Political divisions over climate change and environmental issues in Australia

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Political divisions over climate change and environmental issues inAustraliaBruce Trantera

a School of Sociology and Social Work University of Tasmania Hobart Australia

Online publication date 18 January 2011

To cite this Article Tranter Bruce(2011) Political divisions over climate change and environmental issues in AustraliaEnvironmental Politics 20 1 78 mdash 96To link to this Article DOI 101080096440162011538167URL httpdxdoiorg101080096440162011538167

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Political divisions over climate change and environmental issues in

Australia

Bruce Tranter

School of Sociology and Social Work University of Tasmania Hobart Australia

Willingness to pay to address environmental problems is influenced bypartisanship in Australia Ceteris paribus the support base of environ-mental concerns is generally much stronger among Labor and Greensupporters postmaterialists those who engage in eastern spiritual practicesand professionals Women are more likely than men to favour environ-mental protection over economic growth to pay extra tax to protect theenvironment and to believe global warming will pose a serious threatduring their lifetime Support for renewable energy is stronger amongyounger Australians suggesting demand may increase with generationalreplacement Political leaders influence public concerns over globalwarming and other environmental issues across the partisan divide yetwhile political elites remain divided over the implications of climaticchange the shift in public opinion and behaviour necessary to avert suchproblems is unlikely to occur

Keywords Green environmental movement political leaders climatechange global warming

Introduction

Global warming has attracted considerable international attention in recentyears with governments in many countries beginning to at least engage indialogue over the consequences of anthropocentric climate change Australiagained the reputation of a climate change laggard under Prime Minister JohnHowardrsquos (1996ndash2007) lengthy conservative reign (Rootes 2008) Immediatelyfollowing the election of the Rudd Labor Government in November 2007Australia announced its ratification of the Kyoto protocol at the UnitedNations Climate Change Conference in Bali and supported a 2050 target ofreducing greenhouse gas emissions by 60 of 2000 levels The years that

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Environmental PoliticsVol 20 No 1 February 2011 78ndash96

ISSN 0964-4016 printISSN 1743-8934 online

2011 Taylor amp Francis

DOI 101080096440162011538167

httpwwwinformaworldcom

Downloaded By [University of Tasmania] At 2209 8 March 2011

followed saw a shift towards action on climate change A lsquoCarbon PollutionReduction Schemersquo White Paper was produced in December 20081 outliningthe governmentrsquos carbon emission targets for 2020 and an emissions tradingscheme (ETS) bill was introduced to federal parliament in 2009 butsubsequently rejected by the Senate2

The Howard government placing highest priority on economic growth wasmoving only slowly and cautiously towards action to inhibit carbon emissionsWhile the Rudd governmentrsquos proposed ETS does not go as far as manyenvironmental movement organisations and groups would like the governmenthas taken positive steps towards addressing climate change including theaddition of a new Minister for Climate Change Confronted by formeropposition leaders Brendan Nelson (2007ndash2008) and Turnbull (2008ndash2009)Prime Minster Rudd enjoyed a very high approval rating as preferred PrimeMinister and a healthy lead in the polls While Turnbull a supporter of actionon climate change and former environment minister in the Howardgovernment was opposition leader partisan differences were muted with thetwo major party leaders in agreement over the need to act if not on the precisemeans of action However 2010 saw the elevation of Tony Abbott to theleadership of the opposition Liberal party Like Howard before him Abbott isopenly sceptical of the implications of climate change Abbott recentlyadvanced his own climate change policy that encourages industry to reduceemissions but does not cap them (Curtis 2010) While welcomed by bigbusiness it has received heavy criticism from other sources including formerLiberal leader Malcolm Turnbull who claims Abbottrsquos lsquopolicyrsquo merelyrepresents a political stratagem rather than a serious attempt to combatclimate change3

As in the United States (see Dunlap and McCright 2008 Hamilton 2008)so in Australia a serious partisan divide now exists over commitment to actionon climate change with the coalition partners broadly against and Labor andthe Greens in favour Following Abbottrsquos election to the Liberal leadership ashift appeared in public opinion with the coalition clawing back Laborrsquoselectoral advantage4

Employing nationally representative data from the 2007 Australian Surveyof Social Attitudes (AuSSA) and 2007 Australian Election Study (AES) Iexamine several questions related to the issue of climate change Relevant tothe domestic Australian context this also has broader implications regardingthe influence of political leaders and partisanship upon environmental issuesupport Of major concern here is the importance of global warming andclimate change vis-a-vis other environmental issues in Australia In addition Iconsider how environmental issue support is socially and politicallycircumscribed how willing Australians are to act to address environmentalproblems as opposed to merely expressing their concern and the extent towhich political leaders influence their partisan followers in relation toenvironmental issues such as global warming

Environmental Politics 79


Social background of environmental issues in Australia

Concern over environmental issues has been explained in terms of valuepriorities age and generational differences gender education place and socialclass (eg Inglehart 1990 Tranter 1996 McAllister and Studlar 1999) ForInglehart (1997) citizens of advanced industrialised countries born after WorldWar II are more likely to hold lsquopostmaterialrsquo values prioritise free speech andseek greater say in political decision making lsquoMaterialistsrsquo on the other handgive precedence to economic and security issues5

Postmaterialists are more likely than materialists to be concerned aboutenvironmental issues (Pakulski and Tranter 2004) join environmental groups(Tranter 1996) participate in protest actions and vote for Green politicalparties (Inglehart 1990 1997 Muller-Rommel 1990 Papadakis 1993 Crookand Pakulski 1995 Tranter 1999 2010 Tranter and Western 2003) InAustralia however as a predictor of environmental concern postmaterialvalues may be attenuated as different generations vary only minimally in theirvalue orientations (Tranter and Western 2003)

