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la diffusione p2p fa davvero così male ai brand di successo?
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The impact of piracy (and P2P) on paid content sales
Tools of Change – New York February 22, 2010
Our point of view
• Intellectual property (IP) maGers • There are niches, and Htles, for which piracy is a direct loss and enforcement makes sense
• There are niches, and Htles, for which piracy may help build awareness and trial to spur paid sales
• This research is structured to uncover which is which
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“Perhaps on the rare occasion that pursuing the right course demands an act of piracy, piracy itself can be the right course?”
Governor Swann, in “Pirates of the Caribbean”
(itself pirated)
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“Free” is not “new” …
• A long and successful history • Galleys, ARCs, blads, sample chapters
• Digital sampling on the rise
• A small set of experiments using “free” digital content …
• … but no Htle-‐level studies evaluaHng the impact of piracy on paid content sales
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Why look at this topic now?
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More digital content
BeGer ebook readers
“Piracy threat”
Our research approach
The research is data-‐driven, open (without compromising publisher data) and structured to share knowledge.
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Document and assess prior work
Address data quality
Analyze results
Assess implicaHons
IdenHfy next steps
• Collect prior work
• Segment aGributes
• IdenHfy data gaps
• Use a consistent data source (POS feeds)
• Measure sales pre-‐ and post-‐piracy
• Measure Htles across mulHple publishers
• Look at combined results
• Compare the presence of pirated content to paid sales
• Share the analysis
• Invite discussion
• Grow the sample
The current sample set
O’Reilly Media Have been measuring the impact on front-‐list sales since fall 2008
Monitored BitTorrent sites; only PirateBay had more than a handful of O’Reilly Htles posted
Tracked acHvity of seeds (uploads) and leeches (downloads) for any 2008 O’Reilly front list Htles found on these sites
Thomas Nelson Began working with Thomas Nelson’s fall 2009 list in August 2009
To dates, no fall 2009 Htles have appeared on monitored sites
Lag Hme for Thomas Nelson Htles may be longer than for O’Reilly
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What we have learned so far
• Low volume of P2P seeds and leeches • Interest in seeded content peaks early • Lag Hme on P2P seeding
• Unexplained “bump” in paid sales of O’Reilly content afer piracy is noted
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The number of seeds peaks quickly
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Leeches peak quickly and then decline
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Lag Hme before seeding varies
Average = 19 weeks
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Where piracy may help sales
• “Normed” the sales paGerns of pirated and un-‐pirated content to a common starHng point
• PloGed the average sales per week for pirated and un-‐pirated Htles
• Uncovered a visual correlaHon between piracy onset and unit sales
Because of different pub dates, the average Hme on sale for pirated content in this sample is shorter (35 weeks) than that for un-‐pirated content (47) weeks.
Comparisons at the end of the on-‐sale period are not reliable.
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Average sales (weeks afer pub date)
Average week at which seeded content first seen
Unreliably small sample sets
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Average sales (weeks afer pub date)
Average week at which seeded content first seen
Unreliably small sample sets
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Average sales (weeks afer pub date)
Average week at which seeded content first seen
Unreliably small sample sets
+108%
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Four-‐week rolling averages Average week at which seeded content first seen
Unreliably small sample sets
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Three useful cauHons
• CorrelaHon isn’t causality • Larger data sets may uncover a sample skew
• What works today may not work as well at some future date
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Proposing a more nuanced model
“White” market
“Gray” market
“Back channel”
• Print sales • DRM-‐restricted digital sales
• “Trialware”
• Unprotected digital sales • Galleys, ARCs • “Free” promoHons
• Unauthorized duplicaHon
• Pirated content
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Our conHnuing quesHon: what impact does piracy have on sales?
Understanding piracy …
• AdopHng the reader’s point of view • The risk of conclusions with limited data
• The value of DRM-‐restricted content
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AdopHng the reader’s point of view
Chris Walters, Booksprung
• Release digital content (don’t frustrate demand)
• Don’t cripple content or limits its devices or uses
• Provide high-‐quality (not substandard) digital ediHons
• Don’t try to “solve” piracy; think about managing it
Kirk Biglione, Medialoper
• Provide a high-‐quality consumer experience
• Value consumers’ Hme as well as their resources
• Kindle purchase: 2 clicks • Rapidshare download: 6
clicks
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Conclusions with limited data
• AGributor: piracy is a “$3 billion problem” • Macmillan: a seven point plan
• The risk: dialogue gets replaced with an urgent call to “do something”
• We don’t know the answers, and we should develop the data to find out
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Top 10 pirated Htles (maybe)
1. Kamasutra
2. Adobe Photoshop Secrets 3. The Complete Idiot’s Guide
to Amazing Sex
4. The Lost Notebooks of Leonardo daVinci
5. Solar House – A Guide for the Solar Designer
6. Before Pornography – EroHc WriHng In Early Modern England
7. Twilight – Complete Series
8. How To Get Anyone To Say YES – The Science Of Influence
9. Nude Photography – The Art And The Craf
10. Fix It – How To Do All Those LiGle Repair Jobs Around The Home
Source: TorrentFreak, via Teleread (Paul Biba)
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The value of DRM-‐restricted content
• Sony: DRM … “allows content creators and distributors to make money from book content”
• Reality: true pirates don’t worry about DRM
• We’re restricHng the rights of readers just in case they turn into pirates
• The value of DRM-‐restricted content? Less.
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A call to acHon
• Find out where your Htles are shared • Establish the impact on sales
• Invest in measurement on an ongoing basis
• On your own … or through this work • Learn the right lessons from other industries
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“Informa<on wants to be free. Informa<on also wants to be expensive. Informa<on wants to be free because it has become so cheap to distribute, copy and recombine – too cheap to meter. It wants to be expensive because it can be immeasurably valuable to the recipient. That tension will not go away. It leads to endless, wrenching debate about price, copyright, intellectual property, the moral rightness of casual distribu<on, because each round of new devices makes the tension worse, not beCer.”
-‐-‐ Stewart Brand (1984)
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For more informaHon
• “Rough Cut” research paper – Includes this research and future updates – Also provides background on free and P2P – hGp://Hnyurl.com/q3v4b9
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