PROFESSIONALIZATION AND UNIONIZATION OF POLICE: A DELPHI FORECAST ON POLICE VALUES

TERRY L. COOPER

Center for Urban Affairs University of Southern Californu

Los Angeles, California

ABSTRACT

The Delphi Forecasting technique was utilized to assess the general direction and magnitude of broad future trends in the occupationally-related values of police officers. Two panels of experts were established and utilized in the Delphi Process: one composed of veteran police officers and the other consisting of law enforcement educators, top echelon police administrators, attorneys, and social ethicists.

Two major trends emerged rn the course of the study: a movement toward professionalization and a movement toward unionization. These two movements were found to embody generally conflicting sets of occupataonally-related values.

The increasing emphasis of police chiefs and their administrators on managerial efficiency uus identified as the critical factor influencing the future of these trends.

INTRODUCTION

This study of police values, as they may evolve during the next three decades, grows out of a conviction that the police, as an occupational group, represent a critical locus of concentrated state power which demands careful scrutiny by members of the society in which they are authorized to wield that power. Westley has reminded us that the police “maintain a monopoly on the legitimate means of violence” (Westley, 1970:4). Bittner describes the police as “nothing else than a mechanism for the distribution of situationally justified force in society” (Bittner, 1970:39).

This fundamental characteristic of the police role coupled with the lack of formal control of police behavior, and the resulting latrtude of discretion exercised by police in the

19

20 ! LKKI L. (:OOPEX

pertormance of their tasks, suggest the tenuous and yet extremely important function of those informal behavioral influences known as “values” (Saunders, 197O:VII; The Presidents Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice, 1967:16-15, Bittner, 1970:38). If values are “a type of belief. centrally located within one’s total belief system, about how one ought or ought not to behave. . .” (Rokeach, 1970:124), thencritical insight may be gained concerning the future prospects for the socially justified application ot policy power by examining the dominant trends in the occupational values of the police.

Berkley, Banton, and Pfiffner have stressed the importance ot the congruence of police values with those of the larger society if police power is to be effectively channeled toward those aims and goals which are deemed to be socially desirable (Berkley, 1969:29; Banton, 1964: 146; Pfiffner, 1967). The problem posed for a democratic society by the development of police in-group values is that they threaten to sever what may be the only effective social control over those who are vested with the authority to exercise broad powers against members of the society. The informal control represented by shared social values stands in danger of being contravened by the divergent values of the police subgroup.

Westley has concluded that these SUbCUltUEil values most significantly control or regulate police behavior with respect to “problematic areas of social interaction,” and tend to motivate police to use their power to gain and protect their own ends as a group (Westley, 1970:118). Banton warns that “if a police organization encourages the development of ingroup solidarity among its officers, it is likely to remove them from the informal control ot community expectations and to reduce their moral authority” (Banton, 1964:150-151).

The intention of this study is toexplore the direction in which thesecritically important occupational values are moving, with a view toward the possibilities for intervention to shape and direct their evolution during the decades ahead. An attempt has been made to identify trends in police values which may be long-term in duration and pervasive in scope.

METHODOLOGY AND DESIGK

The Delphi method is a quasi-empirical forecasting technique which has been developed at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica, California during the last twenty years. Its initial applications involved military and technological forecasts (Gordon and Helmer, 1964; Brown, 1968:9-12), but more recently it has been utilized in corporate policy planning and goal determination (Dalkey, 1968; Chambers, Mullich, and Goodman, 1971; North and Pyke, 1969), and social forecasting(Brown, 1968:lO; Huckfeldt, 1972; Dalkeyand Rourke, 1971; Dalkey, Lewis and Snyder, 1970).

The most ambitious Delphi application is presently underway in Japan (Japan Techno- Economics Society, 1972). The science and technology agency of the government of Japan has been conducting a Delphi study since 1969 involving a national panel of 4,OOOexperts in the field of science and technology in an attempt to assess the future of 620 developmental subjects between 1969 and the year 2000. This project is one of the major components of the national long-range planning process.

