Inclusion of demand-‐side behavioural parameters in long-‐term energy modelling

Inclusion of demand-‐side behavioural parameters in long-‐term energy modelling

Roman Kanala

University of Geneva, Ins=tute of Environmental Sciences

ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015

Social MARKAL Case: residen=al ligh=ng in city of Nyon

Import

Electricity

Marketing

Moderate Use

(process)

Marketing

Technology Switch

(process)

Existing

Incandescence Bulbs

Moderate

Use Incand. Bulbs

Switched

Low Cons. Bulbs

Existing

Low Cons. Bulbs

Residential

Lighting

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

SUPPLYResource

PROCESSTECHNOLOGIES

DEMANDDEVICES

END-USEDEMAND

Energy carrier

Electricity

Virtual

energy carrier

Moderate

use

Virtual

energy carrier

Technology

switch

1

ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015 2

Social TIMES Romania •  three sectors: residen=al, transports, others

•  only demand side modeled in detail

•  supply side: virtual imports

•  start 2010, 6 =me slices, 7 periods un=l 2026

Final energy Demand devices Useful

demand (Residential)

Electricity Incandescent bulbs Lighting Coal EFL bulbs Cooking Light fuel LED bulbs Hot water Heavy fuel Petroleum lamps Space heating Natural gas Coal heating stove Space cooling

Petroleum Wood heating stove Clothes washing

Biomass Natural gas heating stove Clothes drying

Low Temp Heat Electric heating stove Dish washing

Solar thermal Petroleum heating stove Refrigerating

Solar electric LTH radiators Freezing Solar warm water Electric cooking Wood cooking Natural gas cooking

...

Sectors Residential Transports Other

3 ETSAP workshop Sophia An1polis, 22-‐23 october 2015

Residen=al Ligh=ng (also for household appliances)


Residen=al hea=ng

5

Proceedings of the Energy for Sustainability Mul=disciplinary Conference EfS 2013, 8-‐10 September 2013 -‐ Energy for Sustainability Ini=a=ve, University of Coimbra, Portugal


Private passenger car traffic


Behaviour models

•  VBN: Value – Belief – Norm •  TPB: Theory of Planned Behaviour •  HB: Habitual Behaviour •  ABC: AXtude – Behaviour – Context

•  IPB: Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour •  MOA: Mo=va=on – Opportunity – Ability

attitude

social norm

self-ef

intention behaviourawareness

feedback

habitualbehaviour

+ + ++ + +

- - -

cacyfi

Beliefs about outcomes

Evaluation of outcomes

Norms

Roles

Selfconcept

Emotions

Attitude

Social factors

Af

Frequency of past behaviour

Intention

Habits

Behaviour

Facilitating conditions

fect

positive

positive

negative

negative

Attitudes (A)

External conditions (C) RecyclingNo Recycling

attitude

subjective norm

perceivedbehaviouralcontrol

intention behaviourbackgroundvariables

feedback

Values(especially

altruistic values)

NEP(worldview)

AC (awarenessof consequences)

AR (feeling of responsibility)

PN (feeling of obligation)

Behaviour

Belief evaluations

Attitude towards behaviour

Intention

Social norm

AbilityHabit, task knowledge

Behaviour

OpportunitySituational conditions

Motivation

7

Behaviour models seek to explain energy saving consumer behaviour, not energy consump1on


Theory of Habitual Behaviour

8

attitude

social norm

self-ef

intention behaviourawareness

feedback

habitualbehaviour

+ + ++ + +

- - -

cacyfi

Up to 95% of household energy behaviour is a form of habitual behaviour. Source: Wagenaar, 1992

To break the habitual loop: removing incen=ves to habitual behaviour, making consumers aware of their habits, enable to control the outcomes

Source: Egmond and Bruel, 2007


Social MARKAL – Social TIMES Behavioural Model


What to measure

Bounds on technologies -‐ share of people who: •  Already do have the informa=on and behave ra=onally

•  Do not have the informa=on but once beber informed, they will change their behaviour

•  Will never change because of extra-‐economic reasons

Efficiencies, cost of virtual process technology “infocampaign”: •  Part of people for whom the informa=on campaign is the principal vector

of behavioural change -‐ yield

•  Part of people who denote a medium as the most efficient one – cost mix


A hybrid simula=on-‐op=misa=on model

11

Source: K. Ramea et al., Incorpora1on of Consumer Demand in Energy Systems Models and their Implica1ons for Climate Policy Analysis, IEW Paris, IEA 19-‐21 June 2013


From the compe==on within modes toward compe==on between modes

Two travel demands: long & short distance demand

Two inputs: fuel input, =me input Travel =me budget TTB, new variable: travel =me investment TTI

12

TIMES with travel-‐=me budget

Source: H. Daly et al., Incorpora1ng travel behaviour and travel 1me into TIMES energy system models, Applied Energy 135 (2014) 429-‐439


Share of Choice -‐ Research setup


Share-‐of-‐Choice MARKAL


Share of Choice -‐ Results

15

Proceedings of the 53rd Meeting of the Euro Working Group on Commodities and Financial Modelling (EWGCFM) and 2nd International Conference of the Research Centre for Energy Management (RCEM), 22-24 May 2014, Chania, Crete

Proceedings of the 14th Informatics in Economy International Conference, 30 April - 2 May 2015, Bucharest, Romania


Social MARKAL vs. Share of Choice vs. Others

16

Cochin TIMES TIMES TTI


Social MARKAL, Social TIMES, Share of Choice MARKAL can address any behaviour

Bulbs & appliances

Residen=al hea=ng

Car traffic

Research project

•  Swiss Enlargement Contribu=on in the framework of the Romanian-‐Swiss Research Program

•  Swiss Na=onal Fund of Scien=fic Research Grant IZERZ0_142217 (2012-‐2015)

•  Research team: –  Geneva: Emmanuel Fragnière, Francesco Moresino, Roman Kanala –  Bucharest: Ion Smeureanu, Marian Dardala, Andrea Reveiu,

Emilia Titan, Felix Furtuna


Data & Analytics

Inclusion of demand-‐side behavioural parameters in long-‐term energy modelling