Telecom Customer Bases – Part 2

Telecom Customer Bases – Part 2 Indonesian Telecom Market Facts and Numbers: Charts & Tables 2004-2008 [HR.CTD002.V1U1-2009] Dr.-Ing. Eueung Mulyana @ Harewos Research 11/7/2009 http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

Telecom Customer Bases – Part 2

Harewos.Research http://www.ligarvirtual.com/harewos

Nov. 7

2

Contents

List of Figures & Tables ........................................................................................................ 3

FWL / PSTN Customer Base ................................................................................................ 4

FWA Customer Base ............................................................................................................. 6

Mobile/Cellular Customer Base .......................................................................................... 10

Wireless Customer Base ..................................................................................................... 17

Abbreviations & Notes ........................................................................................................ 20



Nov. 7

3

List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1 Fixed Wireline Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ........................................................ 4 Figure 2 Market Share of FWL Minor Players .................................................................... 5 Figure 3 FWA Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ........................................................................ 6 Figure 4 FWA Market Shares (2004-2008) .......................................................................... 7 Figure 5 FWA Market Share 2008E ..................................................................................... 7 Figure 6 Prepaid FWA Subscriber Base (2004-2008) .......................................................... 8 Figure 7 FWA Prepaid Portion 2004-2008 (All Operators) ................................................. 9 Figure 8 FWA Prepaid Portions 2004-2008 ......................................................................... 9 Figure 9 Mobile/Cellular Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ..................................................... 10 Figure 10 Market Share of Subscribers 2008E .................................................................. 11 Figure 11 Market Shares of Mobile Subscribers - All ....................................................... 12 Figure 12 Market Shares of Mobile Subscribers – Minor Players .................................... 12 Figure 13 Market Shares of Subscribers of TSEL, ISAT & XL ........................................ 13 Figure 14 Prepaid Mobile Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ................................................... 14 Figure 15 Postpaid Mobile Subscriber Base (2004-2008) .................................................. 15 Figure 16 Mobile Prepaid Portion 2004-2008 (All Operators) .......................................... 16 Figure 17 Mobile Prepaid Portion 2004-2008 .................................................................... 16 Figure 18 Wireless Subscriber Base (2004-2008) .............................................................. 17 Figure 19 Market Share of Wireless Subscribers 2008E .................................................. 18 Figure 20 Market Shares of Wireless Subscribers – 5 Major Operators .......................... 19 Figure 21 Market Shares of Wireless Subscribers – Minor Players ................................. 19

Table 1 FWL Subscriber Base (2004-2008) .......................................................................... 4 Table 2 Percentage of FWL Subscriber Base (2004-2008) .................................................. 4 Table 3 FWA Subscriber Base (2004-2008) .......................................................................... 6 Table 4 Percentage of FWA Subscriber Base (2004-2008) .................................................. 6 Table 5 Prepaid FWA Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ............................................................ 8 Table 6 Postpaid FWA Subscriber Base (2004-2008) .......................................................... 8 Table 7 Percentage of Prepaid Subscriber Base .................................................................. 8 Table 8 Mobile/Cellular Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ...................................................... 10 Table 9 Percentage of Mobile Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ............................................. 11 Table 10 Prepaid Mobile Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ..................................................... 14 Table 11 Postpaid Mobile Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ................................................... 14 Table 12 Percentage of Mobile Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ........................................... 15 Table 13 Wireless Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ................................................................ 17 Table 14 Percentage of Wireless Subscriber Base (2004-2008) ........................................ 18

No

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TLKM ISAT BBT

TLKM ISAT BBT

wos.Resear/www.ligar

Figu

2

2

Table

8,4

8,50

8,55

8,60

8,65

8,700

8,750

rch rvirtual.com

FW

ure 1 Fixe

2004E 8,559,350

20,000 2,878

Table 1

2004E 99.73 0.23 0.03

2 Percen

50,000

00,000

50,000

00,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

200

m/harewos

WL / P

ed Wirelin

2005E8,686,

21,2,

FWL Sub

2005E99.720.250.03

ntage of F

04E 2005E

Fixe

PSTN

ne Subsc

20,131 8,724,530

bscriber

2900

FWL Subs

2006E 20

ed Wire

Telec

N Cus

criber Bas

006E 8,709,211

26,6322,500

Base (200

006E 99.67 0.30 0.03

scriber B

007E 2008E

eline

com Custom

stom

se (2004-2

2007E 8,684,8

30,42,3

04-2008)