Women have lsquosignificantly more general environmental concern than menrsquo(Zelezny et al 2000 pp 444ndash445) and lsquoplay more prominent roles in grass-roots mobilisationsrsquo (Rootes 2004 p 617) In Australia women are more likelyto participate in environmental demonstrations although they are not morelikely than men to join environmental groups (Tranter 1996) The lsquonew classrsquoand lsquonew middle classrsquo allegedly exhibit pro-environmental behaviours (Kriesi1989) although for Rootes (1995 p 227) the key factor underlyingenvironmental support is tertiary education (Tranter 1997) In Australiaassociations between new class location and environmental activism are weakalthough there is a strong effect for tertiary education (Tranter 1996 p 73) Infact Inglehart (1990) claims the educated articulate and politically skilled oras he labels them the lsquocognitively mobilisedrsquo are most likely to participate inthe environmental movement Those on the left of the political spectrum arealso more supportive of environmental issues than those on the right (Tranter1996) Finally viewing nature as lsquospiritual or sacred in itselfrsquo is associated withenvironmental activism (Tranter 1996 p 76) as is support from those whoengage in eastern spiritualist practices such as Buddhism (eg Kaza and Kraft2000 Queen 2000)

Environmental issues in Australia

Pakulski et al (1998) drawing upon Weber argue that environmental issuesbecome lsquoroutinisedrsquo as radical new issues and lsquounconventionalrsquo forms ofpolitical participation enter the political mainstream Routinisation in thiscontext involves the lsquoabsorption of social innovations into the established andtypically institutionalised ways of doing and experiencing things throughrepetition and habituationrsquo (Pakulski et al 1998 p 239) Routinisation isassociated with declining levels of environmental group membership andreduced levels of public support for such groups (Pakulski et al 1998 p 241) a

80 B Tranter


lsquoshift from new unusual and uniquersquo (eg the environment as a lsquonewrsquo politicalissue) lsquoto old expected and familiarrsquo (ie environmental issues tend to beabsorbed into political party platforms and are increasingly absorbed byconventional political institutions) (Pakulski et al 1998 p 239)

These changes are accompanied by a shift from protest-based charismaticactivist leaders to lobbyists green party politicians and bureaucrats (Pakulskiet al 1998 pp 239ndash240) Similar trends occurred in Western Europe a processRootes (1999 p 155) refers to as the lsquoinstitutionalisationrsquo of environmentalmovement organisations as they are lsquoaccorded at least some measure ofinstitutionalised access to decision-making arenarsquo enabling lsquonew institutionalarrangements and opportunities for communication and debatersquo with lsquopolicy-makers and established economic actors and interest groupsrsquo

Crook and Pakulski (1995) and Pakulski et al (1998) divide environmentalissues into lsquogreenrsquo (ie logging of forests and wildlife preservation) and lsquobrownrsquoclusters (ie pollution and waste disposal) Mass media tend to concentrateupon lsquobrownrsquo issues while environmental groups focus their campaigns aroundlsquogreenrsquo issues Concern over lsquogreenrsquo issues tends to be stronger among youngertertiary educated secular left of centre urban-based Australians (Pakulski andTranter 2004 p 225)

Political leaders and partisans

Drawing upon opinion poll data Pietsch and McAllister (2010 p 232) showthat a significant minority of Australians claim to understand the concept of anETS and while there is majority support for its implementation lsquoa largeminority remains to be convinced of the merits of an ETSrsquo This lsquolargeminorityrsquo is of particular interest here However Pietsch and McAllisterrsquosanalyses were based mainly upon the results of a short opinion poll and did notreport on political partisanship or evaluations of political leaders factors that Iconsider to be crucial determinants of support (or otherwise) for action toaddress climate change

Inglehartrsquos (1990) claims that cognitively skilled citizens tend to bepolitically active likely to participate in new social movements and to supportlsquonew politicsrsquo or lsquoleft-libertarianrsquo parties are also relevant here (also seeKitschelt 1990 Muller-Rommel 1990) Political party identification has beenshown to influence attitudes and voting behaviour (Campbell et al 1960 Miller1976) Party identification is claimed to act as a lsquosimplifying functionrsquo thathelps voters sift through complex political issues while political leaders providecues that lsquoguide the political thought and action of the party identifierrsquo (Miller1976 p 23) As Campbell et al (1960 p 133) put it party identification acts asa lsquoperceptual screen through which the individual tends to see what is favorableto his partisan orientationrsquo While the partisan dealignment thesis emphasisesweakening partisan loyalties (Dalton et al 1984 Dalton 1996) partisanshipremains a powerful predictor of voting behaviour in many countries includingAustralia (Bean 1996 1997 Bartels 1996)



In a broader sense when individuals are either interested in or detachedfrom issues lsquocue taking is likely to be a more common means of evaluatingpolitical issues than substantive assessment of competing evidence andargumentsrsquo (Gilens and Murakawa 2002 p 21) In the present context thecues provided by party leaders on climate change may therefore at leastpartly structure attitudes and behavioural intentions In relation to elite cueslsquothe greater a personrsquos level of habitual political awareness the more likelyshe is to receive these messages Also the greater a personrsquos level ofawareness the more likely she is able under certain circumstances to resistinformation that is inconsistent with her basic values or partisanshiprsquo (Zaller1992 p 266)

Drawing upon referendum data from Switzerland Sciarini et al (2007)demonstrated the lsquopolarising effectrsquo a lsquodivided elitersquo can have Where politicalleaders are at odds over issues including environmental issues there is a highlikelihood that their divisions will be reflected among partisans In the UnitedStates Dunlap and McCright (2008) found a substantial and widening gapbetween major party supporters over global warming They trace this divideto lsquoskepticism among Republican and conservative elitesrsquo and lsquoleadingconservative media figuresrsquo (Dunlap and McCright 2008 p 28) The partisandivide over climate change in the United States is complicated by educationwith Hamilton and Keim (2009) finding interaction effects between partisan-ship and education such that concern over global warming lsquoincreased witheducation among Democrats and decreased with education amongRepublicansrsquo6

