The Rogers Diffusion Curve:Applied to the Legal Industry

William HendersonIndiana University Maurer School of Law

Lawyer Metrics LLC

“[A]ll models are wrong, but some are

useful.” -- George E.P. Box,

Statistician

Rogers Diffusion Curve

Time

Rogers Diffusion Curve

100%

50%

Time

Figure 1. Percentage of Farm Operators First Hearing of Hybrid Seed Corn and Percentages First Accepting It, by years

Source: Ryan, B., & Gross, N. C. (1943). The diffusion of hybrid seed corn in two Iowa communities. Rural Sociology 8:15-24.

Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed

Source: “Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technological Change” in Technology, Education, and Productivity (1988). 

Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed

Manufacturing Finance Medicine Consulting

Law

Source: “Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technological Change” in Technology, Education, and Productivity (1988). 

Corporate Growth

Legal Complexity

19841914

Rise of the Large Firms

Reality

Experience and Perception

© William D Henderson, 2014

Corporate Growth

Legal Complexity

19841914

Rise of the Large Firms

Reality

Experience and Perception

2014

Higher profits

© William D Henderson, 2014

Corporate Growth

Legal Complexity

19841914

Rise of the Large Firms

Reality

Experience and Perception

Higher profits

2014 2044

Search for substitutes to

deal with cost and quality

© William D Henderson, 2014

Two Hemispheres

Hemisphere 1:

People Clients

Hemisphere 2:

Organizational Clients

Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized

Susskind ‘s Market Evolution

“Tw

o-H

em

isphere

s”

X

YPe

ople

C

lien

ts

© William D Henderson, 2014

BigLaw

Criminal Defense /

Public Defenders

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

Artisan Guild

Org

an

izati

ona

l C

lients

Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized

Susskind ‘s Market Evolution

“Tw

o-H

em

isphere

s”

X

YPe

ople

C

lien

ts

© William D Henderson, 2014

BigLaw

Criminal Defense /

Public Defenders

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

Artisan Guild

Org

an

izati

ona

l C

lients

Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized

Susskind ‘s Market Evolution

“Tw

o-H

em

isphere

s”

X

YPe

ople

C

lien

ts

© William D Henderson, 2014

Criminal Defense /

Public Defenders

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams

Low Cost Providers

Org

an

izati

ona

l C

lients

Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized

Susskind ‘s Market Evolution

“Tw

o-H

em

isphere

s”

X

YPe

ople

C

lien

ts

© William D Henderson, 2014

Criminal Defense /

Public Defenders

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer

PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal

Force

Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams

Low Cost Providers

Org

an

izati

ona

l C

lients

Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized

Susskind ‘s Market Evolution

“Tw

o-H

em

isphere

s”

X

YPe

ople

C

lien

ts

© William D Henderson, 2014

Criminal Defense /

Public Defenders

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer

PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal

Force

e-Discovery Vendors

Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams

Low Cost Providers

Org

an

izati

ona

l C

lients

Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized

Susskind ‘s Market Evolution

“Tw

o-H

em

isphere

s”

X

YPe

ople

C

lien

ts

© William D Henderson, 2014

Criminal Defense /

Public Defenders

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer

PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal

Force

e-Discovery Vendors

LeanLawe.g.,

Seyfarth

NewLaw – e.g. Axiom, Novus

In-House Vertical Integration

Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams

Low Cost Providers

Org

an

izati

ona

l C

lients

Bespoke Standardized Systematized Productized Commoditized

Susskind ‘s Market Evolution

“Tw

o-H

em

isphere

s”

X

YPe

ople

C

lien

tsO

rgan

izati

ona

l C

lients

© William D Henderson, 2014

Criminal Defense /

Public Defenders

BigLaw

Regional Law Firms

Solo & Small Firms

Legal Publishers e.g., LegalZoom, Rocket Lawyer

PeopleLaw – e.g., Modria and Legal

Force

e-Discovery Vendors

LeanLawe.g.,

Seyfarth

NewLaw – e.g. Axiom, Novus

In-House Vertical Integration

TechLawKM &

Analytics Vendors

E.g., kCura,Recommind, Lex Machina

Artisan Guild Multidisciplinary Teams

Low Cost Providers

Variables Determining Rate of Adoption

Dependent Variable to Be Explained

Perceived Attributes of Innovation1. Relative Advantage2. Compatibility 3. Complexity 4. Trialability 5. Observability

Type of Innovation-Decision1. Optional 2. Collective 3. Authority

Communication ChannelsIncreased by more and better mediums

Efforts of Change Agents Educational and promotional efforts

Nature of Social SystemE.g, traditional versus modern, isolated or interconnected to other systems

Rate of Adoption of Innovation

Adapted from Everett Rogers, Diffusion of Innovation Fig 6.1 (2003)

Variables Determining Rate of Adoption

Dependent Variable to Be Explained

Perceived Attributes of Innovation1. Relative Advantage2. Compatibility 3. Complexity 4. Trialability 5. Observability

Type of Innovation-Decision1. Optional 2. Collective 3. Authority

Communication ChannelsIncreased by more and better mediums

Efforts of Change Agents Educational and promotional efforts

Nature of Social SystemE.g, traditional versus modern, isolated or interconnected to other systems

Rate of Adoption of Innovation

Adapted from Everett Rogers, Diffusion of Innovation Fig 6.1 (2003)

Relative Advantage Substitutes to make better, faster, or cheaper Reducing Complexity Making adoption incremental and natural Creating Observability Showcasing others’ successes (cornfields)                                                      Allowing Trialability Pilots to decrease fear of adoption Decision-Making Mandated vs optional vs collective Communication Channel Mass media vs interpersonal vs internet Leaders and Laggards Across and within organizations Interconnectedness The whole is greater than the sum of its parts

Increasing the Speed of Innovation: Lessons Learned