Innovations in marketing effectiveness measurement

Innovations in marketing effectiveness measurement.

Introducing…

Bottom-Line Analytics is a full service consulting group focusing on marketing effectiveness and brand performance analytics.

Our modeling experts have a total of over 100 years of direct experiencewith marketing mix modeling.

We are dedicated to the principles of innovation, excellence and uncompromising customer service.

Everything we do is geared towards improving commercial performance.

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Our experience

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Incremental Contribution from marketing

Return on Investment per £1 spent Optimise spend, maximise sales

Develop relationship between sales and drivers

Standard Marketing Mix Modeling (Econometrics)

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…pushing the boundaries

TV RADI

O

NEW

SPAP

ER

PAID

SEA

RCH

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Effectiveness Modeling (econometrics) has not changed a great deal over the last 20 years.

We fundamentally believe that marketing and media channels do not operate in silos; but moststatistical models treat them as such. We employ advanced non-linear methods which accountfor direct and indirect effects from marketing drivers.

Synergistic Effects

Copy Quality Effects

Social Media Effect

Long Term Effects

Innovations: Multi-dimensional Media Measurement

Bottom Line Analytics is at theforefront of innovations in mediameasurement. We have developedways to measure media synergies,copy quality, long term ad effects andsocial media engagement.

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Measure long term ad effectsMost advertising creates an initial short term lift in sales and a prolonged long termimpact. This is generated through repeat purchase and customer loyalty.

Long Term Effect

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Media copy quality measurementMedia content and copy quality can be separated and measured. This has implications fordesign, content and message mix.

Copy effect can vary – understanding and measuring this is vital

Note: we can apply this technique to digital media also.8

Assess marketing synergiesMarketing synergies can be assessed through simultaneous activation of campaigns. Theresults of combined activation are always greater than the sum of the parts. This is a clearindication of synergies from running truly integrated marketing campaigns (IMCs)

Reve

nue

(£)

Reve

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(£)

Reve

nue

(£)

+31%+23%

+42%

Reve

nue

(£)

+28%

Print Media & Paid Search Synergies

Print Media & Online banners Synergies

Direct Mail & Email Synergies

Outdoor & Online Synergies

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A breakthrough in measuring social media engagement

Can social media be measured?

1 The Growing Importance of Word of Mouth, www.boundless.com 11

Social Media really isn’t Media as we know it. It doesn’t have “inventory” and it’s not meant to deliver “ads” like traditional “media”

Marketing was once seen as a one way relationship, with firms broadcasting their offerings and value proposition.

• Now Marketing is seen more as a conversation between marketers and customers.1

• Social media is a key and critical channel for this two-way communication

Current social media metrics are expressed in terms of “sentiment”• Positive and negative commentaries about brands

• These metrics do not seem to explain or predict purchase behavior

Many have given up and say social media can not be measured

http://www.boundless.com/

If we remember that social media is a form of word-of-mouth, then words matter!

• The semantics, linguistics and context of the conversation matters

Our Social Media analysis is based on Stance-Shift Analysis• Uses the Social Media conversations about your Brand as input

• Apply linguistic principles of sentiment and tonality

• Results in an engagement score that is a translation of a customer’s “personal” and “emotional” relationship with brands, as revealed through language & semantics….Social Engagement Index (SEI)

• Academically published, peer reviewed & validated.2

Stance-Shift Analysis translates the consumer’s qualitative emotions into quantitative metrics.

Our approach to measuring Social Media

122 Stance Analysis: social cues and attitudes in online interaction, Mason, P , Davis B, In E-Marketing Vol. II . 2005.

Developing the Social Engagement Index (SEI)

Net Positive SEI Index

1. Mine all brand related social media reviews and commentary.

2. Parse into positive & negative review groups

3. Apply Social Engagement Indexalgorithm to “score” reviews

4. Time code by period and aggregate metrics

Positive Reviews

NegativeReviews

Positive Scores

NegativeScores

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

HIGH 0 5 7

MEDIUM -5 0 5

LOW -7 -5 0

Emotional Effect

Pers

onal

isat

ion

SOCIALENGAGEMENTINDEX (SEI)

Conversations are scored on personal and emotional content

“I HAD A DIET COKE FOR LUNCH TODAY”

“THE WARM DIET COKE WAS RATHER BLAND”

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“I REALLY LOVE MY COKE WITH PIZZA”

“I LIKE THE TASTE OF SPRITE WITH LEMON”

“MY COKE HAS LOST ITS FIZZ AND TASTES AWFUL”

SEI shows superior correlations to brand sales compared with other Social Sentiment Metrics

82.9%

14.8%

9.9%

7.7%

5.9%

2.8%

-3.2%

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT INDEX POS/NEG RATIO

METRIC 5 POS/NEG RATIO






Comparison of correlation to sales for the SEI versus the six leading sentiment metrics

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The correlation* to sales over time shows the SEI has Predictive Power16

ACID TEST: SEIsm has proven linkage with brand sales

Correlation = 86.4%

Correlation = 84%

Correlation = 81.1%

Correlation = 83%Correlation = 83%

* Lead lag analysis has confirmed that causation is only one way – the SEI to a large degree is able to drive hard commercial metrics.

