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Abstract—In this paper we focus on toimprove decision making skills by the helpof simulator training. Decision theory orthe process of decision making is anapproach for problem solving. In theaeronautical dimension, especially in somecertain cases such as emergency, the mostimportant thing is to make decision in ashort time. Ability to make good decisioncan be developed by training but it cannotbe said that all good decision-makers haveeducation on it. In some cases, decision-makers make good decisions in the light oftheir experience, observation and mentalpreparation of the situation. It’sobserved that among the other factorsmental preparation is the most effectiveway to make good decisions. A pilot issupposed to make a decision in a veryshort time when an emergency occurs. Theability to make a good decision is basedupon good judgment. Various factors mayaffect judgment. The best way to improvethe judgment ability is to make practicesin advance. Simulators have importance inthis respect and it’s possible to makevarious practices with simulators.

Index Terms — Flight Simulator, JudgmentAbility, Naturalistic Decision Making,

I. INTRODUCTIONEvery person consciously or not has

to make several decisions in dailylife. Whether the results areimportant or not, decision making isan inevitable part of life. During thedecision making process, following theright methods will get the decisionmaker closer to the best decision.Sometimes, people’s lives depend ondecisions. One of the fields, in whichlives of personnel depend ondecisions, is aviation. Surveys haveshown that many people died inplane/helicopter due to wrongdecisions that made by pilots.

It has been proved that out of 37accidents in which air vehiclesinvolved between 1978-1990, 25 tookplace due to the tactically wrongdecisions of pilots [1]. So, themargin for error in aviation isnarrow. Therefore, a safe flight canbe achieved by a pilot and crew whomake healthy and correct decisions.

Aviation schools all around theworld carry out intensive and toughtraining programs. In the case ofmilitary aviation programs, trainingprocess is much more difficult than

*Izzet Cakan, Army War College, 4. Levent, 34330, Pbx: +90 212 398-0100, İstanbul-Turkey, e-mail: izzetcakan@gmail.com.* *Suleyman Ozkaynakcı, Army War College, 4. Levent, 34330, Pbx: +90 212 398-0100, İstanbul-Turkey, e-mail: sozkynk@gmail.com***Talip Guler, Army War College, 4. Levent, 34330, Pbx: +90 212 398-0100, İstanbul-Turkey, e-mail: talipguler99@gmail.com

I.Cakan*, S.Ozkaynakcı**, T.Guler***

Simulators’ Role on MilitaryPilots’ Naturalistic Decision

Making

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civil aviation programs due toconsisting of courses to improvetechnical knowledge and skills. Thesecourses also aim to improve pilot’sjudgment in emergencies. However,these courses may not be enough toprovide pilots with ability to makeright decisions in emergencies. Forthe purpose of following the correct

procedure there are some publisheddocuments such as checklists, flightmanuals, standard operationalprocedures (SOPs) or ATC instructions.The aim is flight safety andexercising emergency procedurescorrectly by taking every detail intoconsideration.

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The position of the pilots asdecision-makers is vital in aviationin which safety and securityprocedures are strictly abided by.Although the pilots have variouselements helping them to reach a gooddecision, they may not have theopportunities to make use of them.Especially, in an emergency situation,

a pilot might not survive if he/sheattentively chose to follow analyticalmodels to every decision made; in caseof limited time [2]. In this case, theexpected course of action is toeliminate the deadly results forpilots by making the right decision.

II. IMPORTANCE OF FLIGHT SIMULATORS

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Taking into consideration thepilots’ decision making process, byusing logical order in addition tofollowing procedures it’s possible toreach the correct decision. A pilothas very limited time in an emergencysituation. Instead of following aprocedure, it’s necessary to evaluateand control the situation [3,4].

Decision made by pilots has an effecton lots of people. In order to acquirethese skills, making rehearsals ofunexpected situations and raising thereadiness level are key elements.Training in simulator is a significantcontributor in raising this readinessand reaching the desired level.Simulators offer that by costeffective repetition. At the same

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time, they provide students theenvironment to acquire new methods ofproblem solving [5]. That’s whysimulators have a big role in trainingespecially in aviation.

The purpose of the simulators is tofacilitate the pilots’ decisionmaking. Accuracy in detail whilemodeling the aircraft increases the

quality and credibility of training[6]. From vibration during flight tovisual resolution and real weatherconditions detailed simulator systems,are today the necessity of flightcenters and a matter of prestige foralready possessed. Flight trainingsimulators, an air platform; whetherhelicopter or a plane, havingphysical, dynamical and functional

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features and forming requiredenvironmental conditions offer avirtual training atmosphere.Simulators have an important role, forthe crew of an aircraft (pilot, flighttechnician, and operator) to improvetheir mission, training or maintenancecapability. In addition, simulatorsprovide appropriate environment forgeneralization studies that’s hard to

evaluate personnel’s age, experienceand different features in real flight[7].

