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10.05.2015 4As strategy festival

TELLING STORIES WITH DATA

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TOM MORTON DIRECTOR OF STRATEGY CO:COLLECTIVE @TOMMORTON @THEDATAOFCOOL @COCOLLECTIVE

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BRAND STRATEGISTS NEED TO GET GOOD AT DATA: HERE’S WHY

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THE WORLD IS MORE DATA-RICH. BUSINESSES EXPECT TO MAKE DATA-INFORMED DECISIONS. THIS SHOULD BE A WAKE-UP CALL TO STRATEGISTS.

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ONCE UPON A TIME…

"The account planner is that member of the agency's team who is the expert at working with information and getting it used - not just marketing research but all the information available to help solve the client's advertising problems.”

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— Name, 2005

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“Numerate graduates with an interest in human psychology.”

— Boase Massimi Pollitt recruitment ad, 1972

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SO WHERE WERE WE WHEN BUSINESS WENT FULL-ON DATA?

“You told us that market and technology factors are the two most powerful external forces affecting your organization today. The four biggest challenges you identified were the explosion of data, social media, the proliferation of channels and devices, shifting demographics.” Source: IBM CMO survey, 2011

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MCKINSEY CLAIMS THAT THE US ECONOMY NEEDS AT LEAST 1.5 MILLION MORE DATA PROFESSIONALS

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— Name, 2005

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“Separating the poets from the quants will be a disaster for strategic planning in particular, allowing some planners to exempt themselves from the data they can't be bothered to investigate, and allowing other people to think that they are a strategist though they haven't a brand strategy or creative bone in their body.” — Richard Huntingdon, Saatchi & Saatchi, 2012

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— Name, 2005

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“Data doesn’t narrow your choices. It opens your mind.”

— Venetia Taylor, Google, June 2015

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STRATEGISTS’ USE OF DATA NEEDS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM OPTIMIZING AT THE END TO INSPIRING AT THE BEGINNING.

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DATA IS JUST EVIDENCE OF HUMAN BEHAVIOR. THE MATH IS PRETTY BASIC. THIS SHOULD BE A HOME GAME FOR GOOD STRATEGISTS.

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SEVEN STORIES ABOUT TELLING STORIES WITH DATA

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1. WHEN WORKING OUT THE ARITHMETIC OF THE PROBLEM REVEALS A NEW ANSWER

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WHERE DOES A SUPERMARKET FIND AN EXTRA £2.5 BILLION OF CUSTOMER SPENDING?

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14 MILLION CUSTOMERS X 52 WEEKLY SHOPS X 3 YEARS X AN EXTRA £1.14 PER VISIT = £2.5 BILLION

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HOW DO YOU FIND A DISRUPTIVE WAY IN TO MUSIC TEACHING?

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85%

WISH THEY LEARNED TO PLAY AN INSTRUMENT

34%

TOOK A MUSIC CLASS

8%

REGULARLY PLAY AN INSTRUMENT

Source: Gallup 2009, Statista 2008, US census 2009, New York Times 2012

1%

PLAY WEEKLY

WORKING OUT THE ARITHMETIC BEHIND LEARNING MUSIC

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MUSIC PRODIGY IF THE CHALLENGE IS THAT PEOPLE STOP LEARNING, WHY NOT CHARGE THEM FOR STOPPING?

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2. HOW A MAGIC NUMBER CAN BECOME A PIVOT FOR EVERYTHING ELSE

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SKATERS SPEND 40% OF THEIR SKATING TIME REPAIRING THEIR BOARDS

Source: Mountain Dew Jay Chiat awards paper, 2015

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95% OF ATTEMPTS TO QUIT SMOKING END IN FAILURE

HALF OF ALL ATTEMPTS TO QUIT SMOKING BEGIN SPONTANEOUSLY

Source: GSK; University College Hospital

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MORE THAN 90% OF BRITISH PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT CHILDREN SHOULD DRINK MORE MILK

MILK DRINKING AMONG BRITISH CHILDREN HAS FALLEN EVERY YEAR SINCE THE 1950s

Source: The Dairy Council, IPA Effectiveness Awards, 2002

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MANAGING VOLATILITY

50%

Of US adults could not cover an emergency $400 outlay without borrowing money or selling something

THE SCALE OF THE PROBLEM

$103BN

Revenue of the ‘alternative’ financial service industry: check cashing, pawn shops, payday loans

BORROWING COSTS

$1,100

Low income households’ typical annual outlay on alternative financial services

UNDERSTANDING THE POVERTY TRAP

Source: US Federal Reserve, Ideas 42

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3. HOW ASKING QUESTIONS OF THE DATA GAVE DIFFERENT ANSWERS

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WHAT’S HAPPENING TO AXE BRAND USAGE ?

