Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
USING SCENARIOS TO GUIDE COPPER
EXPLORATION TARGETING STRATEGIES
John P. Sykes PhD Candidate
Department of Mineral & Energy Economics
Centre for Exploration Targeting, Curtin University
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 1 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
THE PROBLEM
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 2 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Explorers need to know the future of mining
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Which of these will be a major mine in the next 10-20 years?
Images: foxnews.com; mining.com; arizonageology.blogspot.com; bgk-udokan.ru; dawn.com; investroshub.advfn.com
Pebble, Alaska Pampa Escondida, Chile Resolution, Arizona
Udokan, Russia Reko Diq, Pakistan Kamoa, D.R. Congo
Slide 3 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Is this the future of copper mining?
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Technical
challenges?
Environmental
problems?
Economic
questions?
Socio-political
issue?
Grasberg copper-gold
mine, Indonesia
One of the world’s
largest copper and
gold mines
Slide 4 of 34
Photo: Author
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Getting to the very long term future C
om
mo
dit
y p
rice
/ m
arg
ina
l co
st
Quantity mined
Output
constraint
Capacity
constraint
Constraint of
current reserves
But how do you
get to here?
Based on Maxwell (2013)
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 5 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Find ‘economic’ & ‘accessible’ resources
DISCOVERED
ECONOMIC but
INACCESSIBLE
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLE but
ECONOMIC
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE but
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
UNECONOMIC but
ACCESSIBLE
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
EC
ON
OM
IC F
EA
SIB
ILIT
Y
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE
RESERVE (DISCOVERED ACCESSIBLE
and ECONOMIC RESOURCE)
(Behind)
DISCOVERED but
INACCESSIBLE
UNECONOMIC UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLE and
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE
RESERVE (UNDISCOVERED but
ACCESSIBLE
and ECONOMIC RESOURCE)
Sykes & Trench (2014a, 2014b)
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 6 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Radical change has occurred before
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Sh
are
of
Glo
ba
l C
u M
ine
pro
du
ctio
n
United Kingdom Chile USA Other
0.0
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
10000.0
12000.0
14000.0
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Glo
ba
l C
u M
ine
Pro
du
ctio
n (
Kt)
United Kingdom Chile USA Other
Decline of UK
mining, rise of
Americas
Resurrection of
Chilean
industry
Decline of UK
mining, rise of
Americas
Resurrection of
Chilean
industry
Data: Crowson,
2012
…in 1898.. Bingham Canyon… was something of a joke… only barren quartz rock flecked with a trace of copper.
Nobody could make money out of so little. …the world’s most famous mining man [Chief Engineer for the
Guggenheims] turned up his nose. It was ridiculed by the most respected mining journal of the day. …The shovels
started… in June 1906. (Lynch, 2012)
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 7 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
…but change is very complex
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1775
1800
1825
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Cu
ore
gra
de
(%)
Cornwall (UK) Average UK Average
Michigan (USA) Average USA Average
Western World Average World Average
Change from high grade
underground mining in UK to low
grade open pits in USA
Data estimated
from: Crowson,
2012
Further low grade copper
mining innovations
20th century copper
mining technology,
innovation & discovery
package
Dynamite
Steam power
The corporation
Mechanisation
Major public
infrastructure
Flotation
Improved smelting
& refining Airborne
geophysics
Porphyry
geological
model
Better work
practices
SXEW
Computation
Low cost
drilling
Globalisation Sources: Schodde, 2010; Lynch, 2012 & various
personal communications to the author
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 8 of 34
Free trade
Forward contracts
Regime change
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Foxes rather than hedgehogs in this case
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
"The fox knows many
things but the hedgehog
knows one big thing".
- Archilocus / Isaiah Berlin
Ilbury & Sunter: The Mind of a Fox: Scenario
Planning in Action (2011)
Tetlock: Expert Political Judgment: How
Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2006)
Slide 9 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Multiple working hypotheses of the future
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
EC
ON
OM
IC F
EA
SIB
ILIT
Y
ACCESSIBLE
RESERVE
MULTIPLE
HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES
MULTIPLE
HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES
MULTIPLE
HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES
HYPOTHETICA
L
RESERVE or UNDISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE
RESERVE
DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED
Sykes & Trench (2014a)
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 10 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
THE METHODOLOGY
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 11 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
The Oxford Scenarios deductive methodology
Company
Transactional
Contextual
Strategic landscapes:
contextual linkages
Drivers from the past
and future
Key contextual
linkages?
