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TheFutureofFinance:DigitalCapital,BlockchainandBeyond
Robert RuttmannUniversity of St. Gallen
@RRuttmann
Besuretoengageintheapp:sb16app.com
1)Checkintothesessionbyselectingsession fromtheprogramandselecting'checkin'
2)Poseand'up-vote' questions tobeposedduringQ&A:Insession description, select'submitaquestion'
Agenda
2November2016
1 Thefinancialservicessectorisinthemiddleofafundamentaltransformation
2 Blockchain andcryptocurrencyarekeytocreatinggreaterwealth
3 Whatareblockchain technologyandcryptocurrency?
4 Howwillblockchain challengetoday‘sbusinessmodelfundamentally?
5 Whataretheimportantusecasesofblockchain?
The financial services sector is in the middle of a fundamental transformation
4November2016
We are losing confidence in our financial leaders
1.5milliondepositaccountsand565’000creditcardaccountsopened
– WITHOUTCUSTOMERPERMISSION!!
Music News Books TELCO Movies Travel Retail Automotive Banking Insurance Pharma
Implications for the financial sector are immense
5November2016
It is not a matter of “if”, it is a matter of “when”
“If banks don’t change, we will change banks.”Jack Ma,CEO, Alibaba
Emerging innovations are accelerating a change in consumer behavior
6November2016
New disruptors threaten existing business models
P2P lending
Crowd-funding
Seamless digital
payment
Crypto-currencies
Block-chain
Reg-Tech
Tech-Giants
Roboadvisory
Incumbent
Technology empowering customers
Radical transparency
Demand for hyper customization
Wealth shift to tech-savvy millennials
New realities
Increasing regulatory burden
”Banks are good at creating pain points. Silicon Valley is great at getting rid of them.”
---- Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase & Co
September21,2016 7FutureofFinance:Banksand
Fintech
Physical branch networks are falling fast, while Fintech investment is booming
8November 2016
A shift to a digial arena where innovation drives demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Commercial Bank Branches per 100k Adults By Region
East Asia & Pacific Euro areaLatin America North AmericaNordics Switzerland
In Switzerland, commercial bank branches are set to fall by 50% in just 10 years
1.8 2.1 2.44.0
12.0
19.0
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Over USD 19 billion invested globally in Fintechs in 2015
Fromthreat
toopportunity
Switzerland (-45-50% by 2025)
CAGR=67.74%(2012-2015)
CAGR=10.06%(2010-2012)
Over 14‘000 fintechs globally aiming to simplify and revolutionize financial services
Source: World Bank, HSG, post 2014 data are estimated by ICI-HSG Source: CB Insights, ICI-HSG
World’s top 10 Unicorns (2015)
9
ANT FINANCIAL
$ 60 BOnline payments
provider for individuals and
businesses
LUFAX
$ 19 BChinese peer-to-peer
lender
MARKIT
$ 5.1 BFinancial information
and data provider
STRIPE
$ 5 BOnline payment
processing
LENDING CLUB
$ 4.7 BAmerica’s biggest
peer-to-peer consumer loans
platform
ZENEFITS
$ 4.5 BFree HR software for
small businesses
SQUARE
$ 4.3 BSmartphone card
readers, small business loans, and
online payments
CREDIT KARMA
$ 3.5 BFree credit scores
ADYEN
$ 2.3 BOnline payment
processor
KLARNA
$ 2.25 BOnline payment
processing
Technology giants take part in the game
September21,2016 FutureofFinance:Banksand
Fintech
10
Company No. of Users (2015)
Business Model
FinanceProducts
Volume (2015)
c.a 200 mnmonthly unique users
data monetization
(2011) (2015)
• c.a 20mn devices have Google Wallet installed in the US
• 1-2mn active users of Android Pay in the US
800 mn (iTunes users)
data, sotfwareand hardware
(2014)
• c.a 24mn ApplePay compatible devices in the US;
• 4mn users have used ApplePay at least once and 1-2mn are active users.
