The Aging Workforce Guide: Finding Success

What future for 50+

workers?

Businessas usual?

Sagacious humancapital?

War fortalent?

How canyou succeed

with 50+ workers?

John B. Mahaffie

Leading Futurists LLC

[email protected]

Dr. Katherine LY Green

Green Consulting Group LLC

[email protected]

50+@Work

© 2011 by Green Consulting Group LLC + Leading Futurists LLC

About this guide

This guide offers you a perspective on, and tools for exploring impacts of the 50+ workforce. The guide will help you discover what the aging workforce could mean to your organization and when it will matter. We offer three scenarios for 2020, tools and insights you can use to have a clearer understanding of your strategic options for success now and in the future.

We urge you to explore this topic with an open mind. Be ambitious, and be ready to get out of your comfort zone and get some new thinking going.

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Your progress bar

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3 ScenariosIntroduction Explore Envision Plan Resources

Throughout this guide, you will see the bar above at the top of each page. It is a quick-view table of contents for the guide. The white part of the bar shows where you are in your progress through the guide.

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© 2011 by Green Consulting Group LLC + Leading Futurists LLC 4

In the struggle for survival, the fittest win out at the expense of their rivals because they succeed in adapting themselves best to their environment.

--Charles Darwin


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Why we need to pay attention to the aging workforce

In 2020, those 65+ will be 22% of the Adult US population

Key facts

Employers have to reckon with an aging workforce that will age yet further:

• The median age of Americans is 36.5, and rising

• The median age in Germany is 44.9 years, and Japan 44.8 years

• In 2020 55 million Americans will be aged 65+

• Labor force participation is up for those 55+, down for those 20-24 since 2001

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Consider how a stronger focus on that cohort could benefit your workforce

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The aging workforce: An emerging issue and opportunity

The workforces in North America, Europe, Japan, and elsewhere are aging rapidly. Employers and employees have yet to come to grips with what these changes mean. Workforce expectations and practices are typically based on past realities and past ideas that don’t match the emerging reality. They need to be updated.

The trend will only intensify. More people will live to older ages, and most retirement planning is inadequate to pay for it. The strain on younger workers to support older people is high and rising. More older people will be at work beyond the traditional retirement age, perhaps into their 70s and beyond. Some will want to be working, and many will have to, for financial reasons. Productive aging, in all its manifestations, gives hope that life after 50 is worth harnessing for social and cultural good.

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What if you don’t do anything?Lack of foresight comes at a cost. What is your organization going to do when:

A significant percent of your core workforce retires early – without warning – when federal entitlement programs are part of the deficit reduction plan?

The leadership pipeline, underfunded for years, doesn’t produce savvy leaders who can triumph during difficult economic times?

New business opportunities require expertise gained only through extensive experience?

Clients request that workers are “plug and play” - no on-the-job training for new recruits at the client’s expense?

Contract renewals stipulate that certain workers, or the skill equivalent, are required but those same workers want flexible work arrangements in order to stay?

HR is over budget, retention rates are low for young upwardly mobile workers, recruitment costs are high, hiring bonuses are limited to executives, and key jobs need to be filled

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The Big Question: How do you change today to ensure a future you want for tomorrow?

How do you change

successful organizations’

human capital strategies;

which, if they continue to

use today, will destine them

to unproductive, low-skilled

or workforce shortages in

the future?

What, how, and so what?

• What - create the business necessity for a new view of and different ways to engage the 50+ worker

• How – by using a variety of foresight tools, enabling a thoughtful examination among key stakeholders, and asking the right questions to surface the challenges and opportunities

• So What - you and your organization can anticipate an emerging future, take actions that will facilitate a preferred future, adjust human capital practices to shifting realities, build age-savvy work cultures, and orient the business to harness the opportunities while mitigating the risks of an aging workforce

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The aging work force: Our perspective

50+@Work is not advocating for hiring 50+ workers as a social program

Older workers are a source of talent and experience in a labor market where those things can be in short supply

It is good for people 50+ to be a valued part of the workforce

They have a combination of economic needs to work, and the desire to be engaged, valued, active, and interested

Organizations, and the people who lead them, would benefit from a clear examination of possible futures with a focus on the 50+ workforce

Organizations’ ongoing success will necessitate updating work culture norms to better assimilate and leverage capacities of an aging workforce and 50+ talent

Green Consulting Group LLC and Leading Futurists LLC offer consulting, workshops, and research and analysis to help organization tailor their work and workforce strategies to the emerging reality of workforce aging

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Introduction to the guide

What follows:

3 scenarios for 2020 of the aging workforce

Explore – understand better how the 50+ workforce will impact your organization

Envision – set your goals for the organization’s future

Plan – Identify potential strategic actions

Resources – additional resources you can use to explore implications of the aging workforce on work, the workforce and business

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Ways to Use this Guidebook

Use foresight to navigate the crossroads when aging workforce issues and opportunities come to a head:

• Facilitate deep thinking among key stakeholders of the inherent opportunities and potential risks poised by an aging workforce

• Assess the business effects of an aging workforce on your organization’s viability and profitability in the short- and long-term

• Create compelling business reasons to adapt human capital practices, policies and working conditions to an age-diverse workforce

• Customize your organization’s response in recruitment, retention, training or separation practices based on your unique challenges, resources and business plan

• Create a talent portfolio with a balanced blend of emerging and experienced skills, knowledge and social networks to fulfill your organization’s strategy

• Create work and work cultures favored by experienced talent with high value-added skills and marketable expertise

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NOW

Introduction to scenariosScenarios are groups of stories about at time in the future

Scenarios encourage a wider, more

variable look atalternatives with

multiple outcomes

Planners may be focused on single outcomes; thinking within traditional and

narrow boundaries

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FUTURE

Scenario

Scenario

ScenarioScenario

Using scenarios helps us make sure not to plan around a single outcome—we can’t really predict the future, so we need to be prepared for a range of possibilities

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Three Scenarios for the 50+ WorkforceThree scenarios offer contrasting views of what’s possible for the 50+ workforce over the next 10 years:

1. Business as Usual 2020 -- Employers change little in how they approach the 50+ workforce

2. War for Talent 2020 -- While not embracing the 50+ workforce overall, employers compete to hire the most talented older workers

3. Sagacious Human Capital 2020 -- Employers and society have changed their attitudes about older workers, embracing their skills, knowledge, and wisdom

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Scenario 1: Business as Usual 2020Employers change little in how they approach the 50+ workforce

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With “Business as Usual” older workers often have marginal roles, not using their true talents


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Scenario 1: Business as Usual 2020Employers change little in how they approach the 50+ workforce

The 2020 Story

Average unemployment rate for older US workers 23% vs. 7.3% for workers under 55

Yet more of the 50+ are underemployed, and working at lower incomes than they did before

More 50+ workers in programs for retraining, exploring job options

More 50+ workers want to and/or must work, especially as people live longer in good health

Continued hiring discrimination, longer gaps between employment, lack of career advancing opportunities, reduced salaries upon finding a job, minimal training and re-training opportunities

More older workers are opting to retire to take advantage of entitlements before they change

Rising entrepreneurship for the 50+ reflects a desire to keep working, earning, and being active

Policymakers have been unable to foster much change in employer attitudes.

With “Business as Usual” older workers often have marginal roles, not using their true talents


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Scenario 2: War for Talent 2020While not embracing the 50+ workforce overall, employers compete to hire the most talented older workers

In the “War for Talent,” the most talented of any age are sought after


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Scenario 2: War for Talent 2020While not embracing the 50+ workforce overall, employers compete to hire the most talented older workers

The 2020 Story

Human asset professionals recognize that there is a war for talent in the employment marketplace

The war for talent means employers compete to attract and keep a cadre of top talent that is 50 and older

This war is an expensive, no-holds-barred struggle to get and keep the high performers, companies willing to pay for that talent win

Organizations customize recruitment and retention strategies for high performers in the 50+ age group

Employers’ priority had been mainly retaining only select workers beyond the typical retirement age

It’s not unusual any more for employers to hire someone who is 60 or 65 years old. But they are highly desirable talent—expensive free agents who have a lot of options in the marketplace

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In the “War for Talent,” the most talented of any age are sought after


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Scenario 3: Sagacious Human Capital 2020

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Employers and society have changed their attitudes about older workers, embracing their skills, knowledge, and wisdom


Organizational strength comes from having all generations valued and engaged in the workforce

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Scenario 3: Sagacious Human Capital 2020Employers and society have changed their attitudes about older workers, embracing their skills, knowledge, and wisdom

A 2020 Story

Older workers are a substantial and growing share of the workforce in the US

Cutting-edge employers recognize older workers as a strategic asset and even compete with employers overseas for talent

One out of every five workers in the US labor force is aged 55+

New performance metrics help account for the value of knowledge/wisdom, judgment, creativity, and problem solving

Older workers raise some costs, but employers can get the costs back in revenue growth, customer retention, and productivity

Employers’ motivation has been recapturing and using talent that just a few years ago was pushed out


Organizational strength comes from having all generations valued and engaged in the workforce

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Connecting insights to strategy: four steps

Identify your rationale – Why your organization needs to change its strategy with and for the 50+ workforce

Explore the issue – Fit this thinking to your situation. Collect ideas about the 50+ workforce, apply to your organization’s human capital strategies, assess impact on the organization, anticipate how conditions may change

Envision your success – Decide where you should go, and want to go in the next 10 years: What should your 50+ workforce strategy be? How will an age-balanced talent portfolio support strategic success?

