38
U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th , 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 1

U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends

Bryan Kucinski, PE

Presented to:

New Mexico NAIOP

February 24th, 2014

Page 2: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 2

General Agenda

FMI Introduction Who we are… Big Picture VUCA Macro Trends Reality Micro Trends Drivers Market Outlook Metrics New Mexico / ABQ Specifics

Page 3: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 3

About FMI

Our HistoryFounded in 1953 by Dr. Emol A. Fails, FMI provides management consulting, investment banking and research services for the worldwide construction industry.

Our PurposeBuild a great future for the worldwide construction industry and its leading organizations.

Our ValuesPrincipled associates. Greater opportunity and impact as one firm than as individuals. The long-term success of our clients.

Envisioned FutureTo be the most respected firm in the construction industry by 2020.

Management Consulting

Investment Banking

Research Services

Page 4: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 4

FMI Markets Served

Contractors

Construction Materials

Owners

Surety Companies

Residential Building Industry

Manufacturers and Suppliers

Architectsand Engineers

Associations and Labor Organizations

FMI in Europe

Utilities

Page 5: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 5

The changing nature of business in the construction industry

Rethinking ownership transfer and leadership development

Redefining leadership: strategic thinking in today’s VUCA world

Globalization and how it impacts our industry

Modularization and prefabrication: role development and evolution

Recovering the lost generation for the construction industry’s future

The science of efficiency and productivity: construction 2.0 in the new normal

Market factors shaping the construction trade unions of tomorrow

Convergence of design/construction

The federal construction sector: understanding a transforming market

2014 Trends in the Construction Industry

Page 6: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 6

Understanding the SignificanceU.S. Employment – December 2012

Page 7: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 7

2007 2012 2017

Total Residential 500,468 280,844 485,650

Total Nonresidential 462,215 354,051 473,967

Total Nonbuilding Structures 188,667 213,803 275,174

Total Put in Place 1,152,351 848,698 1,234,792

Industry Trends and Challenges: Construction Economy (1 of 2)

The Lost DecadeTotal Construction Put in Place 2007, 2012 and 2017

(Millions Current $)

Page 8: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 8

Industry Trends and Challenges: Construction Economy (2 of 2)

Constant Dollars

Total Residential

Total Nonresidential Buildings

Total Nonbuilding Structures

Total Put in Place

1996

1996 1996

1996

20152015

2015 2015

1997 Level

2000 Level2002 Level

Page 9: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 9

Jobs and Unemployment

Construction Unemployment Rates | 1951 - 2013

Source: U.S. Department of Labor1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Construction

National

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

Page 10: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 10

NRCI First Quarter 2014 - FMI

1=Least Challenging 2 3 4 5=Most Challenging

Hiring talented people 2% 9% 20% 36% 33%

Finding profitable work in your market(s) 2% 4% 28% 38% 27%

Dealing with changes in healthcare insurance coverage 19% 17% 38% 18% 8%

Increasing productivity 1% 16% 46% 32% 6%

Rising cost of labor 7% 24% 46% 20% 3%

Rising cost of materials 6% 29% 46% 16% 3%

Potential for inflation 11% 39% 32% 15% 3%

Foreign competition entering your market(s) 65% 19% 9% 5% 3%Domestic competition entering your market(s) 13% 25% 35% 21% 5%Reduced construction/engineering budgets for federal, state and local municipalities 19% 27% 24% 23% 7%Uncertainty of the direction of government, especially regarding decisions directly affecting the economy 8% 12% 26% 35% 18%Entering new markets 19% 20% 31% 21% 8%

Talent, Profit, Productivity and Government Insecurity challenge the non-res respondents…

Page 11: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 11

Source: Risk Management Associates, Philadelphia, Pa.Annual Statement Studies 1985-2012Recession Periods Are Shaded Red

Contractor Profit Before Tax19

85

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Utilities HVAC Paving Heavy Construction Commercial Electrical

