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Teale Walheim Development Consultant
December 6, 2013
Dear President Obiang and Minister of Labor, It is my honor to submit to you the requested policy report of which dissects Equatorial Guinea’s unemployment problem and provides a policy recommendation that works to alleviate the issue. Tactical analysis was used to root out the underlining issues that have caused high unemployment rates in Equatorial Guinea. It has become clear that the underinvestment and underdevelopment of the education and agricultural sectors in addition to a poor business environment have arrested Equatorial Guineans ability to secure long-term employment. It is in the best interest of the government to immediately initiate an aggressive policy agenda to repair the employment situation. Accordingly, I have included in the report a recommendation for a strategic policy plan that addresses Equatorial Guinea’s short-term and long-term unemployment problem. After careful consideration of a number of policy options, I propose a multilayered approach that includes an increase in investment for the education and agriculture sectors. It is vital that education becomes a priority due to its ability to provide the skills needed in the labor market. Agriculture must again become an economic pillar for Equatorial Guinea as it can provide jobs for rural communities as well as diversify the economy thus decreasing the reliance on oil. Additionally, it is crucial that the business environment be improved to foster entrepreneurs and encourage foreign investment. In conclusion I have provided an implementation plan for which I recommend a special task force be created under your guidance in order to execute the proposed agenda. Equatorial Guinea is a great nation on the brink of unlimited prosperity. It is of the greatest honor that I have the ability to work with you on this important path towards development. Please do not hesitate to contact me regarding any questions or concerns you may have.
Respectfully Yours,
Teale Walheim Development Consultant
The Honorable President Obiang & The Minister of Labor and Social Development
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From: Teale Walheim To: Equatorial Guinea’s Ministry of Labor and Social Security Date: October 11, 2013 Re: Unemployment Management and Social Development in Equatorial Guinea _______________________________________________________________________ Executive Summary
Equatorial Guinea has become one of the richest countries in Africa, yet the majority of
its population still lives in dire poverty, surviving on less than $2 a day (AEO, 2008, pg 298).
The Equatoguinean government has invested the majority of its national funds to establish the oil
industry and consequently its funding for agricultural production (their primary source of income
before the discovery of oil and a large job provider) has greatly decreased (CIA, 2013). As a
result, unemployment has become an increasingly critical problem exacerbated by the fact that
approximately 60% of the country’s population is under the age of 25 years old (AEO, 2012).
The government’s failure to provide its citizens with sufficient education and training facilities in
combination with a thin market for employment opportunities and underinvestment in agriculture
have restricted Equatoguinean’s ability to escape the poverty trap that cripples much of the
country. It is critical that President Obiang and the Ministry of Labor and Social Security act
now to implement policies that support youth development in education and vocational training
as well as policies that enable the market to diversify and foster sectors other than oil.
This policy memo examines the historical, political, economic and social context of the
unemployment problem in Equatorial Guinea. It will explore the incentives of key stakeholders
and diagnosis the type of failures that have lead to the current situation as well as offer a clear
problem definition. After a detailed comparative analysis of several policy solutions, it has been
recommended that President Obiang and the Minister of Labor implement a three-layered policy
agenda that reinvests in primary education as well as technical and vocational training and
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education programs, in additional to revitalizing the agriculture sector and improve the overall
business environment. The combination of these three policy initiatives will combat short term
and long-term unemployment and consequently secure economic stability and advance social
development within Equatorial Guinea.
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Historical Context
Equatorial Guinea is a small West African country located on the coastline between
Cameroon and Gabon with a population of roughly 735,000 people (CIA, 2013) (See Appendix
I). It gained independence from Spain in 1968 and since has had two presidents who have ruled
over the country with authoritative power. The current president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema, has
been reelected four times though the legitimacy of the democratic elections has been widely
questioned (CIA, 2013). In 1996, Equatorial Guinea discovered large oil reserves off their
coastline and quickly became one of the largest oil exporters in Africa (CIA, 2013). Oil revenue
has greatly increased the country’s GDP over the last decade and now Equatorial Guinea is one
of the richest countries on the continent.
Despite the impressive GDP, Equatorial Guinea’s economic growth has not translated
into improved social infrastructure. Close to 77% of the population still lives in extreme poverty
surviving on less that $2 a day. (CGDev, 2011, pg 1). Education and health services remain
severely inadequate and roughly 57% of the population lives without better access to water
sources (CGDev, 2011). Unemployment is endemic and a primary factor contributing to the
poverty in Equatorial Guinea. A national survey of unemployment reported that 65.5% of the
households in Malabo, 57% in Bata and 65% in other regions “no-one was working” (AEO,
2012, pg 11). “The quality of life for most citizens of Equatorial Guinea has stagnated, and, by
many measures, has actually declined in recent years” (Open Society, 2010). Income disparities
and inequality have become increasingly apparent in contrast to the lifestyle of the political elite
and those working in the oil industry.
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Government & Political Context
The dichotomy between the rich elite who prosper from the oil industry and the greater
population living in extreme poverty continues to widen calling into question the motives of the
government. GEPetrol, the state owned oil company, is directly linked to President Obiang and
his family who are at the center of allegations of large scale corruption and excessive personal
spending (CGDev, 2011). “Gross misappropriation of the nation’s resources has continued for
well over two decades, enriching members of the Nguema/Mongomo group and making
Equatorial Guinea an almost perfect kleptocracy” (Open Society, 2010). Exact estimates of
internal oil revenue are kept secret from the public and foreign investors regularly complain of
the extremely high informal costs of doing business within the country (CGDev, 2011).
In 2007 Equatorial Guinea applied for candidacy in the Extractive Industries
Transparency Initiative (EITI) but was later rejected due to low levels of social participation and
the fact that “macroeconomic and socio-demographic data are also deficient in quality, timing
and coverage, and even the most basic data are very hard for the public to access” (IMF, 2013).
