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International Studies Association 50th Annual Convention New York, February 15-18, 2009

Exit Poll and Massive Fraud in the former Soviet bloc

Quantitative Analyses on Democratization

by Ikuro Fujiwara

University of Osaka

Lecturer if2116@columbia.edu

Abstract

Samuel P. Huntington maintains in The Third Wave that democratization has been prevailing since Carnation Revolution in Portugal in 1974. The

trend finally reached the former Soviet bloc, first bringing about Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia in 1989 and the collapse of Berlin Wall. After the

emerging civil liberty and democratic movement in the former Soviet bloc in the 1990s, people’s power finally turned over the rule of authoritative

governments in Georgia 2003 and Ukraine 2004. The role of exit poll was significant in Rose Revolution whereas in Ukraine such poll is

constitutionally prohibited; however, Warren Mitofsky was clandestinely consulted by a head researcher of social survey in Ukraine. Democracy is

statistically related with economic development. Although as Carothers pointed out that transitional process from the former one-party dictatorial

polity to multiparty democratic society, the initiation of democratic elections should be preserved in the former Soviet bloc for the sake of Rule of Law

and civic liberty. Contrary to the ratification of United Nations human rights treaties, the former Soviet bloc countries should develop democratic

society, especially electoral democracy first of all.

CONTENTS

Introduction

1. Warren Mitofsky and Exit Poll

2. Exit Poll Methodology

3. Georgia and Ukraine as Case Studies

4. Economic Factors and Democratization

5. Population, Religion, and Human Rights

Conclusion

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Introduction

Figure 1: World Average Indices on Democratization Adjusted from Freedom House (ED and LD) and Polity IV Project.

Range: 1 (least) to 7 (most )

Year

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

1975

1972

Ave

rage

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

Electoral Democra

Liberal Democarcy

Democratic Polity

In his book, The Third Wave, Samuel P. Huntington maintains that the third democratization in the world has been

prevailed since 1974 when Portuguese people turned down their long-lasting authoritative government with carnation (Huntington

1991, 148-149). Numerous debates, thereafter, have followed in political science and international studies: why democracy should

be prevailed, how democracy works in non-western tradition,

what nature democratic world holds, and the like. Some

researchers provoke cautious discussions on democratization

mainly because it is based on Western Civilization (Bova 1997,

67; Filali-Ansary 1999, 46). However, subsequent researches

show substantial transitions from authoritarianism to

democracy in the late twentieth century, including the former

Soviet bloc.

Although the democratization in the former Soviet bloc is

apparently derived from the resistance against the one-party communist dictatorial polity and pursuit for the liberal democracy, its

tendency should be compared with other regional democratization as political transitional processes. The democratization around

the world has been producing significant ramifications such as

industrial and human resources development. Furthermore,

the economic development of the former Soviet bloc should be

considered; otherwise, the historical backward nostalgia might

be agitated by political elites of the bloc. In the field of

development, Amartya Sen maintains that pure famines have

never occurred in democratic countries in the twentieth century

(Sen 1999, 8).

Regional Average: Polity IV Project

Range: -10 (authoritative) to 10 (democratic)

year

199719921987198219771972

polit

y sc

ore 10

5

0

-5

-10

West Europe

America

East Europe

Asia

Sub-Shara Africa

Middle East

Figure 2: Regional Average Scores

In this paper, the roll of exit poll in electoral democracy

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in Georgia is examined first. Exit poll was formulated for the first time by Warren Mitofsky in 1967 for the gubernatorial election

in the sate of Kentucky. Thereafter, in the U.S., exit poll has been facilitated by major network televisions and media. However,

Mitofsky clearly demonstrated that exit poll is one of the most efficient surveillance on the massive fraud in election in transitional

countries and developing countries. In this paper, the former Soviet bloc is focused although it should be notified that exit poll is

now being used by NGO’s and the government-related organizations in the former Soviet bloc as well as developing countries.

Finally, democratization and the twelve socioeconomic factors are examined.

2. Warren Mitofsy and Exit Poll

Warren Mitofsky was working for TBS election section when he was researching on the effective polling method with

Edelman. First, both were following the conventional method of social survey, in which polls were taken before election day in the

form of telephone interview and mail-delivery questionnaire.

However, as demonstrated in the presidential election in 1948,

the projection of social survey before an election day was

sometimes devious to a wrong estimate.