The basic assumption underlying the Delphi method is that, with respect to matters about which no one can be certain, such as future events, one means of arriving at working conclusions is through the use of expert judgment. “Experts” are individuals whose experience, knowledge, or previous record of accurate judgmen t, suggests an intuitive grasp of how things happen and where things are going in a particular field. This intuitive ability to project decisions on the basis of both knowledge andexperience is an expertise which can

be effectively brought to bear on questions concerning the future. The major components of the method are as follows:

1. Establishing a panel of experts. The principle involved here is that “n heads are better than one” (Dalkey, 1969:6-14). Empirical testing has demonstrated that the utilization of expert judgmentismoreaccurate when the consensus of a group of experts is obtained. At least forty participants seem to be necessar) in order to generate stable statistics. 2. Eizczting judgments from each member of the panel without face to face inteructzon. The researchers at Rand Corporation have demonstrated that judgments reached after or through discussion tend to be lessaccurate than those achieved through anonymous input by individuals. The biasing effect of personalities is the crucial factor here (Dalkey, 1969:21-24). 3. Controlled anonymous feedback to the panelists. Members of the panel of experts receive a summarization of the responses of all participants, usually in a statistical form which indicates the central tendency of the group and the range of responses. All feedback is anonymous; no participant’s particular responses are identified by name. The importance of feedback is not to give information as to who responded how, but rather how the group responded as a whole. This allows each participant to compare his own judgments with those of the other panelists. 4. Iteration of feedback and response. The process of eliciting responses and reporting controlled feedback to the panelists is repeated several times. Llsually two to four rounds of response, feedback, reconsideration of response, and re-response are involved in a Delphi forecast. This reiterative process has proven to be an effective means of refining the consensus of the group (as expressed by the median) toward greater accuracy (Dalkey, 1969:35-39).

These basic components of the Delphi process have undergone a considerable amount of empirical testing which has validated their general effectiveness as a means of obtaining judgments about the future.

Two panels were determined to be desirable in order to assess the future of police values.

Panel A

Panel A conszsted oj academicians and high echelon police officials distributed among the four major geographic regions of the nation. The majority of the panelists were persons involved in law enforcement education. Social ethicists, attorneys, and police officials were also included in lesser numbers.

The key consideration in the composition of this panel was the inclusion of persons who had probably developed some expertise in making judgments about the future of the police service, and/or the value trends of the society in which police function.

The panel was established by compiling an initial list of 122 persons fitting the major categories indicated above, mailing letters of invitation explaining the project, and enclosing the initial set of questions for their responses. Within one week to ten days every person on the list who could be reached was contacted by telephone for the purpose of answering questions about the project and the process involved.

22 I.ERRY L. COOPER

TABLE 1

COMPOSITION OF PANEL A

Classification Number

By profession: Law enforcement educators 12 Police administrators 7 Attorneys 4 Social ethicists 1

Total so

By region: East 16 Midwest 16 South 12 West 16 -

Total 60

Note: Xwelve person3 paruclpated I” subxquem rounda who did not

respond to the rmual quesuons.

The Process

Panel A was utilized to generate the list of issues and propositions to be considered by both panels. Thus the initial round for Panel A consisted of three open-ended questions intended to generate a rich data base which could be compiled and restructured into a series of propositions about the immediate past and the distant future for reiteration in two successive rounds with panel A.

The questions were as follows.

1. What have been the significant trends in the changing attitudes and values of police officers concerning their professional role and the institutions within which they function during the last ten years?

2. During the next thirty years, do you expect these trends to continue in the same directions and at the same rates, or do you anticipate significant changes? Please explain.

3. Do you expect any new trends in values and attitudes to emerge during the next thirty years? Please explain.

The desire to press the forecast as far as possible into the future suggested the thirty-year time span which is quite commonly utilized in long range future studies. A time increment ot this magnitude requires conjecture about what can be expected of a new generation of actors.

