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The Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the most comprehensive and relevant analysis of our changing climate. It provides the scientific fact base that will be used around the world to formulate climate policies in the coming years. This document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findings of AR5 for specific economic and business sectors. It was born of the belief that the employment sector could make more use of AR5, which is long and highly technical, if it were distilled into an accurate, accessible, timely, relevant and readable summary. Although the information presented here is a ‘translation’ of the key content relevant to this sector from AR5, this summary report adheres to the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material. Grateful thanks are extended to all reviewers from both the science and business communities for their time, effort and invaluable feedback on this document. The basis for information presented in this overview report can be found in the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientific background reports at: www.ipcc.ch
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climateeveryone’s business
Climate Change: Implica0ons for Employment Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fi7h Assessment Report June 2014
climateeveryone’s business
Climate change threats to ecosystems such as forests and oceans will affect economic sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, mining, energy produc0on, pulp and paper and tourism. Climate change effects will interact with:
§ Popula0on growth § Economic development § Urbanisa0on and migra0on § Supply chain globalisa0on
Impacts on global employment will be both direct and indirect, and jobs will be created as well as lost. People living in poverty will be most affected.
Climate Change: Jobs & Livelihoods
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at current rates are
projected to raise global average surface temperature
by 2.6–4.8oC by 2100.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Impacts on Urban & Coastal Zones
Coastal Zones contain 10% of the world popula0on (600 million
people), and 65% of ci0es over 5 million people.
Urban areas will be affected by: § DisrupOons to infrastructure § Insecurity and breakdown of food systems § Limited adapOon ability of poor residents § Increased infrastructure spending § Increased municipal jobs
Coastal zones will be affected by:
§ Assets exposed to sea-‐level rise § Storm surges and extreme weather § Decreases in tourism § Decline in fish stocks and fisheries’
produc0on
climateeveryone’s business
Rural livelihoods and incomes will be impacted by: § Insufficient access to water § Food insecurity § Reduced agricultural produc0vity
People living in poverty will be affected by:
§ Slow economic growth § Exis0ng vulnerabili0es exacerbated by climate change § New poverty traps triggered by climate change
Climate change impacts will make it harder for people to escape poverty.
Climate Change: Impacts on Rural & Poor
Poor and rural regions are already subject to non-‐climate stressors, such as: § Underinvestment in agriculture § Land and natural resource policy problems § Environmental degradaOon
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Economic Ac0vity
Ac0ons and policies to reduce GHG emissions may threaten livelihoods in exisOng industries, but should create opportuniOes in new areas. Climate-‐sensi0ve sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism, may find it more difficult to adapt to climate change. The sectors that will be most affected include:
§ Energy § Water § Food produc0on and agriculture § Tourism § Transport
Slow impacts will indirectly change the economic viability of various sectors.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Migra0on
Migra0ons of people could be affected by climate change via: § IntensificaOon of natural disasters § Shortages of food or water § Sea-‐level rise in coastal areas or island states § Increased compe00on or violent conflict over resources
MigraOon can have both posi0ve and nega0ve effects: Posi%ve: Remi_ances sent back home from migrants abroad Nega%ve: Increased burden of work where migrants leave
Decreased tradi0onal knowledge transmission Demographic and resource pressure where migrants arrive
Migra0on will be one of the main opOons for employment adaptaOon to climate change.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Implica0ons for Employment
Most regions and sectors will experience nega0ve employment effects.
§ Extreme weather and other climate impacts threaten supply chains and logis0cs.
§ Rising temperatures and disease will reduce labour produc0vity.
Some regions and sectors will experience posi0ve employment effects. Jobs can be created through climate change adaptaOon efforts such as:
§ Flood relief measures
§ Roll-‐out of renewable energy capacity § Energy efficiency ini0a0ves
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Resilience (1/3)
§ Climate policies Increasing energy from renewable resources Encouraging culOvaOon of biofuels Payments under the REDD markets
§ Agriculture Reducing market vola0lity Making global agricultural markets more predictable and reliable
§ Insurance programmes Social protec0on measures Disaster risk management
Public investment and private involvement will be criOcal to climate change adaptaOon, and can include individuals, SMEs and large corpora0ons.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Resilience (2/3)
§ Adapta0on across food system ac0vi0es Focus on food security and equity likely to have the most direct livelihood benefits.
Food producOon Processing Packaging Transport Storage and trade
§ Fishery and aquaculture Maintaining resilient ecosystems Developing early warning systems Be^er-‐adapted livestock breeds Improving access to credit for adapta0on measures
PotenOal adaptaOon opOons exist and can directly benefit livelihoods.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Resilience (3/3)
§ Resilient infrastructure for urban areas Water supply SanitaOon Storm and waste water drains Electricity Transport TelecommunicaOons Healthcare EducaOon Emergency response
Building resilient systems will be crucial to maintain economic acOvity and support jobs.
Urban areas hold more than half of the world popula0on, most of its built assets and most of its economic ac0vi0es.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Mi0ga0on Poten0al
Decoupling economic growth from an increase in GHG emissions, requiring large-‐scale transformaOons in the way the economy works. Developing a workforce capable of working in ‘green jobs’, including renewable energy, green buildings, decentralised energy and efficiency. Reducing energy demand, through energy efficiency and behavioural change. Increasing supply-‐side energy measures such as renewable technologies, nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Op0ons available to policymakers for climate change miOgaOon include:
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Conclusion
Coastal regions, ci0es and rural areas are all at risk from different climate-‐related events. Climate change effects will disrupt economic acOvity and jobs, both in specific sectors and also by effects on the en0re economic infrastructure. AdapOng to climate change effects will present both nega0ve impacts as well as employment opportuni0es. Climate change poses a moderate threat to sustainable development today and a severe threat to future sustainable development, and thus to employment, livelihoods and jobs.
Threat Mul0plier A factor that
exacerbates the negaOve effects of other drivers of
change.
For more informa0on
Cambridge InsOtute for Sustainability Leadership [email protected]
Bela Galgoczi, ETUI
European Climate FoundaOon [email protected]
www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc www.etui.org
www.europeanclimate.org
The ETUI is financially supported by the EU.
