Understand govt priority from national budget

Understand Govt.

Priority from

National Budget

Understand Govt. Priority

from National Budget

There is an adage that says that “the Priority of a

person can be deduced from what he spends Money

on”. This is applicable to Family, Community,

Orgainsations and Nations.

The Nigerian government has gone through some

transition – from Military governance to Democratic

Rule – precisely in 1999 a new democratic

government came to power, from 1999 to 2013, we

have had 3 Elected Presidents, each with their

peculiar programme.

As a result, Programmes/Projects are sometimes

abandoned mid-way because their is no binding goal

or vision that an elected President would run with

irrespective of his personal agenda.

The purpose of this budget analysis is four-fold:

To ascertain

whether budgets

are allocated in line

with policy

priorities, as

determined by the

government

To understand

from National

Budgets the

priority of

government from

1999 till date

To determine the

budget growth

rate and changes

in budget

priorities

To calculate the

annual growth

rate of Nigeria

Budget over a

period

1

3

2

4

Agriculture

Aviation

Communications Technology

Defence

Education

Environment

Federal Capital Development Agency

Finance & Economic Development

Foreign Affairs

Health

Trade and Investment

Culture Tourism & National Orientation

Information

Interior

Justice

Labour & Productivity

Petroleum Resources

Niger Delta

Mines & Steel Development

Power

Science & Technology

Special Duties

Transport

Water Resources

Women Affairs & Social Development

Works

Lands, Housing & Urban Development

Sports

Youth Development

Police Affairs

National Planning Commission

There are 31 Ministries with several Agencies that helps the

Government prosecute programmes as may be considered

priority by the government in Power.

President & Programme Priority

Olusegun Obasanjo (1999 – 2007)

Top Agenda

a) Foreign Policy

b) Finance

c) Health

d) Information &

Communication

e) Security

President & Programme Priority

Top Agenda

Umaru Yar'adua (2007 – 2010)

a)Critical Infrastructure

b)Niger Delta

c) Food Security

d)Human Capital Development

e)Land Tenure and Home

Ownership

f) National Security and

Intelligence

g)Wealth Creation

Elected President & Programme Priority

Top Agenda

Dr. Goodluck Jonathan (2010 – till date)

a) Job Creation

b) Education

c) Health

d) Power

e) Transportation

f) Niger Delta

g) Labour & Productivity

h) Foreign Policy & Economic Diplomacy

i) Legislature

j) Governance

k) Judiciary & Justice Delivery

l) Public Expenditure Management

m)Information & Communication

Technology (ICT)

NPC Finance Transportation Agriculture Niger Delta Works Aviation FCT

Summary of Agenda/Ministry Priority

President Ministry

Olusegun Obasanjo

Foreign Affairs, Finance, Health,

Information & Communication,

Defence, Power

Umaru Yar’adua

Power, Works, Niger Delta,

Agriculture, Education, Lands,

Housing & Urban Development,

Defence, Labour & Productivity

Goodluck Jonathan

Education, Health, Power,

Transportation, Niger Delta,

Labour & Productivity, Foreign

Affairs, Justice, Finance,

Communication Technology

OBJ YAR

GEJ

Defence

ICT,

Health,

Finance,

Foreign

Affairs

Labour &

Productivity

Niger Delta

Power

Transportation,

Justice

Education

Normalizing

Budgetary Allocation

Definition of Terms: In order to understand this section, it is important to define

some terms that will be used in normalizing the budgetary

allocations.

When government budgets, they allocate budget in actual

monetary value in terms of its purchasing power at current

prices. This is refer to as Nominal value. This value do not take

into account the effect of inflation on the real value of money.

Nominal

terms

This is when budgetary values are measured in terms of their

purchasing power at a particular time. For instance, GDP may

be measured in constant 2006 prices by taking into

consideration the effect of inflation.