President Obiang and his close circle of political leaders have profited greatly from the oil
industry and have a vested interest to keep it a government priority. Some believe “the non-
investment in social services is, in a way, a policy intended to avoid the emergence of economic
or political rivals” (Campos-Serrano, 2013, para 42).
However, throughout Obiang’s presidency, he has been determined to “secure external
validations and legitimacy for (his) regime” and as he approaches the end of his life (he is 71
years old) his desire to secure a positive political legacy could be a great opportunity to persuade
him to make drastic changes to improve the lives of his citizens (GCDev, 2011).
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Economic Context
Equatorial Guinea’s economy is currently heavily dependent on oil and natural gas
exports, which combined account for close to 95% of their GDP (EIA) (See Appendix III).
However before the discovery of oil their economy relied primarily on the production and
exportation of cocoa, coffee and timber (CIA). Since the Equatoguinean government has
invested the majority of its funds to strengthen the oil industry, the agricultural industry has
suffered. Today agricultural exports account for less that 2% of the total GDP. Cocoa production,
for example, has fallen from 3000 tonnes exported in 2007 to only 859 tonnes in 2011 (AEO,
2012, pg 5) (See Appendix III). Barriers affecting the production of coffee and cocoa are “the
lack of material and financial support to farmers and the condition of the road infrastructure”
(AEO, 2008, pg 288). Even though the majority of the population survives on subsistence
farming, the government’s lack of investment in large-scale agriculture production has greatly
diminished the opportunity to transform the sector into a primary job creator and economic
powerhouse (UN, 2013).
Regrettably the oil industry, which accounts for only 4% of the labor force, does not
sufficiently supply enough jobs to substitute the labor markets dependency on agriculture (AEO,
2012). Additionally, the oil industry jobs generally require a high level of skill sets that are not
prevalent among Equatoguineans. The reliance on oil revenue and the lack of economic diversity
are major issues Equatorial Guinea faces, especially considering the large portions of the young
people attempting to enter the workforce.
Extremely inefficient and unnecessary regulations are being imposed on the private
sector obstructing the diversification and the improvement of the domestic economic
environment. In 2012 the World Bank ranked Equatorial Guinea 155th out of 183 countries in
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their Doing Business Report (AEO, 2012, pg 9). Long “procedures for starting a business and
waiting times, at 21 days and 137 days respectively” does not encourage entrepreneurship nor
does the “excessive bureaucracy,…corruption and arbitrary behavior” of public institutions
(AEO, 2012, pg 9). The IMF insists, “promoting greater access to credit for small- and medium-
sized enterprises should also be a priority” (IMF, 2013). Needless obstacles must be cleared
away to create an accessible and efficient path for a successful private sector to emerge.
Social Context
Similar to many other African countries, Equatorial Guinea is experiencing a youth
bulge. Over 60% of the population is under the age of 25 years and “the economy is unable to
generate enough jobs to deal with this growth in the active population” (AEO, 2012, pg 13).
Conversely, with the increases in foreign investment and private sector businesses, some argue
unemployment is due to an “under-qualified workforce (rather) than to insufficient vacancies”
(AEO, 2008, pg 296). It is reasonable to assume that the greater problem is a combination of the
two. The low availability of job opportunities as well as a lack of marketable skills is
contributing to high unemployment rates. Another contributing factor is the increased
competition for jobs from “thousands of immigrants from near and far” flocking to Equatorial
Guinea after the discovery of oil (Campos-Serrona, 2013, para 1). The youth bulge exacerbates
all of these problems as more and more people enter their prime working years without the skills
and opportunities to succeed (See Appendix II).
The education and vocational training facilities currently in place provide too few
locations to sufficiently supply the workforce with the desired number of workers. Schools are ill
equipped and teachers are poorly trained to adequately prepare students for the current work
force (AEO, 2008). Corruption is also intertwined in the educational systems as “teachers with
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political connections but no experience or accreditation were hired, even though they seldom
appeared at the classes they purportedly taught” (Open Society, 2010). Additionally, higher
education is free to citizens but is only available in Malabo and Bata thus alienating much of the
rural population (AEO, 2012).
Stakeholders Analysis
The key stakeholders in this situation are President Obiang and Minister of Labor.
Currently there is “no demonstrable differences in interest between the executive and the
legislative” power indicating that all final decisions concerning the nation come directly from the
President (GCDev, 2011, pg 7). Thus if a policy is recommended by the Minister of Labor, the
President will have to give his stamp of approval creating a two tiered key stakeholder (see
Appendix V).
The President it also a primary stakeholder considering he has the executive power to
affect the policy decision. He has a strong personal interest in seeing his country prosper thus
bolstering his international reputation however he also has a large financial stake in policy
reform concerning the oil industry. The unemployed population is a primary stakeholder as their
livelihood and future security is at stake if employment opportunities do not improve or continue
to deteriorate. The Ministry of Labor is a primary stakeholder as his budget and resource will be
at stake.
Secondary stakeholders include the Ministers of Education, Mining and Energy, and
Agriculture as they all have considerable interest in any policy reform as it may greatly affect
their budgets and resources. Additionally they have the ability to influence the President’s
decision. Farmers and teachers are also secondary stakeholders who have their job security and
governmental support at stake however they have very little influence and resources available.
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International development agencies like USAID and the African Union Bank have a
vested interest in the policy decision though they have little power besides creating awareness of
the unemployment or poverty situation in the country therefore they are considered external
stakeholders. Current partners in the oil industry are considered external stakeholders as they
potentially could use their power to sway the final policy decision one way or another but
because they would only be marginally affected, they have little incentive to get involved. One
official from Marathon Oil told the Washington Post that, “We think we have a positive affect on
the conditions that exist in Equatorial Guinea” (Blum, 2004). Foreign investors are also external
stakeholders who have little power to affect a decision but still have an interest in the final
outcome as they could profit from a stable economy and a market of higher skilled local workers.
