3R0HIMIKA

: ,

2001

339 (075.8) 65.573 43

, , The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarlily represent those of the IMF

ISBN 5-7133-1028-0

A. ., 1999 - , 2001

. I. 1. - 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. 1. 2. 3. ^ -

11 15 17 17

27

32

36 37

40 40

57

67

4. 5. 2. 6. 7.

75 76

80 80 85

91

100

114

121 123

4. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

126 126

133

140

146

151

7153

6.

2. 3. ( ) (IS-LM-BP ) IS, LM, IS, LM, (AS-AD ) AD AS AS-AD

157 158

167

176

179

188 190

6. 1.

193 193

2. 3.

208

217

4. 5. 6.

224 229 230

7.

1.

234 234

8

2.

3.

4.

5. 6.

.... : : : : : : : : :

245

256

265

271 273

8. 1.

275 275

2.

281

3.

291

4.

297

5. 6.

308 310

. 9. 1. . .

313 315 315

2.

321

9

3.

4.

5. 6.

332

344

348 350

10. 1. 2. 3. 4. - ICOR 5. 6. 7. 11. 1. 2. 3. 4.

353 353 357 360 365

369

374 376

379 379 382

392

398

10

5. 12. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 13. 1. 2. , 3. 4. 5.

399

402 402 406

418

426 427

430 430

435

440

445 447

.

451 455 457 479 481

", , !" , , , "", , ... , , . . , ^' *

, , '. , , , , , , . , , , . * : . . 2- . 4.1. : . . .: , 1997. 416 .

, , , . , . , - , , , , . . , , , , , . , -

12

, , . - , , , , , . , , , . . . I . , , . , , , . , . II , , , . ,

, , , .. , , , . , . , , . , , , , , . . , . , : ; , ; , . , , . , . . , , . , -

13

, , , , . " " , , , . . , , @; ; ; , , , , . . , . - : " , - . , , : .

". , . . , , , , , . , . , , , , , , , , , . , , . , . , , . . !

I

Tltoh. J - , , , , , . . . "- LK. ".

1. , , . , , , . - , . @ - (international mo netary system) - , .

18

1. -

- , , . . , , , . , , . , , . , , . - , , . @ (currency) , , , . : (national currency) ( , , ); (foreign cur rency) , -

( , , ). . : (reserve curren cy) (), () , ( 1.1). (freely usable currency) , . , . , , , . , , , . (hard currency) , , . . , . . .

1.

19

1.1 ( , %) 1977 . 1995 . 80,3 1,8 9,3 1,3 2,3 0,9 2,5 0 1,6 100,0 56,5 3,4 13,7 1,8 0,9 0,4 7,1 6,5 9,7 100,0

, , , . , , , 80% 1977 ., . 1995 . . , , , .

@ (cur rency convertibility) , , . , . , , , . (current account convertibility) , , , . . ,

, , , . . , * , , , , .. , ,

20

1. -

. , . , , . (), , VIII () . (hard), , (soft), . , . , . , , , * , , , . (capital account con vertibility) , ,

, . , , , , - , , . . , , , , . , , . , , . (full convertibility) - , . , . , , , { 1.2).

1.

21

1.2 182 40 (, , ) 130 (, , ). , , , . : , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . , . 1997 . 140 , . , 1946 ., , , . , , , . 80- . . , . , [ 19641973 . " " , 19681970 . . , , . , VIII , . 1997 ., , , , , , , , , . . , 1961 . ( 1947 .), 1979 .; 1965 1983 .; 1961 1981 .

, , , - , , . , , , , , .

, : , , ; , , , , -

22

1. -

, , . , 90- . , . , , , , , . , , , . , (, ), , (, ) . , , , , , . , , , , . (in ternal convertibility)

, , . , , . , , , , . : , . , , { 1.3). (exter nal convertibility) . , , . (commodity convertibility) , , , , . -

1.

23

1.3 . - . 1 . . , , . . . , , . , 100- , , . . . , . , . , . . 10 . . . , , 90% . . , 1995 . , , .

, . , , , , , ^1 , , . . ,

. @ (currency co-circulation) , . : (doUarization) , .