Real

terms

A statistical tool used to convert current currency into inflation-

adjusted currency, in order to compare prices over time after

factoring out the overall effects of inflation. Deflator

Deflators from 1999 - 2013

Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Deflator 0.74 1.00 0.96 1.15 1.28 1.55

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Deflator 1.85 2.22 2.31 2.56 2.45

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013

Deflator 2.68 3.08 3.44 3.61

The Deflator for the base year is always 1.00. Year 2000 is

going to be the base year

Formula for Calculating

Real Value from Nominal Value

Real Value Nominal Value

Deflator

Year 1999 2000 2001 … 2013

Nominal

Real

Deflator

The formula above will be used to calculate and fill up

the table

Nominal Value: Budget Presentation (1999 – 2013)

Year Total* Recurrent Capital

1999 60,549,835,647

2000 470,009,971,781 230,000,000,000 170,009,971,781

2001 894,214,805,186 397,856,858,542 496,357,946,644

2002 1,064,801,253,520 578,096,146,413 486,705,107,107

2003 976,254,543,375 593,903,247,703 382,351,295,672

2004 1,790,848,344,588 539,286,472,751 349,868,371,837

2005 1,799,938,243,138 737,330,997,094 617,284,246,044

2006 1,876,302,363,351 961,108,775,596 539,233,587,755

2007 2,266,394,423,477 1,056,563,540,997 781,530,882,480

2008 2,492,076,718,937 1,259,121,253,061 673,155,465,876

2009 2,870,510,042,679 1,649,429,453,681 796,737,536,101

2010 4,608,616,278,213 2,077,358,560,347 1,853,906,761,420

2011 4,226,191,559,259 2,481,705,176,915 1,005,989,391,174

2012 4,749,100,821,170 2,471,814,067,335 1,319,777,651,919

2013 4,987,220,425,601 2,386,024,770,349 1,621,455,655,252

Total Budget = Recurrent + Capital + Debt + Statutory

Nominal Value: Budget Presentation (1999 – 2013)

Year Total Recurrent Capital

OBJ

1999

to

2007

11,199,313,784,063 5,094,146,039,096 3,823,341,409,320

YAR

2008

to

2010

9,971,203,039,829 4,985,909,267,089 3,323,799,763,397

GEJ

2011

to

2013

13,962,512,806,030 7,339,544,014,599 3,947,222,698,345

AVG (OBJ) 1,244,368,198,229 636,768,254,887 477,917,676,165

AVG (YAR) 3,323,734,346,610 1,661,969,755,696 1,107,933,254,466

AVG (GEJ) 4,654,170,935,343 2,446,514,671,533 1,315,740,899,448

TOTAL 35,133,029,629,922 17,419,599,320,784 11,094,363,871,062

In 9 Budget Years (1999 – 2007); Total budget under OBJ was

approximately 11.2tr. On the average, 1.2tr was spent per year.

Real Value calculation

Real Value Nominal Value

Deflator

Year Deflator Total Recurrent Capital

2005 1.85 Nominal 1,799,938,243,138 737,330,997,094 617,284,246,044

Real 972,939,590,885 398,557,295,726 333,667,160,024

2006 2.22 Nominal 1,876,302,363,351 961,108,775,596 539,233,587,755

Real 845,181,244,753 432,931,880,899 242,898,012,502

2005: 1,799,938,243,138

1.85 = 972,939,590,885

Real Value: Budget Presentation (1999 – 2013)


1999 0.74 81,824,102,226

2000 1 470,009,971,781 230,000,000,000 170,009,971,781

2001 0.96 931,473,755,402 414,434,227,648 517,039,527,754

2002 1.15 925,914,133,496 502,692,301,229 423,221,832,267

2003 1.28 762,698,862,012 463,986,912,268 298,711,949,744

2004 1.55 1,155,386,028,766 347,926,756,614 225,721,530,217

2005 1.85 972,939,590,885 398,557,295,726 333,667,160,024

2006 2.22 845,181,244,753 432,931,880,899 242,898,012,502

2007 2.31 981,123,127,046 457,386,814,284 338,325,057,351

2008 2.56 973,467,468,335 491,844,239,477 262,951,353,858

2009 2.45 1,171,636,752,114 673,236,511,707 325,198,994,327

2010 2.68 1,719,632,939,632 775,133,791,174 691,756,254,261

2011 3.08 1,372,140,116,643 805,748,434,063 326,619,932,199

2012 3.44 1,380,552,564,294 718,550,600,969 383,656,294,163

2013 3.61 1,381,501,502,937 660,948,689,847 449,156,691,206

Real Value: Budget Presentation (1999 – 2013)