1'550mn data monetization
(2015)
• no data available yet
304 mn E-commerce Amazon lending (2012): loan to sellers
(2007)
• Globally more than 23mn customers (<10% customers) have used the "Pay with Amazon" service since 2013;
• Payment volume from "Pay with Amazon" increased 150% year-over-year in 2015
Source: Company reports
Wealth AdviceBlockchain and Cryptocurrency
Credit and Lending
Payment Systems
11November2016
8 clusters that are set to be transformed
1 2 3 4
Digital Capital Markets RegTech Digital Insurance
5 6 7
Innovation for Social Impact
8
Fintechs are offering simpler, faster, and more innovative payment solutions
12November2016
1. Payment Systems (1/2)
Mobile Payments
Integrated Billing
Streamlined Payments
Next Generation Security
Micropayment
Customers demand payment solutions that are different, cheaper and real-time
1325April2016
1. Payment Systems (2/2)
931 $bn
282 $bn
Alipay total payment volume 3.3 �PayPay (2015)
3.3 �
China: More active users of payment apps than retail customers at banks (mn)
549
350
270
149
465 456
314
63 56 45
Wexin&WeCaht
Alibaba Alipay&Wallet
Yu'e Bao ICBC ABC CCB BoCom CMB CNCB
Source: Company reports, HSG
Payment Apps
Retail Banks
New platforms are simplifying and expanding the lending process
14November2016
2. Credit and lending (1/2)
P2P, P2B Lending
Digital Credit Risk Analytics
Crowdfunding Social Lending
Lean, automated process
Kickstarter is an online crowdfunding platform helping bring creative projects to life
15November2016
2. Credit and lending (2/2)
Moving towards a faster, cheaper and more secure transactions platform
16November2016
3. Blockchain and cryptocurrency
Cryptographic protocols
P2P Transfers
Mobile Money
New Market Protocol/Standard
Online Fixed Income Markets
New players are challenging existing models with cheaper, seamless services
17November2016
4. Wealth advice
Automatedadvice
Sharing Knowhow
Advanced analytics
Natural language
Process-as-a-service
Partner-ships
Redefining the way buyers and sellers are being connected
18November2016
5. Digital capital markets
New Market Platforms Big Data Artificial Intelligence
Automating many outdated compliance and due diligence tasks
19November2016
6. RegTech
Automated Processes
Big Data Analytics
Machine Learnings
Virtual Banking
Sustainability Check
A new degree of personalization and proactive risk management in insurance
20November2016
7. Digital insurance
Disaggregated Distribution
Sharing Economy
Autonomous Driving
Wearables Standardized Platforms
Harnessing financial innovation to allocate capital for social progress
21November2016
8. Innovation for social impact
New Funding Platforms
Empowered angel investors
Mobile Payments
Capability sharing
Social Trading
Banking as a platform (API)
Blockchain and cryptocurrency have the potential to have a big development impact
The worlds‘s biggest problems – The Copenhagen ConsensusThe existence of trade barriers is considered to be the world’s number one problem
23November2016
1Trade barriers
Health2
Education3
Removingtradebarriersis
over30timesmore
effective thananyother
intervention.-- Copenhagenconsensus
Freetrade
Democracy
Freetradeis50timesmoreeffectivethan
democracyatreducingviolentconflict.
-- EconomicFreedomoftheWorld2005
Wealthcreationisthefundamentaldriver
ofindividualandsocialwell-being
Howdowebuildwealth?
How do we build wealth?We build greater wealth by achieving three conditions
1Greatersecurity
ofproperty3
Largereconomic
networks2
Lowertransaction
costs
• Greaterdivisionoflaborandspecialization
• Higherproductivity
• Boosing wealthcreationandstandardofliving
It is critical to secure property rights
27November2016
1. Greater security of property
However, 2/3 oftheworld‘spopulation– 4billionpeople
– arelockedoutofthemainstreameconomy,
i.e.theirpropertyrightsareunsecured.
“Development is very complex. But if you do not have an order that tells you who owns what, none of the rest works.”
— Hernando de Soto, economist
Low transaction costs are the fundamental driver of economic growth
28November2016
2. Lower transaction cost
A mere 0.1% reduction in transaction costs quadruples a country’s wealth— the difference between Argentina and Switzerland.
USD548
bn
USD701
bnUSD152.98bn
+USD3’558per
personperyear
Source:Kovak and Spruck,Institutional development,transaction costs and economic growth:evidence from across-country
investigation�Journalof Institutional Economics,September2015,pp.1–31,
http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S1744137415000077
3. Greater economic networkAbout 53% of world‘s adults – or 2.45 million -- are still unbanked
Thistechnology
iscryptocurrencies
What if we could develop a technology that • secures property rights • reduces trading costs • integrates people into the global economy?
