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Claudia perlichkeynotemarch7 2015

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Data Detective

Game

Mobile phone location data

Tale of Two Locations

40.712 N 40.71272632 N

74.005 W 74.00597649 W

Which one am I more likely close to?

In other words…

40.71200000 N 40.71272632 N

74.00500000 W 74.00597649 W

Which one am I more likely close to?

30% smart phone users

travel faster than speed of

sound …

Distribution of Patient Identifier

for breast cancer detection

100- Patients, 6% cancer 10000 100000 1000000

Histogram of patient ID???

Building a classifier for

diagnosis?

245 Patients:

36% Cancer

414 Patients:

1% Cancer 1027 Patients

0% Cancer

18 Patients:

85% Cancer

Mo

de

l s

co

re

Log of Patient ID

Every point

is a candidate

Predicting Pneumonia in

Hospitals

Tale of two linear models …

Relationship between

pneumonia and the number

of other things you have

wrong with you (number of

diagnosis codes)???

Count: real

AUC: 0.76

Count: {1,2,3,4}

AUC: 0.85

icd1x icd2x icd3x icd4x

786 285 459 -1

401 -1 -1 -1

401 780 -1 -1

599 -1 -1 -1

V22 650 -1 -1

V56 492 586 -1

786 493 285 459

Unreasonable Performance

2 weeks

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e In

de

x

2x

21

Web Site Percent Common Users

www.youtube.com 55%

www.weather.com 28%

www.foxnews.com 23%

www.imdb.com 22%

www.ehow.com 22%

www.latimes.com 20%

www.washingtonpost.com 19%

wiki.answers.com 18%

abcnews.go.com 18%

www.forbes.com 17%

www.dailymail.co.uk 14%

www.examiner.com 13%

premiumweathersite1.com 11%

www.politico.com 11%

www.nydailynews.com 11%

www.usatoday.com 11%

www.slate.com 10%

content.usatoday.com 10%

www.nypost.com 9%

www.npr.org 9%

What website am I?

22

Answer: nytimes.com

What website am I?

23

Web Site Percent Common Users

www.filmannex.com 96%

www.ffog.net 93%

www.drugsnews.org 93%

menshealthbase.com 89%

www.womenshealthbase.com 85%

www.hark.com 85%

womenshealthbase.com 81%

www.articletrunk.com 81%

411answers.com 78%

www.dailyrx.com 74%

www.all-allergies.com 70%

knowvehicles.com 67%

modernbaby.com 63%

parentingnewsstories.com 59%

www.thefutoncritic.com 59%

www.gourmandia.com 59%

www.gossipcenter.com 59%

dailyfreshies.com 56%

www.greeting-cards.com 56%

24

Answer: hiphophavoc.com

Unreasonable Performance

2 weeks

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e In

de

x

2x

Oddly predictive websites?

Traffic patterns

website 1 website 2 50%

Data from Bid Requests in Ad-Exchanges

Node:

hostname

Edge:

50% co-visitation

WWW 2010

Boston Herald

Boston Herald

womenshealthbase?

WWW 2012

Unreasonable Performance?

2 weeks

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e In

de

x

2x

Bots fake performance

Conversion Bot traffic

NYTimes home delivery subscription is in single digits …

Are you human or a bot???

Using the penalty box:

all back to normal

39

3 more weeks in spring 2012

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e I

nd

ex

Know thy data and trust

your instincts!