Mitofsky and Edelman created a new social survey

method, in which they conducted interviewing voters with

some interval right after they were out of the voting places.

This method was first called “election day poll.1) ” The

precision of exit poll projection has been far much better than

conventional social survey before election days. Thus, since 1976, the presidential election has been projected by the exit poll from

coast to coast.

Truman gives a wry smile holding a newspaper saying his defeat in the 1948 presidential election.

Brief History of Exit Poll 18th century Candidates recorded who voted to whom (Morton, 2006) 19th century The results of election gradually affected business opportunities

1824 1st Straw Poll in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 1828 the projectile election results appeared in the U.S. Telegraph

Supporters for a candidate escorted voters Political “machines” affected the voters behavior

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Political Party’s expenditure for campaigns 1896 The Chicago Record invested $60,000 to project the election results by mailing service 20th century the projection to election results Straw Poll became quite popular in newspapers

Assumption: the more samples, the more accurate However, the representativeness is more important. Gender, Races, Incomes, Education Background, Residential Area etc.

1816 Literacy Digest began straw poll in the presidential election Drivers License Registration, Telephone Directory

1920’s Elmo Roper: a jewel business, needed social survey for customers propensity George Gallup: Ph.D. candidate in University of Iowa, political science Archibald Crossley: Independent from Literacy Digest 1932 Literacy Digest projected the results of the presidential election within 2-3% margin 1936 Roper, Gallup, Crossley challenged Literacy Digest in FDR vs. Alf landon

Gallup projected the results: “FRD landslide victory with 19% over Lnadon.” Literacy Digest projected the winning of Landon. ----- LD discontinued publication

1948 Roper, Gallup, Crossley projected the winning of Dewy’s victory over Truman Then-Ratherfeld Theory --- Presidential Election was determined before Labor Day Representativeness, Asians and Mexicans swing voting behaviors.

1956 UNIVAX introduced Warren Mitofsky: 1934-206 1967 Gubernatorial Election of Kentucky 1967-1990 CBS Public Opinion Surey 1990 VES established 1994 - Mitofsky-Edison International

contracted with ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, AP, New York Times, Washingtonpost 1996 Exit Poll on the Russian Presidential Election 2000 Exit Poll on the Russian Parliament Election

The ramification of exit poll is also

tremendous. For example, the official voting

count only shows the number of casting votes;

however, exit poll could add a new phase for

democratic achievement in the U.S. The

number of questionnaire has been increasing

up to around 30 at present from 10 in 1992.

Therefore, the analysis of the results of exit

poll could imply the electoral tendency

representing the voters behaviors.

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However, some questions were cast to exit poll: it affects voters’ behaviors or not. In this issue, American Association for

Public Opinion Research held several conventions to examine the effects. One of the most notable conventions was held in 1981

after the Presidential Election in 1980. In this election, the exit poll projected before noon the defeat of President Carter. In

California, democrat Senator and Representatives brought the case into court that the projections affected their losses in the

election because of the early projection of Democrat President’s defeat.

Nevertheless, AAPOR formerly concluded that the influence of early projection of exit poll is within the error, and the

methodology of exit poll has been developed more up to present.2)

The questionnaire shows the detail of voters behavior. Therefore, the results of exit poll is kept officially in ICCPR and the

library of University of Connecticut.

Exit poll, including social survey, the gist of methodology is its representativeness in sampling. Randomness is one

methodological solution for that,

but that is not enough. The

basic method is randomness; in

selected voting place,

interviewers put an interval

around 10 minutes to halt one

voter to ask the questionnaire or

certain n-th voter in interval they prepared beforehand. Yet, selecting voting place should not be devious to be congested in urban

areas, but also splatter around rural areas to a certain amount. Furthermore, the previous voters’ behaviors of being democrat and

republican also should be considered. If sample voting places are dominated by democratic regions, the results would be biased.

All Protestants

020406080

100

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

%

DemRep

White Protestants

020406080

100

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

%

DemRep

Catholics

020406080

100

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

%

DemRep

Jews

020406080

100

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Year

%

DemRep

Mitofsky and Edelman developed non-biased exit poll as much as possible until Mitofsky passed away in 2006. Mitofsky told

that he and his team made exit poll surveys in Russian Presidential election, Russian Parliament election, Georgia, Azerbaijan as

well as the Philippines, as well as Mexico, Peru and even Taiwan. Now, the U.S. social survey firms are invited by NGOs and the

government affiliated organization in former Soviet bloc and developing countries literally around the world.

