landscape: Housing and Ghost Estates in Post-Celtic Tiger Ireland. NIRSA Working Paper 59.