Perc

ent

Page 12: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 12

Industry Earnings Before Tax | 2007 vs. 2013

Highway, Street & Bridge

Structural Steel & Precast Concrete

Roofing

Water & Sewer Line

Site Preparation

Residential

Painting & Wall Covering

Poured Concrete

Commercial and Institutional

Masonry

Drywall & Insulation

Residential Remodelers

Plumbing, Heating & Air-Conditioning

Other Heavy and Civil Engineering

Electrical

Industrial Building

Floor Laying

Other Specialty Trade

Oil and Gas Pipeline

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

5.0%

6.0%

5.8%

5.0%

4.8%

5.0%

4.6%

4.4%

4.4%

4.4%

4.1%

3.4%

4.0%

7.0%

3.8%

3.4%

1.4%

4.3%

6.0%

2.4%

5.7%

4.2%

3.1%

3.9%

1.0%

5.1%

3.8%

2.2%

0.8%

1.7%

3.3%

2.6%

2.6%

2.9%

1.7%

2.5%

4.9%

7.6%

2013 2007

Page 13: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 13

Carpenters

Electricians

Pipelayers, Plumbers, Pipefitters and Steamfitters

Engineering and Design Occupations

Painters and Paperhangers

Construction Managers

Roofers

General and Operations Managers

Brickmasons, Blockmasons and Stonemasons

0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000

150,900144,000

107,80097,000

84,80069,900

49,70048,800

46,20033,80033,600

28,80024,20023,100

22,80021,400

19,50017,700

Industry Trends and Challenges:Labor Shortages to Return

Percentages to the right of bars represent the percent change in employment for each labor category for the period of 2012 to 2016

Forecast Change in Full-time Employment Demand (Year 2016 vs. 2012)

+28%

+22%

+24%+23%

+22%

+25%

+20%

+23%

+30%

+29%

+20%

+23%+25%

+25%+27%

+27%

+24%

+28%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; FMI

Page 14: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 14

Convergence of Trends – LABOR CHALLENGES

– Unsophisticated

– Volatility

– Mobility

– Ethics

– Baby Bust

– Baby Boom

– Immigration / Hispanic

– Fewer Technical/Science

– Lower Skills

– “Soft” Subjects

– Multiple Market Growth

- Attractiveness

It is more than retiring labor….

Page 15: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 15

Prices

• No debate that costs will continue to rise. This has a potentially positive effect to margins for some but the cost of overall building needs to be realized.

• Expect to pay more – expect failures

• Cement, gypsum and wood products continue to rise over-proportionally.

• New Mexico is above average for material prices (1-3% additional increases have been noted)

Page 16: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 16

Sophisticated procurement practices are being employed. Selecting contractors based solely on price is increasingly recognized as a poor-risk mitigation strategy. Project owner staff (e.g., facilities planning) are more familiar with design and construction practices.

Surety Losses Average 6-37% between 2008 - 2012. Contractor pressure forces changes… Sizable increase in SDI (Subcontractor Default Insurance) Rates up 10% for Worker Comp, 5% General Liability in 2013

Increased use in GL Project Wrap-ups

Construction management (at risk) will become the preferred-delivery method. The benefits of collaboration are widely recognized. Preconstruction services directed at identifying project improvements and savings differentiate contractors, and

superior performance often results in an advantage during selection.

Many contractors are ill-prepared to make the transition to a professional services mindset.

The general contractor mindset is pervasive, even among many construction managers. Business development efforts are often misdirected towards acquiring new clients/customers rather than keeping

existing ones.

Procurement and Risk Management Trends

Page 17: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 17

Micro Drivers

Energy Market

Public Private Partnerships

Green Construction

Technology

Population / Demographics

Seasonality Sensitivity

Page 18: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 18

• The U.S. power industry is quickly shifting investment away from traditional fossil fuels.

• After 2015, when compliance goals are reached for foundational coal facilities, expect reduced spending on maintenance and rehab-related work on existing coal facilities and increased spending in new natural gas construction.

48%

7%

21%

20%4%

Coal

Hydro

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Renewable

IGCC Coal

21%

6%

40%

21%

11% 1%

2011

2035

Shale Basin Locations• Shale basin locations will heavily influence new construction in

natural gas infrastructure across the country. The map below indicates current shale play locations.