Current Policy
Currently there is not a specific policy addressing the unemployment problem in
Equatorial Guinea (AEO, 2012). They have initiated an economic and social development plan
(PNDES) “which aims to diversify the economy envisages measures to support youth
employment “(AEO, 2012, pg 2). Unfortunately poor management and lack of accountability has
lead to little progress in this initiative (AEO, 2012). The government also formed the National
Development Plan 2020 in which it supports an agenda to diversify the economy in response to
anticipated decreases in oil revenue. However, “it remains a wish-list, with no firm commitments
– a reflection of both capacity constraints, a lack of political will and enforceable oversight”
(GCdev, 2011, pg 8). A specific policy framework is needed to isolate both the governmental
and market failures to improve the overall employment environment.
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Government Failures
Equatorial Guinea’s high unemployment rate is directly linked to a variety of government
failures. The Economist Intelligence Unit named Equatorial Guinea one of the least democratic
countries in the world ranking it 160th out of 167 countries in its 2012 democracy index (EIU,
2012). The public lacks the ability to instruct the government on its needs and the Equatoguinean
government seems disinterested in listening to its constituents thus attributing to an uneven
distribution of power in the hands of a few. The IMF states that the Equatorial Guinea’s “fiscal
administration is dominated by the executive branch of government, with inherent dangers of
overcentralized and inadequate checks and balances” (as cited in CGdev, 2011, pg 7).
Government officials are not under pressure to get reelected, as their seats are secure as long as
they stay in the President’s good graces. Additionally the Equatorial Guinean government does
not publically disclose any information regarding the country’s oil revenue or a concrete annual
fiscal budget representing a debilitating example of information asymmetry (CGdev, 2011).
Failure to disclose the financial situation of the country encourages corruption from the people
who have access to the information and further alienates those who do not.
Large oil revenues in combination with the lack of transparency and accountability within
the government have already led to large-scale corruption and mismanagement of funds.
Therefore the oil industry and its informal benefits have led to government shortsightedness as it
has poured the majority of its funds into oil production for quick increases in revenue while
ignoring the needs of the social development that is essential for the long term prosperity (AEO,
2012). It also illuminates the government’s unwillingness to allocate funds to industries like
agriculture or education that provide little incentives but have the ability to create jobs for rural
communities.
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Within the bureaucratic sector “monitoring mechanisms are inadequate and there is a lack
of expertise in the area” attributing to the major managerial inefficiencies in nearly every public
institution (AEO, 2012, pg 9). Lack of capacity and competition within government institutions
has lead to long delays on business permits and stagnation in the private sector.
Market Failures
One market failure that has greatly affected Equatorial Guinea’s employment rate is the
negative externality of the rise in the oil industry. After the discovery of oil, the Equatoguinean
government switched its economic focus from agriculture, which supplied the majority of the
population with jobs, to oil production that had “limited use of a local workforce and other local
resources” (Campos-Serrano, 2013, para 6). The government has been slow to respond to this
externality and as a result inequality between the oil industry beneficiaries and the rest of the
population has been amplified.
Young citizens are having a particularly difficult time accessing information about jobs in
the market without a national employment agency to provide updates on possible opportunities
(AEO, 2012). Unfortunately, “as a result those responsible for human resources in private and
public sectors sometimes seek to make a profit by offering jobs to the highest bidder” (AEO,
2012, pg 13). Inadequate access to advantageous information about employment prospects is a
clear example of information asymmetry.
Equatorial Guinea’s thin market economy is the primary market failure contributing their
unemployment rate. As the country’s GDP becomes increasingly dependent on oil, other
industries have suffered. The lack of diversity in the economy has greatly reduced the number of
job opportunities available to the public.
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Expected Consequences if Problem is Not Addressed
African Development Bank, OECD Development center, the IMF and the United Nations
Development Programme all agree that high unemployment rates will greatly damage the future
of Equatorial Guinea. Young citizens who are unable to enter the workforce and collect steady
incomes will continue to contribute to the poverty cycle currently in rotation. Instead of
contributing to their families and to the local economy, they will become an additional burden on
both. Women are disproportionately affected by unemployment and if nothing is done to
improve their employment possibilities, gender equality will further deteriorate. Furthermore,
unemployment will intensify the disparity between the majority of the population and the rich
elite creating social instability.
If preparations are not made to integrate the youth bulge into the workforce, not only will
there be civil unrest but the economy will lack the essential labor market to help it diversify.
Without a well-educated, aptly trained populace Equatorial Guinea will not be able to support a
private sector to sustain a growing economy. As a result foreign investment will decrease and
Equatorial Guinea’s international reputation will suffer. It is crucial that the unemployment
problem in Equatorial Guinea be dealt with immediately as the World Bank has estimated that
each year approximately 25,000 to 49,000 additional young people will enter the workforce
without the opportunities or the skills to secure a job (AEO, 2012). To increase social welfare
and the overall efficiency of the public sector, the Equatoguinean government must intervene to
ensure that their young citizens are adequately supported and prepared to enter the work force.
Only then will they be able to contribute to society, elevating not only themselves but also the
prosperity of their country (See Appendix X).
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Problem Definition
The Equatoguinean government’s financial preference and economic reliance on the oil
industry has arrested the development of alternative public sectors and ignored the need to
revitalize their educational system to adequately supply its citizens with the skills needed to
support a domestic economy. In the face of an increasingly young population, growing income
disparities and international pressure to address the extreme poverty in a country with such a
high GDP, President Obiang and the Ministry of Labor must intervene to ensure its citizens’
basic human rights are maintained and secure long-term economic prosperity for the entire
country.