The extent of the partisan divide over global warming in the UnitedStates is even greater among those who claim to have a good understandingof the process of global warming (Dunlap and McCright 2008 p 33) InAustralia Tranter (2007) has shown higher levels of political knowledge tobe associated with a tendency to vote split between the upper and lowerhouses of parliament lsquoKnowledgeable votersrsquo tend to favour Labor for theHouse of Representatives but vote Green for the Senate even after holdingsocial background factors constant Given the demonstrated importance ofpolitical knowledge structuring Green voting and cognitive skills forsupport of green causes a political knowledge scale is included in analysesof AES data below7 Employing data from the 2007 AES I consider theinfluence of political partisanship and evaluations of political leadersupon environmental attitudes including beliefs in the reality of climatechange

While the environmental influence of political leaders and partisanship is amajor focus here I also draw upon new questions designed for the 2007AuSSA to explicate the social and political bases of environmental issuesupport willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental protection and WTPextra for energy generated from renewable sources in order to reduce theimpact of global warming Responses to these questions are analysed belowwith multivariate statistical methods

82 B Tranter


Data and method

In order to gauge the level of environmental concern and the social and politicalbases of environmentalism on a national basis two main sources of data areanalysed The 2007 AuSSA and the 2007 AES The AuSSA is a systematicsample of 2583 cases with a response rate of 39 (Phillips et al 2008) The 2007AES is also a nationally representative survey with a sample size of 1873 anda response rate of 40 (Bean et al 2008) Both surveys employed separatesystematic samples drawn from the 2007 federal electoral roll

AES data from 1990 to 2004 are also presented to allow comparisons ofenvironmental issue support over time (see Bean et al 2005) using the questionlsquoHow urgent are each of the following environmental concerns in this countryrsquoSlightly different versions of these questions appear in the AES and AuSSAThe AES also asked respondents to prioritise issues lsquoWhich two of the aboveenvironmental issues has worried you personally the most in the last 12months Which is the most urgent and which is the second most urgentrsquo

In an examination of survey data from the International Social SurveyProgramme (ISSP) Ivanova and Tranter (2008) found public WTP highertaxes or higher prices for environmental protection actually decreased inseveral countries over time Here I consider how willing Australians are to actrather than merely express concern over environmental issues In additionquestions previously included in the ISSP that asked about WTP extra taxes orprices to protect lsquothe environmentrsquo were modified by the author for the 2007AuSSA to differentiate between the local national and global environmentlsquoHow willing would you be to pay higher taxes in order to protect the quality ofthe

Local environment (ie your neighborhood)

National environment (ie countrywide)

Global environment (ie worldwide)rsquo

When considering the determinants of WTP for environmental protectionan obvious suspect is income Other things being equal those on higherincomes should be able if not necessarily more willing to pay more thanlower-income respondents Several previous studies have shown WTP forenvironmental quality and services varies according to household income(Witzke and Urfei 2001 Hokby and Soderqvist 2003 Israel 2004) althoughStumborg et al (2001) found positive although only weak correlations forincome and Israel and Levinson (2004) positive but weak and statisticallynon-significant associations between per capita gross national product andWTP higher taxes for environmental protection

Results

What were the most important environmental issues for Australian adults overthe last two decades Data from the AES and AuSSA in Figure 1 provide a



temporal comparison on six environmental issues that have appeared innational surveys since 1990 Some qualifications are necessary The 2007AuSSA refers to lsquoclimate changersquo which is a related but clearly differentconcept from the lsquogreenhouse effectrsquo referred to in the question in the AESsurveys Although different surveys are compared here both employ the samemail outmail back administration and similar follow-up strategies to maximiseresponse rates and both were administered by a team of researchers at theAustralian National University The results should therefore be comparable

In 1990 pollution was the most important issue for Australians with 58claiming it to be lsquovery urgentrsquo followed by soil degradation (52) and thegreenhouse effect (51) However these cross-sectional survey results indicatethat the proportion of respondents claiming wildlife preservation pollutionsoil erosion and waste disposal to be lsquovery urgentrsquo has actually declined overtime quite substantially for the latter three issues Alternatively concern overlogging of forests an issue championed by environmental movementorganisations such as The Wilderness Society remains relatively consistentafter rising somewhat in 2001 and 2004 while greenhouseclimate changeappears to have increased in urgency in 2007 After declining from 19962004

Figure 1 Environmental issues in Australia 1990ndash2007 Question lsquoHow urgent areeach of the following environmental concerns in this countryrsquo The lsquoGreenhousersquoquestion referred to lsquoclimate changersquo in the 2007 AuSSA and the lsquogreenhouse effectrsquo inthe AES (1990ndash2004)Sources Australian Election Studies 1990ndash2004 and Australian Survey of SocialAttitudes 2007

84 B Tranter


levels concern over greenhouseclimate change now approaches the high levelsof the lsquogreen electionrsquo of 1990 (Bean et al 1990)

The most important environmental issue

While several environmental issues are shown in Figure 1 in recent years otherissues have emerged as particularly noteworthy What were the most importantenvironmental issues in 2007 Respondents were asked lsquohow urgent are each ofthe following environmental concerns in this countryrsquo and then asked to ranktheir first and second most important choices from the 10 issues listed Theitems include issues that have an impact locally nationally or globally Somequestions appeared in earlier AES (Figure 1) while some such as the lsquodroughtrsquolsquorenewable energyrsquo and lsquoclimate changersquo are recent additions only administeredin the 2007 AuSSA (Table 1)

