USA DOE – OIL STATISTICS

WEEK 342016

ARNAUD BOUCARD

The opinions expressed in this report are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of my employer, Thomson Reuters

Source: US Department of Energy

AGENDA

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 03

1. CRUDE OIL 04

2. GASOLINE 06

3. DISTILLATES 08

4. KEROZENE 10

5. REFINERY 12

II. ANNEXE 13

2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYDOE – STATISTICS

Crude stocks built by 2 501 kb to 523 594 kb versus an expected drawdown of 455 kb. This build was driven by PADD 3 with a rise of 515 kb, and higher crude imports ( 448 kb/d). Stocks are 145 678 kb above the 5y average (377 916 kb). Furthermore, stocks are 886 kb over the 4w average (522 709 kb), and 72 833 kb above the last year (450 761 kb).

Cushing stocks built by 375 kb to 64 906 kb. I t's 26 220 kb above the 5y Average (38 686 kb), 210 kb superior to the 4w average (64 696 kb), and 7 211 kb superior to the last year (57 695 kb).

The downward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Gasoline stocks built by 36 kb to 232 694 kb versus an expected contraction of 1 166 kb. I t is 21 240 kb/d over the 5y Average (211 454 kb), 27 601 kb/d over the 4w average (205 094 kb), and 19 919 kb/d over the last year (212 775 kb). The gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 1 363 kb. With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 34 (over 5 past years).

For a 2de consecutive week, Distillates stocks gained 121 kb to 153 257 kb versus an expected gain of 1 166 kb. that is 16 567 kb/d above the 5y Average (136 690 kb), 24 925 kb/d superior to the 4w average (128 332 kb), and 3 421 kb/d over the last year (149 836 kb). The build was driven by PADD 5 with a rise of 233 kb, and higher Distillates imports ( 132 kb/d).

For a 3th consecutive week, Kerosene stocks built by 103 kb to 41 751 kb, which is 1 629 kb/d above the 5y Average (40 122 kb), 229 kb/d superior to the 4w average (41 522 kb), and 58 kb/d over the last year (41 693 kb). The build was driven by PADD 1 with a rise of 1 408 kb, and lower implied demand (- 211 kb/d).

Refinery Run fall 1.04 pt versus an expected fall of 0.50 pt.

3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Change Level

2,501 523,594

375 64,906

36 232,694

121 153,257

103 41,751

-1.04 92.45%

Difference

400

-0.50

2,956

1,202

-279

-0.54

Current Week

Crude Oil - Lower 48

Crude Oil - Cushing

Gasoline

Distillates

Kerozene

Refinery Run

Thomson Reuters

Survey

-455

-1,166

WEEK 342016

CRUDE OIL

4

Storage (kb) Cushing (Oklahoma) - Storage (kb)

320,000335,000350,000365,000380,000395,000410,000425,000440,000455,000470,000485,000500,000515,000530,000545,000

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

4,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,3006,6006,9007,2007,5007,8008,1008,4008,7009,0009,3009,6009,900

18,00022,00026,00030,00034,00038,00042,00046,00050,00054,00058,00062,00066,00070,00074,000

6,5006,8507,2007,5507,9008,2508,6008,9509,3009,650

10,00010,350

21.022.023.024.025.026.027.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0

CRUDE OILEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Crude Stocks built by 2 501 kb to 523 594 kb. This build was driven by PADD 3 with a rise of 515 kb, and higher crude imports ( 448 kb/d).

Stocks levels of PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 4, PADD 5 moved by 3 053 kb, - 570 kb, 347 kb, - 843 kb respectively.

Stocks are 145 678 kb above the 5y average (377 916 kb). Furthermore, stocks are 886 kb over the 4w average (522 709 kb), and 72 833 kb above the last year (450 761 kb).

Weekly crude run (refinery input) reduced by 187 kb/d to 16 678 kb/d. 4w Average reached 16 678 kb/d (- 187 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 31.3 days of supply.

Cushing stocks built by 375 kb to 64 906 kb. I t's 26 220 kb above the 5y Average (38 686 kb), 210 kb superior to the 4w average (64 696 kb), and 7 211 kb superior to the last year (57 695 kb).

Crude production declined by 49 kb/d to 8 548 kb/d. That is 1 063 kb/d above the 5y Average (7 485 kb), 36 kb/d superior to the 4w average (8 513 kb/d), and 789 kb/d inferior to the last year (9 337 kb).

Crude imports built by 448 kb/d to 8 642 kb/d. I t's 340 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (8 302 kb), 147 kb/d superior to the 4w average (8 495 kb/d), and 1 443 kb/d superior to the last year (7 199 kb).