OBJ

1999

to

2007

7,126,550,816,367 3,247,916,188,668 2,549,595,041,640

YAR

2008

to

2010

3,864,737,160,080 1,940,214,542,358 1,279,906,602,446

GEJ

2011

to

2013

4,134,194,183,873 2,185,247,724,880 1,159,432,917,567

AVG (OBJ) 1.45 (1.54)* 546,095,847,997 263,629,560,769 206,947,649,484

AVG (YAR) 2.56 503,220,984,385 252,632,101,869 166,654,505,527

AVG (GEJ) 3.38 407,711,457,976 215,507,665,176 114,342,496,802

TOTAL 15,125,482,160,320 7,373,378,455,906 4,988,934,561,653

* 1.45 is average of Deflators for 9yrs, while 1.54 is for 8yrs. 1.54 is used for both Recurrent and Capital

since no allocation were made in 1999.

In 9 Budget Years (1999 – 2007); Total Real budget (taking inflation into

consideration) under OBJ was approximately 7.13tr. On the average,

546Billion was spent per year.

OBJ: Budget Allocations (1999 – 2007) Nominal & Real:

Nominal Total Recurrent Capital 1999 to

2007 11,199,313,784,063 5,094,146,039,096 3,823,341,409,320

AVG 1,244,368,198,229 636,768,254,887 477,917,676,165

TOTAL 35,133,029,629,922 17,419,599,320,784 11,094,363,871,062

% 31.88 29.24 34.46

Real Def. Total Recurrent Capital

1999 to

2007 1.45

(1.54)*

7,126,550,816,367 3,247,916,188,668 2,549,595,041,640

AVG 546,095,847,997 263,629,560,769 206,947,649,484

TOTAL 15,125,482,160,320 7,373,378,455,906 4,988,934,561,653

% 47.12 44.05 51.11

While Nominal value shows that OBJ spent 31.88% of Total Budget

between 1999 – 2013, the Real value shows that it was 47.12%

President Priority Ministry Based on Declaration/Focus

OBJ Foreign Affairs, Finance, Health, Information &

Communication, Defence, Power

OBJ: Priority (1999 – 2007)

Objective 1:

To ascertain whether budgets are allocated in

line with policy priorities, as determined by the

government

Objective 2:

To understand from National Budgets the

priority of government from 1999 till date

Objective 1: To ascertain whether budgets are allocated in line with policy priorities, as

determined by the government.

To Do: Confirm if the budget of the following Ministries ranks higher

than other ministries - Foreign Affairs, Finance, Health, Information &

Communication, Defence, Power

MINISTRY 2007 2006 2005 2004

Total Budget 2,266,394,423,477 1,876,302,363,351 1,799,938,243,138 1,790,848,344,588

Defence 117,314,507,407 98,359,999,999 111,868,968,876 76,057,340,928

Power 104,651,569,540 75,850,000,000 93,294,415,519 58,935,614,817

Health 122,399,999,999 105,590,000,000 71,685,426,092 59,787,376,511

Foreign Affairs 41,351,772,928 29,500,000,000 33,124,758,316 17,422,571,561

Information 19,353,762,428 14,415,986,568 29,430,435,710 12,992,626,447

Finance 10,232,352,402 12,025,000,000 17,235,132,969 17,466,407,044

MINISTRY 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999

Total Budget 976,254,543,375 1,064,801,253,520 894,214,805,186 470,009,971,781 60,549,835,647

