© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Marlene A. Lee Senior Policy Analyst Domestic Programs 300 MILLION AND COUNTING Education and Workforce: The Critical

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU

Marlene A. LeeSenior Policy AnalystDomestic Programs

300 MILLION AND COUNTINGEducation and Workforce:

The Critical Links


Technology has accelerated the pace of change and our country is transitioning to a knowledge-based economy. U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao, August 2006

Employment change in major industry sectors, 1990 to 2005

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics program.


The gap in unemployment rates between those with a bachelor’s degree and others is wider today than in 1967.

Percent unemployed

Note: 25 to 64 years for 1967 to 1997; 25 years or older for 2006.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March Current Population Survey; and Wayne J. Howe, Monthly Labor Review (Jan. 1988).


Across racial and ethnic groups, higher educational attainment accompanies lower unemployment rates.

Percent unemployed, 2006

Note: Ages 25 and over.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Most of the new jobs projected for the future are expected to be filled by persons with some kind of postsecondary education.U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao, August 2006

Employment growth and net replacement by occupation, 2004 to 2014

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, America’s Dynamic Workforce 2006 data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections Program; Daniel Hecker in Monthly Labor Review (November 2005).


The demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change as the U.S. population composition changes. The labor force will age and…

Percent distribution of U.S. labor force, by age group

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Mitra Toossi, Monthly Labor Review (May 2002); and PRB estimates from 2005 American Community Survey.


… is expected to become more racially and ethnically diverse.

Percent distribution of U.S. labor force, by race/ethnicity

Source: Mitra Toossi, Monthly Labor Review (May 2002). Projections not adjusted for 2000 census count.

2000 2050


Despite increased education achievement in the past 40 years, Hispanics still have higher dropout rates than non-Hispanic whites and blacks.

Percent of 16- to 24-year-olds who were high school dropouts

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics.


Compared to all whites and Asians, a smaller share of Hispanics, African Americans, and American Indians are proficient in reading by 4th grade.

Percent of 4th grade students who are proficient in reading, 2005

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2005 report from National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP).


Similar racial and ethnic differences in math proficiency persist into the 8th grade.

Percent of 8th grade students who are proficient in mathematics, 2005



Even smaller shares of racial and ethnic groups are proficient in science by 12th grade.

Percent of 12th grade students who are proficient in science, 2005



Hispanics and African Americans are under-represented in the 2005 science and engineering labor force.

Source: Population Reference Bureau analysis of 2005 American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau).


The 2005 science and engineering labor force is younger than the labor force as a whole, but over 25% of S & E degree holders are expected to reach retirement age in the next 20 years.

Percent in labor force and S&E labor force

Sources: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey; and National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, Chapter 3.


The age and retirement patterns of science and engineering degree holders suggest that the science and engineering workforce will continue to grow, but at a slower rate.

Percent of science & engineering (S&E) degree-holders working full-time, 2003

Source: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators 2006, Chapter 3


Conclusions

In today’s labor market, workers with the proper educational foundation and technical skills have an employment and earnings advantage.

Demand for workers with a postsecondary education will be even greater in the future as technological advances change work in technical and nontechnical fields.

Because race and ethnic groups differ in their educational achievement, demographic trends in the labor force will affect the availability of workers with the needed education and technical skills.

Growth of the science and engineering workforce will slow unless the representation of Hispanics and African Americans in these fields increases, and/or older workers delay retirement.

Documents

© 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Marlene A. Lee Senior Policy Analyst Domestic Programs 300 MILLION AND COUNTING Education and Workforce: The Critical