Five major advantages of trainingwith flight simulators are:

- Increased efficiency:Meteorological conditions, airspace

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limitations or maintenance problemshave not impact on training,

- Increased safety: Safetyprecautions and level of task demandapplied during training,

- Lower training cost: One hour realflight cost is approximately 1300$

with S-70 Blackhawk while simulatorflight hour 70$,

- The possibility of the situationthat is not practical always in realworld,

- The minimization of operationaland environmental factors [8].

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Including flight controls, visualcapabilities, avionics equipment andmotion, every effect on aircraftduring flight can be simulated. Userstake advantage of these simulatorsespecially on emergency training. Someother types of simulators exist thatsome capabilities are reduced, whichare sufficient generally in navigationtraining and teaching flight systems.

Apart from these, computer programswith less capabilities and less detailcan be used for only familiarizing andlearning operation system. Utilizingthe best equipped simulator may not beeffective at all times. Thus,simulator for particular mission oronly a computer with an interface willbe satisfactory. As a matter of fact,according to some studies, the

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correlation between improved cockpitsystems and pilot’s workload or erroris not linear. Sometimes improvedcockpit systems complicate thesituation instead of facilitating.Howsoever, positive outcomes ofsimulator training are observed byseveral studies [9].

III. NATURALISTIC DECISION MAKING

The correct processing of thedecision-making process with the aimof examining in detail the stages andproceed to complete the evaluation ofmany criteria, various theories andmethods have been introduced [10].

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To arrive at the correct result, itis necessary to select the appropriatedecisions according to the situations.In this context, decision conditionscan be categorized as;

- Decision making under certainty,- Decision making in the risk

environment,

- Decision making with limitedinformation,

- Decision making under uncertainty.

Decision making under certainty isthe option of criterion maximizationor minimization. Decision making underrisk is the existence of differentconditions against the decision. Inthis case what outcome the decision

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will cause is unknown. If theprobability and distribution mean ofevents are known, this is decisionmaking with limited information. Ifthere is no information aboutconditions, it is decision makingunder uncertainty. Considering in thiscontext, role of simulators isimportant in four categories forsolving encountered problems.

In operator manuals of an aircraft,the speed limits and procedures arewritten. But in most of the occasionspilots make decisions on their ownexperience. According to a study byMIT, 2000 approaches were observed inthunderstorm conditions and though thebad weather conditions it was observedthat two third of pilots close to the

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airport continued to approach as theyplanned [11]. According to the data ofBEA (France Accident InvestigationBureau), between 2004-2013 almost %60of the accident in general aviationoccurred in adverse meteorologicalconditions [12]. Additionally exceptfrom environmental conditions pilotstendency for arriving theirdestination form a significant portion

of aviation accidents. According to ananalysis named “The Get-home-itisSyndrome” pilots were observed to beresponsible for more than 41.5 % ofcasualties in general aviation between1991-1996 [13].

IV. SIMULATOR’S CONTRIBUTION ONMILITARY PILOTS’ DECISION MAKING

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Making good decision is an abilitythat can be improved througheducation. If a pilot carries out gooddecision-making practices, the risk offlight will be reduced. Good decision-making and the ability to make a gooddecision is based upon experience,training and mental preparation of thesituation It’s observed that among theother factors mental preparation is

the most effective way to make gooddecisions.

A pilot has to consider theindicators in the cockpit, hazardsetc. to make the right decision.According to the risk managementhandbook [14], steps to give rightdecisions can be listed as:

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- Identifying personal hazardousattitudes to safe flight.

- Learning behavior modificationtechniques.

- Learning how to recognize andcope with stress.

- Developing risk assessmentskills.

- Using all resources.

- Evaluating the effectiveness ofone’s ADM skills.

Making a good decision is directlycorrelated with correct judgment. Someof the circumstances have negativeeffects on decision-making process.These are:

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Insufficient Experience: In mostcases the experienced pilots haveadvantages more than new ones inflight.

Attitude: personal characteristic isimportant in the edge of decision-making.

Limited time: Decisions made late incritical condition have no differencefrom the wrong decision.

Limited information: It may causethe pilot to make a wrong decision andto fail in urgent situations.

The limited alternatives: A pilotshould know well the limits of theaircraft that he flies. A rescuermaneuver on the aircraft with highmaneuverability can cause you toexceed the limits of your ownaircraft.