U.S. Markets Construction OverviewPower

Source: Scott Madden, FMI, Black & Veatch (above); EIA, FMI (right)

Page 19: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 19

Sources: EIA, University of Utah’s Metropolitan Research Center and Brookings Mountain West

U.S. Major Oil and Shale Plays Overlaid with Concentrations of Economic Activity

Page 20: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 20

Public Private Partnerships

Potential for P3 in the U.S.Source: FMI Corporation

Six keys to successful P3 include:• Conducive statutory

and political environment

• Adequately organized public sector structure

• Detailed business plan and contract

• Guaranteed revenue stream

• Strong stakeholder support

• Careful consideration of partners

Page 21: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 21

Public Private Partnerships – Legislation in States

“Public-private partnerships introduce significant efficiency and reliability, perhaps the most compelling argument for their use. They are also intrinsically transparent. As such, they have earned a strong reputation for the ability to deliver projects on time and without the typical cost overruns that plague many multiyear infrastructure projects—especially when multiple administrations, each with their own priorities, come and go during the lifespan of a project.” PWC

Clear Drivers:• States with PPP

legislation driving big infrastructure - spurs growth

• Robust in South and West

• Collaborative state agencies with budget shortfalls

Page 22: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 22

Green Construction Trends

• Green building, energy efficiency and corporate sustainability are becoming mainstream.

• Increased public awareness in energy efficiency will drive green construction, including increased investment in technology and building improvements across the industry.

• Green construction will support a spur in renovation and retrofit construction over the next five to eight years.

• Related technologies (e.g., metering) will continue to be re-invented over the next five to eight years.

• Familiarity and expertise with alternative-energy technologies are required.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Cum. LEED Reg. X10% Cum. LEED v.2 Cert'sCum. LEED area, MMSF

Coun

t

2005 2008 2013 $-

$20 $40 $60 $80

$100 $120 $140 $160

Lower Market Size Upper Market Size

$ in

Bill

ions

ID

AZ

UT

MT

WY

NM

CO

AL

FL

SC

TN

KY

INOH

NC

SD

KS

NE

MN

WI

IA

IL

MO

AR

MS

OK

ND

OR

CA NV

WA

PA

ME

VA

NY

CT

WV

MDNJ

VT

NH

MA

DE

RI

LA

MI

GA

TX

LEED Certified and Registered ProjectsSource: USGBC

Green Construction Intensity IndexSource: FMI Corporation

Green Construction Market OpportunitySource: McGraw-Hill Construction

$10

$49

$140

Page 23: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 23

Impact of Social Media

• Three out of four Americans use social technology (Forrester, The Growth of Social Technology Adoption, 2008)

• Social sites – 4th most popular online activity, ahead of personal email (Nielsen, Global Faces & Networked Places, 2009)

• Time spent on social networks growing at 3x overall internet rate2005200620072008200920102011

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Social networking site use by age group, 2005 - 2011

18-29

30-49

50-64

65+

Sources: Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project surveys

Page 24: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 24

84%

BIM and Prefabrication/Modular Building Methods

76%

90%

Prefabrication and Modular Building MethodsSource: McGraw-Hill

We currently use BIM …

In one year's time we will use BIM …

In three year's time we will use BIM …

In five year's time we will use BIM …

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

For all projects For the majority of projectsFor a minority of projects

Increasing use of Building Information ModelingSource: NBS

Contractors

% of users, 2009

% of users, 2013

% of non-users, 2009

% of non-users, 2013

76%

90%98%

98%

Architects

Engineers

90%99%

Page 25: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 25

Availability of Mid-Management: The Problem Is Demographics

Between 2005 and 2010, Census Bureau data indicates that:15 to 24 year-old age group increased by one million25 to 44 year-old age group decreased by 436,00045 to 64 year-old age group increased by 8.2 million

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Page 26: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 26

Smaller Families

17901890

19901930

19401950

19551960

19651970

19751980

19851990

19952000

20032004

20052006

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Average number of children per household has fallen below the replacement rate.

