Addis Ababa University College of Social Sciences

Department of PSIR MA Program in IR and Diplomacy

Course: Ethiopia's Foreign policy and the Horn of Africa

Presentation on :Eritrea's Regional Policy of Destabilization and the Fluidity of Power

Balance in the Greater Horn of Africa

By : G/egziabher Haftu IDNO GSR/1608/08 Tadyos Getahun IDNO GSR 1627/08

Contents 1. Introduction -General background of the horn of Africa 2 Eritrea’s regional policy of destabilization 3. Fluidity of power balance in the greater horn of Africa 4. Conclusion

1. Introduction General background about the Greater Horn of Africa The Horn of Africa countries are Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia

Djibouti, Sudan, and South Sudan Uganda and Kenya are also included to be parts of the Horn of

Africa making the greater horn of Africa For the purpose of this study we have focused on the greater horn

of Africa For our paper we used the term horn of Africa to refer the greater

horn of Africa The Horn of Africa is the most security complex region Conflicts are persistent and prevalent in terms of :- - Civil wars , inter-state conflicts

The greater horn of Africa Identity politics and state formation are the characteristic features of the conflicts

The horn of Africa is the most contentious sub region due to many reason , among them :-

The strategic importance of the region The colonial boundary Self determination/secession claims Sources of conflicts and instabilities could be classified in to :-1. Internal(political violence , civil wars , terrorisms , state failure etc ) 2. External factors ( external powers involvement for their national

interests). Super powers’ competition –USA& USSR , today Arabs such as Iran Saudi Arabia & non Arabs ( Turkey vs Israel ,USA, China).

External involvement contributing to destabilization through

Militarizing the sub –region Through siding /supporting terrorists and insurgents

The horn of Africa has received more attention of the international communities after :-1. 9/11 terrorist attack 2, the development of human security as part of human development goals

As a result the regional community such as AU has been engaged in securing the horn of Africa adopting the principle of intervention to protect human security The western powers were facilitating the peace process in the horn of Africa through peace agreements such as :-1. Algiers peace agreement (between Ethiopia and Eritrea)2. The Somalia reconciliation conference (in Somalia )3. The comprehensive peace agreement( in Sudan ) were

signed ,but the success remained limited

The problems caused due to the strategic nature of the sub –region such as piracy off Somalia coast are among the reasons for the destabilization of the region.The foreign policy of states mainly Eritrea is also contributing

for the destabilization of the sub region.

2. Eritrea’s Regional policy of destabilization in the greater horn of Africa Mutual intervention The politics of destabilization is a long stayed problem in the horn of Africa.Ethiopia , Somalia , Sudan ,Eritrea were supporting the rebel groups against each other at different times

Currently the Eritrean government is engaged in the regional destabilization though supporting the rebel groups of the horn states mainly Ethiopia based on the principle of the enemy of my enemy is my friend

It is supporting armed groups in different countries with training , intelligence service and logistics in the greater horn of Africa in Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan And Uganda The Eritrean government has no friendly relation with almost all the horn states This could be understood from the wars and border conflicts it waged with Ethiopia, Sudan and Djibouti It is pursuing the destabilization of the sub region as its prior agenda as result of its isolation from the regional and international communities

the UN Security Council imposed sanction on Eritrea in 2011 following its refusal to with draw its army from Djibouti the IGAD also laid sanction and suspended its membership

Eritrea's foreign policy is mainly concentrated in disturbing its enemy states particularity Ethiopia

It has a behavior of conducting its FP in the contrary to its enemies in the issues of regional stability irrespective of its consequences for the region

with the aim of creating political and strategic discomfort for its adversaries For e.g. as a result of Ethiopia's support for the TFG of Somalia, it

supported for the Union of Islamic court and Al -shabab Al-mujahedeen It is undertaking its regional destabilization policy through supporting the

Ethiopian rebel groups such as Oromo Liberation Front and Ogaden National Liberation front

Eritrean government has been engaged in destabilizing the horn of Africa with the intention of creating terror for the neighboring countries

For example the UN security council has imposed sanction against Eritrea for its support to Al-Shabab in Somalia

and its attempt to attack the annual African summit in Addis Ababa in 2011.