Policy Response
The unemployment problem in Equatorial Guinea will have grave short run and long run
consequences. It requires a collective policy agenda that is supported and implemented by the
government to achieve the outlined goals and objectives. Furthermore, to ensure that the best
policy option is chosen, every possible alternative must be examined. Each policy option will be
weighed by an evaluation criterion that focuses on effectiveness, equity, social feasibility,
political feasibility, and cost effectiveness.
Goals and Objectives
Equatorial Guinea must establish a comprehensive development plan that aligns priorities
of both President Obiang and the Minister of Labor in addition to the unemployed citizens and
secondary stakeholders. It must works to combat unemployment through improved education,
healthcare, rural infrastructure and business environment. To achieve this goal the following
objectives will need to be addressed:
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Objective #1: Without political support, no policy will succeed. Therefore, it is of the
upmost importance that the Equatoguinean government, more specifically President
Obiang champions the policy plan. He has the centralized power and financial ability to
push an agenda to the forefront and implement it efficiently.
Objective #2: Increased development of Equatorial Guinea’s rural infrastructure,
education and water and sanitation system is needed to ensure that the basic human needs
of its citizens are met.
Objective #3: Revitalization of alternative sectors that employ more people and provide
economic security for the nation in addition to improved business environment.
Objective #4: Access to information and increased transparency must be an overarching
objective to establish trust between the government and its citizens and confidence in the
domestic market.
Monitoring and Evaluation
To ensure that the recommended policy agenda is implemented effectively and succeeds
in achieving the proposed objective, a clear monitoring and evaluation process must be used. The
Equatoguinean government will have the majority of responsibility to monitor and evaluate the
proposed policies but will also be assisted by international development agencies and watchdog
organizations such as the IMF and Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Under
Appendix VII, distinct indicators and data measurements are provided for each corresponding
objective and will be used to evaluate the selected policy plan.
Policy Alternatives
The policy alternatives listed below will be presented to President Obiang and the
Minister of Labor and Social Development as potential solutions to satisfy the objectives above.
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Each alternative policy has been researched, utilized in other African countries and evaluated by
various international development experts.
Alternative #1: Status quo
The first alternative is to continue with the government’s current agenda. Equatorial
Guinea has seen recent improvements to infrastructure, healthcare and economic growth. New
deep-water ports, extensive road construction projects, and airports are revitalizing the
construction industry and paving a path to development (Foreign Policy, 2013). With 200
different companies managing over 1,500 new infrastructure projects within the country, the
Minister of Public Works and Infrastructure believes that these endeavors “will contribute to the
creation of jobs and pave the way for the functioning of many other sectors” (Foreign Policy,
2013, pg 5). Additionally, Equatorial Guinea’s national economic and social development plan
(PNDES) is an ambition document that strives to diversify the economy, improve the business
environment and alleviate poverty (AEO, 2012).
Though the PNDES is well intentioned, many of its goals and objectives have yet to be
achieved, its social development targets in particular. The African Development Bank reported
that “there is limited quantitative information regarding the implementation of the PNDES and
its impact assessment is constrained by a lack of reliable socio-economic data” (ADBG, 2012, pg
8). Additionally the African Development Bank argues that most of the infrastructure
improvements that have been made are focused on the energy and transportation industry in the
urban areas without any consideration given to the long-term development impact (ADBG,
2012). Much of the infrastructure has not aided the poorest communities and only supplied
temporary work, which cannot promote sustainable economic growth (ADBG, 2012).
Furthermore there has been no policy agenda to specifically promote youth employment. Though
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the PNDES aligns with many of the objectives listed above, the implementation of the necessary
policies has been arrested by the lack of institutional capacity and disregard of essential social
development goals.
Alternative #2: Revitalization of the Education Sector
A comprehensive education policy is geared to improve the future of Equatorial Guinea
both socially and economically. The proposed policy has three essentials layers that combat the
three areas in need of improvement. The first is increased spending on primary education as well
as providing incentives to increase enrollment and retention. The second is to increase the quality
of teaching, which is essential for the overall improvement of education in the country. The third
is to expand the technical and vocational education and training division for young adults and
align its focus to the needs of the labor market. A combination of these three objectives will
increase capacity at all ages thus providing the citizens of Equatorial Guinea with the employable
skills they need to improve their lives.
Though Equatorial Guinea has recently made great strides to provide universal primary
education to its citizens, quality standards remain low as well as completion rates, with only 50%
of students finishing primary school in 2006 (ADBG, 2012, pg 6). Even more concerning is the
fact that the government has decreased its spending on education in the last few years attributing
less than 1% of its total GDP to the sector (IMF Country Report, 2013, pg 8). The IMF
recommends that the Equatoguinean government’s “priorities in capital spending should also
switch from infrastructure toward education” as well as establish a framework to evaluate
teachers’ performance (IMF Country Report, 2013, pg 20). This policy would include a
commitment to increase funding to public schools to 5% of their GDP because it has been proven
that an “increase in public spending on education increases primary education enrolment in
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Africa by 21 to 28 per cent while increasing secondary education enrolment by 33 to 42 per
cent” (UNDS, 2012, pg 35). Additionally, in order to increase enrollment as well as retention, it
is recommended that the government provide a free meal during the school hours. This will not
only increase attendance but will also provide the children a nutritious meal that will enhance
their learning ability.
Teacher capacity is a central problem facing the Equatoguinean education sector;
therefore the government must establish a new criterion for evaluating the current teachers.
Additionally the government can regenerate their partnership with USAID to expand their
current teacher training programs as well as call on other international development agencies or
NGOS for technical assistance to dramatically increase the quality of teaching within Equatorial
Guinea. The government can also capitalize on the increased immigration into their country by
giving specific wage incentives for foreign teachers to work within their schools as a way to
boost capacity.
