Contribution Modelling using Conversion Path Coverage

Carmen Mardiros@carmenmardiros

Generic CPC

Assisted ConversionsRight idea, but flawed metric

Conversion £40Display Branded CPC Direct

Conversion £55Branded CPC

Generic CPC

Generic CPCGeneric CPC

...but 1 of 4 touches = 0.25

...but 3 of 4 touches = 0.75

@carmenmardiros

Generic CPC

Assisted ConversionsRight idea, but flawed metric

Conversion £40Display Branded CPC Direct

Conversion £55Branded CPC

Assisted Conversion = 1

Assisted Conversion = 1

Generic CPC

Generic CPCGeneric CPC

Not equally assistedby Generic CPC

...but 1 of 4 touches = 0.25

...but 3 of 4 touches = 0.75

@carmenmardiros

All good (and bad) ideas start with What If...

Frequency matters more than position

First/Last click are essentially Recency-based models. Why are they better than Frequency-based ones?

High frequency is less likely to be

random

Probability for a channel to appear 3 times on the same conversion path significantly smaller than appearing just once.

Frequency means higher spend

Marketing optimisation problem if channels appear frequently and don’t pull their weight.

@carmenmardiros

How to calculate path coverage

Conversion £40Display Branded CPCGeneric CPC Direct

Conversion £55Branded CPC Generic CPCGeneric CPC Generic CPC{Universe of conversion paths with Generic CPC

=2

Universe of touches=8 Generic CPC

global path coverage4/8 = 0.5Generic CPC touches

=4@carmenmardiros

60% global path coverage

Total touches on paths with Generic CPC

Out of theses, Generic CPC touches

@carmenmardiros

Conversion £40Display Branded CPCGeneric CPC Direct

Conversion £55Branded CPC Generic CPCGeneric CPC Generic CPC{

Use it to calculate revenue contribution?

0.25 * £40 = £10

0.75 * £55 = £41Just another

attribution model...

@carmenmardiros

Clear dominant channel. Primary heavy-lifter for customer segment 4?

Total paths with Generic CPCfor customer segment 4

Total touches on these paths

path coverage

@carmenmardiros

Conversion £40Display Branded CPCGeneric CPC Direct

Conversion £55Branded CPC Generic CPCGeneric CPC Generic CPC{Universe of conversion paths with Generic CPC

=2

Universe of touches becomes

=5New Generic CPC

global path coverage4/8 = 0.5

Generic CPC touches=4

Filter “tipping point” touches

@carmenmardiros

Total non-direct, non-branded touches on these paths

path coverage (after direct / branded search excluded)

path coverage (all channels included)

Total paths with Generic CPC

@carmenmardiros

Convert path data so that you can ask specific

questions

SQL and PowerPivot

@carmenmardiros

gdninterest / banner click->google / cpc click->google / cpc click->google / cpc click->mybrand / email click->mybrand /

email click->poczta.wp.pl / referral click->mybrand / email click->forum.mybrand.com / referral click->mybrand / email click->google / organic click->forum.mybrand.com / referral click-

>mybrand / email click->google / cpc click

Get data from MCF API

@carmenmardiros

Run it through SQL

Assign unique number

Split into touches &

customchannel

groupingsCalculate

path lengthCalculate

position on pathAggregate using DAX

and PowerPivot to work out contribution

@carmenmardiros

Not sold? How about askingspecific questions.

@carmenmardiros

ConversionDisplay Branded CPCOrganic Search Direct

ConversionBranded CPC DisplayOrganic Search Generic CPC

Two types of conversion paths

Direct

Display

End of path is branded search or direct

End of path is upper-funnel channels

@carmenmardiros

Once here, is visitor nearly sold? Is this what moved people to brand-preference stage?

Common patterns?Differences between customer segments?

ConversionDisplay Branded CPCOrganic Search Direct Direct

End of path is branded search or direct

Last non-direct, non-branded touches

@carmenmardiros

All paths

All paths where last non-direct, non-branded touch was Email

Last non-direct, non-branded touches

... then correlate with path coverage

@carmenmardiros

End of path nurturersClosed the sale

Observed role: Moved people to conversion stage(nurtured end of conversion path)

Common patterns “second last + last“ ?Differences between customer segments?

ConversionBranded CPC DisplayOrganic Search Generic CPCDisplay

@carmenmardiros

All paths where last 2 touches were Email.

Which campaigns support each other? Which campaigns don’t fulfill their function?

Patterns in “Second Last + Last” touches?

@carmenmardiros

Thank You

Carmen Mardiros@carmenmardiros

40% global path coverage

Total touches on paths with Generic CPC

Generic CPC touches only

Missing touches(multi-device, cookies...)

How many touches would we have to be missing

for analysis outcome to be different?

@carmenmardiros