General features of the Eurostat populaiton projections (EUROPOP)

Eurostat

General featuresof the Eurostat population projections (EUROPOP)

Giampaolo LANZIERISenior Expert

Eurostat Unit F2 'Population'

Eurostat

Is population 'forecasting' peculiar?

"Demographers can no more be held responsible for inaccuracy in forecasting population 20 years ahead than geologists, meteorologists, or economists when they fail to announce earthquakes, cold winters, or depressions 20 years ahead."

N. Keyfitz, 1981,"The Limits of Population Forecasting"

G. Lanzieri: EU regional population projections

DG REGIO Info Session on Population Projections, Brussels, 19 February 2016

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Eurostat

Projections, not forecasts!

• 'Forecasts' should include future policies and non-demographic factors (e.g., economic development, technology, geo-political issues, welfare policies, education profiles, wage differentials, delocalisation of production, environmental problems, etc.)

• "It is to be emphasized that they are not predictions of future population size, nor are they to be assumed to indicate the probable sex and age structure. They are, strictly speaking, merely statements of what the size and the sex, age (,…) composition of the population would be at specified future times if birth rates, death rates, and immigration were to follow certain specified trends."

Thompson and Whelpton, 1943,"Estimation of future population of the United States, 1940-2000"



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Eurostat

Looking far ahead with today eyes

• Long-term assumptions are particularly challenging• think at getting correct outcomes for the current

time while being in the 1950s or even before WW2

• Usually assessed looking at macro assumptions on fertility/mortality/migration, but several other elements may actually influence the results

• Predictors/drivers difficult to use: in turn, need of long-term assumptions for them!

4G. Lanzieri: EU regional population projections


Eurostat

General features of EUROPOP

• Acronym: EUROPOPyear = EUROstat POpulationProjections year-based

• Outsourced during 1980-2002. Full internal production from 2003

• Focus on EU and EFTA countries• Carried out about every 3 years• Data by sex, single age and single year• Common methodology• Use of official data:

• differing data availability and quality• data revisions



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Eurostat

EUROPOP exercises• EUROPOP2004: Trends Scenario

• Baseline + 6 variants: high population, low population, younger age profile population, older age profile population, high fertility and zero migration

• EUROPOP2007-8: Convergence Scenario• Baseline and “no migration” variant• Regional level NUTS2

• EUROPOP2010: Convergence Scenario• Baseline and “no migration” variant

• EUROPOP2013: Convergent Trends Scenario• Insertion of short- (nowcasting) and medium-term

(trends) components in the convergence model• No migration variant + 3 sensitivity variants• Regional level NUTS2 and NUTS3



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Eurostat

Main assumption of EUROPOP

The socio-economic differences across European countries (belonging to the EU or EFTA) will fade

out in the very long run

demographic convergencebut:

no full convergence reached withinthe time horizon of the projections!



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Eurostat

Simplified schema for assumptions

Projections horizon

Min 2100 Max 2100 Min 2150 Max 2150 Min 2200 Max 2200

2100 2150 2200

Hypothetical convergence years

Target year for projections

Sta

rtin

g va

lues

(ba

se y

ear)

Range ofprojected values

Target values



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Source: Lanzieri (2008): "EUROPOP2008: a set of population projections for the European Union".

Eurostat

Convergence values

• Fertility: derived from theoretical considerations• Mortality: based on improvements at decreasing

pace in 'forerunner' countries• (Net) Migration: tendency to equilibrium

between in- and out-flows in consideration of the competition with other poles of attraction and the changing composition of population, but including mechanism of adjustment in case of shrinking working-age populations



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Eurostat

Model components of EUROPOP2013



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Eurostat

The regional dimension

• Top-down approach => 'regionalization' of the projections at national level

• Challenges:• (very) large number of geographic entities• (additional) issues of data availability/quality• small number of events – irregular patterns• additional component: internal migration• constraint of (exact) consistency with results at

national level for each age and sex



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Eurostat

Regional methodological framework

• Coherence with the overall scenario=>long-run convergence among regions of a country

• Assumptions driven by projected values at national level

• Advances from previous exercise (EUROPOP2008):• Age distribution extended from 80+ to 100+• Time horizon extended from 2030 to 2050/2080• Extension to NUTS3• Simplified methodology but ensured consistency of

internal migration with the demographic balanceG. Lanzieri: EU regional population projections


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Eurostat

Example fertility regional trends



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NUTS 2

Eurostat

Example mortality regional trends



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NUTS 2

Eurostat

Example correction for consistency



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Eurostat

Example total net migration



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NUTS 2

Eurostat

What is next?

• Possible improvements in case of a next round of EUROPOP regional projections:• Timeliness• NUTS3-specific fertility and mortality patterns• Additional variants (e.g., zero migration)• Link between (net) internal migration and non-

demographic factors

• Transition from EUROPOP to 'ESSPOP' (European Statistical System Population Projections)• Release currently scheduled for February 2017



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Would you like to know more about? You are welcome to contact me: [email protected] visit our website/database: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database



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Data & Analytics

General features of the Eurostat populaiton projections (EUROPOP)