The intention of the present study was to generate exploratory forecasts dealing with major “ground swell” value trends which are generally relevant to the police nationwide (not isolated to particular departments, regions, or groups) and which extend to the very limits of one’s ability to rationally conjecture about the future.

Response to these questions was extraordinarily full. The forty-eight responses range

Pt&~sionahration and L’nwrization of Police: .4 Drlphi Forecast on IWtr~ \‘alues 2:;

horn one-half page to seven pages in length, the typical response being two 10 three pages of typed copy. In compiling these data an attempt was made to identify representative statements which dealt with recurring themes and issues. As much as possible of the language of the original statements was retained, changes being made only forclarification or reduction of the length of sentences which seemed excessively wordy. In a number of instances multidimensional statements were left intact, since the context indicated that the crucial point being made by the respondent necessitated such complexity. It was assumed that positive responses to multidimensional statements would indicate agreement with all assertions involved. On the other hand, negative responses to such statements might indicate disagreement with all or only one of the assertions, thus making interpretations more difficult and quite limited.

The initial responses of Panel A were finally reduced to 164 propositions concerning past and future trends which were divided into genera! categories as follows:

Trends of the Last Ten l’ears

1 Components of Professionalism II Motivating Factors In The Movement

Toward Professionalism III Past Trends in Education IV Past Trends In Role Perceptions and Functions V Past Trends In Attitude Toward Roies

As Perceived VI Past Trends Related To Society and Social

Institutions VII Past Trends Related To Law Enforcement

Institutions and Organizations

ilio. of Items

15

7 15 18

8

12

13

Conttnuing Trends During The Next Thirty Years Alternattve Futures and Scenarios

VIII Set. No. l-Overall Social Context IX Set. No. 2-Alternative Police Roles In

The Society of the Future X Scenarios

XI Future Trends Related To Professionalism XII Future Trends Related To Education and

Training XIII Future Trends Related To Role Perceptions

and Functions XIV Future Trends Related To Society and

Social Institutions XV Future Trends Related To Police Institutions and

Organizations

New Trends During the Next Thirty Years

XVI (Uncategorized)

3

3 2 6

6

15

9

10

22

In the second round these propositions were submitted to Panel A for evaluation and return. Likert scales were utilized for responses. These were four- and five-point scales

indicating agreement-disagreement, no significance-high significance, or improbable-probable, as seemed appropriate in each of the categories mentioned above.

From the second round responses the median scores and percentage breakdowns were computed and fed back to panel A for reconsideration and a final response.

In the third round eight additional uncategorizeditems were included for consideration. These were propositions generated by written comments during round two or added by the writer in order to expand consideration of particular subject areas.

Panel B

Panel B consisted of fifty-two workmg police officers. A group of officers who were enrolled in an educational program at the Delinquency Control Institute at the University of Southern California were selected for their availability and the fact that, as a group, they were in mid-career with considerable experience, but with a substantial portion of their careers still ahead.

The primary considerations in the composition of this panel were the inclusion of persons who were actively involved in police work, and who were in a career position that would provide a base of past experience, but which would also be conducive to thinking about the future of police work as well. Neither officers in their first year or two of police work, nor officers approaching retirement would satisfy these requirements.

Consideration was given to the problems of utilizing a group, whose members were not individually selected according to predetermined criteria as was done with Panel A. Using such a group could introduce a bias into the study as the result of self-selection for participation in an educational program. However, consultation with the director of the program indicated that very little self-selection was actually involved since most of the officers were selected by their departments for reasons that were generally the same as the criteria established for Panel B in this study. That is, officers who had accumulated several years of experience but still had the majority of their service time ahead, were typically sent to this program for in-service training by departments at no cost to themselves and without loss of regular salary.

Also, personal information elicited during the Delphi process with Panel B, together with that retrieved from application forms, did not indicate reasons for believing that this group embodied a “pro-educational” bias in their history.’