Perhaps in contrast to expectations driven by the media coverage climatechange receives the prolonged drought in many parts of the country wasidentified as by far the most important issue with 42 identifying it as themost important issue and a further 19 as their second choice In addition72 claim the drought to be a lsquovery urgentrsquo issue with renewable energy andclimate change the next most urgent issues both on 49 although climatechange (26) ranked much higher than renewable energy (6) as an issue lsquoofmost concernrsquo Another way of establishing issue importance is by consideringthe prioritisation of pairs of issue concerns A cross-tabulation of the first andsecond most important issues (not shown) suggests that people who selectedthe drought and climate change combination (as either first or second choice)accounted for 27 of the sample drought and renewable energy 10 droughtand pollution 8 and climate change and renewable energy 65 Clearlyclimate change is seen as important but not as important as the drought

Table 1 Most important and urgency of environmental issues ()

First Second Very urgent

Drought 421 187 719Climate change 261 221 485Pollution 112 106 347Renewable energy 57 173 493Logging of forests 36 62 336Nuclear power 33 52 237Destruction of wildlife 32 73 390Waste disposal 19 42 249Loss of biodiversity 18 40 287Soil degradation 11 45 311N 2447 2426 ndash

Questions lsquoHow urgent are each of the following environmental concerns in this countryrsquo lsquoWhichtwo of the above environmental issues has worried you personally the most in the last 12 monthslsquoWhich is the most urgent And which is the second most urgentrsquoSource Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2007



Table 2 Protect the environment versus economic growth (odds ratios)

Men 070Age (years) 0999Degree 113Professionals 149Income5$36400 (referent) 1$36400ndash77999 110$78000thorn 126

No religious denomination 144lsquoSpiritualrsquo 173Middle class (vs other classes) 114Capital city 108Values scale (1ndash3) 162Labor ID 203Green ID 2126No ID 142Coalition ID 1Nagelkerke R2 014N 1981 Who would protect the environment 775

Dependent variable protect the environmentfrac14 1 economic growthfrac14 0p 5005 p 5001 p 50001Source Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2007

Support bases of issue concerns

In order to examine the social and political background of support forenvironmental issues more rigorously several regression models were devel-oped (Tables 2ndash6) The first uses a broad question that contrasts support forenvironmental and economic values

Here are two statements people sometimes make when discussing theenvironment and economic growth Which of them comes closer to yourown point of view

Protecting the environment should be given priority even if it causes slowereconomic growth and some loss of jobs

Economic growth and creating jobs should be given top priority even if theenvironment suffers to some extent

Although middle-aged people were more pro-environmental in the bi-variate case (results not shown) age is not an important factor when otherbackground effects are controlled for at least on this measure of environmentalconcern Men are about 14 times less likely than women to support protectionfor the environment over economic growth (ie 1 7 070frac14 143) professionalsare around 50 more environmentally supportive than other occupations and

86 B Tranter


the non-religious are pro-environment to a greater extent than those withreligious affiliations Engaging in lsquoeastern spiritual practicesrsquo such as yoga orBuddhism also tends to be associated with environmental protection withspiritualists almost twice as likely to say they would protect the environmentover economic growth8 Not surprisingly postmaterialists exhibit pro-environmental sentiments as do those who identify as Labor or Green Infact party identification exhibits the strongest effects in this model

Three questions are examined to assess the social background of supportfor local national and global environmental issues (Table 3) Using orderedlogistic regression to analyse these Likert-type dependent variables the oddsratios for Labor identifiers increase in magnitude from local to national andglobal issues This may reflect the strong partisan divide over global issuessuch as climate change as shown below Social background effects aregenerally strongest for national and global issues (see R2) compared to localconcerns although the differences in the magnitude of the estimates acrossthe dependent variables are quite modest Income also plays a lesser roleand was not a significant predictor at the 95 level on the lsquoglobalrsquodependent variable while women tend to be more concerned than menabout all three types of environmental issues particularly global issues

Table 3 Willingness to pay extra tax to protect the local national and globalenvironment (odds ratios)

Local National Global

Men 082 082 074Age (years) 1006 1005 1000Degree 142 157 137Professional 136 134 126Income5$36400 (referent) 1 1 1$36400ndash77999 108 107 102$78000thorn 138 145 121

No religious denomination 104 120 117Spiritual 137 148 145Middle class 128 136 128Capital city 092 111 109Values scale (1ndash3) 113 127 120Labor ID 126 142 172Green ID 275 381 354No ID 104 110 125Coalition ID 1 1 1Nagelkerke R2 008 013 011N 1943 1951 1941 Who were lsquovery willingrsquo to pay 176 201 144

Dependent variable lsquoHow willing would you be to pay higher taxes in order to protect the qualityof the local environment (ie your neighbourhood) national environment (ie countrywide) global environment (ie worldwide)rsquop 5005 p 5001 p 50001Source Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2007



Alternatively effects for tertiary education income class values and Greenparty identification tend to be somewhat stronger for national compared tolocal or global issues

Leader influences on attitudes towards climate change

Two questions from the 2007 AES are particularly relevant for illustrating thestrong political divide over climate change in Australia In Table 4 AESrespondents were asked if they thought Australia should participate in theKyoto process9 approximately 66 responded affirmatively 8 were againstand the remaining quarter suggested lsquoit dependsrsquo When asked if they believed

Table 4 Global warming and Kyoto agreement (odds ratios)

Global warming Kyoto

Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2

Men 067 072 068 066Age (years) 0978 0978 1001 1005Degree 126 117 133 138Professional occupation 114 106 185 172City 107 095 102 087Income5$35000 1 1 1 1$35000ndash80000 144 135 172 143$80000thorn 108 101 100 076

No religious denomination 093 087 085 087No self-assessed classlocation (vs other classes)

