India lng market 2025 brochure

M a r k e t I n t e l l i g e n c e . C o n s u l t i n g

I n d i a L N G M a r ke t Fo re c a s t a n d O p p o r t u n i t i e s , 2 0 2 5

I n d u s t r y B r i e f

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Demand for LNG in India to Grow at around 17% until 2025

Widening demand-supply gap for natural gas is boosting demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in India

According to a recently published TechSci Research report “India LNG Market Forecast and Opportunities,2025”, India’s LNG demand is anticipated to increase from 64 mmscmd in 2015 to 306.54 mmscmd by2025, registering a CAGR of 16.89% during 2015 - 2025. As of 2025, India’s natural gas pipelineinfrastructure stood at 15,808 km and an additional 11,397 km of pipelines are expected to be added overthe next few years. Government Gas Allocation Policy have been implemented to address demand fornatural gas across various end user industries, classified on the basis of needs as City Gas Distribution forhouseholds, transport, fertilizers sector (urea plant), power plants and industrial sectors.

Power sector is the leading end user of natural gas in India and consumes nearly one-third of the totalnatural gas produced in the country. Moreover, government is increasing its focus on gas based powerprojects due to their high efficiency, low gestation period, environmental factors, and requirement of lesswater and land compared to other fuel based power plants. Various other policies such as recent updatesin “Gas Allocation Policy” have also been implemented to encourage use of gas in different end-usersegments. Other policies that are expected to have a positive impact on the country’s LNG market includeE-bid RLNG for smoothening the supply of imported spot RLNG to power plants and fertilizer industries.

“Increasing focus on expansion of gas pipeline infrastructure in the country, rising demand for natural gasfrom power and industrial sectors and favorable government policies makes LNG a commercially viable andsuitable fuel for various end user in India. As a result, LNG demand is forecast to witness robust growthover the next 5-10 years.” said Mr. Karan Chechi, Research Director with TechSci Research, a research basedglobal management consulting firm.

http://www.techsciresearch.com/report/india-lng-market-forecast-and-opportunities-2025/592.html

T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s

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S. No. Contents

1. Research Methodology

2. Analyst View

3. India Natural Gas Consumption Overview

4. India Natural Gas Demand & Supply Analysis

4.1. Power Sector Natural Gas Demand & Supply Analysis

4.2. Fertilizer Sector Natural Gas Demand & Supply Analysis

4.3. City Gas Distribution Sector Natural Gas Demand & Supply Analysis

4.4. Industrial Sector Natural Gas Demand & Supply Analysis

5. India LNG Demand Outlook

6. Existing LNG Terminal Overview in India

6.1. Dahej LNG Terminal

6.1.1. Dahej Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

6.1.2. Dahej Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

6.1.3. Dahej Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)

6.1.4. Terminal Overview

6.1.5. Expansion Plans

6.1.6. Terminal Downstream Infrastructure

6.1.7. Pipeline network Overview

6.2. Hazira LNG Terminal


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6.2.1. Hazira Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

6.2.2. Hazira Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

6.2.3. Hazira Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)


6.2.5. Expansion Plans



6.3. Kochi LNG Terminal

6.3.1. Kochi Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

6.3.2. Kochi Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

6.3.3. Kochi Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)




6.4. Dabhol LNG Terminal

6.4.1. Dabhol Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

6.4.2. Dabhol Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

6.4.3. Dabhol Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)




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6.4.6. Pipeline Network Overview

7. Under-Construction LNG Terminal Overview in India

7.1. Kakinada LNG Terminal

7.1.1. Kakinada Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

7.1.2. Kakinada Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

7.1.3. Kakinada Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)




7.2. Mangalore LNG Terminal

7.2.1. Mangalore Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

7.2.2. Mangalore Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

7.2.3. Mangalore Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)


7.3. Gangavaram LNG Terminal

7.3.1. Gangavaram Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

7.3.2. Gangavaram Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

7.3.3. Gangavaram Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)



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7.4. Ennore LNG Terminal

7.4.1. Ennore Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

7.4.2. Ennore Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

7.4.3. Ennore Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)




7.5. Jaigarh LNG Terminal

7.5.1. Jaigarh Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

7.5.2. Jaigarh Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

7.5.3. Jaigarh Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)



8. Proposed LNG Terminal Overview in India

8.1. Chhara LNG Terminal

8.1.1. Chhara Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.1.2. Chhara Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.1.3. Chhara Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)


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8.2. Jafarabad LNG Terminal

8.2.1. Jafarabad Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.2.2. Jafarabad Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.2.3. Jafarabad Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)