US imports: Canada (3 015 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (1 150 kb/d), Mexico ( 406 kb/d), Venezuela ( 909 kb/d), Kuwait ( 186 kb/d), Colombia ( 835 kb/d), Ecuator ( 226 kb/d), and Angola ( 268 kb/d), and Iraq ( 403 kb/d), and Nigeria ( 336 kb/d), and Others ( 908 kb/d).

5

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation8/19/2016 8/12/2016 vs current vs current 8/21/2015 vs current vs current

IMPLIED DEMAND (kbl /day) Implied Demand 16,678 16,865 -187 16,748 -70 16,658 20 15,963 715REFINERY INPUT (kbl /day) Total 16,678 16,865 -187 16,748 -70 16,658 20 15,963 715

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,097 1,037 60 1,069 28 1,197 -100 1,113 -16PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,734 3,734 0 3,741 -7 3,567 167 3,509 225PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,712 8,956 -244 8,829 -117 8,629 83 8,224 488PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 591 588 3 594 -3 642 -51 594 -3PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,544 2,550 -6 2,515 29 2,623 -79 2,524 20

PRODUCTION (kbl / day) Total 8,548 8,597 -49 8,513 36 9,337 -789 7,485 1,063IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 8,642 8,194 448 8,495 147 7,199 1,443 8,302 340

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,278 692 586 1,065 213 743 535 839 439PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 2,142 2,659 -517 2,319 -177 2,195 -53 1,886 256PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 3,473 3,675 -202 3,518 -45 2,792 681 4,032 -559PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 361 270 91 310 51 242 119 288 73PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 1,388 898 490 1,282 106 1,227 161 1,257 131

STORAGE (kbl) Total 523,594 521,093 2,501 522,709 886 450,761 72,833 377,916 145,678

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 20,116 17,063 3,053 18,366 1,750 15,770 4,346 12,237 7,879PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 152,435 153,005 -570 152,513 -78 139,198 13,237 104,965 47,470

Cushing (Oklahoma) 64,906 64,531 375 64,696 210 57,695 7,211 38,686 26,220PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 272,639 272,124 515 271,723 917 222,756 49,883 190,517 82,122PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 26,731 26,384 347 26,038 693 21,912 4,819 18,557 8,174PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 51,674 52,517 -843 54,070 -2,396 51,125 549 51,640 34

GASOLINE

WEEK 342016

Storage (kb) Price

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

6

8,2508,4258,6008,7758,9509,1259,3009,4759,6509,825

10,00010,17510,35010,525

195,000200,000205,000210,000215,000220,000225,000230,000235,000240,000245,000250,000255,000260,000

300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500

21.7522.5023.2524.0024.7525.5026.2527.0027.7528.5029.2530.00

GASOLINEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

7

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation8/19/2016 8/12/2016 vs current vs current 8/21/2015 vs current vs current

IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 9,659 9,762 -103 9,736 -77 9,189 470 9,079 580REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 10,035 10,035 10,280 10,101 -66 8,936 1,099 8,855 1,180 Adjustement (Blend) 7 -358 365 -138 145 -1,038 1,045 -628 635 PADD 1 - East Coast 3,277 3,361 -84 3,308 -31 3,186 91 3,061 216 PADD 2 - Midw est 2,656 2,686 -30 2,709 -53 2,585 71 2,366 290 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,054 2,301 -247 2,197 -143 2,207 -153 2,104 -50 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 343 341 2 338 5 328 15 326 17 PADD 5 - West Coast 1,698 1,704 -6 1,688 10 1,668 30 1,626 72IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 800 610 190 744 56 630 170 666 134 PADD 1 - East Coast 662 538 124 648 14 569 93 631 31 PADD 2 - Midw est 15 9 6 9 6 3 12 4 11 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 100 0 100 54 46 16 84 16 84 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 3 -3 2 -2 7 -7 0 0 PADD 5 - West Coast 23 60 -37 31 -8 35 -12 42 -19STORAGE (kbl) Total 232,694 232,658 36 205,094 27,601 212,775 19,919 211,454 21,240 PADD 1 - East Coast 69,114 70,125 -1,011 70,368 -1,254 59,535 9,579 56,268 12,846 PADD 2 - Midw est 48,362 48,618 -256 49,878 -1,516 46,820 1,542 47,801 561 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 77,958 76,595 1,363 77,601 357 73,407 4,551 73,126 4,832 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 6,973 7,105 -132 7,302 -329 6,317 656 6,471 502 PADD 5 - West Coast 30,287 30,215 72 29,583 705 26,696 3,591 27,787 2,500DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE)

The downward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Gasoline stocks built by 36 kb to 232 694 kb, which is 21 240 kb/d over the 5y Average (211 454 kb), 27 601 kb/d over the 4w average (205 094 kb), and 19 919 kb/d over the last year (212 775 kb).