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One phrase should be remarked here on exit poll in those countries. Mtofsky said, “I was relieved when a CIA officer showed

us the road to a voting place in the Philippines.3” No one knows how Mitofsky realized that the results of exit poll could result in

what kind of turbulence or violence in the country where he and his team were asked to conduct exit poll.

3. Georgia and Ukraine as Case Studies

Georgia 2003

From Velvet Revolution of Czechoslovakia in 1989 to so-called Tulip Revolution of Kyrgyz in 2005, the former Soviet bloc

experienced democratic revolutions. Among them, Georgia’s Rose Revolution was the onset of democratic revolutions in the region.

The revolutionary movement was said to be shaped by exit poll for the parliamentary election held on November 2 in 2003. The

official data and NGOs estimation were already made public:

2003 Estimation for Each Party percentage in vote counts Exit Poll(11/3) Parallel Voting(11/3) CEC(11/5) CEC(11/7) For New Georgia Bloc 14.2 18.92 31.90 22.33 Democratic Revival Union 7.3 18.84 28.46 20.45 National Movement Bloc 20.7 8.13 1.79 12.87 Labor Party 14.1 17.36 11.53 8.37 Burjanadze-Democrat 8.1 10.15 10.02 7.24 The New Rights Bloc 6.0 7.99 8.48 23.16 Industry Will Save Georgia 3.4 5.20 7.82 5.58

The National Movement Bloc of Saakashvili led in the exit poll, which was conducted by a U.S. social survey

firm, Global Strategy Group. CEC, the Central Election Committee of the Georgian government, presented its

results on November 5. The exit poll shows far less in vote counts to For New Georgian Bloc. On November 5, the

U.S. Embassy in Georgia released a statement; “… The mismanagement and fraud of Georgia’s November 2

parliamentary election denied many Georgian citizens their constitutional right to vote.” At the same time,

protesting voters went to the streets to demand the protection of their voting rights, which was resulted in clashing

with law enforcement troops.

Parallel voting is not based on scientific methodology: voters are asked to vote the same way that they voted in

the official voting places. However, its randomness and representativeness are by far less inaccurate than exit poll

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unless the parallel votes are conducted for all the voters around the country; in the case of Georgia, there were 937

polling stations.

There is another voting check methodology: Quick Vote. It is a kind of watchdog activities in voting places.

Quick vote personnel watch any activities in the voting places and if there are any suspicious acts and behaviors by

voters or government officials, they will correct such behavior and report them to the headquarters. However, such

watchdog activities is also not feasible in the level of a country as a whole.

Thus, exit poll is the most scientific and feasible check for massive election vote count so far. Mitofsky told that

almost all the presidential elections in the former Soviet bloc and industrializing countries ask U.S. social survey

firms to conduct exit polls around the world now.

Ukraine in 2004

In Ukraine, the presidential election in October and November showed close margin between Yushchenko and

Yanukovych as follows.

First Round Results: CEC / October 31, 2004 Second Round Results: CEC / November 21, 2004

V. Yushchenko 11,188,675 39.90% V. Yushchenko 14,222,289 46.61%

V. Yanukovych 11,008,731 39.26% V. Yanukovych 15093691 49.46%

However, there were many appeals to the government and courts that civil rights to vote were infringed by

Yanukovych’s campaign such as no absentee votes and illegal campaigns. Thus, under the surveillance of CSCE,

the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, the presidential election was held on December 26, 2004.

The results are: V. Yushchenko with 15,115,712 or 51.99% votes against V. Yanukovych 12,848,528 or 44.20 %

votes. Because of the majority victory of Yushchenko, there was no second round voting. In the close election race,

exit poll might not detect massive fraud. However, in Ukraine, exit poll is constitutionally prohibited.4

As the debate between Leonid Kuchma and Yuliya Tymoshenko in 2004 before the presidential election,

constitutional adjustment or amendment has been rather discretional on payoffs for political parties. Although a

democratic “Rule of law” is said to be almost established in Ukraine in 1997, its interpretation and adaptation show

rigidity toward free democratic election.

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A social science researcher in Ukraine wrote to the author through a social survey methodology mailing

list-serve provided by University of Maryland that Ukraine social survey researchers consulted with Warren

Mitofsky on “exit poll” in the presidential election in 2004, that is, Orange Revolution. However, Mitofsky did not

mention when the author asked about it.5) It should be remarked that in Ukraine exit poll was constitutionally

prohibited.