8.3. Haldia LNG Terminal

8.3.1. Haldia Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.3.2. Haldia Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.3.3. Haldia Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)


8.3.5. Pipeline Network Overview

8.4. Mundra LNG Terminal

8.4.1. Mundra Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.4.2. Mundra Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.4.3. Mundra Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)


8.5. Dhamara LNG Terminal

8.5.1. Dhamara Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.5.2. Dhamara Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)


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8.5.3. Dhamara Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)



8.6. Pipavav LNG Terminal

8.6.1. Pipavav Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.6.2. Pipavav Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.6.3. Pipavav Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)



8.7. Jamnagar LNG Terminal

8.7.1. Jamnagar Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.7.2. Jamnagar Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.7.3. Jamnagar Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)


8.8. Dighi LNG Terminal

8.8.1. Dighi Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.8.2. Dighi Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.8.3. Dighi Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)




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8.9. Mangalore (Refinery) LNG Terminal

8.9.1. Mangalore (Refinery) Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.9.2. Mangalore (Refinery) Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.9.3. Mangalore (Refinery) Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)


8.10. Haldia (Spice) LNG Terminal

8.10.1. Haldia (Spice) Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.10.2. Haldia (Spice) Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.10.3. Haldia (Spice) Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)



8.11. Kakinada (Reliance) LNG Terminal

8.11.1. Kakinada (Reliance) Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.11.2. Kakinada (Reliance) Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)

8.11.3. Kakinada (Reliance) Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)



8.12. Nana Layja LNG Terminal

8.12.1. Nana Layja Terminal LNG Demand Analysis (By End User)

8.12.2. Nana Layja Terminal LNG Supply Analysis (By End User)


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8.12.3. Nana Lajya Terminal LNG Demand Supply Gap Analysis (By End User)


9. Policy & Regulatory Landscape

9.1. Energy Sector Policy & Regulatory Landscape

9.2. End User Policy & Regulatory Landscape

10. Pricing Analysis

10.1. Current Energy Pricing

10.2. Pricing Forecast

11. Alternative Products Overview

12. Pipeline Infrastructure Development in India

13. Strategic Recommendations

14. Annexure

15. About Us & Disclaimer

R e s e a r c h M e t h o d o l o g y

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OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of the study was to understand the demand supply pattern and forecast for

the existing, under construction and proposed LNG terminals in India.

APPROACH & SOURCES:

In order to extract, analyze and project a reliable market demand and supply scenario of LNG in India a

combination of Top Down and Bottom Up approach has been used.

Multiple employees from the following companies have been interviewed through telephonic and face to face

meetings in order to extract and verify the information being collected at the source.

Companies Interviewed

GAIL India Ltd Torrent Power

Indraprastha Gas Ltd Ratnagiri Gas & Power Pvt Ltd

Petronet LNG Ltd National Thermal Power Corp. Ltd.

Shell India Andhra Pradesh Gas Distribution Corporation

Reliance Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd Mitsui

IFFCO H-Energy Gateway Pvt. Ltd

Adani Enterprises Ltd Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation

Spice Energy Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd

Swan Energy Ltd


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TechSci Research has scrutinized various published documents from following key sources in order to fill the data

gaps and verify information being collected through primary research surveys.

Secondary Sources

Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas International Energy Agency

Bharat Petroleum Indian Oil Corporation Ltd

Reliance Ministry of Power

Petroleum & Natural Gas Regulatory Board Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers

Annual Reports of various companies involved in LNG business

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

International Gas Union British Petroleum Statistics

Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell International Monetary Fund

Phase I: During this phase brief profiles of existing, under construction and proposed LNG terminals were created

which included information such as Location, Ownership, Operator, Capacity and Down Stream Infrastructure

followed by the current status such as expected year of operation launch, expansion plans, issues in the project, etc.

The study has been carried out under 3 Phases:

Phase II: During this phase a detailed and in-depth scrutiny was done to understand each and every policy or

external or internal factor that could increase or decrease LNG demand and supply in India. For this phase various

Energy Policy Documents were studied including sector and end user specific policies followed by assessment of

alternative fuels and their impact on LNG business in India.


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India imports X MMTPA of short and long term contracts at Dahej, Hazira and Dabhol LNG terminals. However,

demand for LNG is price sensitive, especially in the power and fertilizer sectors. Therefore, TechSci has estimated

demand for LNG from end-user perspective. Demand for LNG is based on demand in end-users segments, which

include:

1. Power

2. Fertilizer

3. City Gas Distribution

4. Industry (Steel, Cement, etc.)

Phase III: During this phase, sector specific demand and supply scenario has been identified for existing terminals

and forecast for under construction or proposed terminals. In view of lack of domestic supply options to mitigate

the growing demand, LNG is the only option left for end-users in India.