097 088 088 070

NSW 057 058 039 040QLD 070 076 058 066Other states andterritories (referent)

1 1 1 1

Values scale (1ndash3) 145 140 084 064Trust in government 108 123 131 135Government performingwell in last 3 years

048 065 017 035

Labor ID 278 144 625 123Green ID 272 117 294 051No ID 162 119 181 071Coalition ID (referent) 1 1 1 1Coalition leader (Howard) ndash 095 ndash 086Labor leader (Rudd) ndash 109 ndash 125Greens leader (Brown) ndash 118 ndash 131Political knowledge (0ndash5 scale) 093 094 083 088Nagelkerke R2 023 027 026 038N 1075 1019 1080 1033

p 5005 p 5001 p 50001Source Australian Election Study 2007

88 B Tranter


global warming will pose a serious threat to their way of life in their lifetime(my emphasis) 52 agreed 22 disagreed and about one quarter claimed lsquoitdependsrsquo10 While these data were collected in 2007 and Australia is nowparticipating in the Kyoto process they inform the current debate over climatechange by illustrating the impact of political party identification and partyleaders on environmental issue concern in addition to social location effectsIn order to control statistically for differing views regarding the performanceof the previous conservative government and trust in government morebroadly two additional control variables were added to the regressionequation11 The introduction of these variables into the regression modelreduces the impact of party identification upon the dependent variables butstrong effects remain

As shown in Model 1 both global warming and the Kyoto protocol dividedsupport along partisan lines in 2007 with Labor supporters pro-Kyoto andcoalition supporters against These effects hold even after controlling for socialand political background and knowledge of politics12 Labor and Greenidentifiers were almost three times as likely as coalition supporters to believethat global warming will pose a serious threat in their own lifetime Partisandifferences for the Kyoto variable were even stronger for Labor supportersThese results hold after controlling for a range of social background effects andevaluations of the performance of the incumbent government suggesting theyare robust findings In Model 2 leader evaluation scales are introduced to theregression equation13 Interestingly partisan differences are rendered non-significant at the 95 level suggesting they are mediated through the leadervariables These results indicate that political leaders have a powerful influenceon environmental attitudes and at least in relation to climate change aninfluence more powerful than party identification itself

While party leaders are expected to exert influence upon their ownsupporters how do leader effects manifest across party lines Did JohnHoward or Kevin Rudd or indeed the Greens leader Senator Bob Brownalso influence supporters of other parties over global warming To examinethese effects the sample was split by party identification Given the reducedsub-samples the models were simplified to consist of the three leader scaleswith estimates controlling for age and sex (Table 5)14 It seems leaders not onlyinfluence their own partisans their influence is much broader For exampleviewing former Prime Minister John Howard in a positive light is associatednegatively on the issue of global warming and engagement in the Kyoto processfor both coalition and Labor supporters The scale for Labor leader KevinRudd shows a weaker effect however it is associated with support for theKyoto process among coalition identifiers and those not affiliated with anypolitical party The Greens leader scale is the most consistent predictor forboth dependent variables Controlling for age and sex positive evaluations ofBob Brown increase the odds ratios on the global warming-dependent variableacross all parties and the non-aligned and for all but Labor supporters on theKyoto variable



These are important findings as they suggest that political leaders exert aninfluence across the political spectrum Partisans may well follow the cuesoffered by their respective leaders particularly if they feel positively towardsthem but also react to the leaders of other parties when the political elite isdivided as is the case in Australia over global warming and engagement in theKyoto agreement These results nuance the findings of Sciarini et al (2007 p32) who noted that if lsquothe elite is divided and the campaign is moderatelyintense environmental support increases as a function of political awarenessamong left voters and decreases among moderate right votersrsquo In Australiathis lsquopolarising effectrsquo is mediated by the way partisans evaluate not only theirown party leader but leaders of other parties who adopt a strong stance for oragainst environmental issues

Addressing climate change support for renewable energy

While a majority of Australians agree that global warming will have an impactupon their lives how willing are they to act to address these concerns The finaldependent variable comprises an attempt to measure environmental behaviourby examining specific intentions to act to reduce the impact of global warminglsquoEnergy generated through renewable sources such as wind or solar power isclaimed to reduce global warming compared to non-renewable power sourcessuch as coal How much extra would you be prepared to pay on top of yourexisting energy bill for power generated from renewable sourcesrsquo Thefrequency responses indicate that 30 of Australians would not be willingto pay any more for renewable energy but 70 would Almost a quarter(235) would pay between 1 and 5 extra and slightly more (265)would pay 6ndash10 extra with the remained indicating they would pay more

Table 5 Interactions on global warming and Kyoto (OR)

Coalition Greens Labor No ID

Global warmingCoalition leader (Howard) 0901 0848 0912 1018Labor leader (Rudd) 1073 1056 1134 1104Greens leader (Brown) 1149 1813 1252 1220R2 012 036 017 019N 460 87 485 189

KyotoCoalition leader (Howard) 0812 1337 0756 0812Labor leader (Rudd) 1187 0770 1141 1326Greens leader (Brown) 1303 4893 1216 1346R2 024 066 016 024N 409 93 529 199

Estimates control for age and sex p 5005 p 5001 p 50001Source Australian Election Study 2007

90 B Tranter


than 10 extra In fact over 9 of the sample would pay 20 or more on topof their existing bill for energy produced through renewable sources

To explore the social and political background of responses to thisquestion ordered logistic regression analysis was employed in Table 6 Supportfor renewable energy is stronger among the tertiary educated professionals themiddle class and those holding postmaterial values The important differencewith this dependent variable is that age is also a factor with youngerAustralians much more likely to claim they would pay more tax for renewableenergy regardless of their income level or other social and politicalbackground factors Partisanship was again an important indicator withGreen identifiers exhibiting by far the strongest effects In the absence ofappropriate leader variables for the AuSSA we can only speculate that leadereffects may also be at work