The case of Ukraine clearly demonstrated that civil liberty should be promoted more in Ukraine even though

people are oriented to democratic society there.

4. Democratization and Economy

Table 1 : Extreme cases of democratic score difference First, in this analysis, the democratic scores on each

country are grouped into two categories: the 1980’s and the

1990’s to obtain the average score in each decade. For example,

Brazil shows “-7” on a

Extreme Upward Extreme Downward*Czech

verage in the 1980’s and “5.7” in the 1990’s. The

difference is 12.7. Comparing all the difference in each country, twelve are extracted as upward and downward extremes as Table

1. To discuss those extreme cases, the fluctuation of both polity scores and GDP annual growth rate from 1980 to 2000 are shown

in the following Figure 3.

Transition of Bulgaria

- indices on polity and GDP growth rate

year

98969492908886848280

10

0

-10

-20

Polity points

GDP growth rate

Transition of Czech

- indices on polity and GDP growth rate

year

99979593918987858381

20

10

0

-10

-20

Polity Pts

GDP growh rate

16.35 Gambia -7.83Hungary 15.40 Zimbabwe -6.10 Mongolia 15.18 **Peru -5.00 Bulgaria 15.00 **Sudan -4.90 Panama 13.44 **Uganda -3.52 Romania 13.76 **Nigeria -2.44

Note: * Czechslovakia’s scores are used for the 1980’s. **Statistically, these four countries are not extreme

cases since the values are within 95% of distribution.

Figure 3: Extreme Upward Cases between the1980’s and the1990’s Note: Vertical axis shows both polity score and growth rate. Polity scores are between -10 and +10

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Transition of Mongolia

- indices on polity and GDP growth rate

year

98969492908886848280

20

10

0

-10

-20

Plity pts

GDP growth rate

Transition of Hungary

- indices on polity and GDP growth rate

year

98969492908886848280

20

10

0

-10

-20

Polity pts

GDP growth rate

Transition of Panama

- indices on polity and GDP growth rate

year

98969492908886848280

20

10

0

-10

-20

Polity points

GDP growth rate

Transition of Romania

- indices on polity and GDP growth rate

year

98969492908886848280

10

0

-10

Polity points

GDP growth rate

In the six highest upward extreme cases shown in the figures above, there is a significant tendency in gaining polity scores:

all the score increase occurred within three years, from1988 to 1990. Furthermore, two countries show two step wise rise:

Romania and Mongolia.6) In Mongolia, free election was held in 1990, but reverse wave was pulled by the former communist party,

which stood against the pace of free market and stagnated the rise of democracy. However, in 1998, a pro-reformist was elected

prime minister. The same process happened in Romania when the former communist party became more cautious on a free

market economy. Although the second steps of rising democratic scores in both countries are not contingent with the advancement

of pro-reformists, they might be successful cases of “two turnover test” 7) introduced by Huntington (Huntington 1991, 267).

All the cases above, except for Panama8), show that the rising democratic scores cross the sharp drop of economic growth

rate. Considering the fact that the level of economic growth has not changed dramatically after the democratic shift, there are

some possibilities of downward democratic scores any moment. In this respect, market should be not developed in haste in those

transitional countries. It might be more important for them to consolidate democracy while market mechanism is developed step

by step. Such a process can be seen in People’s Republic of China.

5. Population and Religion

The Smaller, the more Democratic

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Table 4: Population and Democracy

Montesquieu suggests in the eighteenth century that democracy would be adopted by smaller countries (Cohler 1991,

145). He does not try to diminish the value and significance of democracy, but rather tries to develop the virtue of commerce in

democratic societies.9)

Montesquieu suggests in the eighteenth century that democracy would be adopted by smaller countries (Cohler 1991,

145). He does not try to diminish the value and significance of democracy, but rather tries to develop the virtue of commerce in

democratic societies.9)

Electoral Democracy Electoral Democracy Liberal Democracy Liberal Democracy Year N Chi-s R P Chi-s R P

Population 1980 155 .230 -.075 .357 .176 -.087 .284 1999 191 .018 -.239 .001 .001 -.329 .000

Rural population 1980 155 .002 -.361 .000 .000 -.405 .000 2000 191 .000 -.378 .000 .000 -.365 .000