2007E 99.62 0.35 0.03

Base (2004

E

mer Bases –

mer B

2008)

20888 8479 393

209900

4-2008)

BBTISATTLKM

– Part 2

4

ase

008E 8,629,783

42,1452,300

008E 9.49 0.49 0.03

No

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ov. 7


F

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

rch rvirtual.com

Figure 2 M

2004E

F

m/harewos

Market S

2005E 2

FWL MMino

Share of F

2006E 2

Marketor Pla

Telec

FWL Mino

2007E 2

t Sharayers

com Custom

or Player

008E

e

mer Bases –

rs

ISATBBT

– Part 2

5

No

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TLKM ISAT BTEL M‐8



Table

5,000,0

10,000,0

15,000,00

20,000,00

25,000,00

rch rvirtual.com

Figure 3

2004E 1,429,368

62,716 192,029

0

Table 3

2004E 84.87 3.72 11.40 0.00

4 Percen

0

000

00

00

00

00

2004E

m/harewos

3 FWA Su

2005E4,061271486

FWA Sub

2005E84.285.6310.100.00

ntage of F

E 2005E

FWA S

FWA

ubscriber

E 21,8671,1586,604

0

bscriber

E 28

0

FWA Subs

2006E 2

Subsc

Telec

A Cus

r Base (20

2006E 4,175,853378,727

1,547,5570

Base (200

2006E 68.43 6.21 25.36 0.00

scriber B

2007E 20

ribers

com Custom

stom

004-2008)

2007E 6,362,627,

3,820,

04-2008)

2007E 58.85 5.81 35.34 0.00

Base (2004

008E

s

mer Bases –

mer B

20844 12934 701 70

206331

4-2008)

M-8BTELISATTLKM

– Part 2

6

ase

008E ,725,425761,589

7,304,543332,500

008E 0.24 3.61 4.58 1.57

LTM

No

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ov. 7

P

erce

ntag

e


0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

2

rch rvirtual.com

Figure

Figu

2004E

F

ISAT4%

BT35

FWA

m/harewos

4 FWA M

ure 5 FWA

2005E

FWA - M

T%

TEL5%

A Mark

Market Sh

A Market

2006E

Marke

M-81%

ket Sha

Telec

hares (200

t Share 20

2007E

et Shar

TL6

are - 2

com Custom

04-2008)

008E

2008E

re

LKM60%

2008E

mer Bases –

TISBM

– Part 2

7

TLKMSAT

BTELM-8

No

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TLKM ISAT BTEL


1

1

2

25


Figu

2

Tab

2

Tab

Ta

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

0,000,000

5,000,000

rch rvirtual.com

ure 6 Pre

2004E 745,200 48,592

130,340 0

ble 5 Pre

2004E 684,168 14,124 61,689

ble 6 Post

2004E 52.1 77.5 67.9 0.0

able 7 Pe

2004E 2

m/harewos

epaid FW

2005E3,240,251,4351,

paid FWA

2005E821,19,

134,

tpaid FWA

2005E79.8 92.7 72.3 0.0

ercentage

2005E 200

FWA P

WA Subscr

20567 3450826 10

A Subscri

20300 708 778

WA Subscr

20899

e of Prepa

06E 2007E

Prepai

Telec

riber Bas

006E 3,381,426358,182

1,414,9200

iber Base

006E 794,42720,545

132,637

riber Base

006E 81.0 94.6 91.4 0.0

aid Subsc

E 2008E

id

com Custom

e (2004-2

2007E 5,535,0594,2

3,695,8

e (2004-20

2007E 827,833,7

124,8

e (2004-20

2007E 87.0 94.6 96.7 0.0

criber Ba

mer Bases –

008)