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Adverse conditions: Defectiveindicators inside the cockpit ornegative environmental conditions.

Procedures: legal requirements orcompany policies that will affectdecision.

Fatigue: Pilot’s health status,issues such as environmentalconditions

Psychological condition: Density ofmood and emotion which complicatesdecision-making.

It’s not only because ofregulations, although its numerousadvantages, simulator training is notused commonly in daily flight training[15]. Lintern et.al. on the study thathe made on initial training with

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simulator, pilots that got basictraining with simulator couldn’ttransfer it to the aircraft [16].Conversely, within the regulationsestablished by general aviationauthorities, most parts of CPL and IFRtrainings made by simulators [15].

For commercial pilots it’s animportant point that how much profit

will be gained and cost effectivenessof education planning has priority. Onthe contrary, military pilots don’thave financial worries. In this casecomparison of profit and loss willcome out. If simulator training isadvantageous it should be used, but ifnot indispensible, it’s unnecessary toreplace real aircraft due to financial

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The approach that we introduce doesnot contradict studies made before.During basic and beginning trainingphases, abilities that gained withsimulator may not be demonstrated onreal platforms. But for advancedtrainings, mainly composed ofemergency trainings, in terms ofability to pass on real platform and

quick judgment simulators arebeneficial.

In terms of military pilot, (as seenin figure 1) Bondaruk [17] categorizessimulator training in 3 parts:

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Figure-1:Simulator TrainingCategories

It may be a requirement for traineeto get trained in all of them or onlyone. However, emergency training is amust for all parts. Particularly thatis the point that pilots should usenaturalistic decision making process

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Non-Routine Situation Training

Precedural

Training (IFR)

Tactical Training

Flight Maneuver Training

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and make best decision. Simulatortrainings that improve pilots’situational awareness help for mentalreadiness shows that there is asignificant decrease in pilots’mistake after training in simulators[15].

In the study that made by Kozuba andBondaruk, in simulator the more

encountered with the same situation,the more pilots’ mental readiness willincrease. Thus, a successfulnaturalistic decision making processcan be exercised for sudden cases inreal flight.

Simulator training is an effectiveprocess in terms of mental progressand readiness. It contributes

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occasions to knowing-heuristics methodby creating different situations. Oneof areas which are contributed mostlyby these opportunities is aviation.Simulators are the most cost effectiveand efficient methods in which pilots’decision making processes are observedand they are trained for better [18].Performing the correct behaviorrequires not to panic and act in calm

mood. In this context a study showsthat adrenalin level can be droppeddown by training in situationalawareness, information processes anddecision making process subjects [19].It was observed that when pilots reacha decision, motion effect was found tobe higher than time delay, noise, andcharacteristic effects in the reactionof the pilots [20]. In this sense it

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must be considered that motioneffective platforms will be moreuseful in trainings for improvingjudgment.

One must continuously operate thecurrent decision making processesaccording to the changing conditionsby assessing the situations. If thepilot chooses to continue the ex-plan

in the situations which plans must berevised, this failure is named PlanContinuation Error (PCE). Failing toexecute a missed approach, or failingto go around in a blurry weatherconditions or trying to complete thelanding during an unstable approachare some of these errors [21].

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As mentioned previously, within thepossibilities, by creating certainty,risky, limited information oruncertainty scenarios helping pilotsto make best decision can only besupplied by simulators.

V. CONCLUSION

No matter what the type of aviationand stage of training, flightsimulators are utilized widespread asa pilot training. Flight simulatorshave these advantages:

Primarily high level security,opportunity of scenario repetition andspecific cases, providing efficiency,availability independent from

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environmental conditions, possibilityof intervention to mistakes,availability of time for normallylimited time decision makingsituation, decrease in required flighthour in real aircraft and cost-effectiveness etc.

Decisions made by pilots duringflight are among the major critical

ones. Correctness of these decisionsdepends on several factors liketraining, experience, age, personalcharacteristics. In spite of variouscontributing sources to pilots’decision making during flight, in anunexpected situation they use naturaldecision making process. The decisionmade without depending on ananalytical approach is the

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naturalistic decision making process.Making a good decision during flightis directly related to being preparedfor unexpected scenarios. Thecontribution of flight simulators inpilot training is exercising again andagain unexpected scenarios oremergency situations. Thanks tosimulator trainings readiness can beraised to high levels.