Defence 58,613,225,424 64,908,031,039 61,565,511,944 35,062,097,640

Power 36,676,857,552 69,960,796,880 73,925,163,473 16,886,900,460 5,500,000,000

Health 52,149,106,213 44,652,636,040 42,629,588,516 17,114,684,155 2,319,250,000

Foreign Affairs 17,028,004,353 16,353,262,879 15,392,552,465 11,729,143,960 1,000,000,000

Information 7,912,798,350 15,529,233,560 11,212,554,765 2,717,202,268 900,000,000

Finance 16,883,279,026 11,825,221,600 10,695,271,875 9,740,279,000

MINISTRY Total Allocation %

Defence 623,749,683,257 5.57

Power 535,681,318,241 4.78

Health 518,328,067,526 4.63

Foreign Affairs 182,902,066,462 1.63

Information 114,464,600,096 1.02

Finance 106,102,943,916 0.95

Objective 2: To understand from National Budgets the priority of government from 1999 till date

MINISTRY Allocation %

Education 821,356,629,283 7.33

Works 649,370,619,933 5.80

Defence 623,749,683,257 5.57

Power 535,681,318,241 4.78

Health 518,328,067,526 4.63

Police Formation and Commands 462,410,270,667 4.13

Water Resources 434,265,470,799 3.88

FCT 325,631,971,297 2.91

Presidency 312,143,493,655 2.79

Interior 234,392,995,522 2.09

Findings

From the foregoing, it can be inferred that while priorities

were set on these Ministries, Defence, Finance, Foreign

Affairs, Health, Information & Communication, and Power,

budgetary allocation did not entirely reflect that they

were priorities.

It is commendable that three (Defence, Power & Health)

of these priority Ministries were given higher credence.

From the Budgetary Allocation, Education and Works’

Ministries were given the highest allocation respectively.

The Education ministry was allocated the highest budget

in 2000 (8.71%), 2003 (7.75%), 2004 (5.24%), 2005

(6.67%) and 2007 (8.81%).

The Ministry with the highest singular allocation was

Ministry of Works, it was allocated 15.83% of total budget.

YAR: Budget Allocations (2008 – 2010)


2010 9,971,203,039,829 4,985,909,267,089 3,323,799,763,397

AVG 3,323,734,346,610 1,661,969,755,696 1,107,933,254,466

TOTAL 35,133,029,629,922 17,419,599,320,784 11,094,363,871,062

% 28.38 28.62 29.96


2008 to

2010 3,864,737,160,080 1,940,214,542,358 1,279,906,602,446

AVG 2.56 503,220,984,385 252,632,101,869 166,654,505,527

TOTAL 15,125,482,160,320 7,373,378,455,906 4,988,934,561,653

% 25.55 26.31 25.65

While Nominal value shows that YAR spent 28.38% of Total Budget



YAR

Power, Works, Niger Delta, Agriculture,

Education, Lands, Housing & Urban

Development, Defence, Labour & Productivity

YAR: Priority (2008 – 2010)

Objective 1:



government

Objective 2:






than other ministries - Power, Works, Niger Delta, Agriculture, Education,

Lands, Housing & Urban Development, Defence, Labour & Productivity.

Year 2010 2009 2008 Aggregate Total Budget 4,608,616,278,213 2,870,510,042,679 2,492,076,718,937 9,971,203,039,829 %

Education 295,293,389,496 216,639,437,111 210,444,818,579 722,377,645,186 7.24

Defence 291,719,069,185 201,406,861,244 151,940,617,034 645,066,547,463 6.47

Agriculture & Rural

Development 184,396,769,831 119,763,275,542 152,111,452,763 456,271,498,135 4.58

Power 194,523,673,105 93,437,462,789 139,783,534,336 427,744,670,230 4.29

Works 250,046,528,157 173,330,753,464 0 423,377,281,621 4.25

Niger Delta 93,889,415,401 50,000,000,000 0 143,889,415,401 1.44

Labour &

Productivity 15,033,288,654 6,237,011,718 6,142,634,383 27,412,934,756 0.27

Objective 2:

To understand from National Budgets the priority of

government from 2008 - 2010

Year 2010 2009 2008 Aggregate

Total Budget 4,608,616,278,213 2,870,510,042,679 2,492,076,718,937 9,971,203,039,829 %

Education 295,293,389,496 216,639,437,111 210,444,818,579 722,377,645,186 7.24

Defence 291,719,069,185 201,406,861,244 151,940,617,034 645,066,547,463 6.47

Health 179,999,734,315 143,107,216,257 138,179,657,132 461,286,607,704 4.63

Agriculture &

Rural Dev. 184,396,769,831 119,763,275,542 152,111,452,763 456,271,498,135 4.58

Interior 95,953,764,285 82,230,690,736 266,371,519,798 444,555,974,819 4.46

Police Formation

& Commands 245,095,275,181 195,358,792,301 0 440,454,067,482 4.42

Power 194,523,673,105 93,437,462,789 139,783,534,336 427,744,670,230 4.29

Works 250,046,528,157 173,330,753,464 0 423,377,281,621 4.25

Transport 134,414,036,176 39,392,035,203 124,444,316,123 298,250,387,502 2.99

FCT 138,360,000,000 64,450,000,000 37,958,110,000 240,768,110,000 2.41

Findings There is high correlation between government

programme priority and budgeting.

Ministries of Education, Defence, Agriculture, Power and

Works received higher budgetary allocation in line with

government programme priority.

The Ministry of Education, Defence and Health were the

top three ministries with 7.24%, 6.47% and 4.63% of the

Budget.

Education

Defence

Agriculture

Power

Works

Nig

er D

elta

La

bo

ur &

Pro

d.

Programme

Priority

Budget

Priority

Health

Interior

Police

Command

Transport

FCT

GEJ: Budget Allocations (2011 – 2013)


2013 13,962,512,806,030 7,339,544,014,599 3,947,222,698,345

AVG (GEJ) 4,654,170,935,343 2,446,514,671,533 1,315,740,899,448

TOTAL 35,133,029,629,922 17,419,599,320,784 11,094,363,871,062

% 39.74 42.13 35.58


2011 to

2013 4,134,194,183,873 2,185,247,724,880 1,159,432,917,567

AVG (GEJ) 3.38 407,711,457,976 215,507,665,176 114,342,496,802

TOTAL 15,125,482,160,320 7,373,378,455,906 4,988,934,561,653

% 27.33 29.64 23.24

While Nominal value shows that GEJ spent 39.74% of Total Budget



GEJ

Education, Health, Power, Transportation, Niger

Delta, Labour & Productivity, Foreign Affairs,

Justice, Finance, Communication Technology

GEJ: Priority (2011 – 2013)

Objective 1:



government

Objective 2:






than other ministries - Education, Health, Power, Transportation, Niger

Delta, Labour & Productivity, Foreign Affairs, Justice, Finance,

Communication Technology.


Education 432,760,713,761 400,148,037,983 339,481,528,685 1,172,390,280,429 8.40

Health 279,819,553,930 282,771,771,425 235,866,483,244 798,457,808,599 5.72

Power 77,363,387,564 73,416,536,317 90,026,917,709 240,806,841,590 1.72

Niger Delta 64,706,473,318 59,723,482,821 56,629,811,018 181,059,767,157 1.30

Foreign Affairs 71,602,678,070 50,186,470,959 45,239,702,831 167,028,851,860 1.20

Transport 52,738,692,336 54,825,494,233 55,954,636,803 163,518,823,372 1.17

Justice 22,164,762,081 22,330,185,048 19,822,776,913 64,317,724,042 0.46

Finance 14,896,868,382 13,397,725,756 15,150,616,144 43,445,210,282 0.31

Communications Tech. 15,742,880,079 18,305,107,489 0 34,047,987,568 0.24

Labour & Productivity 12,718,574,857 10,851,966,886 8,616,487,013 32,187,028,756 0.23

Objective 2:

To understand from National Budgets the priority of

government from 2011 – 2013.