Plan – With your vision in hand, identify the key strategic moves and particular actions you can take now, and going forward, to reach success

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Identify your rationaleUse these questions to assess timing and impact for your organization

What is your current age mix ?

What is the current, and projected, demographic profile of the regional labor pool?

What percentage of your workers are eligible to retire in the next 1, 3, and 5 years?

What is the current retention rate for your 50+ workers?

Which of your strategic objectives would be negatively impacted if current retention rates hold?

What strategies do you have to capture and transfer critical institutional knowledge?

Which of your policies and procedures encourage 50+ workers to remain employed, engaged and productive?

Are your managers trained to manage, give feedback and lead an age-diverse workforce?

Is your organization an employer of choice for 50+ workers? What examples can you give when recruiting or retaining experienced workers?

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Rising

retire-

ment

attrition

Work

disrup-

tion

Higher

recruit-

ment

costs

Skewed

age

compo-

sition

Skill

gaps

Re-

duced

produc-

tivity

Quality

issues

Stress

on staffWorker

stress

Higher

training

costs

Future

waves

of

attrition

Explore the issueThe Futures Wheel:Example

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xxxxx

Further

attrition


What’s it for?Expand thinking, develop connections among disparate ideas, grasp the complexity of an idea.

The Futures Wheel was invented by Futurist Jerome Glenn, Cofounder and Director, UN Millennium Project

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Issue/-

Trend

Explore the issueThe Futures Wheel:Looking for impacts in our organization

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How to Use: Print a copy of this page, or start a Futures Wheel on a notepad or whiteboard. Start with an initial idea, in the middle, and think about its implications (inner ring). Then consider the implications of the inner ring ideas.

Continue to fill in outer circles to gain a deeper understanding of the issue.


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WORKSHEET: The Futures Implications Matrix Issue, trend:NursingWorkforce Now In the next 10 years

Challenges •Middle-aged and aging workforce•Growing difficulty with labor intensive aspects of jobs•Many want to retire•Skilled nursing care shortage

•Younger, less skilled workforce•Larger workforce due to expected growth in health care sector•Different skill needs for nursing care with an older, more ethnically diverse client base• Skilled care likely to occur in non-traditional settings

Opportunities •Make job accommodations to reduce impact of heavy lifting with lifting teams and technical changes to beds•Offer retention bonus to keep some staff on the job•Use veteran nurses as mentors for new hires

•Time to train and develop broader nursing skill set•Utilize alternative delivery systems for health care: community-based para-nurses, mobile medical centers, telemedicine•Use retirees as temps when care needs cycle high

Explore the issueThe futures implications matrix--Example

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What’s it for? Expand thinking into the future, fosters open views of opportunities, encourages connections between current and future state, demonstrates that many things change over time rather than remain constant

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WORKSHEET: The Futures Implications Matrix

Issue, trend: ___________ Now

In the next 10 years

Challenges

Opportunities

Explore the issueThe futures implications matrix

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How to Use: Print this page, or draw a matrix for yourself. Select an idea, issue or trend. Consider current challenges and opportunities assuming conditions of today (both positive and negative)

Then look ten years out –What challenges and opportunities may be present? Include those that continued from the prior 10 years, and those that didn’t exist but could emerge in the next ten.

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Envision your success

What would success look like?

Can you envision a better, more successful future with the 50+ workforce?

What is your compelling future story?

The challenge we urge you to undertake is to “think big thoughts” at this point

The diagram on the next page shows realms of success. We say, don’t just do the near-at-hand, easy stuff—the “low hanging fruit”

Note please! You should be a bit ambitious and courageous— push the boundary and see how far can you get!

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Low-Hanging Fruit

• Age-neutral hiring• Diversity training• Job-sharing• Language use policies

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Getting serious

• Ending mandatory retirement• Age-blind hiring• Active recruitment of 50+, 60+• Enter the war for talent

Big Systems

• Transforming retirement finances• Society changes its views of aging and

worklife• Productive aging engages people 70+

Envision your success• How high can you aim?• Can you get beyond the

low-hanging fruit?