With these considerations in mind it was decided to utilize the group in question since, as a group, they satisfied the primary criterion of being generally in a mid-career position.

The Instrument generated by Panel A was utilized with Panel B, including the eight additional items (total = 172 items). Two rounds of responses, with feedback between rounds, were completed in two one-and-one-half hour sessions with the class of police officers previously mentioned. The same instructions were given orally to Panel B as had been given in written form, and in some cases by telephone, to Panel A.

Sample Sire

The size of a Delphi sample is not to be compared with that of a public opinion poll. Since the Delphi process involves a designed sample of persons who are presumed to have particular knowledge and/or experience in the field under investigation, rather than a random sample, it is assumed that a relatively small number of individuals will represent the considered knowledge of a very wide range of inputs from other individuals. Ll’hen one

TABLE 2

COMPOSITION OF P.4KEL B

Classification Number

By police rank: Patrolman Sergeant Detective Lieutenant Captain Others*

Total

_

1; 13 6 1

16 - 52

consults an “expert,” one is eliciting information which has been accumulated from a variety of sources and evaluated over time.

Consequently the total sample of approximately one hundred individuals involved in the present study represents an extremely rich bank of experience and knowledge. In this case the target sample size of forty to sixty individuals, which was achieved and maintained through the course of the study, was deemed to be quite adequate.

ANALYSIS OF THE DATA

Since this study is exploratory in nature and represents an attempt to identify major “ground swell” trends, the data analysis has not involved highly complicated statistical operations which might lead to overinterpretation of the data. The concern has been primarily directed toward a coarse-grained logical analysis that will identify trends and relationships which are all but unmistakable in the judgment of the panelists.

Consequently, the analysis, to this point, has involved the following:

1. Computation of median scores and percentages of responses for each score.

2. 3. 4. 5.

6.

7.

Totaling of scores at the end of the scale in which the median scores lies. Establishment of an arbitrary level of significance of 65% for these totals. Identification of items receiving significant levels of responses. Identification and inferential interpretation of relationships among those items receiving significant responses. Identification and interpretation of areas of convergence or divergence between the two panels. Assumption that the strongest consensus judgments are those concurred with by both panels.

Response statistics for both panels are as follows:

Panel A Round 1

Total number of responses to the initial question 48

26 IkHKV L. COOPER

Round 2 Total questionnaires returned Average number of responses to each item Range of number of responses to each item

Round 3 Total questionnaires returned Average number of responses to each item Range of number of responses to each item

50 48.7

45-50

47 46.4

43-47

Panel B Round I

Panel B was not asked to respond to the initial questions. Round 2

Total questionnaires returned 52 Average number of responses to each item 50.2 Range of number of responses to each item 44-52

Round 3 Total questionnaires returned 49 Average number of responses to each item 47.7 Range of number of responses to each item 43-49

Items for which the median response and the interquartile range were identical values were deemed to represent such substantial consensus that further iteration would be of no significant importance, since minimal change could be expected. For instance, if the median response to an item were “3” and the interquartile range also fell entirely with the responses indicating “3,” that item was excluded from further evaluation and response in the following round. In such cases a C, indicating consensus, was placed in the space on the questionnaire provided for the participant’s response. Participants were instructed that no further response would be necessary for items which were designated in this way.

The number of items meeting these conditions, indicating rather substantial consensus, provides some indication of the level of general agreement within each panel.

Items Achieving Substantial Consensus (Median = Interquartile Range)

Panel d Round Number of Items

2 36

3 53

Total 89

Percentage of total items 52%

Panel B Round Number of Items

2 40

3 70

Total IlO

Percentage of total items 64%

Thus, it is possible to conclude that a high level of consensus was established with

Prolesstonalization and L’nionization of Police: A Delphi Forecast on Police \‘alues 27

respect to more than half of the total of 172 items within each panel. Panel B evidences considerably greater consensus than panel A. Also, it is quite clear that the iterative process did, in fact contribute to the development of consensus.