1960:3.65

2009:2.05

Household size, Percent of all U.S. households

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

3 or more persons

2 persons

1 person

Page 27: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 27

Concentrations of Population and Economic Activity

Puget Sound

Wasatch Range

Willamette

Sierra Pacific

Southern California

Las Vegas

Sun Corridor

Front Range

Dallas/ Fort Worth

Central Texas

Houston

Twin Cities

Chicago

Michigan Corridor

Ohio Valley

Steel Corridor

AtlantaCarolina

Central Florida Florida

Atlantic

Chesapeake

New York/ Philadelphia

New England

Southwest

Sierra Pacific

Cascadia

Twin CitiesMountain

Megalopolis

Piedmont

Florida

Great Lakes

Texas Triangle

Sources: University of Utah’s Metropolitan Research Center and Brookings Mountain West

They are staying, growing and coming….but NM stagnant or losing

Page 28: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 28

NRCI-ABI Comparison Third Quarter 2013

12/31/2

007

2/29/2

008

4/30/2

008

6/30/2

008

8/31/2

008

10/30/2

008

12/31/2

008

2/28/2

009

4/30/2

009

6/30/2

009

8/31/2

009

10/30/2

009

12/31/2

009

2/28/2

010

4/30/2

010

6/30/2

010

8/31/2

010

10/30/2

010

12/31/2

010

2/28/2

011

4/30/2

011

6/30/2

011

8/31/2

011

10/30/2

011

12/31/2

011

2/24/2

012

4/21/2

012

6/21/2

012

8/21/2

012

10/26/2

012

12/21/2

012

2/21/2

013

4/21/2

013

6/23/2

013

8/24/2

013

10/23/2

01320.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

NRCI and ABI Compared

NRCI ABI

Short Term Sensitivity…post recession

Page 29: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 29

Market Outlook

US Outlook New Mexico Outlook

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

FMI Construction Put in Place, Estimated for the United States

Total Residential Total Nonresidential Buildings Total Nonbuilding Structures

Mill

ions

of C

urre

nt D

olla

rs

Page 30: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 30

Note on Residential….20

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

$$50

$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450$500

Single Family Multifamily

Billi

ons

Source: FMI Fourth Quarter Outlook 2013

We are watching this market closely as some indicators are fluctuating. Growth in 2013 for Single Family of 28% but will flatten to 18% in 2014 and beyond. Multi-family will flatten in 2014 from 18% to 11%.

Page 31: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 31

U.S. Markets Construction Overview

Annual spending by market sectorConstruction put in place (millions of current dollars)

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

20132015

2017 $-

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

Residential Nonresidential BuildingNonbuilding Structures 2005 2017

Residential 56% 42%

Nonresidential 31% 37%

Nonbuilding 13% 21%

Sector share of spendingIndication of shifting priorities … needs vs. wants?

Residential’s Loss is Nonresidential and Nonbuilding’s Gain

Page 32: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 32

US Market Outlook

Millions of current dollars, Q4 2013 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Single Family 109,620 131,380 168,395 198,469 231,368 263,814 294,415Multi Family 17,821 26,293 36,227 46,713 52,350 57,353 60,869Improvements* 125,217 128,850 133,648 137,129 143,192 149,472 155,814Total Residential 252,658 286,523 338,270 382,310 426,910 470,640 511,099 Percent Change YoY 1% 13% 18% 13% 12% 10% 9%

Lodging 9,129 11,423 13,430 14,739 16,160 17,102 17,986Office 36,011 38,433 38,749 39,927 41,841 44,677 47,104Commercial 43,386 46,303 48,508 50,720 54,753 58,505 62,284Health Care 40,204 41,797 41,726 43,370 45,770 49,611 54,120Educational 84,985 84,618 81,325 84,344 88,522 94,023 100,510Religious 4,239 3,768 3,421 3,505 3,618 3,774 3,972Public Safety 10,407 10,295 9,752 10,049 10,417 11,005 11,446Amusement and Recreation 15,995 14,977 15,310 15,704 16,686 18,085 19,512Transportation 34,737 38,210 42,791 45,556 47,866 49,809 51,755Communication 17,685 17,528 16,305 16,553 17,434 18,256 19,069Manufacturing 39,660 46,850 48,722 51,867 55,337 59,379 63,602Total Nonresidential Buildings 336,438 354,202 360,038 376,335 398,405 424,225 451,360 Percent Change YoY -3% 5% 2% 5% 6% 6% 6%

