The Economic Cost of Inactivity in Europe

Vicky Pryce, CEBRMOVE CongressNovember 6,2015

Proportion of jobs in the EU-28 nations, by occupational category, 1995-2014

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

Up by 43 million

Down by 7 million

Less active occupationsMore active occupations

Source: EU Labour Force Survey, Cebr analysis

How much activity is sufficient?

Source: WHO

The WHO recommends that adults aged 18 or over should undertake, either:

• 150 minutes per week of moderate-intensity aerobic physical activity (equivalent to around 20 minutes per day); or

• 75 minutes per week of vigorous-intensity activity; or

• an equivalent combination of moderate and vigorous activity.

For children and adolescents aged 5-17, the guidelines are more demanding:

• At least 60 minutes per day of moderate-to-vigorous intensity aerobic physicalactivity

The health benefits which activity delivers

Source: WHO (2006)

Condition Effect

Heart disease Reduced risk

Stroke Reduced risk

Overweight and obesity Reduced risk

Type II diabetes Reduced risk

Colon cancer Reduced risk

Breast cancer Reduced risk

Musculoskeletal health Improvement

Falls in older people Reduced risk

Psychological wellbeing Improvement

Depression Reduced risk

Leading risk factors for global mortality, 2004

Source: WHO (2009)

Indoor smoke from solid fuels

Childhood underweight

Alcohol use

Unsafe sex

High Cholesterol

Overweight and obesity

PHYSICAL INACTIVITY

High blood glucose

Tobacco use

High blood pressure

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.4

5.1

7.5

Millions of global deaths

Economic costs of inactivity

• Why economic costs?

• Direct costs of treatment and healthcare

• These are resources expended in the treatment of inactivity-related disease

• Indirect costs resulting from reduced length and quality of life

• This represents forgone output from premature morbidity and mortality

• Includes the indirect costs of inactivity-related mental health disorders

• Value of statistical life (VSL) not included

Proportion of insufficiently active adults, 2010

Poland Germany France EU-28 Spain Italy UK0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

14%

19% 19%22%

27% 28%

32%

24% 24%

28%30%

34%

38%

42%

Males Females

Source: WHO 2010, Cebr analysis. Data are age-standardised

Proportion of insufficiently active children, EU-28

Source: HBSC via Currie et al., (2008, 2012), Cebr analysis

Age 11 Age 13 Age 1572%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

77%

82%

86%

78%

83%

87%2005-062009-10

Regularity of exercise or sport participation, 2013, EU-28

Source: Eurobarometer

Regularly With some regularity Seldom Never0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%RetiredHomemakersUnemployedManual workersSelf-employedOther white collar workersManagers

Physical activity improves wellbeing

Source: Global Corporate Challenge. Values represent average change in self-reported well-being indices, for individuals who completed GCC programme (relative to same respondent’s scores prior to

GCC).

Stress at home

Stress at work

Work relationships

Organisation morale

Vigour

Productivity

Overall health

Sleep quality

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

-11.9%

-8.0%

0.4%

6.1%

8.1%

9.2%

9.9%

13.9%

Average impacts on self-reported wellbeing indicators following participation in Global Corporate Challenge (n=33,612)

Total annual costs of inactivity-related disorders in EU-28, 2012

Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

23.5 23.1

13.9

11.4

8.5

€ bi

llion

s

Total annual costs of inactivity-related disorders in focus nations, 2012

Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis

Poland Spain France Italy United Kingdom

Germany0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2.0

5.6

8.3

10.612.3 12.8

2.2

6.6

9.5

12.1

14.2 14.5

1.0 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.7

DirectIndirectTotal

€ bi

llion

s

Inactivity costs as a proportion of annual healthcare expenditure, 2012

Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis

France Germany EU-28 Spain United Kingdom

Poland Italy0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4.0%4.8%

6.2%6.9%

8.3% 8.4% 8.9%

Economic cost savings from reducing inactivity in six focus countries, 2012

Source: Lee et al., (2012), WHO, OECD, Eurostat, IDA, EUCAN, Cebr analysis

Poland Spain France Italy United Kingdom

Germany0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

109331

473607

712 726

217

661

947

1,2141,423 1,452

435

1,322

1,894

2,429

2,846 2,9055% 10% 20%

€ m

illio

ns