Economic Development Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit Initial Findings – Rail~Volution 2015

Research Need

BRT to play growing role

Aim to increase job accessibility

Need station area job growth

LRT known in TC, BRT not

Research Question

What determines job growth prospects in BRT station areas?

How and in what circumstances do those prospects differ from LRT?

Study Regions & Modes

Data Sources

Data   Source  

GTFS (Stops, routes & modes)   Transit providers  

Built environment  EPA Smart Location Database  

Transportation system  

Job growth/loss LEHD Workplace Area Characteristics

Socioeconomics   American Community Survey  

Approach

Before/after yearly job change

Sector and wage

By station areas

LRT reference point

Poisson (count of jobs gained/lost)

“Collar Color” (status measure)

Model

Variables

Response variable: "After" station area change in job category/year Explanatory variables: "Before" station area change in job category/year "After" metro change in job category/year Station area jobs in category at implementation Station area population density Station area job density Metro population density Metro job density Arterial BRT station Full-featured BRT station Years since implementation Total street mileage in station area Distance from CBD Distance from next station Poverty rate % minority residents

Jobs

Density

Transitway

Built Environment

Social

Strength of Effects: Blue collar jobs

Response variable: "After" station area change in blue collar jobs/year Explanatory variables:

Metro population density + + + "After" metro change in blue collar jobs/year + +

Total street mileage in station area + "Before" station area change in blue collar jobs/year -

Station area blue collar jobs at implementation - - Metro job density - - -

Strength of Effects: Pink collar jobs

Response variable: "After" station area change in pink collar jobs/year Explanatory variables:

Station area population density - Distance from next station

Arterial BRT station - - Full-featured BRT station

"Before" station area change in pink collar jobs/year Station area pink collar jobs at implementation - - -

Strength of Effects: White collar jobs

Response variable: "After" station area change in white collar jobs/year Explanatory variables:

Total street mileage in station area + + % minority residents + Arterial BRT station - Distance from CBD - -

Strength of Effects: Low wage jobs

Response variable: "After" station area change in low wage jobs/year Explanatory variables:

Station area low wage jobs at implementation + + + Total street mileage in station area + +

"After" metro change in low wage jobs/year + Arterial BRT station -

Strength of Effects: High wage jobs

Response variable: "After" station area change in high wage jobs/year Explanatory variables:

Total street mileage in station area + + + % minority residents + +

"After" metro change in high wage jobs/year + Distance from CBD - Arterial BRT station

- - Poverty rate

Metro job density - - -

Conclusions

Mix of regional & local determinants

Fixed infrastructure matters.

BRT needs pro-active job growth promotion efforts.

Recommendations

Stress corridor identity for ABRT.

Focus on dense, connected street network.

Consider equity, spatial mismatch.

Contacts: Andrew Guthrie (612) 625-4534 guth0064@umn.edu Yingling Fan (612) 626-2930 yingling@umn.edu

Thank you!