In order to increase the technical capacity of young adults entering an advanced labor
market, Equatorial Guinea must develop their technical and vocational education and training
(TVET) in the country. The government will be responsible for funding the schools and should
provide incentives for the private sector to take part in strengthening the program. Before
expanding the TVET division, the Minister of Labor must survey the private sector in order to
assess their demands. Given that “the ultimate objective of TVET is employability and
employment promotion, it is necessary to link training to the needs of the labor market” (African
Union TVET, 2007, pg 47). The International Labor Office has useful experience revitalizing
TVET in many countries around the world and it is recommended that the Equatoguinean
Minister of Education approach them for assistance in design and implementation of the program
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(African Union TVET, 2007). Additionally, it will be essential that the Minister of Education
call on the international community for help in providing technical assistance and training at the
start of the program.
Compared to the status quo alternative, revitalizing the education sector requires a
substantial increase in spending over a long period of time as well as the need for foreign
technical support. However, it has been proven that investment in education is essential to
combat unemployment and promote social and economic progress. Furthermore, President
Obiang has already publically committed to advancing the education system by building new
schools and USAID is currently training teachers. An aggressive policy agenda that compliments
these developments will not have many opponents and is financially viable given the
advancements of the energy industry.
Alternative #3: Improved Business Environment
Equatorial Guinea’s poor business environment is a significant barrier to employment
and developmental progress (see Appendix IV). To improve the business environment, policies
must be executed to create confidence, trust and efficiency within the market. First, extensive
deregulatory policies must be implemented in order to improve the business environment
allowing entrepreneurs and foreign investors to work effectively and proficiently within
Equatorial Guinea. The African Development Bank makes the claim that “African countries that
are rich in natural resources and have a business friendly environment can diversify FDI in other
sectors to reduce dependence on oil and mineral exports” (Improving Business, 2011, para 6).
Therefore, Equatorial Guinea must reduce the time it takes to register a business as well as
increase efficiency to register property rights. Enabling citizens to receive and establish credit is
also extremely important to encourage and support local entrepreneurs. In an effort to assist
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unemployed citizens in finding a job it is also recommended that the Minister of Labor create a
national employment agency.
Due to the low capacity in Equatoguinean public institutions it is recommended that the
government enlist the help of the African Development Bank which has given technical support
to Botswana, Mozambique and Sierra Leone to specifically “improve both the legal and
regulatory frameworks in order to encourage private investment, accelerate business
development and increase economic growth” (Business Enabling, 2013). Deregulating the
business environment will encourage the creation of more small and medium enterprises, which
in turn will increase the supply of new jobs.
The second part of the improved business environment policy plan would be to increase
transparency and access to information. In an effort to establish trust between the government, its
citizens and the international community, the Equatoguinean government must institute a
constitutional law that allows access to information. By increasing transparency within the
government, there will be less opportunity for rent seeking and it will allow for useful
information to be made available for foreign investors as well as local entrepreneurs.
Additionally with the significant improvements in information and communication technologies,
efforts should be made by the Equatoguinean government to incorporate e-governance in public
administration (Oye, 2013). “The increased automation of processes reduces the need for person-
to-person contact in delivery of Government services to the people, and the less contact there is,
the less opportunity there is for rent-seeking behavior” (Oye, 2013, pg 8).
The improved business environment policy alternative will increase equity by promoting
a more well rounded private sector and it will be extremely cost effective with of the help of the
African Development Bank. Furthermore, most of the policies can be implemented quickly if
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President Obiang approves the initiative and could be seen as a quick win for the government.
However, the secretive culture of the government will prove to be major barrier to the
transparency proposal.
Alternative #4: Investment in Agriculture
With the majority of Equatorial Guinea’s population still reliant on subsistence farming,
it would be advantageous to implement policies that rejuvenate the agricultural sector. The
success stories of the Green Revolution in Asia prove that advances in agriculture not only
promotes economic stability but increases employment opportunities, food security and reduces
poverty (Salami, Kamara & Brixiova, 2010). The agriculture policy aims to dramatically
increase investment in agricultural technology and machinery with subsidies for improved seeds
and fertilizers. Rural roads must be built or repaved to improve the transportation of goods and
taxes should be removed to increase farmers’ profit of exported produce (Salami, Kamara &
Brixiova, 2010). Additionally, the government must put forth a positive campaign to improve the
image of agriculture as it is considered a lesser profession compared to the energy industry
(Salami, Kamara & Brixiova, 2010).
This policy alternative is inexpensive compared to the education policy but will be less
politically feasible because of Presidents Obiang’s preferential investment in the energy industry.
However, a boost in agricultural investment can bring about a dramatic increase in employment
as well as improvements in quality of life. Additionally, with a rise in agricultural production,
Equatorial Guinea would be less reliant on expensive imports and less vulnerable to external
shocks such as a decline in oil prices.
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Alternative #5: Combination of Alternatives 2, 3, and 4
The final policy alternative is to combine the education, improved business environment
and agriculture policies together as a multilayered agenda to combat unemployment and promote
social development within Equatorial Guinea. The education policy described earlier would be a
long-term initiative that invests in primary schools and TVET programs to increase human
capacity. Then by deregulating the business environment and promoting transparency, a more
educated population would be able to enter a liberalized market that offers many new job
opportunities. The agriculture policy would coincide with these two agendas and supply jobs in
rural communities, strengthening the economy and pulling Equatorial Guinean’s out of poverty.
President Obiang has the unique opportunity to use the countries immense natural wealth to
develop his country in a relatively short period of time. This multilayered policy agenda would
dramatically increase equity, is socially and fiscally feasible and would effectively achieve the
objectives. Political feasibility is weak but the unique circumstances of President Obiang’s age
and desire to establish a positive political legacy may provide the opportunity needed for this
ambitious agenda to succeed.
