Improving Predictions With Behavioral Metadata

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IMPROVING

PREDICTIONS

THROUGH

BEHAVIORAL

METADATA

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In an era of

big data and

technology,

why are so

many smart

people still so

wrong?


One notable exception is Arie Kapteynat USC, whose unconventional research method helped him call the election.


Why did his approach work?

?


To best answer

this question, it

probably makes

more sense to see

why conventional

research methods

failed


Conventional polling methods failed to address three behavioral issues

SOCIAL VERSUS

PRIVATE BEHAVIOR

Since most polls are

phone calls, many people

were embarrassed to

admit they were voting

for Trump.

THE INTENTION-TO-

ACTION GAP

Polls only ask who you

would vote for, but fail

to ask whether you will

actually vote. In tight

elections, turnout is key.

BEHAVIORAL

ATTRIBUTION

Polls are mostly blind

and random making

it difficult to attribute

changes in sentiment

and action.


But these can be overcome by adapting three changes

MAKE IT SAFE TO TELL

THE TRUTH

The USC poll used the

internet instead of phone

polling, which improved

access and honesty.

ASK PROBABILITY TO

ACT QUESTIONS

The USC poll asked

people how likely it was

that they would actually

vote from 0-100%.

time

ASK THE SAME PERSON

OVER TIME

The USC poll used cohort

measurement to improve

attribution of changes in

probabilities.


Better predictions come when you question the question

Who will

you vote

for?

is it possible

they will

change their

vote?

because they are

embarrassed to

say or because

of news

how likely is it you

will actually vote?


will actually vote?


will actually vote?

Conventional question

Missing behavioral data + question


Behavioral metadata captured in cohorts may yield better predictions

time

1.0Who will you vote

for?

2.0How likely are you to

vote?

1.1Who will you vote

for?

2.1How likely are you to

vote?

Events occur

P ( | )

%

%

x

x

+

x

xP ( | )

P ( | )

P ( | )

Conditional probabilities

P=probability and |= given a condition

®

OnCorps offers a platform for capturing behavioral metadata in cohorts

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Decision Nudge now

< Messages

Will you spend more time finding leads with active projects?

Yes

Great. I’ll check-in next month to see how it’s going.

Console tracks engagement, adherence and outcomes

Create and edit tools

Set new nudgesData feeds console

ASK ANALYZE ASK AGAIN NUDGE

®

Our method enables quick changes to hypotheses based on user reactions

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What data do we need to evaluate our goal?

25%

45%

17%

100%

39%

What are the odds

we’ll meet our goal?

+

What scenarios

may change our odds?

Are the right people

reacting to our nudges?

How may we adapt based

on the response?

®

www.oncorps.io

Cambridge,Massachusetts|Bristol,UnitedKingdom

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THANK YOU

Data & Analytics

Improving Predictions With Behavioral Metadata