The gain was led by PADD 3 with a build of 1 363 kb.

PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by-1 011 kb, - 256 kb, - 132 kb, 72 kb

With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 34 (over 5 past years).

Weekly volume supplied of Gasoline drew by 103 kb/d to 9 659 kb/d. 4w Average reached 9 736 kb (- 77 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 23.9 days of supply.

Gasoline production built by 10 280 kb/d to 10 035 kb/d. That is 1 180 kb/d over the 5y Average (8 855 kb), 66 kb/d under the 4w average (10 101 kb), and 1 099 kb/d over the last year (8 936 kb).

Gasoline imports gained 190 kb/d to 800 kb/d. I t's 134 kb/d above the 5y Average ( 666 kb), 56 kb/d over the 4w average ( 744 kb), and 170 kb/d over the last year ( 630 kb).

DISTILLATES

WEEK 342016

Storage (kb)

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

8

97,500105,000112,500120,000127,500135,000142,500150,000157,500165,000172,500180,000

21.7522.5023.2524.0024.7525.5026.2527.0027.7528.5029.2530.00

2575

125175225275325375425475525575

3,8003,9254,0504,1754,3004,4254,5504,6754,8004,9255,0505,1755,300

Price

DISTILLATESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

9

8/19/2016 8/12/2016 vs current vs current 8/21/2015 vs current vs currentIMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 3,790 3,488 302 3,705 85 3,601 189 3,700 90REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 4,850 4,939 -89 4,868 -18 4,907 -57 4,846 4 PADD 1 - East Coast 357 348 9 339 19 359 -2 374 -17 PADD 2 - Midwest 1,073 987 86 1,035 39 959 114 1,041 32 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,626 2,841 -215 2,734 -108 2,813 -187 2,687 -61 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 178 173 5 179 -1 200 -22 183 -5 PADD 5 - West Coast 616 590 26 582 34 576 40 562 54IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 224 92 132 149 75 123 101 133 91 PADD 1 - East Coast 159 64 95 120 39 79 80 102 57 PADD 2 - Midwest 2 3 -1 2 0 0 2 4 -2 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 PADD 5 - West Coast 63 25 38 27 36 44 19 22 41STORAGE (kbl) Total 153,257 153,136 121 128,332 24,925 149,836 3,421 136,690 16,567 PADD 1 - East Coast 61,846 61,919 -73 60,665 1,181 54,672 7,174 48,226 13,620 PADD 2 - Midwest 29,668 29,641 27 30,001 -333 30,643 -975 29,287 381 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 44,536 44,527 9 44,829 -293 47,214 -2,678 43,156 1,380 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 3,267 3,342 -75 3,422 -155 3,810 -543 3,428 -161 PADD 5 - West Coast 13,940 13,707 233 13,768 172 13,497 443 12,592 1,348DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 41.4

For a 2de consecutive week, Distillates stocks gained 121 kb to 153 257 kb, which is 16 567 kb/d above the 5y Average (136 690 kb), 24 925 kb/d superior to the 4w average (128 332 kb), and 3 421 kb/d over the last year (149 836 kb).

The build was driven by PADD 5 with a rise of 233 kb, and higher Distillates imports ( 132 kb/d).

PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4 storage levels moved respectively by- 73 kb, 27 kb, 9 kb, - 75 kb

Weekly volume supplied of Distillates built by 302 kb/d to 3 790 kb/d. 4w Average reached 3 705 kb (+ 85 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 41.4 days of supply.

Distillates production contracted by 89 kb/d to 4 850 kb/d. That is 4 kb/d over the 5y Average (4 846 kb), 18 kb/d below the 4w average (4 868 kb), and 57 kb/d below the last year (4 907 kb).

Distillates imports built by 132 kb/d to 224 kb/d. I t's 91 kb/d over the 5y Average ( 133 kb), 75 kb/d over the 4w average ( 149 kb), and 101 kb/d above the last year ( 123 kb).