Clarify and cluster key
drivers
Explore polar outcomes
and select independent
pairs
Combine axis to develop
scenario framework Play with different
combinations
Deepen scenarios and
prepare to engage
Based on Ramirez et al., 2014
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 12 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
The copper industry is a complex environment
Contextual
Environment
(‘factors’)
Transactional
Environment
(‘inter-actors’)
NGOs Company
Equipment
Suppliers
Investors
Employees
Local
Regulators
Lobbies
Competitors
Industry
Clients
Exchange
Rates
Legislation
Macroeconomics
International
Commerce
Geo-political trends
International
Finance
Energy Prices
Social Values
Technology
Environment
Demographics
Science
Water
Availability
Innovation Commodity
Prices
Natural
Disasters
Conflict & Security
Climate
Consumables
Suppliers
Utilities
Commodity
Traders
National
Regulators
International
Regulators
Financiers
“Driving
forces”
Survey &
appreciate
Influence &
co-design
Control
Template from: Ramirez et al., 2014
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 13 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
With many evolving trends
Chinese
Industrialisation Post-War European & Japanese Reconstruction
Global
Financial
Crisis
Asian &
.com
Crises
Oil Crises
Rise of Modern
Environmentalism
Rise of Sustainable
Development
Movement
Increasing Focus
on ‘Social
Licence’
COMMODITY
DEMAND
2010s
FINANCIAL
CRISES
SOCIAL
TRENDS
Resurgence of ‘Strategic
Resources’ Concepts
LABOUR
TRENDS
TECHNO
TRENDS
POLITICAL
TRENDS
World
War II
Better
Work
Practices
Cold War (Separation of East & West)
Airborne
Geophysics
2000s 1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s 1950s 1940s
Substantial
Globalisation
Porphyry
Model SXEW
Low Costs in
Developing
World
Labour
Cost
Inflation
Computers, Modelling &
Scheduling
Decline of Unionism
Eastern-bloc
Privatisation
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 14 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
But there are some commonalities
Increased support for
mining
Decreased support
for mining
SOCIAL
ECONOMIC
BOOM BUST
TECHNOLOGY Technology drives
lower costs
Technology lags cost
inflation
POLITICAL Increasingly
restrictive regulation
Decrease in
restrictive regulation
ENVIRONMENT More land becomes
available Less land available
Broadly similar:
increase/decrease in land
availability either physically or
conceptually
Template from: Ramirez et al., 2014
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 15 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
THE SCENARIOS
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 16 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
The Scenarios
EC
ON
OM
IC
MA
RG
INS
Incr
ease
d D
ecreased
PROSPECT AVAILABILITY
Increased
Decreased
CRUSADES COUNTING HOUSE
PEASANTS’ REVOLT UNDER SEIGE
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 17 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
UNDER SIEGE
• Industry struggling with current profitability and with few future options for
growth;
• Falling commodity prices and falling productivity have reduced economic
margins at existing operations;
• A breakdown of the global order limits access to foreign projects and talent;
• State mining companies, backed by governments concerned about the limited
number of operating mines, are the main long term beneficiaries in this
scenario;
• The ‘declining-sum’ nature of the copper mining industry means that outside
industries also benefit, particularly those willing to take over the long-term
management of the copper supply chain.
• The copper mining industry may feel that it is in the ‘Under Siege’ scenario
presently:
– Falling copper prices;
– Asset write-downs;
– Curtailment of capital investments, exploration, and research and
development.
Defending current operations with few new opportunities available
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 18 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
COUNTING HOUSE
• A short term return to profitability, but a lack of long term options;
• Resurgent economic growth increases commodity prices, whilst low gas, oil and
coal prices reduce operating costs;
• However, resource nationalism, environmental and social licence issues, and
competition for resources limits the availability of new projects;
• The major private mining companies are the main short-term beneficiaries as
their already profitable assets further reinforce their advantage;
• However, over the long-term industry outsiders begin to encroach;
• This arises due to the continued failure to develop new projects, an echo of the
recent boom.
• The future becomes based on the running down of current assets and the
present project pipeline, requiring higher commodity prices to be economic.
• This is the conventional view of the future of copper mining, arising from the
scientific and economic analyses.
Focus on extracting economic rents from current operations
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 19 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
CRUSADES
• A profitable mining industry investing in a range of new ideas and projects,
able to successfully transition into the future.
• A profitable industry benefitting from a temporary period of increased
commodity prices and reduced input costs.
• Industry able to invest in technologies and innovations increasing abilities to
discover and develop less energy and water intensive, targeted mining
operations.
• At the same time the mining industry participates in a global proliferation of
multi-lateral agreements opening up the developing world to major mining
investment.
• The first movers in technology, innovation, and increasing environmental and
social access to projects are the long term beneficiaries in this scenario.
• At the beginning of the recent boom in copper prices existing operations were
very profitable, and initially there seemed to be many new options for
development and exploration, assisted by the latest phase of globalisation.
Many exciting opportunities in new areas
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 20 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
PEASANTS’ REVOLT
• A struggling mining industry, but one in which there are still many future
options available that could provide a route to profitability.