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What’s it for?This diagram shows how some actions are smaller, and tactical, some more serious, and impactful. It makes the point, real change means getting beyond the low-hanging fruit

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What is the low-hanging fruit?

In your organization, what are examples of “low-hanging fruit” (easy-to-implement) actions you have taken or could take for greater success with the 50+ workforce? Try to identify at least three.

Example: Include pictures of workers over age 50 in marketing materials.

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Low-Hanging Fruit

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Getting serious

Big Systems

• ____________________________• ____________________________• ____________________________

Envision your successWhat are your low-hanging fruit, getting serious, and big systems?Identify a few items at each level on the diagram

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• ____________________________• ____________________________• ____________________________

• ____________________________• ____________________________• ____________________________


How to usePrint out this page, and add examples from your organization. Be a little audacious—this is a place to try out some bold ideas.

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Envision your successWhere will you be in 2020?

My vision of success with the 50+ workforce. In 2020, these things would be true:

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

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What’s it for?This is your time to really describe what success would look like for your workforce strategies.

How to useNote at least three to five things that summarize what would be true in 2020 if you achieve greater success with the 50+ workforce.


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PlanDeveloping ideas about reaching your vision of success with the 50+ workforce

The next few pages help you consider ideas and next steps for your human capital strategy to reach your vision of success

Explore your organization’s readiness to build new programs and strategies for the 50+ workforce

Use the framework on the following pages to gather elements of a successful strategy

You will describe some outcomes and key areas of focus in your strategy

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PlanPutting together a strategy

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Your Vision of Success

A B C

The unmet need

Identify key strategic pillars to support your vision

Based on your compelling reason for change


What’s it for?This is a model you will use to explore how to reach your vision of success, focusing on key pillars that will support that success.

With your vision in hand

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PlanBuilding a base for your success: Key pillars of your strategy

How to use

Identify 3 or 4 areas you can work on that will make a difference. E.g. training, organizational culture, workforce development, human capital strategy, retention policies

Each pillar should be supported by actions you can take now and soon to build towards your goals, and achieve your vision.

Pillar:______________________

___________________________

Pillar:______________________

___________________________

Pillar:______________________

___________________________

Pillar:______________________

___________________________

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Reaching your goals over the next ten years or so means developing plans and action around some key strategies. Those “pillars” of your overall strategy are the critical support on which you can build a strong program and achieve success.

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PlanExample

Pillar _Training______________________

Pillar Pillar

•Benchmark other organizations’ training programs•Train younger managers how to work effectively with older workers•Interview 50+ staff to assess needs

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What’s it for?This is where you get specific about how you would build and use the Pillars of Success you have identified


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PlanPotential actions to support your pillars

Pillar ________________

Pillar________________

Pillar________________

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How to useAdd your pillars at the tops of the columns. Collect specific ideas for actions you can take to build, leverage, and strengthen the pillar.

Don’t be too cautious here, these are ideas to consider and refine further.


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Plan: Putting it all together

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Your 50+ Workforce Strategy

Pillar: ___________

________________

________________

________________

Pillar: ___________

________________

________________

________________

Pillar: ___________

________________

________________

________________

Why we need to do things differently:____________________________________________________________________________________________________________


What’s it for?For an at-a-glance view of your thinking a visual tool for sharing ideas with others

How to useBring together a summary statement of your vision, your pillars of success, and a clarifying statement of why it’s critical to do things differently in this diagram

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Foresight and your needs: What else can you do?

Understand

critical issues

betterMe

An executive

briefing

A top future insights piece

A briefing or workshop on

this issues’ future

Build Scenarios

with your team

Reports and analysis on:

• Trends in our marketplace

• Emerging issues

• Laws & Regs, government

• Workforce trends

• Etc.Update our strategic

planning

Change minds in

my company

Build new organizational

strategies

Find your critical need (yellow) and follow the arrows to learn what you might do to get started

A “futures

day”/workshop

Engage our

board/leadership

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Engage experts, consultants, facilitators on

foresight and organizational development

We can help!Contact us for more ideas, and let

us know what we can do for you

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Explore the issue furtherHere are some ways to open this exploration up to your colleagues

Foster a collective look and generate answers to the question: what should we be ready for?