KEROSENE

WEEK 342016

Storage (kb)

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

10

32,00033,35034,70036,05037,40038,75040,10041,45042,80044,15045,50046,85048,200

20.0021.0022.0023.0024.0025.0026.0027.0028.0029.0030.0031.0032.0033.0034.0035.00

1,1851,2351,2851,3351,3851,4351,4851,5351,5851,6351,6851,7351,785

03570

105140175210245280315350385420

Price

KEROSENEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

11

IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 1,659 1,870 -211 1,746 -87 1,680 -21 1,574 85REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 1,786 1,849 -63 1,809 -23 1,588 198 1,584 202 PADD 1 - East Coast 91 89 2 89 3 87 4 78 13 PADD 2 - Midw est 282 281 1 276 6 250 32 250 32 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 869 922 -53 899 -30 752 117 772 97 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 44 41 3 41 4 37 7 33 11 PADD 5 - West Coast 500 516 -16 505 -5 462 38 451 49IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 44 182 -138 101 -57 136 -92 82 -38 PADD 1 - East Coast 10 44 -34 37 -27 25 -15 39 -29 PADD 2 - Midw est 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 5 - West Coast 34 138 -104 63 -29 111 -77 43 -9STORAGE (kbl) Total 41,751 41,648 103 41,522 229 41,693 58 40,122 1,629 PADD 1 - East Coast 9,997 8,589 1,408 9,751 246 11,470 -1,473 10,818 -821 PADD 2 - Midw est 6,866 6,648 218 6,454 413 6,535 331 6,798 68 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 14,510 16,009 -1,499 15,353 -843 14,326 184 13,177 1,333 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 798 687 111 718 80 664 134 618 180 PADD 5 - West Coast 9,580 9,715 -135 9,246 334 8,698 882 8,710 870DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 23.9

For a 3th consecutive week, Kerosene stocks built by 103 kb to 41 751 kb, which is 1 629 kb/d above the 5y Average (40 122 kb), 229 kb/d superior to the 4w average (41 522 kb), and 58 kb/d over the last year (41 693 kb).

The build was driven by PADD 1 with a rise of 1 408 kb, and lower implied demand (- 211 kb/d).

PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by 218 kb, -1 499 kb, 111 kb, - 135 kb

Weekly volume supplied of Kerozene fell by 211 kb/d to 1 659 kb/d. 4w Average reached 1 746 kb (- 87 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 23.9 days of supply.

Kerosene production fell by 63 kb/d to 1 786 kb/d. That is 202 kb/d above the 5y Average (1 584 kb), 23 kb/d behind the 4w average (1 809 kb), and 198 kb/d over the last year (1 588 kb).

Kerosene imports contracted by 138 kb/d to 44 kb/d. I t's 38 kb/d under the 5y Average ( 82 kb), 57 kb/d inferior to the 4w average ( 101 kb), and 92 kb/d below the last year ( 136 kb).

REFINERY RUNEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

12

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation8/19/2016 8/12/2016 vs current vs current 8/21/2015 vs current

OPERABLE CAPACITY (kbl / day) Total USA 18,321 18,321 0 18,321 0 17,962 359 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,278 1,278 0 1,278 0 1,269 9 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,924 3,924 0 3,924 0 3,842 82 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 9,515 9,515 0 9,515 0 9,271 244 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 680 680 0 680 0 647 33 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,924 2,924 0 2,924 0 2,933 -9GROSS INPUT (kbl / day) Total USA 16,937 17,127 -190 17,011 -74 16,980 -43 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,090 1,076 14 1,073 18 1,198 -108 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,752 3,734 18 3,747 5 3,569 183 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,783 9,014 -231 8,911 -128 8,866 -83 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 589 589 0 595 -6 636 -47 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,723 2,714 9 2,686 37 2,711 12% UTILISATION Total USA 92.45% 93.48% -1.04 92.85% -0.40 94.53% -2.09 PADD 1 - East Coast 85.29% 84.19% 1.10 83.92% 1.37 94.41% -9.12 PADD 2 - Midwest 95.62% 95.16% 0.46 95.48% 0.13 92.89% 2.72 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 92.31% 94.73% -2.43 93.65% -1.35 95.63% -3.32 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 86.62% 86.62% 0.00 87.46% -0.85 98.30% -11.68 PADD 5 - West Coast 93.13% 92.82% 0.31 91.85% 1.27 92.43% 0.69OUTPUT (kbl / day) : Motor Gas / Distillate / Kerozene / Residual Total USA 17,099 17,585 -486 17,328 -229 16,847 252 PADD 1 - East Coast 3,773 3,841 -68 3,779 -6 3,679 94 PADD 2 - Midwest 4,072 3,986 86 4,075 -3 3,861 211 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 5,771 6,262 -491 6,028 -257 5,931 -160 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 575 568 7 568 7 583 -8 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,908 2,928 -20 2,878 30 2,793 115