Evaluation Criteria
A variety of policy evaluation tools were used to select the best policy alternative that
addresses the goals and objectives. In Appendix VIII, every policy alternative is assessed in the
Criteria Alternative Matrix using the following principals each given a specific weight of
importance ranging from 5 (the highest) to 1 (the lowest):
Ø Effectiveness (5) – The ability of the policy to successfully achieve the goals and
objectives, which is essential for the development of the country, thus it is given a
weight of 5.
22
Ø Equity (5) – The capacity of the policy to equally distribute benefits to the
majority of the population. With extreme inequality dividing Equatorial Guinea it
is vital that the policy address the problems of as many citizens as possible
therefore Equity is also given the weight of 5.
Ø Socially Acceptable (2) – The willingness of society to consent to the new policy.
Since all of the policy alternatives address the concerns of the majority of society
and work to improve their lives, socially acceptable was given a weight of 2.
Ø Political Feasibility (5) – The willingness of government officials to accept,
support and implement the policy. This is of the utmost importance given that the
final decision to advance the policy agenda lies in the government’s hands.
Therefore this was given a weight of 5.
Ø Cost Effectiveness (3) – The comparison of relative cost of a policy to the
expected effectiveness of the policy to achieve the objectives. All the proposed
policies are essential steps toward development and must be implemented at some
point. The effectiveness has been proven in various countries to be worth the cost
therefore this is given the weight of 3.
Ø Administrative Feasibility (3) – The ability of public institutions to adjust and
implement a new policy. Institutional capacity has been a hindrance for change
within Equatorial Guinea and most policies will need the assistance of foreign
development agencies, therefore this was given a weight of 3.
A supplementary Objectives Matrix is provided in Appendix IX to compare and contrast
each policy alternatives’ ability to achieve the objectives. Three classifications are given to
23
distinguish the policies ability to either fully meet the objective, partially meet the objective or
unable to meet the objective.
Policy Recommendation
After extensive comparative analysis it is clear that policy alternative #5, the combination
of policies 2, 3, and 4, is the best policy option to address Equatorial Guinea’s unemployment
problem. As it has been clearly outlined earlier, the issue of unemployment is a combination of
various development obstacles that must be addressed before progress can be made. Policy #5
uses a multifaceted approach to tackle the barricades that are blocking citizens from gainful
employment.
Education must be a keystone investment that secures short-term and long-term capacity
building throughout the country. Improving the business environment will liberalize the market
for entrepreneurs and foreign investment resulting in an increase in employment capacity.
Fortifying the agriculture sector provides thousands of jobs for rural communities and diversifies
the Equatoguinean economy providing economic security. It is essential to combine all three
because providing education without job opportunities creates unemployment; job opportunities
without the required education amounts to unemployment and a uniform business environment
without job prospects leads to unemployment and a vulnerable economy. “Social policy should
be conceived as a key instrument that works in tandem with economic policy to ensure equitable
and socially sustainable development” (UNDS, 2012). To continue with the status quo would
result in a stagnation of social development, which will ultimately exacerbate unemployment and
foster resentment among the majority of Equatorial Guineans.
With the highest score of 95 in the Criteria Alternative Matrix, policy #5 is able to
incorporate all six principal respectively while the statue quo alternative scored the least out of
24
all the alternatives. Policy #5 fully meets every objective in the Objectives Matrix except for
Objective #1, where it only meets the objective partially. In both tools, it is clear that political
feasibility and government support are the main challenges for this policy option. Substantial
negotiations and strategy discussions with international agencies such as the African
Development Bank, EITI and the IMF will need to be held in order to create a collective
understanding of the importance of this policy agenda and all its elements for the future of
Equatorial Guinea. This effort in multiple different directions may result in the scaling back of
some of the policy components, as a few will be less feasible than others, for example,
introducing an access to information law. Fortunately, due to Equatorial Guinea’s extraordinary
wealth amassing from the energy industry, they are one of the few African nations able to
implement this policy agenda without foreign aid. However, there will be a need for technical
assistance as capacity within public institutions is insufficient.
Risk Analysis
There are inherent risks around every policy agenda, and unfortunately this policy option
is not an exception. The greatest risk facing Equatorial Guinea’s ability to implement the policy
agenda is political turnover. President Obiang is approaching the end of his life and a political
turnover could have drastic effects on the implementation plan, which will take several years.
The success of this policy agenda relies on the government’s support and ability to follow
through with the plan. A possible negative externality of increased agricultural production is
environmental degradation. Many African nations are fighting the battle between profiting off
their land and protecting the environment; this may become an internal conflict for Equatorial
Guinea as well. Additionally, as the policy agenda begins to improve education, infrastructure
and employment opportunities within the country more of their less developed neighbors are
25
likely to immigrate to Equatorial Guinea creating more competition. Immigration laws will then
need to be addressed.
Implementation Plan
The recommended policy agenda is complex and multilayered; therefore the
implementation plan will be as well. In order to carry out each distinct policy, it is recommended
that a task force be established comprised of representatives from the Ministries of Education,
Labor, Agriculture, Economy and the Secretary General who will be the voice of President
Obiang. The Ministers of Education, Agriculture and Economy will be responsible for
implementing the policy assigned to their respective Ministry while the Minister of Labor and
the Secretary General will supervise and support the implementation of all the three agendas.
Additionally, the African Union Bank Group as well as the IMF and EITI will be consulting the
task force and providing technical assistance where it is needed. This group will create an action
plan and a timeline similar to the one presented in Appendix X.
To create excitement both internationally and domestically an awareness campaign
should set forth the goals the task force has committed to in an effort to motivate themselves as
well as the entire country. The task force will then outline the budget needed to implement each
policy with a detailed report supporting their financial requirements. President Obiang will give
all final approvals. The monitoring and evaluating of each policy will be performed every quarter
by the task force as well as the African Union Bank, the IMF and EITI. Please see Appendix X
for further implementation details.