Distribute ready to use, self-explanatory tools with examples

Collect and interpret multiple views of what the 50+ workforce means to your organization

Dig deep into possibilities of future impact with The Futures Wheel and Futures Implication Matrix

Assess degrees of impact of possible futures on the organization

Tailor insights from 2020 scenarios to localize the most pressing needs and impactful challenges in your workplace

Anticipate degrees of change and related implications for work, workforce and culture

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Ways We Can Help

Workshops – Exploring the Future of the 50+ Workforce ( .5, 1 or 2 days) –facilitated workshop with key stakeholders to collectively explore impacts of an aging workforce, formulate visions of choice for a desired future, craft strategy to address work, work practices and culture barriers to achieve preferred future

Consulting – range of consulting services including foresight work sessions, futures research and analysis, organization culture surveys, change management consulting, collaborating with HR/OD function to identify appropriate responses to specific, unique human capital challenges of an aging workforce

Training Programs

Intergenerational Teaming

Leading a Multi-Generational Workforce

Mentoring as if Knowledge Mattered

Speaking Engagements – Plenary Keynotes, Retreats, Board Meetings, Professional and Civic Meetings, Conferences, Educational Sessions

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What others are doingA starter list British Telecom recruits a diverse

workforce to reflect their customer base; workers 50+ have access to training, can choose to step down to jobs with less responsibility and lower stress including part-time, and can return, post retirement, temporarily to help out during peak work times

New York Teaching Fellows offers a 7-week training program to enable older workers to switch careers to teaching in an urban setting; once teaching, the Fellows receive additional support to complete their teaching education by earning a master’s degree

SelectMind’s is a provider of corporate networking solutions to keep retirees connected to their prior employers for purposes of mentoring, part-time work, consulting, training or acting as a resource

Dow Safety and Industrial Hygiene tracked workers’ musculoskeletal disorders, tasked a multidisciplinary team to identify a standardized process for identifying and prioritizing key risk factors for injuries and illnesses

Center for Creative Leadership surveyed 3200 workers across four generations about work; they share similar values though express them differently, want respect, value integrity and want opportunities for learning

LL Bean, known for its exemplary service, expands its workforce from 1,500 to 6,000 during peak season relying heavily on older workers because they understand what outstanding customer service means.


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Why We Are a Good Fit and ChoiceLeading Futurists LLC

Dr. Katherine Green started Green Consulting Group LLC as a leadership, change management and aging workforce consultancy in 1999.

In prior work, she held influential HR positions internally and as a consultant in various sectors: finance, transportation, technology, non-profit and Capitol Hill. Her interest in aging workforce issues began as a dissertation, broadened into research and publications for the International Labour Office on employment best practices for older workers, and evolved into years of speaking engagements in Japan, UK and US to professional, civic and business audiences.

This new, exciting phase of work is strategic consulting on the 50+workforce: scenario exploration, staff training, management development, change consulting, leadership and human capital strategy.

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Green Consulting Group LLC

John B. Mahaffie is co-founder and partner in Leading Futurists LLC, a consultancy that helps organizations explore the challenges and opportunities they face as society, technology, and the world change.

John has worked as a futurist since 1987, giving keynote talks, researching and analyzing issues and trends, building scenarios, consulting, and authoring books and articles on the future.

John co-authored Future Work: Seven Critical Forces Shaping Work and the Work Force in North America, Jossey Bass, 1990, and numerous reports and articles on the future of work and worklife.

John’s mission, through his work, is to help people think differently, and face the future, prepared.

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Background and references This guide is the result of a multi-year

collaborative effort between John Mahaffie and Jennifer Jarratt, Leading Futurists LLC, and Dr. Katherine Green, Green Consulting Group LLC.

The collaboration included educating business leaders, in eight US cities, about the benefits of and possible strategies to engage the 50+ workforce

The subject of the 50+ workforce is significant and compelling. Our two companies bring substantial, long-term experience with the topic from our respective disciplines. We speak, consult, conduct research and publish on the issues and implications of a 50+ workforce from many angles. Separately, and together, we enable organizational leaders and their staff to anticipate, plan and execute fitting and appropriate change

Leading Futurists LLC contributes expertise in foresight, futures, trends analysis, and workplace issues. Green Consulting Group LLC specializes in the interplay of human capital, organizational performance and change leadership. The aging workforce has been a professional interest for over two decades

A few other sources provided content for this guide:

Cappelli, Peter, and Bill Novelli, Managing the Older Worker: How to Prepare for The New Organizational Order, Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2010.

Critchley, Robert K., Doing Nothing Is Not An Option: Facing the Imminent Labor Crises, Ohio: Thomson Publishing, 2004.

Hedge, Jerry, Walter C. Borman, and Steven E. Lammlein, The Aging Workforce: Realities, Myths, and Implications for Organizations, Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 2006.


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