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Transaction Analysis Goldcorp’s Offer for Osisko Updated for Jan 15, 2014

Transaction analysis goldcorp and osisko

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Page 1: Transaction analysis goldcorp and osisko

Transaction Analysis

Goldcorp’s Offer for Osisko

Updated for Jan 15, 2014

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Update Comments

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Based on the 4% decline of Goldcorp’s share price since the date of the announcement, the terms of the offer now value Osisko at $5.80 per share, $0.15 below the original offer.

Goldcorp needs to raise the offer price to at least $6.16/share (assuming cash portion stays the same) to eliminate dilution to Osisko shareholders on the proven & probable (“P&P”) reserves as well as on the basis of the Last 12 Months (to September 30, 2013) EBITDA.

To remove dilution on the measured and indicated resources (including the P&P reserves), Goldcorp would need to offer at least $8.62 per share (assuming cash portion stays the same).

On the basis of 3rd quarter annualized EBITDA, Goldcorp would have to raise price up to $10.30/share (again assuming cash portion stays the same).

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Original Analysis Summary

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Morrison Park Advisors’ analysis of the transaction to acquire Osisko, as proposed by Goldcorp, concludes that it would have the following impacts to the shareholders of Osisko from a financial point of view.

• Reduced leverage to Gold

• Osisko shareholders will represent only 7% of Goldcorp after the transaction.

• Osisko’s metal content will go from 100% precious metals to only 78% precious metals and 22% base metals.

• Reduced metal value per share

• At current commodity prices Osisko has Proven & Probable (P&P) reserves with a gross metal value of $26/share

• The P&P metal value would fall to $24/share pro-forma a transaction with Goldcorp representing 5% dilution to Osisko shareholders.

• Measured & Indicated (M&I) resources (inclusive of P&P), currently have a gross metal value of $54/share.

• The P&P metal value would fall to $34/share pro-forma a transaction with Goldcorp representing 36% dilution to Osisko shareholders.

• Dilutive on an EBITDA basis

• On an attributable EBITDA per share basis (adjusting for debt net of cash), Osisko generated $0.51/share over the 12 months ending September 30, 2013.

• On a pro-forma basis, the transaction would reduce this to $0.48/share equating to 5% dilution for Osiskoshareholders.

• Alternatively, based on annualizing Osisko’s third quarter EBITDA, the company would generate $0.48/share on a stand-alone basis.

• Pro-forma a Goldcorp transaction, Osisko shareholder’s would effectively be diluted to $0.25/share on an annualized EBITDA basis reflecting 48% dilution.

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TRANSACTION ANALYSIS

Resource Accretion / Dilution Goldcorp Osisko NewCo Goldcorp Osisko NewCo Goldcorp Osisko NewCo

Proven & Probable

Proven & Probable Measured & Indicated Total

Gross Metal Value

Gold - 83,917 12,635 96,552 116,268 26,646 142,914 148,694 34,277 182,971

Silver US$M 23,637 - 23,637 31,257 - 31,257 33,524 - 33,524

Lead US$M 5,629 - 5,629 7,361 - 7,361 7,733 - 7,733

Zinc US$M 12,994 - 12,994 18,015 - 18,015 18,748 - 18,748

Copper US$M 19,111 - 19,111 22,280 - 22,280 34,766 - 34,766

Total Metal US$M 145,288 12,635 157,923 195,180 26,646 221,827 243,465 34,277 277,743

Relative Contribution

Total Metal 92.0% 8.0% 88.0% 12.0% 87.7% 12.3%

Enterprise Value 92.0% 8.0% 92.0% 8.0% 92.0% 8.0%

Difference 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% -4.0% -4.4% 4.4%

Metal Value per share Goldcorp Osisko NewCo

Shares Outstanding M 812 445 877 812 445 877 812 445 877

Shares Adjusted (2)

M 872 494 944 872 494 944 872 494 944

Total Metal Value US$/sh 167 26 224 54 279 69

Pro-forma Tansaction US$/sh 167 24 235 34 294 43

Accretion / Dilution Goldcorp Osisko Goldcorp Osisko Goldcorp Osisko

Metal / Share 0.4% -4.6% 5% -36% 5% -38%

EV/Resource Multiple

Gold Equiv. (at market) US$/oz 175 226 130 107 104 83

Gold Equiv. (at offer Price)US$/oz 175 258 181 130 122 129 104 95 103

(2) Shares outstanding are adjusted by issuing an amount, at market price, required to eliminate all debt net of cash.

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Disclosures

The content in this document is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All, or any, information in this

document shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or

investment strategy, or to vote in favour or against a transaction, or to tender or not to tender into a transaction. The analysis and ideas expressed in

this document is based solely on public information and the opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms

affiliated with the author. The author may or may not have a position in any company referenced in this document. Any action that you take as a result

of information, or analysis in this document is ultimately your responsibility. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This document

is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or

investment product. The charts and comments are only the author’s view and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. All material

presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices or values)

has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable; however, we make no representation as to, or accepts any responsibility or liability

for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any decision made or action taken by you or any third party in reliance upon

the data and analysis. Opinions expressed in this document may change without prior notice. No representation is made that the information and

analysis in this document is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities

mentioned. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only.