THE MAJOR TRENDS: PROFESSIONALIZATION AND UNIONIZATION

Two major movements among police officers, professionalization and unionization, emerge from the data as dominant and significant trends of the past which are expected to continue during the next thirty years. Thirty-nine of the 172 itemsgenerated by the primary panel, and evaluated by both panels, deal directly and explicitly with these movements-thirty with professionalization, eight with unionization, and one with the relationship of the two movements.

However, an additional fifty-four items are implicitly, but nevertheless clearly, related to these movements and provide the basis for amplification and interpretation of these major trends among police officers. These secondary items may be conveniently grouped according to four major categories.

1. Education 18 2. Attitudes Toward Society 8 3. The Police Hierarchy 8 4. Police Roles 20 Total 54

Since ninety-three items in the study deal directly or indirectly with these two movements, it will not be possible to discuss each of these itemsand their interrelationships as has been done in the full report on the project. Consequently, a summary of what is indicated by these data, along with representative items from the study will be presented here. It should be clearly understood that the items presented below are intended only to suggest the characteristics of the complete data and are not sufficient in and of themselves to lully demonstrate the case for the conclusions drawn herein.

Profess2onalzzation

On the one hand police officers have become increasingly concerned about their social status and their public image, and realizing the importance of public support for effective law enforcement, have responded by attempting to become more “professional.” Although several components of professionalization were identified as significant, education clearly appears to be the single most significant consideration. A few of the items dealing with this general area are as follows:

Highly significant components of professionalism

A B (W indicating high

significance) A. Continuing education following entry

into the field. B. Establishment of minimum standards

of education and training.

89% 89%

81% 92%

28 1 LHRY L. COOPER

C. Educational emphasis on the criminal justice system. 66% 79%

D. Educational emphasis on the behavioral and social sciences. 73% 67%

Highly signiftcant motwatzonal elements underiylng projesszonalizatzon

A B (72 of agreement)

A. Concern for improved image in the eyes of the public.

B. Desire for occupational status in society.

Importance of public support

83% 92% 77% 92%

(7~ of agreement)

The importance ot public support for effective law enforcement has been increasingly recognized during the last ten years. 96% 98%

On the other hand, top echelon police administrators, epitomized by the chiefs, have been moving in the direction of greater efficiency in the functioning of their departments. .I‘his seems to have been expressed through the tendency to adopt certain managerial techniques and models from business and industry:

.A B (7% of agreement)

A. Chiefs have been adopting a fairly traditional managerial perspective (ca. 1935-65) optimizing for efficiency and cost-effective resource allocation models.

B. Greater emphasis on science, technology, and administrative technique has tended to place increased value on efficiency, although not necessarily effectiveness.

C. Due to rising costs and the need for increased productivity greater emphasis has been placed on management technology and expertise by police administrators.

85% 87%

86% 94%

80% 96%

This drive toward efficiency and productivity on the part of the chiefs and their administrators has been expressed through salaty negotiations, decision-making processes, and the accountability systems which have tended to run counter to the professionalizing aspirations of some of the rank and file:

A. Younger officers have tended to expect more organizational changes and greater participation in decision making.

6. At the same time police have been op-

A B (7% 0 f agreement)

88% 98%

Professionalization and Unionization of Poke: A Delphi Forecast on Police \‘alues 29

erating within a hostile social environ- ment they seem to have become more and more disenchanted with their own police establishment, including police leadership and the political power agents whom they feel neglect police in- terests and their professional image.

C. Educated officers have become aware of the problems facing their depart- ments, but few have been given an op- portunity to offer solutions. They are often ignored by police administrators.

D. Educated patrolmen have tended to feel that their educational progress has not been appreciated by their superiors.

E. Expected improvement in economic positions and working conditions have been the prime motivating factors in seeking more education.