• Bulk mining operations fail in the face of lower commodity prices, higher input
costs and increased environmental and social costs.
• A radical switch to more targeted, less energy intensive mining is required.
• As the mining industry struggles, outside industries are able to make
significant advances into the industry, particularly by reforming the metals
supply chain around a circular economy.
• Reminder of the mining industry in the early 1990s, when the industry was
enduring a 30 year spell of declining copper prices and increasing
environmentalism, sapping long term investment in exploration and
technology.
• Global uncertainty was increasing as the Soviet Union collapsed, whilst a
number of key mining economies were in decline. The mining industry was
seen as ‘old industry’ as the high technology and internet industries began to
establish themselves.
Current plans not working, desperate switch to new ideas required
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 21 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
There are strategic analogies for the scenarios
Top left: J.M.W. Turner: Slavers, Throwing Overboard The Dead And Dying (1840); Bottom left: glycemicindex.com
“Red Oceans” “Blue Oceans”
Mauborgne & Kim, Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space & Make Competition Irrelevant (2005)
“Sustainers” “Disrupters”
Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (1997)
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 22 of 34
vs
vs
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
THE IMPLICATIONS
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 23 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Some are better prepared than others
Company Type
/ Scenario Under Siege
Counting
House Crusades
Peasants’
Revolt
Major ? √ ? X
State √ ? ? ?
Junior X X ? ?
Outsider √ ? X √
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 24 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
But there are no ‘one-size fits all’ strategies
Company Type / Scenario Under Siege Counting
House Crusades
Peasants’
Revolt
Operating ? √ √ ?
Project X X √ ?
Open Pit ? √ √ X
Underground ? ? ? ?
Open Pit & Underground ? √ √ ?
Energy Intensive ? √ √ X
Water Intensive ? √ √ X
Talent Intensive ? √ √ X
Weak social licence X X √ ?
Domestic owned ? √ ? ?
Foreign owned X X √ ?
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 25 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
The future may not look like the past/present C
om
mo
dit
y p
rice
/ m
arg
ina
l co
st
Quantity mined
Output
constraint
Capacity
constraint
Constraint of
current reserves
Based on Maxwell (2013)
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 26 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
THE KEY LEARNINGS
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 27 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Key learnings from the scenarios
• The scenarios investigated the links between a complex range of geological,
technological, economic, environmental and socio-political factors, in a manner
not possible with conventional economic and scientific analytical techniques.
• The conventional view of the future of copper mining – one of declining quality
resources creating economic, environmental and socio-political problems for
miners – was confirmed as a potential future.
• However, different views of the future of the industry also arose.
• This result suggests that the conventional view of the future of the copper
mining industry may not be the one that evolves.
• On a theoretical level this means that techniques for analysing the long term
future of mineral industries need to consider a wider range of factors, such as
technology, the environment and socio-politics.
• Practically, minerals explorers therefore need to also incorporate these factors
into their exploration targeting methodologies.
• Scenarios therefore may be a useful scholarly tool for investigating the future
of mineral resource industries; and a useful practical tool for minerals
explorers in informing exploration targeting strategies.
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 28 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Where is the copper industry heading?
• The scenarios show the industry is not necessarily linked to the present or past.
• The current industry is driven by the optimisation of existing assets; whilst
future is driven by the availability of new prospects.
• These new prospects may be similar to existing operations, or different.
• An industry broadly similar to the present/recent one can be envisioned, but it
is a zero-sum or declining-sum game, reinforcing the advantage of incumbent
miners. Resource nationalism becomes prevalent in both these scenarios.
• Conversely if the future is significantly different to the present mining
industry, then the mining industry may be vulnerable to disruptive innovation
from either smaller companies or outside industries.
• The mining industry does not have to control the metal ‘raw materials’
industry. Recycling and scrap production is growing, alongside the concept of
the circular economy.
• Other industries, such as oil, high technology or logistics may be better
positioned to supply metals such as copper in the future, if radical technological
change takes place.
• To a certain extent the junior exploration industry acts as a barrier to entry
against potentially disruptive outsider firms.
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 29 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Can the copper industry change direction?
• Overall the general lack of flexibility and limited strategic options of the current major group of mines and
projects in the copper industry suggests that a greater focus on the long term is required.
• To avoid a zero- or declining-sum game, the industry has to invest in the long term, either as exploration,
research & development, or increasing ‘accessibility’ via a stronger social licence to operate.
• However, there is currently no strategic approach that is ‘future-proof’, so some strategic choices will have
to be made, and potentially some strategic hedges (so called ‘real options’) placed (for companies with
enough funds).
• Key points of decision will include whether to pursue:
– energy intensive or light operations;
– open pit or underground operations;
– water intensive or light operations;
– social footprint light or intensive operations;
– domestic-owned or foreign-owned projects;
– mature or immature mineral districts;
– developed or developing world locations;
– mining or integrated value chain focus;
– operating or future asset focus;
– exploration or engineering focused skill sets.