Applications of the SEISM

Packaged inside a media mix model, the SEI acts as the key indicator for social media ‘word of mouth’.

We are able to determine the return on investment for social media and provide steer around the most effective channels and spend.

SEI to help uncover market insights

The SEI is also the primary tool used to understand the degree of brand engagement as it transpires through the use of language.

• Understand drivers to positive engagement.

• Measure the efficacy of individual campaigns.

• Develop content strategy that has cut through.

• Enhance the execution of sporting events.

• Assess brand perception in a competitive sense.

• Understand consumer discourse and manage crises.

SEI to measure social media ROI

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SEI to measure social media ROI

We find that conventional advertising has both a “direct” and “indirect” impact on sales due to its influence on social media conversations and the SEI.

The large contribution from the SEI support the notion that this is a “word-of-mouth” effect

67%

8%

3%2% 2%

10%

5%

11%

20%

Marketing Contributions

Base Sales Direct Alpha Brand Mass Media Direct Alpha Brand Digital MediaDirect Social Media Social Media on SEI Mass Media on SEIDigital Media on SEI SEI Base

Net driven by media

SEIEngagement

Sub-model

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The impact of Social Media sentiment

A key insight we uncovered across clients is the difference between “positive” and “negative” brand conversations

Negative-toned conversation have a significantly greater net impact on brand sales

+4.4%

+16.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Positive Sentiment Negative Sentiment

The absolute impact from positive & negative consumer reviews

Marketers need to develop strategies and tactics to immediately mitigate “Negative News” and prevent them from going Viral.

Much like other marketing and media metrics, we can deconstruct the different elements of the SEI metric into the channels driving social engagement and brand sales.

Source: Nielsen BuzzMetrics data as of November 27, 2011

Social channels driving consumer engagement and sales

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Most Important Drivers to Positive SEI.

Using this insight, the client developed a ‘bring

a friend, and get one coffee free’ to drive store

level sales.Positive SEI 3.93 = 100

Place2HangOut >5.46= 211

9.1%

Place2HangOut <5.46 = 83

91.9%

ToMeetPeople>9.43 = 325

2.6%

ToMeetPeople<9.63 = 188

6.5%

Atmosphere>14.0 = 466

0.6%

Atmosphere<14.0 = 288

1.9%

To Meet People>5.4 = 229

3.8%

To Meet People<5.4 = 85

85.5%

Beverage A>6.4 = 271

7.7%

Beverage A<6.4 = 74

77.8%

Place2HangOut>3.6 = 126

5.9%

Place2HangOut<3.6 = 76

71.9%

Beverage B>5.2 = 211.1

1.6%

Beverage B<5.2 = 67

70.3%

Note: Separate analysis - Classification & Regression Trees (CART)The tree starts with an average SEI score of 100; and each level indicates a higher or lower SEI based on an SEI score for a topic. The percent represents the percent of the sample in each segment.

Develop In-Market strategies based on “Why” consumers use your brand

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Alpha_P1

Beta_P1

Note: Separate analysis - Adapted Statistical Correspondence AnalysisExample: Global Coffee ChainBubble size represents the buzz/volume of chatter (SEI Conversational Clusters)

Alpha_P2Beta_P2

Gamma_P1

Gamma_P2

Net Chatter around value and price

Net Chatter around coolness, funky, style, Décor

Net Chatter around taste and product quality

Net Chatter around in-store customer experience

Delta_P2

Delta_P1

Good value

Coffee Price

Food prices

Staying in

Seating/chairs

Toilets

Richness

Latte

Amazing tasteLike no other

Cool brand

FunkyStylish Artwork/Decor

Visualise social media brand conversations

Why

Impartial and Independent

Full Service Analytics Capability

Social Media Measurement

Marketing Mix Modelling 3.0

Pricing Optimisation

Radial Landscape Mapping

Key Drivers Analysis

Demand Forecasting

Customer Satisfaction Modelling

Performance Analytics Dashboards

Segmentation Analysis

Our proprietary approach to social media

measurement is unrivalled.

Objective approach to media measurement.

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Michael Wolfe

CEOBottom Line AnalyticsE: [email protected]: 770.485.0270

www.bottomlineanalytics.com

David Weinberger

CMOBottom Line AnalyticsE: [email protected]: 770.649.0472


Masood Akhtar

Partner, Analytics (EMEA)Bottom Line AnalyticsE: [email protected]: +44 7970 789 663


Data & Analytics

Innovations in marketing effectiveness measurement