Power 75,185 94,068 96,920 101,415 108,531 118,761 129,032Highway and Street 79,322 80,517 79,653 80,080 81,148 83,066 84,916Sewage and Waste Disposal 22,710 22,066 21,485 21,859 22,410 23,417 24,492Water Supply 14,163 13,227 14,207 14,702 15,179 15,824 16,272Conservation and Development 7,538 6,350 6,281 6,347 6,454 6,667 6,876Total Nonbuilding Structures 198,918 216,228 218,546 224,403 233,721 247,735 261,588 Percent Change YoY -5% 9% 1% 3% 4% 6% 6%

Total Put in Place $788,014 $856,953 $916,854 $983,049 $1,059,037 $1,142,600 $1,224,047 Percent Change YoY -2% 9% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7%

Page 33: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 33

US Market Outlook

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$210.1 $217.1 $209.0 $198.9 $216.2 $218.5 $224.4 $233.7 $247.7 $261.6

$499.7$432.2

$346.5 $336.4 $354.2 $360.0 $376.3 $398.4 $424.2 $451.4

$357.7

$253.9$249.1 $252.7

$286.5$338.3

$382.3$426.9

$470.6$511.1

Residential Nonresidential Nonbuilding

Billi

on, C

urre

nt D

olla

rs

Total CPiP $1,068 $903 $805 $788 $857 $917 $983 $1,059 $1,143 $1,224

YoY Change -7.4% -15.4% -10.9% -2.1% 8.7% 7.0% 7.2% 7.7% 7.9% 7.1%

…History Forecast…

Page 34: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 34

New Mexico Construction Outlook

Millions of current dollars, Q4 2013 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Single Family 604 640 688 780 967 1,125 1,277Multi Family 94 113 130 160 190 213 230Improvements* 580 567 584 610 640 682 723Total Residential 1,278 1,320 1,403 1,549 1,798 2,020 2,229 Percent Change YoY - 3% 6% 10% 16% 12% 10%

Lodging 51 55 67 75 83 89 94Office 200 207 205 214 226 240 252Commercial 240 249 257 272 295 314 334Health Care 223 225 221 233 247 266 290Educational 471 455 439 462 488 515 550Religious 23 21 20 21 22 23 24Public Safety 65 62 64 72 89 72 75Amusement and Recreation 89 81 87 93 85 91 98Transportation 192 200 210 218 226 234 243Communication 98 94 86 89 94 98 102Manufacturing 220 226 233 247 262 277 291Total Nonresidential Buildings 1,871 1,874 1,890 1,996 2,117 2,219 2,354 Percent Change YoY - 0% 1% 6% 6% 5% 6%

Power 538 618 627 654 680 709 745Highway and Street 568 552 565 571 576 588 597Sewage and Waste Disposal 163 151 146 150 157 165 175Water Supply 101 91 89 93 98 104 112Conservation and Development 54 44 41 44 47 49 51Total Nonbuilding Structures 1,424 1,456 1,468 1,512 1,558 1,615 1,680 Percent Change YoY - 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 4%

Total Put in Place $4,573 $4,650 $4,760 $5,058 $5,473 $5,855 $6,263 Percent Change YoY - 2% 2% 6% 8% 7% 7%

Page 35: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 35

New Mexico Construction Outlook

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$1.5$1.7 $1.6 $1.4 $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 $1.6 $1.6 $1.7

$2.8 $2.4$2.0

$1.9 $1.9 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 $2.2 $2.4

$2.1$1.8

$1.5$1.3 $1.3 $1.4

$1.5$1.8

$2.0$2.2

Residential Nonresidential Nonbuilding

Billi

on, C

urre

nt D

olla

rs

Total CPiP $6.4 $6.0 $5.1 $4.6 $4.7 $4.8 $5.1 $5.5 $5.9 $6.3

YoY - NM - -6% -15% -10% 2% 2% 6% 8% 7% 7%

YoY Mtn West -27% -17% -4% 9% 8% 11% 10% 8% 8%

…History Forecast…

Page 36: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 36

New Mexico / Albuquerque Metric ComparisonA few to pay attention to….areas of improvement that drive the industry

Millennial’s (Ages 20-34)Source: PWC Emerging Trends in Real Estate

AREA (Rank) 5-Year Growth

Albuquerque (46) -1.4%

Phoenix (25) 11.3%

Dallas (5) 8.7%

Denver (11) 7.3%Reverse the trend to positive growth – attract opportunity for the next generation