2000 1103 17 70

008)

2044 31 84

008)

2098910

ase

M-8BTELISATTLKM

– Part 2

8

008E ,994,300681,362

7,196,518332,500

008E 731,12580,227

108,025

008E 4.3 9.5 8.5 00.0

No

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Figure

5

200

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

e 7 FWA P

Figure 8

55

04E

FWA

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2004E

FW

m/harewos

Prepaid P

8 FWA Pr

80

2005E

A Prep

2005E

WA Pr

Portion 2

repaid Po

84

2006E

paid P

2006E

repaid

Telec

004-2008

ortions 20

91

2007E

ortion

2007E 2

Portio

com Custom

(All Oper

004-2008

9

E 200

n (%)

2008E

on

mer Bases –

rators)

96

08E

TLKMISATBTEL

– Part 2

9

No

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ov. 7

TSEL ISAT XL M‐8 STI NTS HCPT Smart

1

1

1

16


Mo

Figu

201693

Tabl

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

rch rvirtual.com

obile

ure 9 Mob

004E 6,290,508 9,754,607 ,791,000 414,300

0 0 0 0

le 8 Mobi

0

0

0

2004E

Mobi

m/harewos

e/Cel

bile/Cellul

2005E 24,269,314,512,46,978,5794,910,621,5

ile/Cellul

2005E

le/Cell

lular

lar Subsc

20353 35453 16519 9900 1609 537 0 0

ar Subsc

2006E

lular S

Telec

r Cus

criber Ba

006E 5,597,1716,704,6399,527,9701,825,900134,71312,715

00

riber Bas

2007E

Subscr

com Custom

stom

ase (2004-

2007E 47,890,124,545,415,469,03,012,8310,4

4,72,039,4115,0

se (2004-2

2008E

ribers

mer Bases –

mer B

2008)

2039 6522 3600 2600 264 88 306 400 1

2008)

– Part 2

10

ase

008E ,299,991

6,510,2466,015,517,671,900784,343,234,800

4,500,609,530,823

SmartHCPTNTSSTIM-8XLISATTSEL

No

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ov. 7



2053110000

Table 9

F

X1

rch rvirtual.com

004E 3.85 2.25 2.53 1.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9 Percent

Figure 10

IS26

XL19%

M-82%

ST1%

Cellul

m/harewos

2005E 52.09 31.15 14.98 1.71 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.00

tage of M

0 Market

SAT6%

TI% NTS

2%

HC3%

lar Ma

2052120000

obile Sub

Share of

PT%

Smart1%

arket S

Telec

006E 5.79 6.18 4.93 2.86 0.21 0.02 0.00 0.00

bscriber B

Subscrib

Share

com Custom

2007E 51.28 26.28 16.56 3.23 0.33 0.01 2.18 0.12

Base (200

bers 2008E

T4

2008E

mer Bases –

2046251810231

04-2008)

E

SEL46%

E

– Part 2

11

008E 6.46 5.98 8.51 .90 .56 .30 .20 .09

No

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ov. 7

F

1

2

3

4

5

6

Per

cent

age


Figu

Figure 12

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

20

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Per

cent

age

rch rvirtual.com

ure 11 Ma

Market S

004E

Cel

2004E

Cel

m/harewos

arket Sha

Shares of

2005E

llular

2005E

llular

ares of Mo

f Mobile S

2006E

- Mark

2006E

- Mark

Telec

obile Sub

Subscribe

2007E

ket Sh

2007E 2

ket Sh

com Custom

bscribers

ers – Min

2008E

hare

2008E

hare

mer Bases –

- All

nor Player

E

M-8STINTSHCPTSmart

– Part 2

12

rs

TSELISATXLM-8STINTSHCPTSmart

No

Harewhttp://

ov. 7


Figure 1

98

200

rch rvirtual.com

13 Market

8.6

04E

TSEL

m/harewos

t Shares

98.2

2005E

L+ISAT

of Subscr

96.9

2006E

T+XL P

Telec

ribers of

94.1

2007E

Portio

com Custom

TSEL, IS

90

E 200

on (%)