93% 92x

98% 73%

96% 93%

8 1% 94%

There are considerable additional data in the study which, when considered together, indicate that a managerial model derived from industry which tends to optimize for efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and productivity may be generating serious resentment and frustration on the part of officers who have attempted to respond to a perceived public demand for a more professional, better-educated police force. In like manner, such a managerial perspective may discourage officers who have not yet enter upon the professionalizing road and may wonder, indeed, whether it leads to a significant change in status, recognition, and reward.

Apparently, the greater participation in problem solving and decision making expected by “professionalizing” officers not only runs counter to the hierarchical nature of police departments, but is not compatible with the chiefs’ need to streamline these processes for the sake of efficiency and productivity. Broader participation in decision making is time- consumptive and, therefore, costly. Demonstrable efficiency seems to be more easily achieved through cost-effective decision-making processes and accountability systems managed from the top.

However, the situation appears to be even more complex. Not only do professionally- oriented officers feel unrecognized and unrewarded by their superiors, but also unappreciated by the public to which they are attempting to respond as a means of improving their social status and public image:

A B (% of agreement)

Educated officers feel that their educational progress has not been adequately appreciated by the public. 94% 79%

Thus, the basic incentives for professionalizing-public recognition and support, along with substantial changes in working conditions and compensation-have not been forthcoming in the judgment of these two panels.

so 1 ERRY L. COOPER

The Emphasts on Ejfzcxncy

It should be noted that although the movement toward professionalism has received considerable attention in the literature, the potential problems posed by a management emphasis on efficiency and productivity have been generally ignored. However, it is true that isolated warnings have been issued, and it may serve the reader to briefly cite a few at this point.

As early as 1966, Jerome Skolnickasserted the fundamental importance ofdevelopingan approach to professionalism which is based on the “values of a democratic legal order, rather than on technological proficiency.” Skolnick warned that the police, largely under the intluence of O.W. Wilson and William Parker, have rather tended to subscribe to retorms based upon “a managerial concept of professionalism.” This approach to protessionalization would, according to Skolnick, function as “an ideology undermining the rule of law.” He charged that police have increasingly articulated this concept of professionalism which is “based on a narrow view of managerial efficiency and organizational interest,” thus threatening the primary obligation of police to serve the law ot the land (Skolnick, 1966:236-239).

The Task Force Report: Police in 1967 similarly stressed the point that one of the most important marks of a profession which must be implicitly developed in “proper administrative policy” is an “adherence to values more basic than those required in the interest of efficiency.” The report maintained that this necessary professional characteristic was essential to “the place of police and law enforcement in a democratic society” (President’s Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice, 1967:21).

Charles Saunders has pointed out that the goal of professionalization is “often confused with a narrow concept of mechanical efficiency” and that some police officials seem to be pursuing a narrow goal of “administrative efficiency and organizational autonomy rather than a true sense of profession” (Saunders, 19705). Saunders further suggests that “as long as society tends to support the managerial efficiency of the police over due process of law, an unhealthy tension will be generated between order and legality” (p. 31).

Saunders continues by arguing the professional necessity for “making value judgments and for exercising discretion based upon professional competence.” He later contends that this inherent quality of professionalism must supersede concern for efficiency. Frank Remington is quoted in support of this point, “The aim is not. . .statistically measurable efficiency, but rather. .intelligent and responsible exercise of discretion.” Saunders concludes that it is not possible to assess the “intelligent and responsible exercise of discretion by statistical measures” (p. 66).

The potentially destructive effects of such a preoccupation with measurable efficiency are emphasized by Saunders. He indicates that local officials in some communities have actually resisted salary raises for police with college credits towarda degree as a result of one very limited study which reported that “the productivity” of patrolmen in St. Louis “declined as their years of college increased” (p. 86). This study involved strict quantitative measures of parking tickets issued, vehicles stopped, and pedestrians questioned. Qualitative evaluation was entirely omitted.

While professionalization is deemed, by the panelists, to be primarily a response to public expectations for a better-educated police force, unionization appears to represent, at least in part, a response to the efficiency, cost-cutting, perspective of the chiefs and their

ProkwonalizaCon and Unionization of Police: A Delphi Forecas: on Police Values 31

administrators. Presumably such a movement would be accentuated by lagging public support and recognition.