It follows the foreign policy of spoiling the image of the neighboring countries mainly Ethiopia as it is isolated from the smooth relationship and interaction with the horn states E.g. Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front’s attack held on five European tourists in Ethiopia in 2012 was supported by Eritrean government To erode the image of Ethiopia as a tourism site.

its decision of with drawing the UNMEE shows its unwillingness to be guided by UN protocols for peace

To wards its solutions How it could be solved ?

It is difficult to solve the problem and to control it through institutional means

Because Eritrea is already isolated from the international and regional communities and institutions such as AU , IGAD and UN 1. Normalization of Ethio –Eritrean relations Since, the hostility of the two countries has a spillover effect on the instability of the regionEritrean government is supporting, different insurgent groups to undermine the Ethiopian interest in different countries contributing for the instability of the region.For e.g. it Is supporting the rebel groups in Djibouti to challenge the Ethiopia's access and peaceful passage to the Djibouti port.

Its support to Al-Shabab following Eth’s support to TFG

2. Increasing the powers of the horn states :To secure their borders –b/c state failures are used as source of posing threats to the region.3. Emergence of regional powers is important but the balance of power is fluid in the HOA. 3. Fluidity of power balance in the greater horn of Africa 1.Internal factors –Emanate from domestic insecurity.(ex. civil wars , self –determinations /secession claims , political violence , terrorism etc.) contributed more for the instability of the region. Since local , national and regional issues including security issues are interdependent.This shows power is contested among different groups in the horn states 2.The absence of the sub regional hegemonic power. This is the major problem

However, Ethiopia is attempting to play the role of regional power in the sub-region to maintain peace and stability,

there are no other powers who can balance the role of Ethiopia .3. Absence of democratization and constitutionalismContributing for internal instability and hindering regional cooperation –eroding state capacities for domestic and sub regional stabilities. Democratization and constitutionalism could be solution - b/c most of the sources of instabilities and conflicts are violence and

insurgencies as a result of struggle for power among different groups

- b/c it helps to- ensure regional peace and stability -peaceful transfer of power, -enhance dialogue to solve common problems

The fluidity of power balance is contributing for the instability of the sub region. unlike Eth’s role there is no hegemonic power to solve the problem even though the states have varied relative powers e.g. Eth in military power , Kenya economic power , Sudan territorial power and energy .but still there is fluidity of power. Therefore Power balance is very important.

4.The absence of strong sub regional institutions with delegated power is also a problem in the sub region. Even though IGAD has been engaged in the regional issues , but not successful due to: Lack of active participation and poor economy of members Weak statehood /less power/capability of states to deal about regional issuesLack of budget ( dependent on donors )Therefore (A).Increasing the power and capability of the states engaged in peace and stability of the sub region such as Ethiopia is very important to solve the problem of peace and stability in sub region.

(B). Helping states to form stable governments and fighting terrorism.

(C). Support of the states of the sub-region as well as the international communities including the powerful countries like US and the EU is important.(including support to the regional powers).

To fight – terrorism

- Piracy

civil wars/inter-state conflicts

Cooperation is important for the stability of the sub region

.

The problem of peace and instability could be settled whenever states emphasis on regional issue through their foreign policies. Although the Eritrean is pursuing its foreign policy to the contrary

Therefore the fluidity of the balance of power in the horn of Africa is hindering the peace and stability of the sub region.

Even though Ethiopia is engaged in securing and stabilizing the horn through peace keeping, peacemaking, mediation and negotiation in collaboration with the African Union and IGAD,

the absence of another sub regional power which can facilitate and ensure the peace and stability of the Horn is a visible problem

This results in the absence of peace and stability in the horn of Africa opening a space for the destabilizing role of Eritrea aliening itself with the insurgents and terrorists.

4. Conclusion Horn of Africa *fragility of the state *Authoritative nature of the government *secessionist movement( Ethnic politics & colonial boundary) * Involvement of external powers , are factors for the political instability and security complex of the sub region*For the problem to be solved states should do a lot. For instance; solving their domestic problems, promoting the emergency of sub regional powers, adopting democratization and cooperation ,focusing on regional stability and developing a culture of multilateral relation to ensure collective security of the Horn. Because solving the internal problems and enhancing the stability of the states of the sub region can reduce the external factors. All these can be done through the FP of the horn states.

*The culture of cooperation and multilateral relation should develop in order to create a sub-regional security arrangement in addition to the balance of power to curtail the destabilizing role of the different groups and states such as Eritrea and threats coming from outside.

Thank You