Education 432,760,713,761 400,148,037,983 339,481,528,685 1,172,390,280,429 8.40%

Defence 364,415,146,886 326,354,184,382 313,869,733,252 1,004,639,064,520 7.20%

Police Formation

& Commands 311,151,366,222 307,857,718,425 304,737,303,692 923,746,388,339 6.62%

Health 279,819,553,930 282,771,771,425 235,866,483,244 798,457,808,599 5.72%

Works 194,781,682,742 180,799,815,246 163,564,863,303 539,146,361,291 3.86%

Interior 154,731,693,977 157,332,986,945 158,157,297,012 470,221,977,934 3.37%

National Security

Adviser 115,512,690,505 124,263,761,913 105,240,648,267 345,017,100,685 2.47%

Power 77,363,387,564 73,416,536,317 90,026,917,709 240,806,841,590 1.72%

Agriculture &

Rural Dev. 83,204,844,639 78,984,828,949 63,526,625,985 225,716,299,573 1.62%

SGF 79,579,478,867 70,591,647,019 63,563,978,749 213,735,104,635 1.53%

Youth Dev. 86,944,795,951 76,075,840,142 47,272,599,579 210,293,235,672 1.51%

Findings There is low correlation between government

programme priority and budgeting.

We found this correlation in three ministries; Education,

Health and Power

Ministries of Education, Defence, Police Formation and

Commands, Health and Works have budget allocation

priority

Education

Health

Power

Nig

er D

elta

La

bo

ur &

Pro

d.

Programme

Priority

Budget

Priority

Defence

Police Command

Works

Interior

NSA

Agriculture

SGF

Youth Dev.

1999 2000

2001 2013

To determine the budget

growth rate and changes

in budget priorities

While budget growth rate can be inferred from Nominal value,

however the Real value gives one the exact growth rate in a

normalized system where inflation is taken into consideration.

Year Total Budget (Nominal) Deflator Total Budget (Real)

1999 60,549,835,647 0.74 81,824,102,226

2000 470,009,971,781 1.00 470,009,971,781

2001 894,214,805,186 0.96 931,473,755,402

2002 1,064,801,253,520 1.15 925,914,133,496

2003 976,254,543,375 1.28 762,698,862,012

2004 1,790,848,344,588 1.55 1,155,386,028,767

2005 1,799,938,243,138 1.85 972,939,590,885

2006 1,876,302,363,351 2.22 845,181,244,753

2007 2,266,394,423,477 2.31 981,123,127,046

2008 2,492,076,718,937 2.56 973,467,468,335

2009 2,870,510,042,679 2.45 1,171,636,752,114

2010 4,608,616,278,213 2.68 1,719,632,939,632

2011 4,226,191,559,259 3.08 1,372,140,116,643

2012 4,749,100,821,170 3.44 1,380,552,564,294

2013 4,987,220,425,601 3.61 1,381,501,502,937

With the assumption that Year 2000 is our base year,

therefore the deflator is assumed to be at 1.00.

The Real value for 2001 budget is N931 billion, compared to N894 billion

prior to the consideration of inflation. Even though there was an increase

of N424 billion in nominal terms, the actual increase for the 2001

financial year is N461 billion.

Year Total Budget (Nominal) Change (Nominal) Total Budget (Real) Change (Real)

