Techniques for Running Large Numbers of Scenariosin VEDA TIMES

Xiufeng Yue - ETSAP Workshop

Overview

Background – Why we developed the technique

Applications – How is current model improved by this new technique

Sensitivity Analysis Example

Monte Carlo Analysis Example

Schematics – How to use the technique to batch generate scenarios

BackgroundNTR Project: Our 2050 – Opportunities for Ireland In A Low Carbon Economy

Model: Irish TIMES modelTarget: Examine Irish energy system and Identify Robust TechnologiesApproach: Run large number of scenarios incorporating constraints and uncertaintiesIssue: VEDA does not facilitate scenario batch generation (Proposal Rejected)Outcome: We Developed Scenario Generator Tool as Workaround

Application - Sensitivity Analysis

• Use Irish TIMES Model

• Fix ETS Carbon Tax

• Vary NETS Carbon Tax

• Effect on total emissions

Simple Scenario Approach

Difficult to Choose Proper Scenarios

Only Provide Point Estimates

More Difficult to Make Decisions

Extensive Sensitivity Analysis

Full Trends of Results

Identify tipping points

Target “interesting” Scenarios

Application - Sensitivity Analysis

Total Final Consumption by Sector

Reduced Consumption in Transport Sector

Transport by Mode

Fossil Fuel Consumption Halved

Increased Electricity and Biofuel

Biofuels Import

Biofuel Import Doubled with 12% increase in carbon tax

Application - Monte Carlo Analysis• Applicable to a variety of energy

systems models (ESME, Markal, Answer)

• Combine Effects from all Uncertain Parameters

• Quantify Uncertainties

Application - Monte Carlo Analysis

• Use Irish TIMES Model

• Fixed ETS Tax

• Triangular Distributions for 2030 and 2050 NETS Targets

• Run Model 500 Times

• Output NETS CO2 Price

• Can we meet the target under certain costs?

2030 NETS Reduction TargetTriangular (15%, 25%, 35%)

2050 NETS Reduction TargetTriangular (60%, 80%, 100%)

VEDA System.dd & .RUN – Assemble TIMES Model inputs

.GDX – Contain Inputs and solutions to GAMS

.LST – Equation List

.LOG – Report Information

.VD – Solution files for VBE

Key Challenges• VEDA-FE processes scenarios one by one –

How to automate the Scenario generation process

• VEDA-BE unable to process large number of scenarios –How to handle results in millions/billions

• VEDA-BE can only export graph for one scenario –How to generate templates for graphing purposes

Multi-Scenario System1. Run base case scenario

with deterministic values

2. Use Scenario Generator to Define Stochastic Values

3. Run scenarios in batch

4. Use VBE or SQL server for results handling

Scenario Generator

1. Import the .dd filecontaining uncertain parameters

2. Import .RUN file

3. Specify number of iterations, output folders and GAMS folders

Scenario Generator4. Assign values to uncertain

parameters on spreadsheet

5. Generate one .CMD file and a list of .RUN and .dd files

6. .CMD runs all scenarios in batch

Define Distributions for Monte Carlo Simulation

Define Deterministic Listfor Sensitivity Analysis

Result Handling with SQL Server

1. Import .VD Table with PowerShell

2. Create Table Templates with SQL Queries

Graphing with TableauVEDA-Back End & Excel SQL & Tableau

Graphing with TableauTotal Emission Trend AnimationBAU Scenario & -80% Scenario

Thank You!