Overall Job Growth 2014Source: Pew Research Charitable Trust, FMI, ENR, BLS

AREA (Rank)

Overall Construction

New Mexico (40) 1.25% 2.1%

Arizona (2) 3.08% 4.7%

Texas (3) 2.75% 3.5%

Colorado (4) 3.67% 3.8%States above 2% overall generally have favorable construction economies…construction growth can add 1-3% to the overall %

Public / Federal Jobs as % of TotalSource: UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research

AREA % of Total Jobs

New Mexico 32%

Arizona 22%

Texas 19%

Colorado 21%Typically follows the construction spending for public versus private money – NM relies heavily on public $

LEED Certifications Through 2013Source: NGBC

AREA Ranking

New Mexico 26

Arizona 17

Texas 10

Colorado 8ABQ is in top 50 and NM schools ranked 10th! Increase intensity of the green / LEED market.

Vacancy Rates – Office / CommercialSource: CBRE, FMI

AREA 2012 2013

Albuquerque 19% 19%

Phoenix 27% 21%

Dallas 19% 15%

Denver 16% 14%Magic number is below 15% - building traditionally picks up speed and need. US is ~ 17% currently.

Average Hourly Construction WageSource: BLS

AREA 2013 Avg Wage ($)

NM / ABQ $18.71 / $18.61

Phoenix $19.30

Dallas $17.54

Denver $21.31Higher wage MAY attract in the short term. But stability, opportunity and culture are major issues now.

Grow Diversify Compete

Fill Innovate Future

Page 37: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 37

Bright Spots – Looking Forward

Keep up Technology,

Healthcare and Federal Work

Tourism and Consumer

Spending is UP

Keep focus and grow energy the segment

Diversify and take advantage

of location

New Mexico

Growth in the Energy Segment

and Related Effects

Housing Market Rebound and Related Effect

Commercial Growth and

Manufacturing Reshoring

Positive Investment Outlook for

many Stakeholders

US Market

BOTTOM LINE – The outlook is positive, opportunity exists, inflation is under control and investing is growing….but issues exist that challenge the industry and “cautiously optimistic” is still the tone.

Page 38: © 2013 FMI Corporation1 U.S. Markets Construction Overview and Industry Trends Bryan Kucinski, PE Presented to: New Mexico NAIOP February 24 th, 2014

© 2013 FMI Corporation 38

Thank You!

At FMI, Bryan works within the building and construction products community as well as the private equity segment. Bryan’s utilizes various FMI services to passionately build these organizations, associations and related stakeholders within these stakeholder segments. He focuses on strategic research, market strategy, organizational development, training and leadership improvements.

Bryan’s entire career has been spent in the construction and engineering industry. Working as a private AEC consultant, he gained experience as a project engineer, project manager and construction manager. His experience ranged across a wide variety of projects within the Infrastructure, Commercial, Private and Federal sectors.

Bryan progressed from AEC engineering practices to the building and construction product industry just prior to joining FMI. He has worked for Contech Construction Products, Hilti North America and Tensar International. Spanning these organizations, Bryan held roles and responsibilities that include technical field sales, sales management, marketing management, business development, sales training, leadership training, project leadership, team leadership and strategy development. Within these roles, Bryan was credited for over proportional sales growth, multi-million dollar marketing strategies, numerous product launches, authored training programs, structured and lead sales teams as well as organizational development projects. Through this experience, Bryan gained a passion for strong strategic direction, the development of people and successful growth based on creativity, process, leadership and vision.

Bryan is a member of various industry organizations having also served as committee member and an officer. Passionate about non-profit service, Bryan has been a board member for organizations such as ManeGait Therapeutic Horsemanship and Children’s Relief International. He has travelled globally for both work and personal non-profit projects. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Civil Engineering from Texas Tech University and is a Registered Professional Engineer.

Bryan S. Kucinski, PEConsultant – Manager of Strategic Accounts

Bryan Kucinski, PEFMI Corporation210 University Blvd.Suite 800Denver, CO 80206Tel: 303-398-7225Cell: 720-425-9896Email: [email protected]: www.fminet.com