Terrorism Dimensions –Countering the threat of terrorism

‘Strategies - Achieving nation security’

Presentationby

Sardar Shoukat Popalzai

• Thank you – Assalamu Alaikum,• It is a great privilege to speak before the audience of this prestigious

conference.• Given the threat of terrorism to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and this

menace effecting very peace in the World, I can't think of a timelier event to have -- more importantly. So having the opportunity to speak with you ladies and gentlemen as individuals actively involved, in the conversation about national security with specifics to terrorism, is tremendously important as we sharpen our thinking, about how to counter some of the most dangerous and persistent threats we face.

• Like war, terrorism uses violence as a means to an end. But unlike war, it has no boundaries and no obvious beginnings and endings. Today through this presentation I shall examine the different dimensions of terrorism, and my specific thrust would be to discuss counter measures.

SEGMENTS

• Terrorism Dimensions• Global Insight on Terrorism• Domestic Dimensions of Terrorism• Countering Terrorism• Terrorism: A Challenge to Political Government• Terrorism Economic impact• Terrorism & Media

TERRORISM DIMENSIONS

• BECAUSE TERROR KNOWS NO BOUNDS - Compared to most types of criminal violence, terrorism poses special conceptual and methodological challenges. To begin with the term ‘terrorism’ yields varying definitions, often loaded with political and emotional implications. As PLO Chairman (Late) Arafat famously noted in a 1974 speech before the United Nations, ‘One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter’. Defining terrorism is no less complex for experts and researchers. Thus they have identified dozens of different definitions of terrorism and it is not unusual for the conferences like this to dedicate discussion to exploring and defending competing definitions beyond the challenge of arriving at a defensible definition of terrorism are considerable challenges in collecting valid data on terrorism.

• RISING EXTREMISM IN SOUTH ASIA - TREND LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN 2014 - The violence and extremism in South Asia moved inexorably upwards in 2014. Afghanistan and Pakistan experienced major increases in terrorist incidents, often involving suicide bombings against high-profile urban targets including installations belonging to the security forces.

• The statistics are telling: in 2014 upto May 4th in bomb blasts 362 persons were killed and 1,043 were injured,. In 2013, around 3,301 civilians along with 676 security forces personal, 1,702 terrorists and insurgents were killed. Thus total fatalities in 2013 were 5,379.

• A major contributory factor to the high incidence of extremist violence in South Asia has been a long-running undeclared war between the intelligence services of India and Pakistan which appears largely impervious to fluctuations in political relations between the two countries. Third countries have been drawn into this confrontation.

MAP

GLOBAL INSIGHT ON TERRORISM

• NEGOTIATING WITH TALIBAN - THE ONLY OPTION - As the international public support for the war in Afghanistan continues to ebb; the United States and its allies are no longer looking for an outright victory there and instead delve on an exit strategy that would enable the foreign soldiers in Afghanistan to return to their homes. Their desire to stay longer in Afghanistan has also been jolted by the economic meltdown in their respective countries wherein it has become difficult to sustain themselves for long, if the expenditure on Afghanistan campaign is not done away with.

• The next few months are going to unfurl the mood of the Taliban on talks offer as it is they who enjoy the upper hand presently in the strategic Afghan milieu.

MAP

GLOBAL INSIGHT ON TERRORISM

• RADICALISM CASTS SHADOW ON CENTRAL ASIA - Central Asia is a ticking bomb waiting to go off. Long ignored as a myth whipped up by the authorities to justify political repression, a surge in radical Islam in the former Soviet region has become a reality for the West fighting an increasingly tough war in next-door Afghanistan.

Analysts say long-defunct groups in Uzbekistan are regaining force in the impoverished region where ethnic tensions have long simmered under the surface.

The militants are preparing the ground for a long, sustained military campaign in Central Asia; the surge is combined with an economic and political crisis.”

A vast region wedged between China, Iran, Afghanistan and Russia, Central Asia found itself on the frontline of global affairs during last few years when it agreed to host a vital new supply route for NATO forces fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.

GLOBAL INSIGHT ON TERRORISM

• USE OF MODERN TECHNOLOGIES BY TERRORISTS - Terrorists are striving to gain access to weapons of mass destruction and their components. We must organize efforts to counter nuclear terrorism, cyber terrorism, eco terrorism, agro terrorism, and radiological terrorism - More specifically now ------

• ELECTROMAGNETIC TERRORISM - A real danger has arisen in recent years, namely, the possible appearance of a new variety of terrorist acts-so-called electromagnetic terrorism. This term refers to the intentional use of powerful electromagnetic pulse emitting devices or high-voltage pulse generators with the aim of disrupting the normal operations of a country’s technical systems. Such systems include, for example, aircraft takeoff and landing control instrumentation; telecommunications systems; electronic devices used in managing nuclear power plant operations; systems for electricity generation, transmission, and transformation; equipment used in protecting environmentally hazardous facilities; and so forth.