The situation was rather clearly posed by a three-part item which received strong support from both panels:

A B (% of agreement)

Value shifts within law enforcement organizations are taking different di- rections at different levels: (1) Patrolmen are moving toward an organized labor perspective, seeking collective power for protection of in- terests and the enhancement of their economic positions and working conditions. (2) Supervisors and middle managers (lieutenants and captains) are poised between the labor philosophy of working policemen and the efficiency perspective of top management. They have been less and less able to identify with either per- spective to the exclusion of the other. (3) Chiefs have been adopting a fairly traditional managerial perspective (ca. 1935-65) optimizing for efficiency and cost-effective resource allocation models. (Previously quoted).

98X 90%

84% 85%

85% 87%

The key factor underlying unionization seems to be a double sense of alienation both from the public, whose recognition and support is being sought, and from efficiency- minded chiefs and their administrators. Officers who have moved in the direction of professionalism through education appear to have found insufficient rewards and may consider unionization as an alternative means of achieving status and economic benefits.

Several items dealing with motivations underlying the union movement will give some idea of the kinds of propositions and responses involved in this section of the study:

A B (X of agreement)

A. Unionization is the result of unfair attitudes and treatment by public of- ficials in negotiations concerning salaries and working conditions. (A number of respondents linked public of- ficials with police officials or described them as assuming similar postures uzs a vis the rank and file.)

67% 89%

B. Unionization has been a response both to a sense of isolation from society and an awareness by police that their func- tion is needed by society. 75% 69%

I’ERRY L. COOPER

C. Unionization has been primarily an attempt to gain monetary benefits. il% 88%

In considering the relationship between professionalization and unionization one item otters particular insight:

h B (“0 of agreement)

Unionization has represented a trend m competition with the idea that self- improvement is necessary if an in- crease in status is to be achieved. 6‘4% 77%

This item is significantly supported by the police panel (Bj, but falls barely below the arbitrary level of significance with respect to the academic panel (A). However, since the rate is so close to significance, it is assumed that the statement is supported by both panels.

It the claim embodied in this item isacceptedas reliable, the important point to be noted is that the frustration of professional self-improvement through education might well result in a reaction against such a means of gaining the rewards of social status and higher salaries, and bring about an even more militant resort to the power of unionization to gain those ends. In this case even those officers who were highly motivated toward professionalization may conclude that professionalism does not being recognition, and join the ranks of the unionists with a posture of resistance to self-improvement.

Tlte Future

Both panels expect these trends to continue for the foreseeable future. Professional- ization, mainly through education, will lead to “the general acceptance of lateral entry among police agencies.” The normal expectation for all police officers will be a four-year college education. X11 police management positions will have “minimum educational standards” as prerequisites. “Morale” and “self-esteem” among police officers will increase as the result of continued professionalization. The law enforcement role will broaden to include emphasis on preventive activity and order maintenance, and there is confidence that “patrolmen will achieve a greater role in the development of departmental policy.”

In short, there is considerable optimism about the future of police professionalization, e\‘en in face of the frustrations and difficulties which were expressed. However, the data indicate that such an outlook on the future appears to depend to a very large extent on the assumption that the replacement of the professional “old guard” will change the situation tundamentally:

X B (“0 of agreement)

\I’ounger policemen who have perfected their education and training will begin to replace the “old guard” and their more traditional approach to law enforcement. 92% 9%

~There is a strong expectation in this and other statements that the tuture belongs to educated policemen and that uneducated traditionalists are on the way out. This may in fact occur, but it will not necessarily resolve the difficulties faced by those who have been

counting on professionalization as a means to achie\;e increased 5tatu5 and improved working conditions.

It, as seems to be the judgment of these two panels, one of the major resistances to rewarding officers who are on the way to professionalism is the efficiency, productivity, cost-eflectiv,eness perspective of the chiefs and their administrators, then replacing the uneducated “old guard” will not necessarily change this situation.