Conclusion
Equatorial Guinea has become one of the wealthiest African nations on the continent due
to the discovery of oil reserves off their coastline. The country’s GDP has steadily increased as it
26
continues to collect royalties; however, the majority of the population has not seen the benefits of
this newfound affluence. Over half of the population lives on less than $2 a day with inadequate
education, a stagnant domestic economy and staggering rates of unemployment. The current
youth bulge further intensifies these issues; thus it is critical that the government intervene
immediately to correct the various government and market failures.
It is recommended that President Obiang and the Minister of Labor work in accordance
with all the ministries to adopt an aggressive policy agenda that seeks to improve the overall
development of the nation. First, education must become an overarching priority to improve the
lives of Equatoguineans and secure the advancement of society. Subsequently, agriculture must
again become a prosperous industry in order to diversify the economy, provide jobs for rural
communities and decrease the economy’s reliance on the energy sector. Finally, the government
needs to take the necessary steps to liberalize its markets and increase transparency in order to
encourage and support local entrepreneurs and foreign investors. Equatorial Guinea is in the
financial position to achieve these goals and catapult themselves into the league of developed
nations.
27
Appendix I
-‐Map of Equatorial Guinea’s Position in Africa
Source: http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/equatorial_guinea.htm -‐Map of Equatorial Guinea
Source: http://www.ephotopix.com/equatorial_guinea_province_map.html
28
Appendix II -‐ Equatorial Guinean Population Growth
Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/equatorial-‐guinea/population
-‐ Equatorial Guinea’s Population Distribution by Age
Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-‐world-‐factbook/geos/ek.html
29
Appendix III
-‐ Equatorial Guinea’s GDP Growth
Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/equatorial-‐guinea/gdp
-‐ Equatorial Guinea Coffee Production
Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=gq&commodity=green-‐coffee&graph=production
30
Appendix IV
-‐ Equatorial Guinea’s property rights freedom compared to South Africa and the United States:
Source: http://www.heritage.org/index/visualize?countries=equatorialguinea&type=8
-‐ Equatorial Guinea’s Doing Business Ranking compared to other African Countries:
Source: http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/giawb/doing%20business/documents/profiles/country/GNQ.pdf
31
Appendix V
-‐ Stakeholder’s Analysis
Primary Stakeholders: Stakeholder Interests Positions Resources
President Obiang (Key Stakeholder)
*Gain personal wealth and retain power. *Improve the international reputation of the country. *Increase oil industry revenue.
*His decision will largely depend on the amount of wealth the results will provide. *However, as he becomes older, he is becoming more conscious of what his legacy will be and he has a large desire to make Equatorial Guinea a rich and prosperous nation and a successful example of African development.
*Complete access to large amounts of wealth and incoming revenue from the oil industry. *Complete power on how the money and resources is distributed. *Power to implement large scale policy reforms
Ministry of Labor (Key Stakeholder)
*Decrease unemployment rates. *Diversify the job markets. *Increase education and vocational training for youth. *Increase budget *Create urgency with the President about unemployed youth. *Create unemployment agency.
*Convince the President of the urgency of the situation with youth bulge and unemployment. *Help the young population get access to proper education and training for jobs currently in the market. *Needs increased budget.
*Has the ear of the President and sufficient knowledge to create urgency. *Budget *Influence *Ability to implement policy
Unemployed Population
*Gain employment. *Increase income and get out of poverty. *Get the proper training needed to get a job.
*Desire to get out of the poverty trap with good education and job opportunities. *Believes government needs to intervene to help support the private sector and improve education.
*Does not have access to the President but can voice concerns to local politicians *Very little power and influence and money *However they are the majority, civil unrest, get international agencies to help.
32
Secondary Stakeholders:
Stakeholders Interests Position Resources
Ministry of Education
*Increase budget for schools and vocational training centers *Receive more international teachers to train new local teachers *Build more schools in rural areas and vocational facilities in urban centers.
*Convince the President to focus on education across the country for a more secure future. *Increase teacher capacity *Implement policy that increases capacity of youth for current job market
*Has the ear of the President and sufficient knowledge to create urgency. *Budget *Ability to implement policy.
Ministry of Mining, Industry and Energy
*Secure finances for continued growth in natural resource sector *Create more infrastructure (ports, refineries) in the sector *Discover more oil and other national resources *Keep foreign investors interested in the country
*Convince President to continue funding for Oil and other natural resource industry *Attract more international investors *More education and more jobs for the population is good but not at their expense
*Has the ear of the President and sufficient knowledge to create urgency. *Access to large amount of funds *Ability to implement policy *Lots of influence *Already creating some jobs.
Ministry of Agriculture
*Reinvest in agriculture *Increase agricultural production of coffee, cocao, timber and fisheries *Increase budget *Put subsistence farmers to work to take advantage of great agricultural potential.
*Convince President the he needs to reinvest in agriculture. *Implement policy to subsidize agriculture to incentivize farmers. *Attract foreign countries to trade with internationally.
*Has ear of the President and sufficient knowledge to create urgency. *Access to some funding *Ability to implement Policy *Farmer support
Employed Population
*Job security, *increase income *Want to see family properly educated and employed *Equality *Security
*Believe the government needs to increase. education and diversify market support younger generation.
*Very little power and very few resources.
33
Teachers
*Better Pay *More Training *Better Facilities *More support from the government
*Believe the government needs to prioritize education and support teachers.
*Very little power *Could mobilize but have very few resources and very little money.
Farmers
*Want government to increase funding for large-‐scale production *Increase subsidies *Access to foreign trade opportunities.
*Believe government needs to reinvest in agriculture to provide jobs and support international trade of agricultural products
*Very little power *Very few resources and are not well organized.
External Stakeholders:
Stakeholders Interests Positions Resources
International Development Agencies (USAID, UNDP, IMF,
ADBG)
*Improve health and educational sectors *Train local teaching staff *Increase Social Protection *Increase equality *Alleviate poverty *Ensure human rights are upheld
*Government should allocate more resources towards health and education. *A country as rich as Equatorial Guinea should not have its citizens living such extreme poverty.