• AVIATION SECURITY FOCUS - Civil aviation has often been an area of terrorist interest and activity. Long before the events of 11 September 2001, terrorists targeted airports and aircraft. For the terrorist, civil aviation assets remain high-value targets. (Many Foreign Airlines have stopped operations)

DOMESTIC DIMENSIONS OF TERRORISM

• SITUATION IN PAKISTAN - Security situation in Pakistan remained tense and volatile. There have been various security incidents which describe the grave nature of situation in FATA, Swat and other parts of KPK as well as violence reported from insurgency hit province Balochistan. Security forces operations with more focused intensity continued in Mohmand Agency, Khyber Agency, Swat and settled areas of KPK .

CHART

Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2014

*Data till May 11, 2014

DOMESTIC DIMENSIONS OF TERRORISM

• Although personnel of the armed forces and law-enforcement agencies, including police, Rangers and FC, were the main target of militants, civilians were also killed in suicide attacks on shopping centres, educational institutions, mosques and imambargahs.

• The Extremists targeted a number of prominent personalities, including elected representatives.

• MANY LIVES LOST TO TARGETED KILLINGS IN KARACHI ALONE – Several hundred people have been murdered and hundreds of others wounded in several rounds of targeted killings during last few years. The trends show the target killings was the inactive role of the law-enforcement agencies against the perpetrators.

COUNTRING TERRORISM• INTELLIGENCE SHARING • INTELLIGENCE LED POLICING• CONTINUING MATERIAL AND FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM: The main source of financing for

terrorism today comes from the drug trade, arms trade and smuggling • Terrorists, drug dealers and smugglers are using a global system as old as the Silk Road to finance their

operations. • FINANCING OF TERRORISM: SOURCES, METHODS, AND CHANNELS - Terrorism has global reach in its

activities and in its sources of funding. There are manifold sources operating through methods that may be legal or illegal and sometimes even nefarious, and through routes that are often circuitous. Indeed, so-called charitable organizations are often used as a front to mobilize funds or serve as a conduit for the money. It is clear that if acts of terrorism are to be eliminated, the flow of money on which they ride must be stemmed at the source. This is one area in which stringent financial procedures and controls could be helpful. Equally important is the control that central banks must exercise in the financial sector and the banking system in particular, to ensure greater accountability and better record keeping.

• 10,000 ILLEGAL MONEYCHANGERS ACTIVE ACROSS COUNTRY - About 10,000 illegal moneychangers have been active following the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) imposed some restrictions on sale and purchase of foreign exchange by the licensed Exchange Companies (ECs, the customers find it easy to trade with the illegal foreign exchangers and convert to the black market due to the condition of producing CNIC copy while selling or purchasing foreign currency.HOW TO CHOKE IT OFF - The country's key financial regulator needs to develop more anti-money laundering and counterterrorist financing policy, with Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.

• CENTRAL BANK'S FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE UNIT• OFFICIAL RESPONSE ORGANISATIONS - Counter-terrorism tactical organisations, Local security, Command

&control, Medical services.

Terrorism: A Challenge toPolitical Governments

TERRORISM - ECONOMIC IMPACT

• ECONOMIC COST OF TERRORISM • Terrorism can have deep and long-term economic effects. Productivity and growth

decline in areas where the threat of terrorism escalates.• A heightened threat of terrorism creates uncertainty, increases costs of doing

business and slows down growth. This is precisely what is happening in today’s Pakistan as the unrelenting wave of terrorism buffets the national economy, making people feel far less bullish on the prospects of an early economic turnaround.

• Weakening investor confidence as a result of increase in terrorism.

• ECONOMY SUFFERS OVER $35 BILLION LOSS - Pakistan economy has so far suffered loss of $40 billion direct and indirect Due to war on terror, Pakistan's national economy is exclusively suffering a net loss of $6 billion annually as a fallout of the war against terror, which has displaced thousands of people and endangered security in the country, and Pakistan is the only country in the world which has not only suffered tremendous economic loss but also huge human loss in war against terror.

• The law and order expenditure is higher by about 48 per cent in presence of the war on terror.

TERRORISM & THE MEDIA

• THE MEDIA'S ROLE IN TERRORISM - If terrorism is seen as political theater performed for audiences . . . clearly the mass media plays a crucial role. Without massive news coverage the terrorist act would resemble the proverbial tree falling in the forest.

• GLOBALLY WIRED: INFORMATION-AGE TERRORISM - While some terrorists will eventually have the technological skills or opportunities to engage in extremely damaging cyber terrorism, this is not the only dangerous implication of the information revolution. More seriously, this revolution is enabling new forms of organization and new doctrines that will affect the spectrum of conflict, including terrorism.

CENSORSHIP DEBATE

• Debates surrounding censorship are always present during time of national crisis• Arguments concerning censorship are heated and central to democracy• The government faces two choices in regard to the media and terrorism

– Government agency veto power over news reports because of National security

– Self regulation

Thank you for being here, and I look forward to your questions