Both panels expect this managerial priority to continue:

X B (Sr, 01 agreement)

Emphasis on productivity and efficiency due to rising costs will continue to be impor- tant to law enforcement administrators. 96% 87%

In fact, a better-educated, “new breed” administrative corps may actually exacerbate the problem by more thoroughly implementing managerial efficiency techniques which tend to vkw officers more as quantitativrely oriented functionaries than as qualitatively oriented prolessionals. The bind may become more severe, not less so.

T‘he underlying difficulty may lie with undiscriminatingpublicpressure to reduce taxes and therefore to cut costs and improve the efficiency of governmental services in general. Chiefs 01 police appear to have responded to this pressure, as it is communicated by the

public through elected officials, by resorting to techniquesof management which have been imported from business and industv, but which may not be appropriate for police agencies 11 the movement toward professionalization is to be taken seriously. Such techniques may actually discourage a sense of professional competence and responsibility by attempting to over-control or inappropriately direct behav,ior in order to satisfy the public and their elected officials.

In judgment of both panels police unions will become increasingly militant:

A B (X of agreement)

Police unions will become increasingly, in- \,olved in the political arena and will adopt an “antiliberal” posture. 77% ‘74%

This prospect should be of particular concern to all those who believe that a well educated professional police service is highly desirable. To the extent that professionalism is not aclcnowledged and rewarded in terms of intradepartmental decision-making processes, working conditions. social status, and financial compensation, unionization will quite likely become an increasingly appealing alternative.

CONCLL’SION

It is possible to envision a situation in which the future shapeof law enforcement teeters precariously between a trend toward professionalization, on the one hand, which could be encouraged by substantially increased salaries, a larger role in decision making and increased social status, and a trend toward unionization, on the other, fed by continued social alienation, undiscriminating public demands lor tax reduction and cost cutting, and resistance by shortsighted, efficiency-oriented police leadership to the granting of substantial rewards and recognition for becoming “professionalized.”

FERRY L. COOPER

The power of union organization could replace the appeal of increased education as a means to improve the lot of the rank and file. A socially dangerous isolation of rank-and-file officers could be the result of their seeking refuge in politically active “antiliberal” unions. An occupational group which exercises the legal power of physical coercion, even to the point of decisions about the life and death of citizens, must not be forced into alienation, either from the public they are supposed to protect and serve, or from those officially responsible for their supervision and control.

The data generated by this study should at least give cause for serious reflection and further study. If the public desires a professional police force, chiefs must be encouraged to treat their officers as professionals when, and if, they in fact achieve the qualifications, standards, and competencies associated with professionalism. Police officers cannot be encouraged to become more professional on the one hand and continue to be treated like functionaries on the other, when, and if, they have attained a level of professionalism. Policemen who have developed professional qualifications must be paid accordingly, they must be involved in the development of departmental policy, and they must be given professional latitude in the use of time and exercise of responsibility. Otherwise a strong, and understandable, reaction in the direction of rank and file “antiliberal” union power may result, thus contributing to the intensification of the police subculture and a further breach in the matrix of values shared with the larger society.

It seems clear that these proposed adjustments run counter to the optimizing of productivity in easily measurable forms. Salary increases for officers who complete a university degree probably cannot be justified statistically in terms of increased productivity

.according to quantifiable criterial(number of arrests, dollars saved in crime prevention, etc.). Nor can the employment of sufficient personnel to allow individual officers more time to interact with the public, and to accept responsibility for dealing thoroughly with citizensas clients, necessarily be demonstrated as being more efficient in terms of dollar cost for output received. The cost-benefit analysis appropriate to a professional police force must include a wide range of social costs and benefits which are difficult, if not impossible, to quantify either in statistical or in economic terms.

‘Subsequently. chi square tests further indtcated that prevwus educattonal achwvement was not a stgntficant tactor in responses relating to several ctuctal propositrons.

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