1999 60,549,835,647 - 81,824,102,226 -

2000 470,009,971,781 409,460,136,134 470,009,971,781 388,185,869,555

2001 894,214,805,186 424,204,833,405 931,473,755,402 461,463,783,621

2002 1,064,801,253,520 170,586,448,334 925,914,133,496 -5,559,621,906

2003 976,254,543,375 -88,546,710,145 762,698,862,012 -163,215,271,484

2004 1,790,848,344,588 814,593,801,213 1,155,386,028,767 392,687,166,755

2005 1,799,938,243,138 9,089,898,550 972,939,590,885 -182,446,437,882

2006 1,876,302,363,351 76,364,120,213 845,181,244,753 -127,758,346,132

2007 2,266,394,423,477 390,092,060,126 981,123,127,046 135,941,882,293

2008 2,492,076,718,937 225,682,295,460 973,467,468,335 -7,655,658,711

2009 2,870,510,042,679 378,433,323,742 1,171,636,752,114 198,169,283,779

2010 4,608,616,278,213 1,738,106,235,534 1,719,632,939,632 547,996,187,518

2011 4,226,191,559,259 -382,424,718,954 1,372,140,116,643 -347,492,822,989

2012 4,749,100,821,170 522,909,261,911 1,380,552,564,294 8,412,447,651

2013 4,987,220,425,601 238,119,604,431 1,381,501,502,937 948,938,643

Calculating change in budget priority

It is important to determine the budget growth and changes

in budget priorities as compared to the previous years. This is

to understand whether the allocated budget is increasing or

decreasing in line with policy priorities.

The growth rate describes how much the size of an

allocation changes from one year to the next. It is expressed

as a percentage of the original allocation and is called the

annual growth rate or year to year change.

The following formula is used to calculate Growth Rate:

Real Growth rate % = (Year 2 – Year 1)

Year 1 x 100

Year Nominal % Real %

1999 60,549,835,647 81,824,102,226

2000 470,009,971,781 676.24 470,009,971,781 474.42

2001 894,214,805,186 90.25 931,473,755,402 98.18

2002 1,064,801,253,520 19.08 925,914,133,496 -0.60

2003 976,254,543,375 -8.32 762,698,862,012 -17.63

2004 1,790,848,344,588 83.44 1,155,386,028,767 51.49

2005 1,799,938,243,138 0.51 972,939,590,885 -15.79

2006 1,876,302,363,351 4.24 845,181,244,753 -13.13

2007 2,266,394,423,477 20.79 981,123,127,046 16.08

2008 2,492,076,718,937 9.96 973,467,468,335 -0.78

2009 2,870,510,042,679 15.19 1,171,636,752,114 20.36

2010 4,608,616,278,213 60.55 1,719,632,939,632 46.77

2011 4,226,191,559,259 -8.30 1,372,140,116,643 -20.21

2012 4,749,100,821,170 12.3 1,380,552,564,294 0.61

2013 4,987,220,425,601 5.01 1,381,501,502,937 0.07

The figure above indicates that, although the budget seems to have increased in

nominal terms, when considered in real terms, it transpires that the budget has

actually increased by lesser percentages. For instance, in 2010, an increase of

60.55% in Nominal term shows a 46.77% in Real term.

To calculate the Annual

Growth Rate of Nigeria

Budget over a period

1999 2001 2013 2000

Year Real %

1999 81,824,102,226

2000 470,009,971,781 474.42

2001 931,473,755,402 98.18

2002 925,914,133,496 -0.60

2003 762,698,862,012 -17.63

2004 1,155,386,028,767 51.49

2005 972,939,590,885 -15.79

2006 845,181,244,753 -13.13

2007 981,123,127,046 16.08

2008 973,467,468,335 -0.78

2009 1,171,636,752,114 20.36

2010 1,719,632,939,632 46.77

2011 1,372,140,116,643 -20.21

2012 1,380,552,564,294 0.61

2013 1,381,501,502,937 0.07

639.84

Annual average real growth

rate over the medium term:

1999 to 2013 = 14years

The average medium term growth rate from 1999 to 2013

has been approximately 46%.

639.84

14 = 45.70

Freely share, freely use and freely acknowledge the source – © Wale Micaiah

Data source:

- A Budget Guide for Civil Society Organisations Working in Education

- Budget analysis manual (www.parliament.gov.za) - Nigeria Budget office (www.budgetoffice.gov.ng)

Analysis by: Wale Micaiah (M.Sc., CISM, CCNP-Sec, MCSA)

e: [email protected]

m: 08078001800

b: walemicaiah.blog.com

w. www.statisense.com

mailto:[email protected]

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