11-18 PENETRATION IS HOLDING STEADY

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Axe user penetration, age 11-18

Source: Axe APG paper via BBH London

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WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING TO AXE BRAND USAGE ?

11-18 PENETRATION IS HOLDING STEADY 11-12 PENETRATION IS RISING 17-18 PENETRATION IS FALLING 11 to 12 13 to 14 15 to 16 17 to 18

Axe user penetration, age 11-18

Source: Axe APG paper via BBH London

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GETTING DRESSED GOLD APG PAPER CANNES FILM LION https://vimeo.com/44675170

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4. WHEN SEARCH REVEALS HOW REAL PEOPLE REALLY FEEL ABOUT YOUR BRAND

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SEARCH TREND FOR OMBRE HAIR

Source: Google Trends, USA, 2004-present

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RISING TREND

OMBRE DIP DYE

FOLLOWUP SEARCH

HOW CAN I DO OMBRE HAIR MYSELF?

THE RESULT

OMBRE APPLICATOR KIT

HOW WOMEN REALLY THINK ABOUT HAIR

Source: https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/case-studies/loreal-paris-builds-brand-love-with-search.html

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THE CATEGORY

ORGANIZED BY NEED

Dry hair Flyaway hair Red hair

THE CONSUMER

SEARCHED BY OCCASION

Date hair Beach hair Wedding hair

THE RESULT

HAIRSTYLE.COM

L’Oreal site Inspiration and education by occasion

HOW WOMEN REALLY THINK ABOUT HAIR

Source: https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/case-studies/loreal-paris-builds-brand-love-with-search.html

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SEARCH TREND FOR ROSE WINE: THE ULTIMATE SUMMER DRINK HAS A WINTER PEAK

Source: Google Trends, worldwide, 2009-14 / thanks to Think With Google

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5. HOW DATA CAN SHINE A LIGHT ON EVEN THE MOST SUBJECTIVE CULTURAL QUESTIONS

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IS ART BECOMING MORE OR LESS POPULAR?

VISUAL CULTURE IS EXPLODING, BUT BEYOND THE WALLS OF MUSEUMS

Source: NEA’s A Decade of Arts Engagement: Findings from the Survey of Public Participation in the Arts, 2002-2012; National Center for Education Statistics Data from 1970 - 2011

US adults attending art museums / galleries

2002, 2008, 2012

27%

21%

+104%

+209%

Growth in all Bachelors Degrees

Growth in Visual and Performing

Arts Degrees

420m users 206m registered blogs 120k signups per day 900 posts per second

Fastest growing social app in 2014

300m users 100% growth in adults users 2012 – 14

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WHAT MAKES GREAT TELEVISION?

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THE HIGHEST-RATED TV SHOWS ON ROTTEN TOMATOES

Source: Rotten Tomatoes

2012

2013 2014

Sherlock Homeland Game of Thrones Mad Men Girls Justified Don’t Trust The B… Luck The Walking Dead New Girl

Breaking Bad Game Of Thrones The Returned Mad Men Girls Orange Is The New Black The Walking Dead Nashville Masters of Sex The Americans

Jane The Virgin The Good Wife Hannibal Veep Fargo Transparent Orphan Black The Americans The Walking Dead Orange Is The New Black

   

   

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RECURRING THEMES

The old order is falling: The Americans, GoT, The Walking Dead, Veep, Mad Men, Orphan Black Exploring sexuality: Masters Of Sex, Girls, Transparent, Jane The Virgin Strong women: Orange Is The New Black, The Good Wife, Veep, GoT, Mad Men, Orphan Black Epic productions: Luck, Game Of Thrones, Sherlock Serials: Breaking Bad, The Good Wife, Mad Men, Game Of Thrones, The Americans Sequels: 60% of top-rated shows are sequels Source: Co:Collective analysis

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WHERE ARE ALL THE COOL KIDS?

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HIPSTER SEARCH TERMS    

   

Source: GOOGLE TRENDS

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WHERE ARE THESE HIPSTER SEARCH TERMS CONCENTRATED?    