What is a cryptocurrency?
What is blockchain?
Cryptocurrecy is also known as digital currency or virtual currencyBitcoin is the first decentralized “cryptocurrency”
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Jul-11 May-12 Mar-13 Jan-14 Nov-14 Sep-15 Jul-16
MarketPrice (USD)
OneBitcoinisworthoverUSD700today(November12,2016)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Jul-11 May-12 Mar-13 Jan-14 Nov-14 Sep-15 Jul-16
DailyTradingVolume (millionUSD)
DailytradingvolumeofBitcoinaveragedabove16mn USDinOctober2016
Source:https://blockchain.info
November2016 32
Transaction with cryptocurrency is cheaper, faster and safer
33November2016
Cryptocurrency is a currency created & transferred by cryptographic means
Bitcoinwallet
(digitalcurrency)
Jenny’sBitcoinaddress
Mike Jenny
5Kb8khDgzW933jdyhKelghw3Au72
Mike’sprivatekey(signature)
A blockchain consists of multiple blocks with data recorded within each
34November2016
Blockchain is essentially a form of a distributed ledger
�n
Ethereum allows a network of peers to administer their own “smart contract“
35November2016
Ethereum blockchain: an alternative to Bitcoin blockchain
• Smartcontracts(alsocalled self-executingcontracts, blockchain contracts,or digitalcontracts)aresimplycomputerprograms thatactasagreementswherethetermsof
theagreementcanbepreprogrammedwiththeabilitytoself-execute andself-enforceitself.
Traditional contractsTraditional contracts Smart contracts Smart contracts
36November2016
Smart contract: an example
1 A”smartcontract”
betweenpartiesis
writtenascodeinto
theblockchain.The
partiesmayremain
anonymous,the
contractisthepublic
ledger.
2 Atriggeringevent
likeanexpiration
dateandstrikeprice
ishit(i.e.the
predetermined
criteriaaremet)and
thecontract
executesitself
accordingtothe
codedterms.
3 Regulatorscan
retrievethedata
recordedinthe
blockchain anduse
themtounderstand
theactivityinthe
marketwhile
maintainingthe
privacyofindividual
actors’positions.
37November2016
Two types of blockchain: public versus private blockchain
Publicblockchain(Permission-less)
Privateblockchain(Permissionrequried)
• Anyone can read or write data from or to the ledger
• A public blockchain is a transparency engine.
• Degree of security is higher than private blockchain
• Participants are known a priori and have permission to update the ledger
• Transaction speed of a privately-run blockchain can be faster
• Privacy is obviously more assured
• Banks can still protect their underlying product from disruption by using private blockchains
How will Blockchainchallenge today‘s business model in the financial services sector?
6 key value drivers of blockchain technology
Operational
simplification1
Reducingmanualeffortsrequiredtoperformreconciliationand
resolvedisputes
Regulatoryefficiency
improvement2
Enablingreal-timemonitoringoffinancialactivitybetween
regulatorsandregulatedentities
Counterpartyrisk
reduction3
Challengingtheneedtotrustcounterpartiestofulfillobligations
asagreementsarecodifiedandexecutedin”smartcontracts”
Clearingand
settlementtime
reduction
4Disintermediatingthirdpartiesthatsupporttransaction
verification/validationandacceleratingsettlement
Liquidityandcapital
improvement5
Reducinglocked-incapitalandprovidestransparencyinto
sourcingliquidityforassets
Fraudminimization6Enablingassetprovenanceandfulltransactionhistorytobe
establishedwithinasinglesourceoftruth
November2016 39
40November2016
3 characteristics of blockchain that challenge today’s business model
Immutablerecordoftransactionhistory1
Reconciliation Auditing
• Eliminatestheneedforreconciliation
• Providesasingleversionofthetruth
Radicaltransparency2
Asymmetric
information<
Central
authorities
Regulatory
burdens
• Eliminatesimbalanceofinformationamong
marketparticipants
• Enablesreal-timemonitoring
• Increasescooperationbetweenregulatorsand
regulatedentities
Aninnovation intrust3
Intermediaries Oversight
• Ensuresagreementsareexecutedtoagreed
uponbusinessoutcomes
• Disintermediatessupportingentities
establishedtoresolvedisputes
What are the importantblockchain use cases in financial services sector?
Blockchain makes cross border transactions easier, faster and cheaper
42November2016
Use case 1: Global payments
Whatarethepainpoints? Howcanblockchain help?
• Expensive totransfermoneyacrossthe
border:costtomoneysenderaveragesat
7.7%oftheamounttransferred(World
Bank,2016)
• Crossbordertransactionsareoften
circuitousandslowduetotheinvolvement
ofmultiplecorrespondentbanks
• Thevalidation&consensusmechanismsof
blockchain disintermediatecorrespondentbanks,offeringmuchfaster andmuchlesscomplextransactionsolutions.(Companyexample:Ripple)
• Withfewerparticipantsandmoreefficient
operation,blockchain reducestransactioncostssignificantly.(Companyexample:Monetas)
Blockchain can automate processing, improve assessment and reduce cost & fraud
43November2016
Use case 2: Insurance
Whatarethepainpoints? Howcanblockchain help?
• Difficult-to-understand insurancecontractandcomplexclaimprocess(forcustomers)
• Smartcontractscanautomateclaimsprocessing,managingitinatransparent,responsiveandirrefutablemanner.
• Ever-tighterregulationandgrowingthreatoffraud (forinsurers)
• Blockchain enablesinstanttracking&sharingclaims
data,preventingduplicateclaimsandreducingfraud.
• Expensive documentmanagement(for
insurers)
• Blockchain reducesoperatingcoststhroughprocesssimplification
Blockchain facilitates automated compliance of KYC
44November2016
Use case 3: Compliance -- Know Your Customer (KYC) as an example
Whatarethepainpoints? Howcanblockchain help?
• Expensivetomaintainglobaleffortstoprevent
moneylaunderingandfinancingofterrorism:
globalspendingonAnti-Money-Laundering=
USD10bnin2014(KPMG,2014).
• Blockchain enablesreal-timemonitoringofhistoricaltransactiondata storedonblockchain isparticularlyusefulforidentifyingfraudulent/suspiciousbehavior.
• Ever-stringentKYCrequestsentailhighcostsforbanks,candelaytransactions,andfailureincompliancemeanslargepenalties.
• Blockchain couldunlockadvantagesbyautomatingprocessesandthusreducingcomplianceerrors.Italsoenablesencryptedupdatesofclientdetails tobedistributedtoallbanksinnearreal-time.
Blockchain can automate processing, improve assessment and reduce cost & fraud
45November2016
Use case 4: Post trade
Whatarethepainpoints? Howcanblockchain help?
• Humanerrorsintradingactivitiesarehardtoavoidandposttradeprocessingcanbetimeconsuming andsettlementcanbedelayed
• Smartcontractscansimultaneouslytransfersecuritiesandcashinrealtime,reducingthelikelihoodoferrorsimpactingsettlement
• Slowclearingandsettlementprocessincreasescounterpartyrisk,resultsinpoor
liquiditymanagementandhighcosts.
• Blockchain automatestheposttradeprocess.Thisenablesfasterrecirculationofthecapitalbacktothemarkets,reducescounterpartyrisksandthus,also
reducesmargin/collateralrequirements
Blockchain also has enormous potential in health, public, media and other sectors.
46November2016
Other non-financial use cases
• Digitalidentitymanagement:Permissionedmutualdistributedledgers
couldbeusedtostoreverifiedhealthrecords,passportdata,etc.inan
encryptedformat.
• Supplychainmanagement:Blockchains canbeusedtoshare
provenance,demandandinventorydatamoreefficientlybetweenthe
differentpartiesinasupplychain.
• Recordvotesinelections:Thiscouldbeassimpleassettingupatoken-
basedblockchain witheverycitizeninthecountrybeingassigneda
token.Eachvotecastwouldbeatransactionconstitutingthecitizen
sendingthetokentohis/herpartyofchoice.
• Musicdistribution:Ablockchain couldbeusedtostoreacryptographic
‘hash’oftheoriginaldigitalmusicfile,ensuringthatcopyrighttheftand
illegalfile-sharingbecomeallbutimpossible.Thesmartcontractcan
defineexactlyhowtheartistswouldbecompensatedforthemusic.
Summary
47November2016