Rural population growth 1980 155 .004 -.269 .001 .001 -.308 .000 2000 191 .001 -.367 .000 .000 -.370 .000

Urban population 1980 155 .002 .352 .000 .000 .339 .000 2000 191 .000 .387 .000 .000 .373 .000

Urban population growth 1980 155 .000 -.434 .000 .000 -.461 .000 2000 191 .000 -.471 .000 .000 -.469 .000

The relations between democracy and population give some insights on population issues, such as urban and rural problems

in development program. Chi-square tests are given to population and democracy as in Table 4-1 and the results are shown.10)

Significantly, population itself is negatively correlated with democracy in 1999. This proves the discourse of Montesquieu:

the smaller, the more democratic. As for urban and rural relations, it is notable that the urban growth rate is negatively associated

with democratic scores whereas urban population is positively. Some size of urbanization is suitable for democratization.

However, excessive urbanization might harm its process. It causes environmental problems as well as uncontrollable informal

sectors. Therefore, it is required to develop efficient, stable urban-rural relations by local governments.

Regression and Structural Models on Population Shift

The regression model of population factors is remarkably significant statistically. Comparing with other regression models

discussed in 5 and 6 this model will explain more on democratization around the world. The factors of population and its relevance

with urban and rural areas must be related to centralization and decentralization of authority. It seems that centralization draws

more people into urban areas, and that unfortunately it is closely relating to authoritarian governance. In this perspective,

decentralization should be more considered between urban-rural issues.

RM = e1*(population) + e2*(urban pop.) + e3*(urban pop. growth) + (rural pop. growth)

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Table 5: Regression Model on Population with Electoral, Liberal Democracy N R ANOVA p-value YEAR 1980 2000 1980 2000 1980 2000 Electoral Democracy 155 191 .479 .480 .000 .000 Liberal Democracy 155 191 .508 .506 .000 .000

It clearly shows the coefficient of p-values in urban population and urban population growth affect the model the most drastically.

Among them, urban population growth is the critical factor on democratization in the year of 2000. It is recommendable that

urban population growth should be regulated more to realize democracy in terms of this model.

Table 6 P-values of Variables in Regression Models Variables Coefficient p-value VIF 1980 2000 1980 2000

Population(1980,1999) ED .523 .455 1.012 1.017 LD .734 .298 1.012 1.017 Rural Pop. Growth ED .685 .701 1.461 2.100 LD .889 .403 1.461 2.100 Urban Pop. ED .001 .188 1.574 1.783 LD .000 .358 1.574 1.783 Urban Pop. Growth ED .001 .000 1.383 2.049 LD .002 .000 1.383 2.049 Note: If Coefficient p-values are close to “0,” the factor contribute more

Significantly to the regression model.

To analyze the causal relations between democratic indices and population factors, structural modeling was constructed.

The standardized coefficients directly show which factors hold causal effects on democratization.

The factor of rural population is the most negatively causal to the level of democracy, followed by urban population growth as

shown in Figure 4 and 5.

PR80

RUGRO80RUPOP80

POP80

-.39 -.03

.05

.07.02

.43

e1

PR80

URPOP80 URGRO80

POP80

.04

.26 -.29

-.37

-.08 .01

e2

Figure 4-:Urbanity and Democratic Level Figure 5:Rurality and Democratic Level

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Table 7 Standardized Coefficients to Electoral and Liberal Democracy

Regional Ratification Percentage of ICESR

a

200219971992198719821977

perc

en

80

20

ye r

0

t 100

60

40

Ea est Europ

West Europe

erica

Africa

iddle East

Asia

eani

Am

M

Oc a

Regional Ratification Percentage of ICCPR

year

1992777

rcen

t

60

40

20

20021997198198219

0

pe 80

100

East Europe

West Europe

erica

frica

Middle East

Asia

eania

Am

A

Oc

Figure 7-1 Fig re 7-2 u

ED LD 1980 2000 1980 2000

Model A Population .04 -.05 .02 -.06 Urban Population .26 .11 .31 .14 Urban Pop. Growth Rate -.29 -.38 -.29 -.40 Model B Population .05 -.06 .03 -.06 Rural Population -.39 -.19 -.40 -.21 Rural Pop. Growth Rate -.03 -.26 -.09 -.30 Note: Model A: Population, Urban population, and Urban population growth rate (Figure4-1) Model B: Population, Rural population, and Rural population growth rate (Figure4-2)

Here is a dilemma between population shifts and democratization. As Table 7 shows, urban population is positively

causal to democracy and rural population is negatively. Ostensibly, it seems to be suitable that population shift from rural to urban

promotes democratization. However, urban population growth rate is the most saliently negative effect on democratization. Thus,

theoretically, rural population should not be absorbed into urban areas. This indicates that rural population cannot move out, but

just decreasing its number is the best for democratization. To break this stalemate, the family plan in rural areas in developing

countries must be one of the solutions. Or it will be another solution to bring about civic society in rural areas. The

developmental program should take such rural-urban problems into account seriously.