Discussion

Environmental issues receive a high degree of support in Australia althoughthey vary considerably in terms of their relative urgency Climate change isclearly an important issue for many although it is not the most important issueaccording to the 2007 AuSSA15 The results presented here suggest thatAustralians view national issues as more important than local or global issues

Table 6 Would you pay more tax for energy produced through renewable sources(OR)


No religious denomination 118Spiritualist 121Middle class 166Capital city 108Values scale (1ndash3) 127Labor ID 128Green ID 332No ID 099Coalition ID 1Nagelkerke R2 013N 1905 Who would pay more for renewable energy 702

Dependent variable coding 1frac14 0 2frac14 1ndash5 3frac14 6ndash10 4frac14 11ndash15 5frac14 16ndash20 6frac14 20thornp 5005 p 50001Source Australian Survey of Social Attitudes 2007



In fact in 2007 far more Australians including those living in urban locationswere concerned more about the drought than any other issue These findingshave potential policy implications Given the level of public concern over thedrought there appears to be electoral support for changes to governmentdrought support programs such as the provision of income contingent loansand the form of welfare support delivered to farming families (see Chapmanet al 2006)

In general terms consistent predictors of environmental concern inAustralia include holding postmaterial values engaging in eastern spiritualpractices (perhaps reflecting alternative lifestyles and consumption practices)professional occupation and to an extent tertiary education Genderdifferences are also apparent with men less likely than women to favourenvironmental protection over economic growth to claim they would pay extratax to protect the environment or to believe global warming poses a seriousthreat to their way of life

In 2007 there were substantial partisan differences over environmentalissues Only 29 of National and 40 of Liberal identifiers agreed globalwarming was a serious threat to their way of life compared to 64 of Laborand 79 of Greens supporters Importantly to an even greater extent thanparty affiliation the way Australians evaluate their party leaders also appearsto influence their views about global warming Positive evaluations of formercoalition leader John Howard are associated with climate change scepticismwhile those who evaluate Labor or Greens leaders favourably are far morelikely to view global warming as a serious threat within their lifetime

Other researchers (eg Dunlap and McCright 2008 Hamilton in press)have demonstrated the importance of political partisanship and how it isassociated with divergent views on climate change My research takes this astage further drawing upon electoral survey data to examine the influence ofpolitical leaders upon their constituency Studies that consider the impact eliteshave upon mass opinion particularly the manner in which political leadersinfluence their partisan followers are insightful here (eg Campbell et al 1960Miller 1976 Zaller 1992) Leaders provide the cues for partisans to followThey simplify the political process for those who may not have sufficientinterest in politics to explore the issues for themselves

Australian political leaders are instrumental in shaping public views onenvironmental issues when divisions exist within the political elite Thisresearch replicates findings from the United States and elsewhere (Sciarini et al2007 Dunlap and McCright 2008) However the lsquodivided elite thesisrsquo ismodelled here using items that examine directly the influence party leadershave upon environmental issue support Importantly this approach shows thatparty leaders structure environmental concern in a way that is not confined totheir own supporters but cross-cuts party affiliations The way one evaluatesother party leaders also appears to influence onersquos views on environmentalissues at least when party leaders disagree as is the case over global warmingWhile the data were collected in 2007 these political divisions and leader effects

92 B Tranter


are relevant to more recent debates over climate change in Australia but alsoin other countries where elite divisions persist

What of future actions to address climate change Public support forrenewable energy is strongest among younger Australians even taking theirsocial and political backgrounds into account although more than a quartersay they would not pay extra for renewable energy If these data are tappingstrong age-based intentions that actually underpin demand for renewableenergy rather than mere attitudes there are potential long-term electoral andpolicy implications as support for such schemes should increase withgenerational replacement Nevertheless generational replacement alone isunlikely to occur quickly enough to address the emerging environmentalsocioeconomic and political problems associated with global warming Whiledivided political elites contribute to divisions in public opinion united elitesmay hold the key to action on critical global issues such as climate changeShifting public opinion on climatic change requires constructive and unifiedelite responses at the national level In the absence of agreement amongnational political leaders attempts to reach global consensus over climatechange action are unlikely to succeed

Notes

1 The White Paper specified a minimum commitment to reduce carbon emissions to5 below 2000 emission levels by 2020 (Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme 2008)

2 Labor does not control the Senate and did not receive the support of the Green andindependent senators who hold the balance of power

3 Deposed coalition leader Turnbull (2010) claimed in response to Abbottrsquos climatechange scheme lsquoIt is not possible to criticise the new Coalition policy on climatechange because it does not exist Mr Abbott apparently knows what he is againstbut not what he is forrsquo

4 The 12ndash14 February (2010) Newspoll had the coalition on 40 and Labor on 39of primary votes although technically these estimates are indistinguishable due tothe sampling error of 3 points On two party preferred estimates the coalitionstill lagged 47ndash53 because Greens preferences favour Labor

5 Value orientations were measured in the 2007 AuSSA using the following questionlsquoPeople sometimes talk about what the aims of this country should be for the nextten years Listed below are some of the goals which different people would give toppriority Please indicate which one of these you consider the most important Andwhich would be the next most important A Maintain order in the nation B Givepeople more say in important government decisions C Protect freedom of speechD Maintain a high rate of economic growthrsquo Those who chose options A and Dwere deemed lsquomaterialistsrsquo and options B and C as lsquopostmaterialistsrsquo All othercombinations were classified as lsquomixedrsquo A scale was constructed for regressionanalyses scored 1frac14materialists 2frac14mixed 3frac14 postmaterialists