   

Source: GOOGLE TRENDS

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6. WHEN AGGREGATED DATA SHOWS PATTERNS ABOUT HOW BRANDS BEHAVE IN GENERAL

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PANEL DATA ACROSS CATEGORIES, COUNTRIES AND YEARS TELLS US THAT BRANDS GROW THROUGH PENETRATION, NOT LOYALTY

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LOYALTY RATES ARE SIMILAR FOR SIMILAR-SIZED BRANDS

Source: MRI, 2012

Restaurant Visited in last 6 months (MM)

Visited in last 1 month (MM)

% of visitors who are regulars

Olive Garden 41 25 61

Red Lobster 29 18 62

Chili’s 27 17 63

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ENGAGEMENT RATES FOR PASSION BRANDS: HARLEY, TIFFANY, NIKE

0.66%

ENGAGEMENT RATES FOR ALL BRANDS ON FACEBOOK

0.45%

ENGAGEMENT RATES FOR THE TOP 10 BRANDS ON FACEBOOK

0.33%

FANS ARE FEW IN NUMBER AND LESS ENGAGED THAN YOU THINK: GROWTH COMES FROM MANY LIGHT BUYERS; ACQUAINTANCES, NOT FANS

Source: Facebook engagement rates reported in Ad Age, 27 January 2012

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THAT’S WHY BRANDS TEND TO GROW ON THE BACK OF PENETRATION, NOT LOYALTY

Source: IPA Effectiveness Awards case studies, quoted in Les Binet & Peter Field, Marketing In The Era Of Accountability

% of effective ad campaigns reporting very large effects on

Loyalty campaigns Penetration campaigns

Sales 35 62

Market share 15 35

Profit 18 31

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7. WHEN YOU SEE BUSINESS DATA DIFFERENTLY THROUGH A MARKETING EYE

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PANIC! ONLY ONE IN EIGHT OUR CUSTOMERS IS A PRIMARY SHOPPER!

Source: Bain & Co survey of west coast grocery shoppers, 2013

Store Client

% of customers who are primary shoppers

12

% of customers who are secondary shoppers

88

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ACTUALLY, EVEN THE BIGGEST SUPERMARKETS DEPEND ON SECONDARY SHOPPERS: WHAT IF IT’S A SIGNAL OF A MORE REPERTOIRE WORLD?

Source: Bain & Co survey of west coast grocery shoppers, 2013

Store Client Fresh & Easy

Costco Aldi Trader Joe’s

Wal-Mart Supercenter

Von’s Ralph’s Safeway

% of customers who are primary shoppers

12 15 17 18 19 27 28 32 33

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OH SHOOT! PRICE OR QUALITY DON’T PREDICT THE BEST-LOVED BRANDS: NET PROMOTER SCORE OF KEY GROCERY RETAILERS

Source: Bain & Co survey of west coast grocery shoppers, 2013

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ACTUALLY, THE DATA SHOWS HOW PEOPLE LIKE THE BRANDS THAT ARE DIFFERENT

Source: Co:Collective analysis of Bain & Co survey of west coast grocery shoppers, 2013

Store Costco Trader Joe’s WinCo Wholefoods

Net promoter score

72 71 53 40

Distinctive features

Members only Bulk sales only One-off megadeals on nonfood items

Private label Limited SKUs ‘Treasure hunt’

Employee-owned Open 24/7 No credit cards Bag your own groceries

Premium price Organic Gourmet meets health food

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DATA STORY SLAM

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HOW COULD YOU USE DATA TO TELL THE STORY OF TINDER?

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TINDER MOBILE DATING MARKET SHARE

Source: Mobida

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TINDER AVAILABLE MARKET 51% OF US ADULTS ARE SINGLE

TINDER USERS 50MM USERS 12MM DAILY

TINDER USAGE 1 BN SWIPES 12MM MATCHES 77 MINUTES EVERY DAY

TINDER NUMBERS

Source: BBH New York, CityLab

2015 REVENUE TARGET $75 MILLION

ADVERTISING REVENUE $22.5 MILLION

SUBSCRIPTION $10/MO FOR THE PREMIUM PRODUCT Tinder Plus Unlimited swipes Undo mistaken swipes Passport feature allows you to search people from outside your area

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Q1. WHAT INSIGHTS AND ASSUMPTIONS CAN WE MAKE ABOUT TINDER? Q2. HOW SHOULD TINDER THINK ABOUT HITTING ITS $75MM REVENUE TARGET?

SO HOW WOULD YOU USE THIS DATA, AND WHAT YOU’VE LEARNED HERE, TO ANSWER TWO BASIC QUESTIONS?

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THANK YOU.

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SOURCES, REFERENCES AND INSPIRATION

FOLLOW @THINKWITHGOOGLE @FIVETHIRTYEIGHT @PROFBYRON @THEDATAOFCOOL READ BYRON SHARP, HOW BRANDS GROW LES BINET AND PETER FIELD, THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT