© 2014 THE EDUCATION TRUST Where Are We? Why Does it Matter? California State University Leaders Long Beach, CA October, 2014 Copyright 2014 The Education

© 2014 THE EDUCATION TRUST

Where Are We? Why Does it Matter?California State University Leaders

Long Beach, CAOctober, 2014

Copyright 2014 The Education Trust

Access to Success in America:


America: Two Powerful Stories


1. Land of Opportunity:

Work hard, and you can become anything you want to be.


2. Generational Advancement:

Through hard work, each generation of parents can assure a better life — and better education — for their children.


These stories animated hopes and dreams of people here at home

And drew countless immigrants to our shores


Yes, America was often intolerant…

And they knew the “Dream” was a work in progress.


We were:

• The first to provide universal high school;• The first to build public universities;• The first to build community colleges;• The first to broaden access to college, through

GI Bill, Pell Grants, …


1920 1940 1960

1980 2000 2012

Percent of U.S. adults with a high school diploma


Percent of U.S. adults with a B.A. or more

4%

1920

6%

1940

11%

1960

23%

1980

29%

2000

33%

2012


Progress was painfully slow, especially for people of color.

But year by year, decade by decade…


Percent of U.S. adults with a high school diploma, by race 192019401960198020002012


Percent of U.S. adults with a B.A. or more, by race

192019401960198020002012

© 2014 THE EDUCATION TRUST© 2014 THE EDUCATION TRUST

Then, beginning in the eighties, inequality started growing again.


In the past four years alone, 95% of all income gains have gone to the

top 1%.

Source: Stiglitz, “Inequality is a Choice,” New York Times, October 13, 2013.


In 2012:

• In 2012, the top 5% of Americans took home 22% of the nation’s income; the top .1% took home 11%.

• And the bottom 20% took home just 3%.

Source: DeNavas-Walt, Proctor, & Smith, “Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2012,” U.S Census Bureau, September 2013; Stiglitz, “Inequality is a Choice,” New York Times, October 13, 2013.


Chile

Mex

icoUni

ted

Stat

esTu

rkey

Israe

l

Italy

Esto

nia

Spain

Irelan

dGr

eece

Polan

dSw

itzer

land

Belgi

umCa

nada

Slove

nia

Hung

ary

Aust

riaGe

rman

yFin

land

Norw

aySw

eden

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Gin

i Coe

ffici

ent

Note: Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates total income equality and 1 indicates total income inequality.

Instead of being the most equal, the U.S. has the third highest income inequality among OECD

nations.

United States

Source: United Nations, U.N. data, http://data.un.org/DocumentData.aspx?q=gini&id=271: 2011

http://data.un.org/DocumentData.aspx?q=gini&id=271


Median Wealth of White Families

20 X that of African Americans

18 X that of Latinos

Source: Rakesh Kochhar, Richard Fry, and Paul Taylor, “Twenty-to-One: Wealth Gaps Rise to Record Highs Between Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics,” Pew Social & Demographic Trends, 2011.


Not just wages and wealth, but social mobility as well.


U.S. intergenerational mobility was increasing until 1980, but has sharply declined since.

Source: Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder. Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the U.S.,1940 to 2000. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP 2005-12: Dec. 2005.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.4 0.35 0.34 0.330000000000007

0.46

0.580000000000001

Earn

ings

Ela

stici

ty

The falling elasticity meant increased economic mobility until 1980. Since then, the elasticity has risen, and mobility has slowed.


Source:

The US now has one of lowest rates of intergenerational mobility

United Kingdom

Italy United States

France Spain Germany Sweden Australia Canada Finland Norway Denmark0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.5 0.48 0.470.41 0.4

0.3200000000000010.27 0.26

0.19 0.18 0.17 0.15

Earn

ings

Ela

stici

ty

Cross-country examples of the link between father and son wages

Source: Corak, Miles. Chasing the Same Dream, Climbing Different Ladders. Economic Mobility Project; Pew Charitable Trusts, 2010.


At macro level, better and more equal education is not the only answer.

But at the individual level, it really is.


Overwhelming message about what matters in turning this

around?

Education. “Among those who have finished four years of college, there is no

racial gap in economic mobility. Both whites and blacks experience very

high rates.”Source: Upward Intergenerational Mobility in the US. PewTrusts.


College Grads Earn More

Source: College Board, Education Pays, 2013, Figure 1.1: Median Earnings and Tax Payments of Full-Time Year-Round Workers Ages 25 and Older, by Education Level, 2011

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$21,000 $29,000 $32,900 $36,200 $45,100

$55,200 $70,700 $78,800

$4,100 $6,400

$7,500 $8,600

$11,400 $14,800

$20,300 $23,400

Taxes Paid After-Tax Earnings

Education Level

Med

ian

Earn

ings

($)

$25,100$35,400

$40,400 $44,800

$56,500

$70,000

$91,000$102,200


College Grads Less Likely to be Unemployed

Less than high school diploma

High school grad-uate

Some college or associate's degree

Bachelor's degree or higher

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

14.3%

9.6%8.2%

4.3%

Unemployment Rate (August 2011)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table A-4, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04htm

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04htm


They also stand out on the other things we value.


College graduates more likely to vote

Less than high school

High school/GED Some college/as-sociate's degree


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

23%29%

50%

60%

Percent of US Citizens Aged 18-24 Who Voted in the 2012 Presiden-tial Election by Education Level

Source: Education Pays 2013, The College Board Note: Data include both those who are and are not registered to vote.


Less than high school

High school Some college or associate's degree


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

9%17%

29%

42%

Percent of Adults 25 and Over Who Volunteered in 2012 by Education Level

Note: Data represent percentage of total population that reported volunteering from September 2008 to September 2009

College graduates more likely to volunteer

Source: Education Pays 2013, The College Board


Source:

College Grads of all races far more likely to be in “Very Good” or “Excellent” Health

Black Latino American Indian White0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

27.3

15.9

29.4 30.6

56.4 59 59.2

73.3

High School Dropout College Graduate

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Commission for a Healthier America, 2009


High school or less Some college Bachelor's degree Advanced degree0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

37%45%

54%60%

Percentage of respondents reporting themselves to be in excellent mental health

Source: Gallup, “Strong Relationship Between Income and Mental Health” (2007)

College Grads Even Have Better Mental Health


What schools and colleges do, in other words, is hugely important to our economy, our

democracy, and our society.


There is one road up, and that road runs through us.


So, how are we doing?


Over past 30 years, we’ve made a lot of progress on the

access side.

n/a


Immediate College-Going Up

Source: NCES, The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table 302.10).Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in 2-year or 4-year college the October after completing high school

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20120.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Perc

enta

ge o

f Hig

h Sc

hool

Gra

duat

es E

n-ro

lled

in C

olle

ge th

e Fa

ll Aft

er G

radu

ation


College-going is up for all groups.

NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-3) and The Condition of Education 2011 (Table A-21-2).


Immediate College-Going Increasing for All Racial/Ethnic Groups: 1972 to 2012

Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high schoolSource: NCES, The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table 302.20).

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

African American Latino White

Perc

enta

ge o

f Hig

h Sc

hool

Gra

duat

es E

n-ro

lled

in C

olle

ge th

e Fa

ll Aft

er G

radu

ation


College-Going Generally Increasing for All Income Groups

Source: NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-1) and The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table 302.30).Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Low-Income High-Income

Perc

enta

ge o

f Hig

h Sc

hool

Gra

duat

es E

n-ro

lled

in C

olle

ge th

e Fa

ll Aft

er G

radu

ation


But though college going up for low-income

students…


Low-Income Students Today Still Not Reaching the College-going Rate for High-Income Students

in 1972…

Note: Data for black, Hispanic, and low-income represent two-year moving average because of small sample sizes.Source: NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-1) and The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table 302.30)

Low Income High Income

23%

64%

52%

82%

Percentage of high school graduates immediately enrolling in college, 1972-2012

19722012


But access isn’t the only issue:

There’s a question of access to what…


Low-Income Students and Students of Color Twice as Likely to Enter For-profit Colleges

Non-Pell recipient

Pell recipient

American Indian

Hispanic

Black

White

Asian

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

8

20

10

12

18

7

5

38

35

44

45

39

36

38

37

32

33

31

30

40

43

16

13

10

12

13

16

14

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

For Profit Public 2-Year Public 4-Year Private 4-Year OtherEd Trust analysis of IPEDS Fall enrollment, Fall 2012 (by race) and IPEDS Student Financial Aid survey,

2011-12 (by Pell recipient status). 41


IPEDS Enrollment Fall 2011 First Look (December 2012); Majority staff calculation of data provided by U.S. Department of Education, 2008-09 in “Emerging Risk?: An Overview of Growth, Spending, Student Debt and Unanswered Questions in For-Profit Higher Education.” Senate HELP Committee. 24 June 2010 (page 4); and Ed Trust analysis of FY 2009 data in “Institutional Default Rate Comparison of FY 2007, 2008, and 2009 Cohort Default Rates.” http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d114.pdf (page 8)

Access to what?For-profit college companies 11% of enrollments 24% of Pell Grants and

federal student loan dollars Lowest degree completion rates of any 4-year sector 48% of federal student

loan defaults

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d114.pdf


And what about graduation in colleges more generally?


Black, Latino, and American Indian Freshmen Complete College at Lower Rates Than Other Students

6 -year bachelor’s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen,Fall 2006 cohort at 4-year institutions

Source: NCES (December 2013). Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, 2004-2009, First Look (Provisional Data) Table 3.

White Black Latino Asian American Indian0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

63%

40%52%

71%

40%Gra

duati

on R

ates

(%) Overall rate: 59%


Graduation rates at public community colleges

White Black Latino Asian American Indian

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

24%13% 18%

28%18%

Gra

duati

on R

ates

(%)

3 - year completion rates (associate degrees and certificates) for first-time, full-time freshmen,

Fall 2009 cohort at public two-year institutions

Overall rate: 21.2%

Source: NCES (Dec. 2013). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, 2004-2009, First Look (Provisional Data) Table 3.


Chance of attaining a bachelor’s degree

within six years, among students who aspire to a

Bachelors degree and begin at community college?

n/a


Series10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

14%

Bach

elor

’s A

ttai

nmen

t Rat

e (%

)

Only 14 percent.

Percent of students who started at a community college intending to earn a Bachelor’s in 2003 and

earned a BA degree by 2009

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2003-04 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:04/06).


Add it all up…


Different groups of young Americans obtain degrees at

very different rates.

n/a


Whites attain bachelor’s degrees at nearly twice the rate of blacks and almost three times the rate of Hispanics

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2013

White African American Latino

40%

20%16%

Bachelor’s Degree Attainment of Young Adults (25-29-year-olds), 2013


Young adults from high-income families are 7 times more likely to earn bachelor’s degrees by age 24

Highest income quartile Lowest income quartile0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

79%

11%

Perc

ent w

ith B

ache

lor’

s D

egre

e by

Age

24

7xTom Mortenson, Bachelor’s Degree Attainment by age 24 by Family Income Quartiles, 1970 to 2010, Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2012.


These rates threaten health of our democracy.

But even for those who don’t care much about that, they are particularly worrisome, given which groups are growing…and which

aren’t.


Changing demographics demand greater focus on underrepresented populations.

-5,516

2,312

31,337

4,431669

-9%

15%

137%

96%

50%

Projected Popula-tion Growth, Ages 20-24, 2010-2050

Note: Projected Population Growth, Ages 0-24, 2010-2050 Source: National Population Projections, U.S. Census Bureau. Released 2008; NCHEMS ,Adding It Up, 2007

Population Increase, Ages 0-24, (in thousands)

Percentage Increase, Ages 0-24,


Not surprisingly, our international lead is slipping away


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and

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Irela

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bour

gEs

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itzer

land

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enBe

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land

Denm

ark

Neth

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nds

Spai

nOEC

D av

erag

eFr

ance

Chile

Germ

any

Gree

ceSlo

veni

aPo

land

Hung

ary

Austr

iaSlo

vak R

epub

licCz

ech

Repu

blic

Mex

icoPo

rtuga

lIta

lyTu

rkey

Braz

il

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

42%

32%

Percentage of residents aged 25-64 with a postsecondary degree

Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs)

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2013 (2011 data).

We’re relatively strong in educational attainment

United States

OECD Average


Kore

aJa

pan

Cana

daIre

land

Unite

d Ki

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mNo

rway

Luxe

mbo

urg

New Ze

alan

dIsr

ael

Austr

alia

Unite

d St

ates

Fran

ceSw

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Belg

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Chile

Switz

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ther

land

sFin

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Hung

ary

Germ

any

Portu

gal

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Czec

h Re

publ

icM

exico

Austr

iaIta

lyTu

rkey

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

43%39%

Percentage of residents aged 25-34 with a postsecondary degree



United States OECD Average

Our world standing drops to 11th for younger adults


Kore

aPo

land

Fran

ceIre

land

Chile

Luxe

mbo

urg

Portu

gal

Norw

aySp

ain

Belg

ium

Swed

enSlo

veni

aJa

pan

Unite

d Ki

ngdo

mNe

ther

land

sOEC

D av

erag

eCa

nada

Austr

alia

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Italy

Turk

eyGr

eece

Hung

ary

New Ze

alan

dSw

itzer

land

Czec

h Re

publ

icDe

nmar

kIce

land

Mex

icoUn

ited

Stat

esAu

stria

Finla

ndIsr

ael

Germ

any

Esto

nia

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

10%2%

Difference in percentage of residents aged 45-54 and those aged 25-34 with a postsecondary degree



OECD Average United States

We’re near the bottom in intergenerational progress


California?


Adults Ages 25-64 with at least a Bachelor’s Degree, 2011:California Slightly Above National Average

Mas

sach

usett

sCo

nnec

ticut

Colo

rado

Virg

inia

New Yo

rkRh

ode I

sland

Was

hing

ton

Calif

orni

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hHa

waii US

Penn

sylva

nia

North

Dak

ota

Iow

aW

iscon

sinSo

uth

Dako

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xas

Florid

aAl

aska

New M

exico

Tenn

esse

eIn

dian

aAl

abam

aNev

ada

Arka

nsas

Wes

t Virg

inia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

29.9%

Perc

ent w

ith B

ache

lor’

s Deg

ree

U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey data from NCHEMS Information Center.


Adults Ages 25-34 with at least a Bachelor’s Degree, 2011:California Slightly Below National Average

Mas

sach

usett

sNew

Jers

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nnec

ticut

Verm

ont

Illino

isNew

Ham

pshi

reRh

ode I

sland

Iow

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rask

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ashi

ngto

nM

aine

Sout

h Da

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onsin

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nOhi

oGe

orgia

Mich

igan

Tenn

esse

eW

yom

ing

Florid

aOkla

hom

aId

aho

Alas

kaW

est V

irgin

iaNew

Mex

icoNev

ada

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

31.1%

Perc

ent w

ith B

ache

lor’

s Deg

ree

U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey data from NCHEMS Information Center


Average Annual Percent of Adults 25-64 with at Least a Bachelor’s Degree, 2008-2010:

California 5th Largest Gap between URM and Whites

Colo

rado

Conn

ectic

utCa

lifor

nia

Arizo

naNew

York

Nebra

ska

Mon

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Kans

asId

aho

Mas

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ndNew

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orgia

Miss

issip

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iscon

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ada

Min

neso

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rida

Delaw

are

North

Dak

ota

Tenn

esse

eM

issou

riIn

dian

aM

aine

Verm

ont

New H

amps

hire

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

11.7%

Perc

enta

ge P

oint

Gap

, Whi

te-M

inor

ity

2008-2010 Three-Year American Community Survey (ACS) data from NCHEMS Information Center.


WHAT’S GOING ON?

Many in higher education would like to believe that these patterns are mostly a function of lousy high schools and stingy

federal and state policymakers.


They are not all wrong.



Low Income and Minority Students Continue to be Clustered in Schools

where we spend less…


Source:

National Inequities in State and Local Revenue Per Student

GapHigh Poverty vs. Low Poverty Districts

–$773 per student

High Minority vs. Low Minority Districts

–$1,122 per student

Education Trust analyses based on U.S. Dept of Education and U.S. Census Bureau data for 2005-06


…expect less


Source:

Students in Poor Schools Receive ‘A’s for Work That Would Earn ‘Cs’ in Affluent Schools

A B C D0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

87

56

41

21

35 34

22

11

Seventh Grade Math

Low-poverty schoolsHigh-poverty schools

Perc

entil

e –

CTBS

4

Prospects (ABT Associates, 1993), in “Prospects: Final Report on Student Outcomes”, PES, DOE, 1997


…teach them less


African American Latino White Asian0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

35%

68%63%

94%

Perc

enta

ge o

f stu

dent

s who

wer

e in

the

top

two

quin

-til

es o

f mat

h pe

rfor

man

ce in

fift

h gr

ade

and

in a

lgeb

ra

in e

ight

h gr

ade

Source: NCES, “Eighth-Grade Algebra: Findings from the Eighth-Grade Round of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K)” (2010).

Even African-American students with high math performance in fifth grade are unlikely

to be placed in algebra in eighth grade


Students of color are less likely to attend high schools that offer calculus.

Schools with the Most Black and Latino Students

Schools with the Fewest Black and Latino Students

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

29%

55%

Source: U.S. Department of Education Office for Civil Rights , Civil Rights Data Collection

Percent of Schools Offering Calculus


…and assign them our least qualified teachers.


Source:

Core classes in high-poverty and high-minority secondary schools are more likely to be taught by out-of-field teachers

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

41%

30%

17% 16%

Perc

enta

ge o

f Cla

sses

Tau

ght b

y Te

ache

rs

With

Nei

ther

Cer

tifica

tion

nor M

ajor

The Education Trust, Core Problems: Out-of-Field Teaching Persists in Key Academic Courses and High-Poverty Schools, (2008)

Note: Data are for secondary-level core academic classes (Math, Science, Social Studies, English) across United States.High-poverty ≥75% of students eligible for free/reduced-price lunch. Low-poverty school ≤15% of students eligible. High-minority ≥ 75% students non-white. Low-minority ≤ 10% students non-white.

High Poverty

Low Poverty

High Minority

Low Minority


Source:

Students at high-minority schools are more likely to be taught by novice teachers

Low Minority High Minority0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

13%

22%

Perc

enta

ge o

f Nov

ice

Teac

hers

Analysis of 2003-2004 Schools and Staffing Survey data by Richard Ingersoll, University of Pennsylvania (2007)

Note: Novice teachers are those with three years or fewer experience. High-minority ≥ 75% students non-white. Low-minority ≤ 10% students non-white.


Los Angeles: Black, Latino students have fewer highly effective teachers, more weak

ones.

Latino and black students are:

3X as

likely to get low- effectiveness teachers

½ as

likely to get highly effective teachers

READING/LANGUAGE ARTS

Source: Education Trust—West, Learning Denied, 2012.



Source:

Since 1999, large gains for all groups of students,

especially students of color

1971* 1975* 1980* 1984* 1988* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* 2004 2008 2012150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

9 Year Olds – NAEP LTT Reading


Aver

age

Scal

e Sc

ore

*Denotes previous assessment formatNational Center for Education Statistics, “The Nation's Report Card: Trends in Academic Progress 2012”


Source:

Since 1999, performance rising for all groups of students

1973* 1978* 1982* 1986* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* 2004 2008 2012160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

9 Year Olds – NAEP LTT Math


Aver

age

Scal

e Sc

ore




Source:

Reading: Not much gap narrowing since 1988.

1971* 1975* 1980* 1984* 1988* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* 2004 2008 2012220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

17 Year Olds – NAEP LTT Reading


Aver

age

Scal

e Sc

ore



Source:

Math: Not much gap closing since 1990.

1973* 1978* 1982* 1986* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* 2004 2008 2012240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

17 Year Olds – NAEP LTT Math


Aver

age

Scal

e Sc

ore




So, too, are misguided government aid policies


College costs have increased at 4.5 times the rate of inflation

College Tuition and Fees

Medical Care

Median Family Income

Consumer Price Index

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

570%

300%

146% 125%

Perc

ent G

row

th R

ate

Curr

ent D

olla

rs, 1

982-

2011

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Average CPI Index, 2011: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid11av.pdf; Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2012; Table F-6.

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid11av.pdf


Federal Pell Grants have failed to keep pace with rising college costs

Public 2-Year Public 4-Year Private 4-Year0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% 99%

77%

36%

52%

31%

14%

1979-80 2012-1385

Total Cost of Attendance Covered by Maximum Pell Grant Award

American Council on Education (2007). “ Status Report on the Pell Grant Program, 2007” and College Board, Trends in Student Aid, 2013.


Why? Not because we’re not spending a lot more on student

aid.But, rather, because we’ve changed

who gets those dollars.


The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2013.

Evan as many in Washington claim that the estimated $32.3 billion spent on the Pell

Grant program in 2012 is “unsustainable”…


$21 billion in federal dollars were diverted in FY13 to education tax benefits,

many of which benefit institutions or wealthier students.

Source: Fiscal Year 2014 Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the U.S. Government, Office of Management and Budget, Table 16-1. Estimates of Total Income Tax Expenditures for Fiscal Years 2012-2018.


51% of savings from tuition tax credits go to middle- and upper-income families

49%51%

Distribution of Education Tax Credits by Adjusted Gross Income

Low-income ($0-49,999)

Middle and upper-income ($50,000+)

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2013.


88% of savings from tuition tax deductions go to middle- and upper-income families

12%

88%

Distribution of Tax Deduction Savings by Adjusted Gross Income

Low-income ($0-49,999)

Middle and upper-income ($50,000+)

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2013.


Pattern is the same at state level, even in tough times.

Source: Trends in Student Aid 2010, The College Board


Non-need-based grant aid now represents more than a quarter of all state grant aid

Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2013.

2010-11

92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%90% 90%

87% 86% 85% 83% 81%78% 76% 76% 77% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 72% 71%

74%

10% 10%13% 14% 15% 17% 19%

22% 24% 24% 23% 26% 27% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 29%26%

Need-Based and Non-Need-Based State Grants per Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Un-dergraduate Student, 1992-93 to 2011-12

Percentage Need-Based Percentage Non-Need-Based


Big Effects, too, from State Disinvestment in Public Higher Education.


We start out by spending less per student in the institutions

serving students with the biggest needs. Then, over the past few

years, we just cut mercilessly from there.


So yes, government policy is part of the problem, too.


But colleges and universities are not

unimportant actors in this drama of shrinking opportunity, either.

96


For one thing, the shifts away from poor students in institutional aid money are MORE PRONOUNCED than the shifts in government aid.

© 2014 THE EDUCATION TRUST98

In 2011, four-year public and private nonprofit colleges

spent over $21 billion on grant aid.

Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:12 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.

© 2014 THE EDUCATION TRUST99

But, they spent a lot of aid on students who didn’t need it…

Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:12 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.


Public 4-year colleges used to spend more than twice as much on needy students, but now spend more on wealthy students

1995 2012$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$340

$809

$124

$869

Lowest income quintile Highest income quintile

Insti

tutio

nal G

rant

Aid

at P

ublic

4-Y

ear

Insti

tutio

ns, 1

995-

2012

(in

mill

ions

)

Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:96, NPSAS:08, NPSAS:12 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.


1995 2012$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$721

$2,625

$605

$4,042

Lowest income quintile Highest income quintile

Insti

tutio

nal G

rant

Aid

at P

rivat

e N

FP

4-Ye

ar In

stitu

tions

, 199

5-20

12 (m

illio

ns)

Private nonprofit 4-year colleges used to spend more on low-income students, but now spend nearly twice as much on wealthy students

Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:96, NPSAS:08, NPSAS:12 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.


Source:

Low-income students must devote an amount equivalent to 76% of their family income

towards college costsFamily Income Percentile

Average Income

Average Cost of

Attendance

Average Expected

Family Contribution

(EFC)

Average Grant

Aid

Average Unmet Need After EFC and

Grant Aid

Average % of Income Required

to Pay Out-of-Pocket Expenses

21 – 40% $36,205 $29,345 $2,138 $12,246 $15,006 46%

61 – 80% $97,733 $30,719 $16,259 $6,842 $9,465 25%

Source: Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:12 using PowerStats, http://nces.ed.gov/datalab/. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates at public and private nonprofit four-year colleges

0 – 20% $12,783 $27,428 $13,565

41 – 60% $65,204 $29,804 $8,465

81 – 100% $185,819 $34,370 $6,041

$276 $13,591 76%

$8,059 $13,689 33%

$35,925 $5,281 17%

http://nces.ed.gov/datalab/


So it’s not all about the students or about government. What colleges do is important in who comes…and

who doesn’t.


Moreover, what colleges do also turns out to be very important in

whether students graduate or not.


Warning: I’m going to focus for the next

few minutes on IPEDS grad rates. Yes, we know those don’t tell us everything. But they do tell us

how we are doing with the easiest of our students.

n/a


College Completion Rates:4-Year Colleges

Fewer than 4 in 10 (38%) entering full-time freshmen obtain a bachelor’s degree from the same institution within 4 years.

Within six years of entry, that proportion rises to just under 6 in 10 (58%).

If you go beyond IPEDS, and look at graduation from ANY institution, number grows to about two-thirds.

Source: NCES (December 2013). Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, 2004-2009, First Look (Provisional Data) Table 4.


Source:

Many Four-Year Colleges Have Very High Graduation Rates and Many, Very Low

Ed Trust analysis of IPEDS Graduation Rates

0-5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30% 30-35% 35-40% 40-45% 45-50% 50-55% 55-60% 60-65% 65-70% 70-75% 75-80% 80-85% 85-90% 90-95% 95-100%

100%+0

50

100

150

200

250

Distribution of Graduation Rates (2012)6-year bachelor's completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen,

Fall 2006 cohort at 4-year institutions

Series1


Some of these differences are clearly attributable to differences in

student preparation and/or institutional mission.

n/a


Indeed, with enough data on both institutions and students, we can find a way to “explain” 70-80% of the variance among

institutions.

Source: Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset 2011.


EdTrust experience:“Our graduation rates are about the same as other institutions that serve similar students.”

n/a


But…when you dig underneath the averages, one thing is very

clear:

Some colleges are far more successful than their students’

“stats” would suggest.Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset


College Results Onlinewww.collegeresults.org


Research InstitutionsSimilar Students, Different Results

MedianSAT Size % Pell % URM

Overall Grad Rate

URM Grad Rate

Penn StateUniversity

1,195 37,763 16% 8.6% 86.7% 74.6 %

Indiana University

1,170 31,427 21% 8.0% 72.0% 52.1%

University of Minnesota

1,245 30,656 23% 7.6% 70.2% 44.4%

Purdue University

1,165 30,812 21% 6.9% 68.1% 54.1%

Source: College Results Online, 2013: www.collegeresults.org.


Research InstitutionsSimilar Students, Different Results

MedianSAT Size % Pell % URM

Overall Grad Rate

URM Grad Rate

Florida State University 1,185 29,291 28% 25.2% 73.8% 71%

University of Arizona 1,085 28,174 32% 23.8% 61.4% 53.1%



Masters Institutions – LargeSimilar Students, Different Results

MedianSAT Size % Pell

Overall Graduation

Rate

University of Northern Iowa 1,070 10,716 25% 66.7%

Montclair State University 1,010 12,975 37% 62.3%

EasternIllinois University 990 9,287 39% 59.3%

University of Wisconsin Whitewater 1,050 9,685 30% 53.9%



Historically Black CollegesSimilar Students, Different Results

MedianSAT Size % Pell

Overall Graduation Rate

Elizabeth City University 835 3,020 80% 43.7%

Delaware State University 875 3,167 59% 34.6%

Norfolk State University 865 5,373 65% 33.2%

University of ArkansasPine Bluff

780 3,096 82% 23%

Coppin State University 855 2,832 70% 14.7%



Some making fast progress in improving success for students of

color, some have closed gaps entirely.


Source:

Biggest Gainers in Success for Latino Students: Public Colleges and Universities

Advancing to Completion, 2012, The Education Trust.


Source:

Biggest Gainers in Success for Black Students: Public Colleges and Universities



Source:

Universities with No Black/White Graduation Rate Gaps



Bottom Line:

So yes, we have to keep working to improve our high schools;

And yes, government has to do its part; But we’ve got to focus on changing what our

colleges do, too.


…and that includes the CSU.


Source:

So far…• Big efforts on the access side have yielded

real results, with the system as a whole—and most campuses—looking more like the young people of California;

• Still can’t take your eye off the access side, because those numbers can easily slip—and because some campuses aren’t even close to doing their share;


Source:

• Through your Graduation Rate Initiative, you also made real strides—again, on most campuses—in improving student success.

• Overall success rates on most campuses still don’t match those of top peers and while success rates improved for all groups of students, gaps between groups did not narrow.


What can we learn from the fastest

gainers?

n/a


1. Their leaders make sure student success is a campus-

wide priority.

n/a


Improving student success isn’t all—or even mostly—about

programs.It’s about institutional culture that

values success and that accepts responsibility.

n/a


Successful leaders honor and tap into institutional culture to privilege student success


In fact, successful leaders consistently treat faculty as

problem solvers, not as problems to be solved.


2. They look at their data…and act.

Use of disaggregated data to spot problems and frame action is

pervasive.

n/a


Successful institutions don’t just aim at the final goal—graduation—they concentrate on each step

along the way, especially the early ones.

n/a


Keeping your eyes on both retention and credit

accumulation


First-Year Retention vs. Credit Accumulation The Silent Retention Problem

Fall ’00 Fall ’01 Fall ’02 Fall ’03 Fall ’04 Fall ’05 Fall ’06 Fall ’07 Fall ‘08 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

80% 82% 81% 83% 80% 81% 82% 83% 83%

22%27% 28%

33% 35%39%

49%

62%67%

% Retained % Retained and SophomoreGeorgia State University.


PS. Don’t just LOOK at your data. The ACT part is really important.

Just having data doesn’t accomplish

anything. Completion is about creating accountability for acting on

those data.


3. Where can the data take you? Successful institutions create clear, structured pathways to

success.

n/a


136

FLORIDA STATE ACADEMIC MAP


4. They take on Introductory and Developmental Classes

n/a

© 2014 THE EDUCATION TRUST© 2014THE EDUCATION TRUST

Source:

Promising Approaches• Course Redesign;• Corequisite Remediation: Instead of placing

students with weaker skills in separate Developmental courses, place into regular courses that:– Have built in supports on the side; – Include paired developmental course; or,– Meet 5 days/week.

• Linked pathways in Math, including Carnegie’s STATWAY and Dana Center’s MATHWAY.


5. Where else can the data take you? Successful institutions

don’t hesitate to demand, require.

n/a


A lot of institutions know what works. And more and more of

them are advising students to do those things.

But it turns out that “students don’t do optional.”


6. They bring back the ones they lose.

© 2014 THE EDUCATION TRUST© 2014 The Education Trust

It’s really not about boldness of reform.It’s about intentionality and quality of execution.


In other words, what institutions do to help their students succeed matters.

A lot.


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© 2014 THE EDUCATION TRUST Where Are We? Why Does it Matter? California State University Leaders Long Beach, CA October, 2014 Copyright 2014 The Education