Марек Домбровски

20 лет российских реформ: оценка извне

Презентация на Юбилейную конференцию Леонтьевского центра, посвященную 20-летию начала экономических реформ и перспективам

дальнейшего развития России, Санкт-Петербург, 10 сентября 2011 г.

Центр социально-экономических исследований

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Real GDP, annual growth rate in %

-14.8

-8.7

-12.7

-4 -3.6

1.4

-5.3

6.4

10

5.1 4.7

7.3 7.26.4

7.48.1

5.6

-7.9

4.3

-18

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

Source: WEO database, July 2010

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Annual inflation, end of period, in %

215.1

131.3

21.8

11

84.4

36.5

20.2 18.615.1

12 11.7 10.99

11.913.3

8.8

839.9

1

10

100

1000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: WEO database, April 2010

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Major structural challenges:

• Energy/commodity monoculture: share of energy sector itself in GDP estimated between 10 and 30% of GDP (transfer pricing, structural factors) and over 60% of exports

• High energy intensity • Slow progress in restructuring many manufacturing industries

and agriculture (question about privatization strategy in 1990s)

• Underdevelopment of infrastructure• Limited contribution of SME to GDP and employment (ca.

20%; comparing to ca. 50% in EU NMS)

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Institutional challenges:

• Crawling renationalization• Restricting foreign investors in some sectors (mostly –

natural resources)• Administrative concentration of selected sectors• Increasing administrative interference• Centralization of government power• Legal instability, weak protection of property rights, poor

legal enforcement (weakness of civil service and judiciary)

• Unfinished WTO accession Unfavorable business and investment climate

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Ranking Country2008 Score

Business Freedom

Trade Freedom

Fiscal Freedom

Gov't SizeMonetary Freedom

Investment Freedom

Financial Freedom

Property Rights

Freedom from

Corruption

Labor Freedom

56 Albania 63,3 55,6 75,8 90,3 76,0 80,4 70 70 30 26 59,328 Armenia 70,3 81,3 85,0 89,0 86,4 84,6 70 70 35 29 73,1

107 Azerbaijan 55,3 61,6 78,4 80,4 82,9 76,5 30 30 30 24 59,2150 Belarus 44,7 58,6 52,2 81,0 55,5 66,2 20 10 20 21 62,0121 Bosnia and Herzegovina 53,7 56,1 79,8 73,7 48,3 76,6 50 60 10 29 53,759 Bulgaria 62,9 67,5 86,0 82,7 56,0 73,7 60 60 30 40 73,2

126 China 52,8 50,0 70,2 66,4 89,7 76,5 30 30 20 33 62,4113 Croatia 54,6 58,1 87,6 68,8 28,0 78,8 50 60 30 34 50,537 Czech Republic 68,5 63,9 86,0 71,3 45,6 80,3 70 80 70 48 70,212 Estonia 77,8 84,5 86,0 86,0 62,0 82,0 90 80 90 67 50,332 Georgia 69,2 85,0 71,0 90,7 81,3 71,4 70 60 35 28 99,943 Hungary 67,2 73,9 86,0 70,0 26,5 77,2 80 70 70 52 66,876 Kazakhstan 60,5 56,5 86,2 80,1 84,7 71,9 30 60 30 26 80,070 Kyrgyz Republic 61,1 60,4 81,4 93,9 76,1 75,6 50 50 30 22 72,038 Latvia 68,3 74,3 86,0 83,4 59,2 73,8 70 70 55 47 64,626 Lithuania 70,8 83,2 86,0 86,3 68,3 78,5 70 80 50 48 57,671 Macedonia 61,1 65,1 83,4 88,1 61,6 85,5 50 60 30 27 60,789 Moldova 58,4 68,5 79,2 83,0 56,9 67,6 30 50 50 32 66,662 Mongolia 62,8 71,1 81,4 85,0 71,7 78,2 60 60 30 28 62,483 Poland 59,5 54,1 86,0 68,6 43,5 82,3 60 60 50 37 53,568 Romania 61,5 74,1 86,0 85,6 70,8 72,5 60 50 30 31 55,3