6 Controlling for age and sex no significant interactions between education and partyidentification were found at the 95 level in these Australian data for either theglobal warming variable or Kyoto variable analysed in Tables 4 and 5

7 An additive scale (0ndash6) combines the correct answers to six quiz questions onknowledge of political facts and process included in the 2007 AES

8 The lsquospiritualrsquo measure was constructed from the following category lsquoHow often doyou personally do the following Engage in Eastern spiritualities (eg Buddhism



or yoga)rsquo Response categories at least once a week at least once a month severaltimes a year at least once a year never Those engaged were coded 1 and lsquoneverrsquocoded 0

9 lsquoBased on what you know do you think Australia should or should not participatein the Kyoto agreement to reduce global warmingrsquo (responses coded 1frac14 shouldparticipate 0frac14 should not participate with lsquodependsrsquo category omitted)

10 lsquoDo you think that global warming will pose a serious threat to your way of life inyour lifetimersquo (responses coded yes will pose a threatfrac14 1 no will not pose athreatfrac14 0 with lsquodependsrsquo category omitted)

11 These questions were lsquoIn general do you feel that people in government are toooften interested in looking after themselves or do you feel that they can be trusted todo the right thing nearly all of the timersquo (usually thorn sometimes look afterthemselvesfrac14 1 usually thorn sometimes do the right thingfrac14 0) lsquoNow thinking aboutthe performance of the government in Canberra in general how good or bad a jobdo you think the government in Canberra has done over the past three yearsrsquo(a very good thorn a good jobfrac14 1 a very bad thorn a bad jobfrac14 0)

12 When added to the models in Table 6 knowledge effects are negative andstatistically significant at the 95 level among coalition supporters and positive butnon-significant for Labor on both the global warming and Kyoto dependentvariables

13 The leadership scales are derived from the following questions lsquousing a scale from 0to 10 please show how much you like or dislike the party leaders Again if youdonrsquot know much about them you should give them a rating of 5rsquo (bold emphasis inoriginal wording)

14 Estimates for Green partisans are based on small sub-samples and potentiallyunreliable but are presented for illustrative purposes

15 McAllisterrsquos (2008) ANU Poll conducted in October 2008 also found that 73 ofAustralians saw the drought as a lsquovery seriousrsquo issue compared to 69 for thedegradation of lakes and 56 for global warming

References

Bartels L 1996 Uninformed votes information effects in presidential electionsAmerican Journal of Political Science 40 194ndash230

Bean C 1996 Partisanship and electoral behaviour in comparative perspective In MSims ed The paradox of parties Sydney Allen and Unwin 135ndash155

Bean C 1997 Parties and elections In B Galligan I McAllister and J Ravenhilleds New Developments in Australian Politics South Melbourne Macmillan 102ndash124

Bean C McAllister I and Warhurst J 1990 The greening of Australian politics the1990 federal election Melbourne Longman Chesire

Bean C et al 2005 Australian election study 2004 userrsquos guide for the machine-readable data file (ASSDA Study 1079) Canberra Australian National University


Campbell A et al 1960 The American voter New York Wiley and SonsChapman B Botterill L and Egan M 2006 Income-contingent loans for drought

relief Farm Policy Journal 3 (2) 59ndash67Crook S and Pakulski J 1995 Shades of green public opinion on environmental

issues in Australia Australian Journal of Political Science 30 39ndash55Curtis L 2010 Abbott selling climate change plan ndash AM [online] Available from http

wwwabcnetauamcontent2010s2808547htm [Accessed 17 February 2010]Dalton R 1996 Citizen politics public opinion and political parties in advanced

industrial democracies 2nd ed Chatham NJ Chatham House Publishers

94 B Tranter


Dalton R Flanagan S and Beck P 1984 Electoral change in advanced industrialdemocracies Princeton NJ Princeton University Press

Dunlap RE and McCright AM 2008 A widening gap republican and democraticviews on climate change Environment 50 (5) 26ndash35

Gilens M and Murakawa N 2002 Elite cues and political decision making In MDelli-Carpini L Huddy and R Shapiro eds Political decision-making deliberationand participation Oxford JAI

Hamilton LC 2008 Who cares about polar regions Results from a survey of USpublic opinion Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research 40 (4) 671ndash678

Hamilton LC in press Education politics and opinions about climate changeevidence for interaction effects Climatic Change

Hamilton LC and Keim BD 2009 Regional variation in perceptions about climatechange International Journal of Climatology 29 (15) 2348ndash2352

Hokby S and Soderqvist T 2003 Elasticities of demand and willingness to pay forenvironmental services in Sweden Environmental and Resource Economics 26 (3)361ndash383

Inglehart R 1990 Values ideology and cognitive mobilisation in new socialmovements In R Dalton and M Kuechler eds Challenging the political orderCambridge Polity Press 43ndash66

Inglehart R 1997 Modernization and postmodernization cultural economic andpolitical change in 43 societies Princeton NJ Princeton University Press

Israel D 2004 International support for environmental protection Environment andDevelopment Economics 9 (6) 757ndash780

Israel D and Levinson A 2004 Willingness to pay for environmental quality testableempirical implications of the growth and environment literature Contributions toEconomic Analysis amp Policy 3 (1) 31

Ivanova G and Tranter B 2008 Paying for environmental protection in crossnational perspective Australian Journal of Political Science 43 (2) 169ndash188

Kaza S and Kraft K 2000 Dharma rain sources of Buddhist environmentalismBoston MA Shambala

Kitschelt H 1990 New social movements and the decline of party organisation In RDalton and M Kuechler eds Challenging the political order new social and politicalmovements in Western Democracies New York Oxford University Press 179ndash208

Kriesi H-P 1989 New social movements and the new class in the NetherlandsAmerican Journal of Sociology 94 (5) 1078ndash1116