Lastly, as LNG demand and supply is completely dependent on prices, a detailed analysis was carried to understand

international prices of crude oil, LNG, Long term and short term contracts and domestic LNG prices.

To extract the end user demand and supply pattern primary research surveys were conducted with key end users

industries and terminal operators in order to present the past trend. However, for forecasting demand and supply

for the existing LNG terminals and estimates for the under construction and proposed LNG terminals following

assumptions were made -

1. Demand for natural gas in the CGD sector will be majorly addressed by domestic supply of natural gas.


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4. Naphtha based power plants will gradually shift its consumption towards natural gas.

5. Gas based power plants which have stopped power generation due to XXX of gas will start production and XXXX

demand for natural gas.

6. In any year, demand and supply of LNG from end users will be evenly distributed across terminals in the ratio of

capacity of LNG terminals.

7. LNG terminals will start imports from dates mentioned by the companies in press releases, government

documents with assumptions that there will not be any delay in construction of LNG terminals.

2. RLNG import terminal wise study has been considered by taking into account capacity utilization, which is X% as

per mentioned by PNGRB.

3. Capacity utilization of Kochi Terminal will XXXXXX from present X%, due to long term contract for the import of

RLNG, scheduled to start from January 2016.

Considering the assumptions, our dedicated team of industry experts has comprehensively monitored and analysed

various aspects of India Natural Gas market. The team has analysed various industry segments and speculated a

positive future for LNG in India. Taking into consideration developments, capital investments, government support,

policies and regulations, etc., our team of analysts has provided a prudent analysis of the industry’s performance in

the future. We have analysed supply and demand scenario of each terminal based on different end users segments,

prices and availability of different energies and also analysed the switching scenario based on the same.

S a m p l e D a t a - S n a p s h o t

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India Domestic Natural Gas Consumption, By Industry, 2006-14 (BCM)

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14(p)

Power Generation(BCM)

10 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8

Fertilizer Industry(BCM)

7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8

CGD (BCM) 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1

All Industries 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10 10.2 10.4 10.6

Grand Total (BCM) 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

India Natural Gas Demand Estimates &

Forecasts, By Sector, FY13-FY25 (MMSCMD)

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 9850 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 6214 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2679 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91

220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

OTHER (Ind.+Petro+etc) SECTOR CGD

Fertilizer Sector Power Sector

Total

India Average Long Term LNG Contract Price, 2010-2025F ($/mmbtu)

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0

India Demand and Supply of Natural Gas in PowerSector, 2013-2025 (MMSCMD)

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62


RLNG Supply (MMSCMD) Domestic Gas Supply (MMSCMD)

Total Power Demand (MMSCMD)

100200

2015 2025

India Natural Gas Demand from Power Sector, 2015 &

2025F (mmscmd)

180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192

150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162

50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62


Total demand

Supply (Domestic + Pipeline imp)

Opportunity for RLNG(@70%)

India Natural Gas Demand (Domestic & RLNG) and Supply

(Domestic & Pipeline) & RLNG(@ 70% PLF), 2013-25 (MMSCMD)

R e p o r t O r d e r i n g

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Opportunities, 2025

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A b o u t U s & D i s c l a i m e r

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TechSci Research is a global market research and consulting company with offices in Canada, the UK and India. TechSci Research

provides market research reports in a number of areas to organizations. The company uses innovative business models that focus on

improving productivity, while ensuring creation of high-quality reports. The proprietary forecasting models use various analyzes of both

industry-specific and macroeconomic variables on a state-by-state basis to produce a unique ‘bottom-up’ model of a country, regional

and global industry prospects. Combined with the detailed analysis of company activity and industry trends, the result is a uniquely rich

evaluation of the opportunities available in the market. TechSci Research currently tracks power industry in more than 35 countries.

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Disclaimer

The contents of this report are based on information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation is made thatit is timely, accurate or complete. TechSci Research has taken due care and caution in compilation of data as this has been obtained from various sourcesincluding which it considers reliable and first hand. However, TechSci Research does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of anyinformation and it is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information and especially states that ithas no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers / users of this report. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can changewithout notice. All the figures provided in this document are indicative of relative market size and are strictly for client’s internal consumption. Usage ofthe same for purpose other than internal will require prior approval of TechSci Research.

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