Religious Propensity on Democratization

Table 9 Correlation between Religion and Democracy in 2000

Percentage of Religions (number of countries) Electoral Democracy Christian Muslims Buddhism Others Total Least 7.3 16.7 3.1 1.6 28.6 Less 8.9 6.6 0.0 1.6 17.2 More 13.5 2.1 2.6 3.6 21.9

Most 29.7 0.0 1.0 1.6 32.3 Total 39.4 25.5 6.8 8.3 100.0 P-value of Chi-square = .000 Spearman’s R = -.448 P-value of R = .000 Liberal Democracy P-value of Chi-square = .000 Spearman’s R = -.495 P-value of R = .000 Note: Due to the distortional number so countries, percentage is used.

The ratio of population in major groups are: Christians, 33.7 percent, Muslims, 1 percent, Hindus, 13.7 percent, and

Buddhists, 5.6 percent (Statistical Abstract of the United States 1997, 1333).

9.4

11) There is a strong correlation between religion and

electoral democracy.12)

The Christian countries are by far more democratic than others. It is important to notice that many former colonies had

been mostly under the trusteeship of Christian countries. Traditional beliefs and Western heritage might have long confronted

each other in the developing countries. However, Filali-Ansary argues that democracy does not necessarily confront Islamic values

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and tradition (Fil6ai-Ansary 1999, 44). The confrontation between democratic process and traditional beliefs will continue.

However, there are some countries with strong historical tradition, which have been directed to democracy: e.g., Japan is one of

them. In this perspective, democracy would be prevailed more when developing countries take on and compromise with

democratic values.

3. A Paradox of the Ratification in International Human Rights

There is a critical paradox of the ratification of the treaties in international human rights. As seen in Figure 6 and 7,

Eastern European countries have ratified two of them more than any other regions.

Furthermore, among twenty-five international treaties, those countries have ratified around eighteen of them on average

while West European countries have ratified around fifteen on average.13) As observed in democratic scores, Eastern Europe had

not been democratized, especially before 1989. The ratification of human rights treaties does not necessarily mean the

implementation of their requirements.

Regional Ratification Percentage of ICCPR

year

200219971992198719821977

perc

ent 100

80

60

40

20

0

Regional Ratification Percentage of ICESR100

80

From the view of liberalism, the central authority is a restraint to individual behaviors. Human beings are born equal,

but raised to be different. The same logic is applied to nations around the world: all the countries are supposed to be imaginary

equal. However, in reality, individuals are diversified to the extent that interests are confronted with each other. Facing to

confrontation, individuals come to learn to be tolerant and compromise with each other for the sake of protecting their own values

(Owen 1994, 123).

year

200219971992198719821977

perc

ent

60

40

20

0

East Europe

West Europe

America

Africa

Middle East

Asia

Oceania

East Europe

West Europe

America

Africa

Middle East

Asia

Oceania

Figure 6 Figure 7

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Here, liberalism holds its realistic principle onto international society. As individuals differed from one another, nations

are involved with different interests and processes. Liberalism should be held in international society to be an engine toward

democratic world, where human virtues are protected, not only by the international legal frameworks, but by people’s own will.

6. Factor Analysis

Factor Analysis

The twelve factors are examined from section two to five in this paper. Some factors show their significance relating to

democratization, and others do not. In factor analysis, eight factors are selected, which are proved to be statistically significant.

The results are shown in Table 6-1.