Sometimes minor mistakes may causeunrecoverable damages in some fieldssuch as aviation. In aviation, rightdecisions can savehundreds of lives orvice versa. Pilots have very criticalrole during the decision makingprocess in cockpit. From the beginningto the end of a flight every momentneeds to be ratiocinated. For a

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company a small mistake can result inprestige loss or cost millions ofdollars. In military, a militarypilot’s bad decision cause soldiers tolose total motivation.

Assuming a critical role duringflight, pilots use check-lists,standard operation procedure, aircontrol tower instructions as

analytical decision making process.Nevertheless pilots don’t always makeanalytical decisions. Particularly insituations requiring “land as soon aspossible” or “immediate action”,natural decision making process is on.

In this case, making a mistakecauses mortal consequences. Therefore,

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improving pilots’ judgment competencyis important.

Thanks to simulators, identifyingpilots’ faults and correcting them byfocusing on make possible for pilotsto be ready for emergency situations.

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REFERENCES

[1] Kanki, B. G., & Palmer, M. T.(1993).Communication and crew resourcemanagement. Cockpit resourcemanagement, 99-136.

[2] FAA, The Pilot's Handbook OfAeronautical, 2008, Chapter 17

[3] Zsambok, C. E., & Klein, G. (Eds.).(2014). Naturalistic decision making.Psychology Press.

[4]Wiener, E. L., Kanki, B. G., &Helmreich, R. L. (Eds.). (1995).Cockpit resource management. GulfProfessional Publishing.

[5]Kincaid, J. P., Hamilton, R., Tarr, R.W., & Sangani, H. (2003). Simulation ineducation and training. In Appliedsystem simulation (pp. 437-456).Springer US.

[6]Caro, P. W. (1973). Aircraft simulatorsand pilot training. Human Factors: The

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Journal of the Human Factors andErgonomics Society, 15(6), 502-509.

[7] Kennedy, Q., Taylor, J. L., Reade, G.,& Yesavage, J. A. (2010). Age andexpertise effects in aviation decisionmaking and flight control in a flightsimulator. Aviation, space, andenvironmental medicine, 81(5), 489.

[8] Rolfe, J. M., & Staples, K. J. (Eds.).(1988). Flight simulation (Vol. 1).Cambridge University Press.

[9]Orasanu, J., Ames, N., Martin, L., &Davison, J. (2001). Factors in aviationaccidents: decision errors. Linkingexpertise and naturalistic decisionmaking, 209.

[10] Abelson, R. P., & Levi, A. (1985).Decision making and decision theory.Handbook of social psychology, 1, 231-309.

[11] Rhoda, D. A., &Pawlak, M. L. (1999).An assessment of thunderstorm

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penetrations and deviations bycommercial aircraft in the terminalarea. Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, Lincoln Laboratory, ProjectReport NASA/A-2,3.

[12] BEA,2013, Annual Report, BureauEnquêteAnalyse.

[13] BEA,2000, Objectif: Destination.Technical Report, BureauEnquêteAnalyse.

[14] Carroll, R., & American Society forHealthcare Risk Management.(1997). Riskmanagement handbook. Burlington: TheUniversity of Vermont.

[15] Kozuba, J., & Bondaruk, A. FlightSimulator As An Essential DeviceSupporting The Process Of ShapingPilot's Situational Awareness.

[16] G. Lintern, S.N. Roscoe, J.M. Koncoe,L.D. Segal, Transfer of landing skills

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in beginning flight training. HumanFactor No 32/1990, pp. 319-327.

[17] A. Bondaruk, Metodyczne uwarunkowaniakonstruowanina programów szkoleniasymulatorowego [Methodologicalconsiderations of designing simulatortraining syllabi] , Conference on "TheInstructor Preparing Trainees forDifficult and Dangerous Professions",Dęblin, February, 2014.

[18] O'Hare, D. o., Mullen, N., & Arnold,A. (2010).Enhancing AeronauticalDecision Making through Case-BasedReflection. International Journal OfAviation Psychology, 20(1), 48-58.

[19] Huttunen, K., Keränen, H., Väyrynen,E., Pääkkönen, R., &Leino, T. (2011).Effect of cognitive load on speechprosody in aviation: Evidence frommilitary simulator flights. Appliedergonomics, 42(2), 348-357.

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[20] Nieuwenhuizen, F. M., Mulder, M., vanPaassen, M. M., &Bülthoff, H. H.(2013). Influences of Simulator MotionSystem Characteristics on Pilot ControlBehavior. Journal of Guidance, Control,and Dynamics, 36(3), 667-676.

[21] Orasanu, J., Ames, N., Martin, L., &Davison, J. (2001). Factors in aviationaccidents: decision errors. Linkingexpertise and naturalistic decisionmaking, 209.

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