134 Russia 49,9 52,8 44,2 79,2 69,5 64,4 30 40 30 25 64,235 Slovak Republic 68,7 69,3 86,0 89,4 53,9 76,9 70 80 50 47 64,975 Slovenia 60,6 73,0 86,0 62,4 33,2 79,5 60 50 50 64 47,7

114 Tajikistan 54,5 43,4 77,8 89,3 84,1 65,8 30 40 30 22 62,174 Turkey 60,8 67,9 86,8 77,7 68,3 70,8 50 50 50 38 48,0

152 Turkmenistan 43,4 30,0 79,2 90,6 85,3 66,4 10 10 10 22 30,0133 Ukraine 51,1 44,3 82,2 79,0 43,0 69,9 30 50 30 28 54,3130 Uzbekistan 52,3 67,8 68,4 88,0 68,3 57,5 30 20 30 21 72,1

Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom, 2008

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Doing Business 2008

Economy Doing

Business Starting a Business

Licenses Employing Workers

Registering Property

Getting Credit

Protecting Investors

Paying Taxes

Int. Trade

Enforcing Contracts

Closing a Business

Estonia 17 20 14 156 21 48 33 31 7 29 50 Georgia 18 10 11 4 11 48 33 102 64 42 105 Latvia 22 30 82 96 85 13 51 20 19 3 64 Lithuania 26 57 57 124 4 36 83 71 23 18 31 Slovakia 32 72 50 75 5 7 98 122 90 50 36 Armenia 39 47 73 48 2 36 83 143 118 64 42 Hungary 45 67 87 81 96 26 107 127 45 12 53 Bulgaria 46 100 103 57 62 13 33 88 89 90 72 Romania 48 26 90 145 123 13 33 134 38 37 81 Slovenia 55 120 62 166 99 68 19 63 69 79 34 Czech Rep. 56 91 83 55 54 26 83 113 30 97 108 Kazakhstan 71 57 173 22 72 48 51 44 178 28 100 Poland 74 129 156 78 81 68 33 125 40 68 88 Macedonia 75 21 76 128 91 48 83 99 72 84 127 Montenegro 81 98 113 98 103 84 19 129 113 131 41 Serbia 86 90 149 110 115 13 64 121 58 101 103 Moldova 92 81 153 93 46 97 98 111 122 17 82 Kyrgyzstan 94 49 152 74 16 68 33 152 177 32 128 Azerbaijan 96 64 159 80 56 26 107 141 173 30 75 Croatia 97 93 162 139 99 48 122 43 96 45 78 Bosnia&Herz 105 150 150 114 144 13 83 142 53 126 61 Russia 106 50 177 101 45 84 83 130 155 19 80 Belarus 110 119 94 43 94 115 98 178 137 16 69 Albania 136 123 168 109 82 48 165 118 70 74 178 Uzbekistan 138 54 145 67 119 170 107 159 165 48 119 Ukraine 139 109 174 102 138 68 141 177 120 46 140 Tajikistan 153 161 166 125 43 135 176 155 176 23 99

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Corruption Perception Index – A Map

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Net private capital flows in USD billion

-14.4

-3.9

-23.8-18.2

-21.7 -20.8-24.8

-15-8.1 -8.9

0.1

41.4

81.7

-133.9

-57.2

-10.2

-1.9

-140

-90

-40

10

60

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010H1

Source: CBR (www.cbr.ru/statistics)

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Interrelation between economic and political freedoms in transition countries

RO

MK

RU

UZ

SI

PL LT

MD

KG

KZ

EE

CZ

HR

BG

UABA

AZ

LV

SKHU

GE

AM

AL

BY

TM

TJ

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0

HF Index of Economic Freedom

FH

In

dex

of

New

Dem

ocr

aci

es

Source: http://www.heritage.org/research/features/index/downloads/2008PastScores.xls; http://www.freedomhouse.hu//images/fdh_galleries/NIT2007/rating%20and%20democracy%20score%20summary3.pdf