Table 6-1: Variables and Components of Factor Analysis

Components 1980 1997

Variables 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 Eigenvalue 2.880 1.396 1.097 1.056 3.412 1.183 1.051

GDP per capita -.005 .038 .859 .431 -.145 .184 .793 GDP growth rate .297 .861 .113 -.065 .712 .497 .170 Literacy .797 -.117 .320 .020 -.785 .373 .008 Population .028 -.037 -.333 .908 .150 .453 -.593 Urban growth rate -.722 .393 .215 -.080 -.808 .263 .118

Newspaper .859 .255 -.034 -.038 .822 .179 .152 Radio .770 .289 -.202 .087 .833 .286 .039 Religion .547 -.579 .212 -.158 .453 -.612 .056

In 1980, the first components show high positive scores in newspaper, literacy, and radio. At the same time, it includes a

high negative score in urban growth rate. This tendency is observed in 1999 as well. Therefore, matured urbanization or stable

rural life are sufficient conditions for democratization at large. The other three factors in 1980 are almost equal in eigenvalues, so

the loadings of communality are almost of the same. Three of them show high ratio in economic indices. However, the first

component is so prominent that it might be called a media-literacy factor for economic growth.

In 1997, literacy rate is significantly negative. The second components are characterized with non-religious factors.

Therefore, it might be called “non-religious socio-economic stability.” The third component seems to show “economic efficiency.”

Overall, in 1997, the factors are correlated with media-economic nature of society with stability and efficiency.

Conclusion

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In conclusion, exit poll played remarkable role in Georgia’s Rose Revolution, which triggered color revolutions in the former

Soviet bloc. However, as seen in the case of Ukraine, some countries prohibited exit polls. The most important is that the former

Soviet bloc should be prevailed by rule of law and civil liberty, and exit poll is precisely projected in terms of their sizes: most

countries are equal to one of the 50 states of the U.S. Authoritarian tendency hold dangerously dramatic reverse course toward

communism and dictatorial polity in the future. In this sense, it is notable that many U.S. social survey firms are conducting exit

polls in the former Soviet bloc to check massive fraud in presidential and parliamentary elections.

Democracy should not be handed down, but it should be maintained and developed among people in their own hands. If it

cannot be obtained by people’s civil peaceful movement easily as Japan before World War II, who could be an engine to promote

democratic movement for people and their countries? The search for democratic international relations should not be ceased

although democratic peace has not achieved in the regional bases.

1) Mitofsky told in his class that he did not like the name of “exit poll.” The name was changed during 1980’s by a network television director, he

implied.

2) In the convention, not only the supporters for exit poll, but also critics also made remarkable speeches, including some restriction on exit poll surveyors to keep distance from the voting places. Some of the measures are now taken in the state of Washington, especially western coast states.

3) Mitofsky’s special course on exit poll in Columbia University Gradate School was held in 2005 and 2006. 4) There is a social survey mailing list-serve provided by University of Maryland. A researcher from Ukraine asked a methodology of exit poll under

the constitutionally prohibited circumstances. 5) In 2006, a researcher in a university of Ukraine sent me a in which Migofsky and a Ukraine professor appeared in it together. 6） Mongolia is one of the Asian countries which have achieved democracy in the 1990’s. According to Polity IV project, the other democratized

countries in East Asia are as follows.

Democratic Scores in East Asia and Asia Nies

Year

19961990198419781972

Average Score

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8-10

Japan

Mongolia

Taiwan

Korea, S.

Singapore

China

Korea, N.

D

Data: Polity IV Project: 1972 to 2000 7） According to Huntington, democracy in the third wave is consolidated not by the first democratic

government, but the second one after the previous authoritative government was turned over. 8) In Panama, the first directly elected President was replaced politically. This might give the

different perspective to Panama than other extreme cases. However, since 1990, both GDP growth rate and democratic scores rose markedly.

9) The original text of this part in English is: In order for the spirit of commerce to be maintained

- 16 -

the principal citizens must engage in commerce themselves; … these same laws, whose provisions divide fortunes in proportion as commerce increases them, must make each poor citizen comfortable enough to be able to work as the others do and must bring each rich citizen to a middle level such that he needs to work in order to preserve or to acquire (Cohler 1995, 48).

10) Note: To interpret the results, Chi-s. shows P-values of Chi-square tests, the smaller the value is,the more dependent the variables are. The

critical value for 95% significance with both tales is .050. The next R shows how two variables are correlated: if it is negative, the correlation is negative. The last P value shows the intensity of correlation: if the value is less than .050, the correlation is significantly strong.

11) According to Abstract Statistics of the United States, world religions are categorized to eighteen.

However, the population of other religions is less than 100 million in total, which is around of the same of that of Hindus, and slightly larger than those of Buddhists.