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 30 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Further research Scenarios need to be collaborative & iterative:
• Move into ‘group’ events to bring in broader range of expertise and improve quality;
• Repeated events, drawing in new information and perspectives, and keeping up with the world;
• Act as a kind of peer-review process;
• Introduce more people into the conversation and helps integrate outcomes into industry thinking.
Future scenarios events and publications are therefore required:
• Individual scenario planning trial (Curtin HDR Seminar): Sept 2015;
• CET PhD students group scenario planning trial: Nov-Dec 2015;
• Perth PhD students group scenario planning trial: Feb-Mar 2016;
• Expert group scenario planning trial: Jun-Jul 2016.
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 31 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
References
Main Reference:
• Sykes, J.P. (2015) Using the Oxford Scenarios deductive methodology to understand the long-term future of
copper mining and guide minerals exploration targeting strategies, Curtin Business School Higher Degree by
Research Students’ Colloquium
Other References:
• Christensen, C., (2012) The Innovator’s Dilemma – When New Technologies Cause Great Firms To Fail, Boston: Harvard Business Review Press.
• Kim, W.C., & Mauborgne, R., (2005) Blue Ocean Strategy – How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant, Boston:
Harvard Business Press.
• Lynch, M., (2012) Mining in World History, London: Reaktion Books.
• Maxwell, P., (2013) Chapter 6 – Mineral Supply – Exploration, Production, Processing and Recycling. In Monograph 29: Mineral Economics –
Australian and Global Perspectives, edited by Maxwell, P., & Guj, P., 67-78. Carlton, Victoria: The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy.
• Ramirez, R, Khong, C & Selin, C. (2014) Oxford Scenarios Programme. 28 April-1 May, Oxford: Said Business School (University of Oxford). PDF
lecture notes.
• Schodde, R, (2010) The key drivers behind resource growth: an analysis of the copper industry over the last 100 years. 3 March, Phoenix, USA: MEMS
Conference – Mineral and Metal Markets over the Long Term.
• Sunter, C., & Ilbury, C., (2011) The Mind of a Fox – Scenario Planning in Action, Cape Town: Human & Rousseau.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A. (2014a) Chapter 14 – Finding the Copper Mine of the 21st Century: Conceptual Exploration Targeting for Hypothetical
Copper Reserves. In Special Publication Number 18: Building Exploration Capability for the 21st Century, edited by Kelley, K.D., & Golden, H.C., 273-
300. Boulder: Society of Economic Geologists.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A. (2014b) Resources versus Reserves – Towards a Systems-based Understanding of Exploration and Mine Project Development
and the Role of the Mining Geologist. In Mining Geology through the Value Chain: Proceedings of the Ninth International Mining Geology Conference
held in Adelaide, South Australia, 18-20 August 2014, 243-270. Carlton, Victoria: Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM) and
Australian Institute of Geoscientists (AIG).
• Tetlock, P.E., (2006) Expert Political Judgment – How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 32 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Thank You
Contact:
Acknowledgements:
PhD Committee: Daniel Packey, Allan Trench &
Bryan Maybee
Funding: Centre for Exploration Targeting (Curtin
University & University of Western Australia)
Colleagues: Department for Mineral & Energy
Economics (Curtin University) and Centre for
Exploration Targeting (Curtin University &
University of Western Australia)
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 33 of 34
Curtin Business School Higher Degree by Research Colloquium, Perth, Australia
Biography
John Sykes is undertaking a PhD in Mineral Economics, within the
Department of Mineral & Energy Economics at Curtin Graduate
School of Business, and the Centre for Exploration Targeting, a joint
venture between Curtin University and the University of Western
Australia. The PhD research is entitled “Finding the copper mine of
the future: Exploration targeting for copper mines, not copper
resources.”
Before moving to Australia to undertake this PhD, John ran his own
mineral economics consultancy, Greenfields Research in London. He
started his career as a consultant in copper mining and smelting at
CRU Group, and briefly as a gold exploration geologist in the
Brazilian Amazon. John has a Master of Science with Honours in
Geology from the Royal School of Mines, Imperial College London,
and a Masters of Science in Geophysical Hazards from University
College London. He is a Fellow of the Geological Society of London;
Chartered Scientist; Member of the Institute of Materials, Minerals
and Mining; Member of Australasian Institute of Mining and
Metallurgy; a student member of the Society of Economic Geologists;
and the International Vice President of the Royal School of Mines
Association.
31 August 2015
Using Scenarios to Guide Copper Exploration Targeting Strategies
Slide 34 of 34
John visiting OZ Minerals’ Prominent Hill
copper mine in South Australia, 2014.