*Power is limited, can only add pressure on the government. *International shame *Increase awareness of issues
Potential Foreign Investors
*Looks for opportunities in developing countries to partner/trade with *Cheap Labor
*If Equatorial Guinea can become more business friendly: opening borders, decreasing formalities, and decreasing corruption more foreign investors will come.
*Limited power to persuade government to act, can only give them incentives to reform business sectors.
Current Oil Partner (US, Japan)
*Continue partnership with the government *Want to decrease informal costs of doing business *Improve business reputation.
*If the Equatorial Guinean Government can improve its reputation by supporting its population & decreasing corruption, the current oil companies will also be improving their reputation for doing business with them.
*Have considerable power but not willing to use it because they don't want to hurt current partnership. *Has financial resources but not willing to use it for.
34
Appendix VI
-‐ Problem Tree
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35
Appendix VII -‐ Objective Monitoring and Evaluation of Policy Agenda
Objectives Indicators Data to measure M&E
#1 -‐ Equatoguinean government, more specifically President Obiang champions the policy plan
*Policy agenda is in motion and being implemented.
*Public announcement to citizens and the international community of their commitment to implement the policy plan.
#2 -‐ Increased development of Equatorial Guinea’s rural infrastructure, education and water and sanitation system is needed to ensure that the basic human needs of its citizens are met.
*Enrollment and retention numbers increase. *Number or roads built or repaved increases. *Number of clean water pumps and sanitation systems increase. *Increased number of TVET schools open in all areas of the country. *Decrease in people living in poverty.
*Data will be reported by the Minister of Education and Minister of Social Development. *Additionally international agencies will preform their own survey and report their data.
#3 -‐ Revitalization of alternative sectors that employ more people and provide economic security for the nation in addition to improved business environment.
*Increase number of small and medium size businesses. *Increase agriculture production *Increases in manufacturing and service jobs positions. *Increased foreign direct investment. *Decrease in unemployment rate.
*Increased ranking in the Doing Business index. *Government will collect surveys of the private sector to monitor new businesses. *Government will monitor data on decreases in importing food and increases in exporting agricultural products. *African Development Bank Group will help monitor and evaluate the business environment.
#4 -‐ Access to information and increased transparency must be an overarching objective to establish trust between the government and its citizens and confidence in the domestic market.
*Citizens are able to access government information. *Government makes progress in applying to EITI again. *Increased confidence in doing business within the country.
*Accepted into EITI. *Pass an access to information law. *Increased ranking in freedom and democracy indexes.
36
Appendix VIII
-‐ Alternative Criteria Matrix
Criteria Weight Alternatives
#1 -‐ Status
Quo #2 -‐
Education #3 -‐ Business Environment
#4 -‐ Agriculture
#5 -‐ Combination
(2,3,4) Effectiveness (5) 5 2 4 4 4 5 Equity (5) 5 2 5 5 4 5 Socially Acceptable (2) 2 3 5 5 4 5 Politically Feasible (5) 5 4 3 3 4 3 Cost Effective (3) 3 2 3 5 5 4 Administrative Feasibility (3) 3 4 2 3 3 3 Total 64 85 94 92 96
37
Appendix IX -‐ Objectives Matrix
Alternative Policies
Objectives #1 -‐ Status Quo
#2 -‐ Education
#3 -‐ Business Environment
#4 -‐ Agriculture
#5 -‐ Combination (2,3,4)
#1 -‐ Equatoguinean government, more specifically President Obiang champions the policy plan
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
#2 -‐ Increased development of Equatorial Guinea’s rural infrastructure, education and water and sanitation system is needed to ensure that the basic human needs of its citizens are met.
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
#3 -‐ Revitalization of alternative sectors that employ more people and provide economic security for the nation in addition to improved business environment.
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ #4 -‐ Access to information and increased transparency must be an overarching objective to establish trust between the government and its citizens and confidence in the domestic market.
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Fully meets
the objective ✔
Meets part of the
objective ✔
Does not meet
objective ✔
38
Appendix X -‐ Policy Implementation Plan
EDUCATION POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
Secure an increase of 5% for the educabon budget. (Begin next fiscal year and establish this budget as the norm)
Increase enrollment and retenbon by providing meals in primary and secondary schools. (Begin in 2015 and establish as customary)
Work with USAID and other internabonal agencies to increase teacher training and implement new evaluabon method. (Begin
immediately and create a nabonal standard)
Build three more TVET schools. Then work with Internabonal Labor Office to assess the labor market needs and provide the skills
young adults need to secure a job. (Assess job market immediately and begin building one TVET school every 5 years)
IMPROVED BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
Deregulate and liberalize the market, which entails decreasing the bme to register a business and increasing property rights freedom. (Begin
Immediately)
Work with the African Union Bank Group to implement accessible credit policy within the nabonal bank and create a nabonal employment
agency. (Begin Immediately)
Create a consbtubonal law allowing for access to informabon and reapply to EITI by adhering to their requirements. (Begin Immediately)
Incorporate e-‐governance systems to fight against rent seeking and increase efficiency within public insbtubons. (Begin implementabon
in 2020)
39
AGRICULTURE POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
Increase investment by 5% in the agriculture sector. (Begin in next fisical year)
Invest in improved agriculture machines and improved seed variebes. Addibonally provide subsidies to farmers for them to
buy the improved products. (Begin in next fiscal year and subsequently every year for a minimum of 15 years)
Build or repave rural roads to facilitate easy transportabon of agricultural products to new markets. (Begin next fiscal year and subsequently every year for a minimum of 10
years)
Inbate an internabonal campaign to promote Equatorial Guinean cocoa and coffee. Addibonally remove all taxes
that limit farmers' profits. (Begin in 2016)
40
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