mer Bases –

SAT & XL

0.9

08E

– Part 2

13

No

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Figur

Tabl

Table

20,00

40,00

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

rch rvirtual.com

re 14 Pre

2004E 14,962,959 9,214,663 3,743,000 396,700

0 0 0 0

le 10 Prep

2004E 1,327,549 539,944 48,000 17,600

0 0 0 0

e 11 Postp

0

00,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

200

P

m/harewos

paid Mob

2005E22,79813,8366,8027761021

paid Mob

2005E1,47067617618

paid Mob

04E 2005E

Prepaid

bile Subs

E 28,598 336,046 152,325 96,000 10,6091,537

00

bile Subsc

E 20,755 16,4076,1948,900

0000

bile Subsc

E 2006E 2

d Subs

Telec

criber Ba

2006E 3,935,246 5,878,780 9,141,331 1,778,200 133,746 10,155

0 0

criber Ba

2006E 1,661,925825,859386,63947,700

9672,560

00

criber Ba

2007E 20

scribe

com Custom

ase (2004-

2007E 45,977,023,945,414,988,02,920,2310,1

4,72,036,2115,0

ase (2004-

2007E 1,913,1599,9481,092,6

2

3,2

ase (2004-

08E

rs

mer Bases –

-2008)

20009 63431 35000 2500 276 88 302 4

000 1

2008)

20130 1991 000 600 288

0 204 0

-2008)


– Part 2

14

008E ,359,619,591,033,599,297,523,000784,129,234,800

4,490,202,456,372

008E ,940,372919,213416,220148,900

2140

10,40774,451

tT

No

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ov. 7



Figur

Table 1

500,0

1,000,0

1,500,0

2,000,0

2,500,0

3,000,0

3,500,00

4,000,00

rch rvirtual.com

re 15 Post

2004E 91.85 94.46 98.73 95.75

‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

2 Percen

0

000

000

000

000

000

00

00

00

2004E

Po

m/harewos

tpaid Mob

2005E93.9495.3497.4897.62

‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

tage of M

E 2005E

ostpai

bile Subs

E 2 9 9 9 9

97

Mobile Su

2006E 2

id Sub

Telec

scriber Ba

2006E 95.33 95.06 95.94 97.39 99.28 79.87

‐ ‐

bscriber

2007E 200

scribe

com Custom

ase (2004

2007E 96.01 97.56 96.89 96.93 99.91 100.00 99.84

‐

Base (20

08E

ers

mer Bases –

4-2008)

209797989499109995

04-2008)


– Part 2

15

008E 7.03 7.48 8.40 4.43 9.97 0.00 9.77 5.14

t

No

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ov. 7


Figure 1

93

200

88.00

90.00

92.00

94.00

96.00

98.00

100.00

rch rvirtual.com

16 Mobile

Figure 17

3.6

04E

Cellul

2004E

P

m/harewos

e Prepaid

7 Mobile

95.0

2005E

lar Pr

2005E

Prepaid

d Portion

Prepaid

95.4

2006E

epaid

2006E

d Port

Telec

2004-200

Portion 2

96.7

2007E

Portio

2007E

tion (%

com Custom

08 (All Op

2004-2008

97

E 200

on (%)

2008E

%)

mer Bases –

perators)