12) It is often difficult to label a country regarding to religion. For example, Tanzania holds

Christians and Muslims, but their populations are almost of the same: Christians 34% and Muslim 33%. Furthermore, they are localized, so it is almost impossible to label Tanzania one religion.

13) The United Nations has issued around 25 international human rights treaties. The average number of ratification in each region is as follows: 15

in West Europe, 18 in East Europe, 11 in CIS countries, 12 in North and Central America, 15 in South America, 6 in Oceania, 8 in Asia, 12 in Middle East and North Africa, and 11 in Sub-Sahara Africa (The United Nations Instrument for International Human Rights, 1997).

APPENDIX

Proof of Finite Correction Term,)1(

)1(−−nN

nN

Osaka) of y(UniversitFujiwara IkurobyProof

r

.

?denominatoitsforn""not"1,n"useshouldvariancesampleWhy −

}......{ 111321 NNnnn xxxxxxxxPopulation −+−=

).....(1)( 111321 NNnnn xxxxxxxxN

meanPopulation +++++++++= −+−μ

})(...)()({ 222

21 μμμσ −++−+−= Nxxx

N1variance)n(Populatio2

nN

NNnNnNnNk

nn

nn

Ckwhere

xxxxxs

xxxxxsxxxxxsSample

=

=

==

−+−+−+−

+−

−

}...{...

}...{}...{:

1321

113212

13211

- 17 -

)...(1...

)...(1

)...(1:

1321

113212

13211

NNnNnNnNk

nn

nn

xxxxxn

m

xxxxxn

m

xxxxxn

mmeanSample

+++++=

+++++=

+++++=

−+−+−+−

+−

−

nN

kNkNknNknNknN

nn

nn

Crepresentskwhere

mxmxmxmxmxn

mxmxmxmxmxn

mxmxmxmxmxn

})()(..).()()({1...

})()(..).()()({1

})()(..).()()({1

221

23

22

21

221

221

223

222

221

21

211

213

212

211

−+−++−+−+−=

−+−++−+−+−=

−+−++−+−+−=

−+−+−+−

+−

−

mk

m2

m1

:varianceSample

σ

σ

σ

:isvariancessampletheallofMean

).........(111;1321 kkNNNnmmmk

σσσσσσσσσ +++++++++++= −−

]})(...)()({...

})(...)()({

})(...)()({[11

2222

211

221

222

221

21

212

211

NNnNnNnNnN

n

n

mxmxmx

mxmxmx

mxmxmxnk

−+−++−+−+−+−+

−+−++−+−+−+−+

−+−++−+−+−+−=

+−+−+−+−

+

μμμμμμ

μμμμμμ

μμμμμμ

,}{ termfirsttheIn

- 18 -

21

1

21

111

21

2111

1

21

21

121

222

21

211

2

2112

22

2111

21

21

212

211

)()(

)()(2)(

)()}({2)(

)(

))}((...)()({2)(...)()(

)())((2)(...

)())((2)()())((2)(

})(...)()({

mnmx

mnmnmx

mnmnmnmx

mn

mxxxxxx

mmxx

mmxxmmxx

mxmxmx

n

ii

n

ii

n

ii

n

n

nn

n

−−−=

−+−−−=

−+−×−×+−=

−+

−−++−+−+−++−+−=

−+−−+−+

−+−−+−+

−+−−+−=

−+−++−+−+−+−

∑

∑

∑

=

=

=

μ

μμ

μμμ

μ

μμμμμμμ

μμμμ

μμμμ

μμμμ

μμμμμμ

:isvariancessampleallofmeanthe,mtomfromTherefore, N1

})(...)()({111 222

21

211 NnN mmm

kNC

nk−++−+−−= −− μμμσ

QnN

nNNnnN

NnN

nnN 22

1)!1()!()!1(

!!)!( σσ

−−

−−−

−−= (☆)

22

)1()1(}

)1(1{ σσ

−−

=−−

−=NnnN

nNnN

,var, iancesampleunbiasedanobtaintoThus

})()(..).()()({1)1()1( 2

12

112

132

122

11 mxmxmxmxmxnnN

Nnnn −+−++−+−+−

−−

−

})()(..).()()({1

11 21

211

213

212

211 mxmxmxmxmx

nNN

nn −+−++−+−+−−

−= −

When N tends to infinity, 11≅

−N

N

)1(, −nbybutnbynotsampleaofdeviationsquaredofsumthedevidetoneedWe

.

■

- 19 -

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