CSSA

2006

anthony fitzhenry

Microsoft - Bill Gatessaid…• In the last decade technology has transformed

the world of business in profound ways. • 10 years ago;

– e-mail was just emerging as the medium for business communication

– e-commerce was in its infancy– most companies still relied on faxes and phone calls

to conduct business– virtually no mobile phones

Microsoft - Bill Gates• Today:

– instantaneous communications everywhere – mobile access to e-mail is becoming the norm

• Future:– faster networks– computer processing and storage will continue to

increase in performance and decrease in price in accordance with Moore's Law

– high-definition screens will be cheaper, lighter and more portable

– mobile phones will rival today's desktop PCs for power and storage

Microsoft - Bill Gates• All of these changes have overwhelmed the

tools we use to do our day-to-day jobs.

• Microsoft is focused on creating software– Windows Vista – Microsoft Office SharePoint Server 2007– Microsoft Office Outlook 2007– 2007 Office System

• Software that streamlines how we find, use and share business information.

Apple

In 2005; Steve Jobs bows to Windows…finally

Apple

In 2006; Apple & Intel…at last

Communications

• In 2005; Europe overtook North America as the second-largest broadband market in the world.

• In 2005; Nokia sold its 1 billionth cell phone since beginning in the 1980s. In Nigeria…

• In 2005, an estimated 18 million mobiles sold UK

• In 2005; a Taiwanese company with a brand created less than four years ago, took over the mobile business of Siemens, one of Europe’s most traditional brands. Siemens paid them 350M euros to do this.

• In 2005; eBay bought a company with no revenue model for $2.6 billion in cash and $1.5 b in stock.

• In 2005, Pope Benedict XVI sent his first text message-- "Let us go forth in the joy of the risen Lord and trusting in his permanent help--" to all TIM mobile phone users who subscribe to a service of the pope's daily messages.

Imaging

• In 2005; exports of digital cameras from Japan fell for the first time

• In 2005; The German photography giant Agfa failed

• In 2005; researchers in Germany demo’d the worlds first digital projector in a cell phone

New uses for mobile phone images

• In 2005, A British chef bitten by the world's deadliest spider was saved after snapping a photo of it with his camera phone.

In 2005; NORRATH a virtual economy…became the 61st biggest economy in the world!

The phenomenon of growth in gaming…

Gaming

Gaming

• In 2005, Sony’s EVERQUEST II virtual economy, became the 39th largest economy in the world. And hackers showed their appreciation by fleecing the economy and causing 20% inflation in 24 hours.

• In 2005, women over 40 accounted for the largest population of online gamers…bigger than teenage males.

2005 Killer Mobile device

• Apple iPOD - Industry changing product– 2005 Q4 Apples revenue US$5.7bn target US$4.7bn – 330% year on year growth in sales– Bringing new meaning to an Apple a day…

• sold >15M in last 90 days• 166,000 a day• 6 a second

– PODcasts

2005 Killer Mobile device

• Sony PSP

– 20 Million in 2006– Sony announced that it would sell $250m in games

and film content titles on PSP UMD format

Q4 2005 killer consumer products

14%

15%

23%

37%

57%

104%

127%

180%

198%

214%

223%

335%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%

PDAs

Mobile Phones

Digital Still cameras

Notebooks

Switches

LCD Monitors

Access points

Plasma TVs

Routers

Ext. Hard Disk Drive

LCD TVs

MP3 (HD+Flash)

More to come…prices will fall

• In 2005, in a rural Cambodian village where homes lack electricity, the night-time darkness is pierced by the glow from $100 windup laptops that children bring home from school.

Sub R1000.00 laptop in SA 2006?

• 2006 Feb; Quanta Computer Taipei, has announced it intends to build the $100 laptop computer for children in developing nations. It hopes to turn out 5 to 15 million $100 laptop computers each year, a business it believes is worth $20 million for the next five years.

Things have changedWho looks at key pad anymore?

• In 2005, a new computer keyboard offers blank keys. "If you look at a piano, it doesn't have notes on the keys,”

TrendsFor consumers it’s all

about;• Entertainment

– Digital Home Platforms– High res TV

• Mobility– Wi Max…PLC– Triple Play devices

• Content– WEB 2.0– GOOGLE

Content

• In 2005, more than 4m people were using Internet 2 at 10 gigabits per second, roughly 20,000x faster than typical home broadband connection.

• In 2005, Universal and Twentieth Century Fox agreed to pay Microsoft $5 million plus a percentage of movie ticket sales for rights to Halo-- The Movie.

…information is instant everywhere• In 2006; In response to the Danish Muslim

cartoons 1700 websites were hacked in 1 week in protest.

• “Everything I need to know I learn through googling”– Bad Astronomy and Universe Today Forum– www.bautforum.com - ToSeek - Moderator

… Disney bought Pixar

Hollywood will be the connector

between CE and computer

Google• In 2005, the president of the French National

Library, (13 million books), protested when Google announced a plan to scan 15 million English-language books.

• “This represents a greater peril than American movies, television or popular music.“

Google overtook Microsoft as most hated

Galactic Domination!

What is the future for South Africa?

9.4%

9.2%

8.4%

8.0%

7.7%

7.0%

6.2%

5.2%

4.9%

3.6%

3.5%

2.9%

1.8%

1.7%

1.0%

China

Argentina

Pakistan

India

Singapore

Turkey

KSA

Egypt

South Africa

USA

Spain

Japan

France

UK

Brazil

Population dynamics will shape trends

SA a typical emerging economy• 19.8 m employable adults (44% of total)

– 12.3 m adults employed (62% of adults)– 7.5 m adults unemployed (38% of adults)

• Of the 700k new employees in 2005 most were under 30

• Declining average consumer age will shape decisions differently

SA employee vs a developed economy employee

3rd Generation Mobile Phone User

•Triple Play Device:

– Voice

– Text

– Video

…everyone is doing mobile• from: Farai Chinomwe [farai_ec@hotmail.com]• Sent: Monday, February 13, 2006 11:35 AM• To: Anthony Fitzhenry• Subject: helo

• how r u ?well i hope ,i had been battling to get hold of u since the day i met you at the restaurant was at home last week end every thing is fine ,coz we are used to it and there is no any option ,its sore how life is at home ,well im asking you a big favour ,i want to help people at home with some other basic needs ,but i has been veri difficult for me since i had not been working and im still on the job hunt ,well if there is some thing u can do for me to get a job pliz do so ,music is veri veri slow and i had been just depening from other in the past ,which is veri tough ,if i can get a job i hope everi thing will be a little easier, education i have a certificate of in o levels well passed ,and i had work as a tour guider at the geat zimbabwe ruins after my o levels and here in south africa i work for blues room nite club in village walk ,primetime video,moyo .afrodiac restuarant.

• looking forward to hear from you

• have a nice day

The future SA

• Trends will be set by consumer electronics through industry changing products

• Entertainment…video and communications will be the connector between consumer device and IT

• Consumer devices will be;– Mobile triple play devices– Connectivity prioritization

• Quality

• Price

– Satellite, Cellular, Wireless, Blue tooth, Power Line Communications

Technology Outlook SAPositive• Consumers embracing tech in 2006• Consumer demand boost in 2006• Costs are falling in 2006

Negative• Complexity remains too high

– Apple, Sony, DSTV PVR model must be followed– Consumers will need high touch

• Skills still light• Light on deployment capacity

Outlook for SA• The historic trend of developed markets leading

will be overturned…emerging markets will lead trends

• At the cutting edge of technology, trends in South Africa are as fast as anywhere

• We will do it…our people are smart.