McAllister I 2008 Public opinion towards the environment ANU poll [online]Canberra Australian National University httpwwwanueduauanupollimagesuploadsANUpoll_report3_october2008pdf [Accessed 7 February 2010]

McAllister I and Studlar D 1999 Green versus brown explaining environmentalcommitment in Australia Social Science Quarterly 80 (4) 775ndash792

Miller W 1976 The cross-national use of party identification as a stimulus to politicalinquiry In I Budge I Crewe and D Farlie eds Party identification and beyondLondon Wiley and Sons 21ndash31

Muller-Rommel F 1990 New political movements and lsquonew politicsrsquo parties inWestern Europe In R Dalton and M Kuechler eds Challenging the politicalorder new social and political movements in Western Democracies New YorkOxford University Press 209ndash231

Pakulski J and Tranter B 2004 Environmentalism and social differentiation a paperin memory of Steve Crook Journal of Sociology 40 (3) 220ndash259

Pakulski J Tranter B and Crook S 1998 Dynamics of environmental issues inAustralia concerns clusters and carriers Australian Journal of Political Science 33(2) 235ndash253

Papadakis E 1993 Politics and the environment the Australian experience SydneyAllen and Unwin



Phillips T Mitchell D Tranter B Clark J and Reed K 2008 The Australiansurvey of social attitudes 2007 [computer file] Canberra Australian Social ScienceData Archive The Australian National University

Pietsch J and McAllister I 2010 lsquoA diabolical challengersquo public opinion and climatechange policy in Australia Environmental Politics 19 (2) 217ndash236

Queen C 2000 Engaged Buddhism in the West Boston MA WisdomRootes C 1995 A new class The higher educated and the new politics In L Maheu

ed Social movements and social classes the future of collective action London Sage220ndash235

Rootes C 1999 The transformation of environmental activism activists organisationsand policy-making Innovation The European Journal of Social Sciences 12 (2)155ndash173

Rootes C 2004 Environmental movements In D Snow S Soule and H Kriesi edsThe Blackwell companion to social movementsMalden MA Blackwell

Rootes C 2008 The first climate change election The Australian general election of24 November 2007 Environmental Politics 17 (3) 473ndash480

Sciarini P Bornstein N and Lanz B 2007 The determinants of voting choices onenvironmental issues a two-level analysis In C de Vreese ed The dynamics ofreferendum campaigns an international perspective New York Palgrave Macmillan

Stumborg B Baerenklau K and Bishop R 2001 Non-point source pollution andpresent values a contingent valuation of Lake Mendota Review of AgriculturalEconomics 23 (1) 120ndash132

Tranter B 1996 The social bases of environmentalism in Australia Australian andNew Zealand Journal of Sociology 32 (2) 61ndash84

Tranter B 1997 Environmentalism and education in Australia Environmental Politics6 (2) 123ndash143

Tranter B 1999 Environmentalism in Australia elites and the public Journal ofSociology 35 (3) 331ndash350

Tranter B 2007 Political knowledge and its partisan consequences Australian Journalof Political Science 42 (1) 73ndash88

Tranter B 2010 Environmental activists and non-active environmentalists inAustralia Environmental Politics 19 (3) 413ndash429

Tranter B and Western M 2003 Postmaterial values and age the case of AustraliaAustralian Journal of Political Science 38(2) 239ndash257

Turnbull M 2010 Abbottrsquos climate change policy is bullshit Sydney Morning Herald[online] Environmental resource page Available from httpwwwsmhcomauopinionpoliticsabbotts-climate-change-policy-is-bullshitndash20091207-kdmbhtml[Accessed 1722010]

Witzke H and Urfei P 2001 Willingness to pay for environmental protection inGermany coping with the regional dimension Regional Studies 35 (3) 207ndash214

Zaller J 1992 The nature and origins of mass opinion New York CambridgeUniversity Press

Zelezny L Poh-Pheng C and Aldrich C 2000 New ways of thinking aboutenvironmentalism elaborating on gender differences in environmentalism Journalof Social Issues 56 (3) 443ndash457

96 B Tranter


Political divisions over climate change and environmental issues in

Australia

Bruce Tranter

School of Sociology and Social Work University of Tasmania Hobart Australia

Willingness to pay to address environmental problems is influenced bypartisanship in Australia Ceteris paribus the support base of environ-mental concerns is generally much stronger among Labor and Greensupporters postmaterialists those who engage in eastern spiritual practicesand professionals Women are more likely than men to favour environ-mental protection over economic growth to pay extra tax to protect theenvironment and to believe global warming will pose a serious threatduring their lifetime Support for renewable energy is stronger amongyounger Australians suggesting demand may increase with generationalreplacement Political leaders influence public concerns over globalwarming and other environmental issues across the partisan divide yetwhile political elites remain divided over the implications of climaticchange the shift in public opinion and behaviour necessary to avert suchproblems is unlikely to occur

Keywords Green environmental movement political leaders climatechange global warming

Introduction

Global warming has attracted considerable international attention in recentyears with governments in many countries beginning to at least engage indialogue over the consequences of anthropocentric climate change Australiagained the reputation of a climate change laggard under Prime Minister JohnHowardrsquos (1996ndash2007) lengthy conservative reign (Rootes 2008) Immediatelyfollowing the election of the Rudd Labor Government in November 2007Australia announced its ratification of the Kyoto protocol at the UnitedNations Climate Change Conference in Bali and supported a 2050 target ofreducing greenhouse gas emissions by 60 of 2000 levels The years that

Email brucetranterutaseduau

Environmental PoliticsVol 20 No 1 February 2011 78ndash96

ISSN 0964-4016 printISSN 1743-8934 online

2011 Taylor amp Francis

DOI 101080096440162011538167

httpwwwinformaworldcom














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Documents

Political divisions over climate change and environmental issues in Australia