8

7.5

08E

TSELISATXL

– Part 2

16

L

No

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ov. 7

TSEL TLKM ISAT ISAT‐FWXL M‐8 M‐8 FWSTI NTS HCPT Smart BTEL

1

1

14

16

18


F

201619

WA 3

WA

T

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

00,000,000

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

rch rvirtual.com

igure 18 W

004E 6,290,508 1,429,368 9,754,607

62,716 ,791,000 414,300

0 0 0 0 0

192,029

Table 13 W

0

0

2004E

W

m/harewos

Wir

Wireless

2005E 24,269,34,061,8

14,512,4271,1

6,978,5794,9

10,621,5

486,6

Wireless S

2005E 2

Wireles

eless

Subscrib

20353 35867 4453 16158 519 9900 10

609 537 0 0

604 1

Subscrib

2006E 20

ss Subs

Telec

s Cus

ber Base (

006E 5,597,1714,175,8536,704,639378,727

9,527,9701,825,900

0134,71312,715

00

1,547,557

er Base (

007E 200

scribe

com Custom

stom

(2004-200

2007E 47,890,16,362,8

24,545,4627,9

15,469,03,012,8

310,44,7

2,039,4115,0

3,820,7

2004-2008

08E

ers

mer Bases –

mer B

08)

2039 6544 1222 3634 00 2600 20 64 88 306 400 101 7

8)

BTELSmartHCPTNTSSTIM-8 FM-8XLISAT-ISATTLKMTSEL

– Part 2

17

ase

008E ,299,991,725,425

6,510,246761,589

6,015,517,671,900332,500784,343,234,800

4,500,609,530,823

7,304,543

Lt

T

FWA

-FWA

M

No

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ov. 7

TSEL TLKM ISAT ISAT‐FWXL M‐8 M‐8 FWSTI NTS HCPT Smart BTEL

ISAT0.4


20543

WA 011

WA 000000

Table 14

Figur

-FWA47%

X16.

M-81.65%

M-8 FW0.21%

W

rch rvirtual.com

004E 1.01 4.48 0.55 0.20 1.87 1.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60

4 Percent

re 19 Mar

IS22

XL09%

8%

WA%

STI0.49%

NTS2.00% H

2

Wirele

m/harewos

2005E 47.21 7.90 28.23 0.53 13.58 1.55 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.95

tage of Wi

rket Shar

SAT.58%

HCPT2.78%

Smar0.95%

B4

ess Ma

20552012000002

ireless Su

re of Wire

rt%

BTEL4.52%

arket S

Telec

006E 0.92 5.97 3.90 0.54 3.63 2.61 0.00 0.19 0.02 0.00 0.00 2.21

ubscriber

eless Sub

TLKM7.87%

Share

com Custom

2007E 45.96 6.11 23.56 0.60 14.85 2.89 0.00 0.30 0.00 1.96 0.11 3.67

r Base (20

scribers

TSE40.39

2008E

mer Bases –

20407220161002204

004-2008)

2008E

EL9%

E

– Part 2

18

008E 0.39 .87 2.58 .47 6.09 .65 .21 .49 .00 .78 .95 .52

)

No

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ov. 7

Figu

Fi

1

2

3

4

5

6

Per

cent

age

0

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

Per

cent

age


ure 20 Ma

igure 21 M

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

20

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

200

rch rvirtual.com

arket Sha

Market S

004E

Wir

04E 20

Wir

m/harewos

ares of Wi

hares of W

2005E

reless

005E 2

reless

ireless Su

Wireless

2006E

- Mark

2006E

- Mark

Telec

ubscriber

Subscrib

2007E

ket Sh

2007E

ket Sh

com Custom

rs – 5 Maj

bers – Min

2008E

hare

2008E

hare

mer Bases –

jor Opera

nor Playe

TIXTB

ISATM-8M-8 FSTINTSHCPSmar

– Part 2

19

ators

ers

TSELISATXLTLKMBTEL

T-FWA

FWA

PTrt



Nov. 7

20

Abbreviations & Notes

2008E At the end of year 2008

FWA Fixed Wireless Access (Limited Mobile Service)

FWL Fixed Wire-Line

PSTN Public Switched Telephone Network

TLKM PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia (PT. Telkom)

ISAT PT. Indosat

XL PT. Excelcomindo Pratama

TSEL PT. Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel)

M-8/M8 PT. Mobile-8

BBT PT. Batam Bintan Telekomunikasi

NTS PT. Natrindo Telepon Selular

HCPT PT. Hutchison CP Telecommunication

Smart PT. Smart Telecom

STI PT. Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Indonesia

Data & Analytics

Telecom Customer Bases – Part 2