24

1. -

(currency substitution) . , , , , . , , , . . , . , , , , . , , " ", . . , , , , , . : , ; , , ;

, , ..; , .; ; , . , , : , . ( ), , . , , , ( ). , . , . , , , , . , .

1.

25

1.4 , 20% , 30 . . , : , , , . (, , , , ), (, , , ), (, , ) , . 10% ( ), 3060% 19921993 . 15% 1991 . 45% 1993 . 3540% 19941995 . . , , , , 1996 . 1997 ., . 1992 ., 20% 1993 ., . , . , , , , , , , .

, ( 1.4). . , , . , .

, , . , , , , (seigniorage) 10% . , , , , , ,

26

1. -

. , , , , . , , , . . , , - , , , , , . , . , , , , , , . , , .

. , - , . , , , . , , , . . . , , , . . , , . , , .

2.

27

2. . , , .. . , . 1880 1914 . 1925 1931 . @ (gold stan dard) , . , , (mint parity). (gold points) , , . . , , , . . , , . , : , , , , , . . . , , . , . , , , , , - , { 1.5). . , , , , , ; , ; , , ; , -

28

1. \1 -

1,5 . 1837 1934 . 20,672 . . . , 1879 . 4,248 . . . , , $20,672/4,248=4,866$, .. 1 4,866 . . , , , , , , . , 0,02 . , , 4,886$. , 4,886$, . 4,89$ , 4,85$ . , , . , , 1812 ., . 1897 ., , : 0,774234 . 1901 . , . 1913 . 61,8 m . 19001915 . 626 1338 , . , , . 20- ., . 1924 ., , , , , .

, . , , . , . : , . ,

, 1928 . , , , , . , . , , , 1931 . . , 1920- ., , -

2.

29

, - . 30- . . , . , 1933 1934 . 20,65 35 . , , - . - , , 1936 . , 1930 ., .. . , , , , . , , 1930- . , , - . , , , , . ( 1.6). , , :

; , ; , ; ; , , ; -. , , , - , . - , . - : , ; , , 1 1944 . 0,88571 1 ., 35 . ;

30

1. -

1.6 122 1944 . , , , - -. X. -, -. 730 44 . , , , 22 , 29 , 27 1945 ., 1 1947 . . . . , . . . , "", . . , , . , , , . , , , , , , , , . , . . , , , . . , - , , , , , .

( ) ; 1% ; , 10% . - . , .

1% . @ (goldexchange standard) , , , , . 50- . : 1946 . 13 40 , 1962 . 15

2.

31

82 - . 60- . . , - - , , . 1968 . , 1971 . . , 2,25% . , . - ^.

- , 1978 . . - . : , . . , . () . , , - . , 1972 ., , , , . , 20 ( , ), , .. , . , ; , XX . ; , 1978 . , , . ' . - . .: , 1994. -

32

1. -

. , , , . , ,

; ; ; ().

3. . . , . 1979 . . @ (European Monetary System) . : 2,25% . 1990 . , 6% . . 1993 . 15%. (European Currency Unit ECU) , . , , , . (European Monetary Cooperation Fund) - - . 20% , , 80% . , . "

3,

33

, . 75% , . , , , . , , , . , 75% 2,25% , , . , . 15 . 1989 . . . , 1990 ., . , ( ).

1993 ., - . 1999 . . @ ' (European Economic and Monetary Union) - , , . , 1993 1999 . , , : (convergence requirements) , , . , , , : 3% , 60% ; - 1,5 ; 2 - ; -

34

1. >

, , . , , , . , . , , , . , , . (European Monetary Institute EMI) , 1,7

, . . , , : ; - ; , ; 1994 . ; ( 1.7), -

, 1826 . . . , 1% . 1997 ., , , . , . 15% , , , , . |1 , . 1 1999 . (), " ". , , . . , , . , . 6,5% 1993 . 4,4% 1996 .

3.

35

, , . , , , , , , . , , . (euro). , 1999 . . 1998 . , . , , , , (), () . , , . , , . , .

. , . , 1 2002 ., . 1:1; , . , . : . . , . - . 1999 . - , - , , . , .

36

1. -

4. 1. - - , . , , , . , , . . . , , , . . , , . , , . 2. , , .. . ; , ; , , . . , , , . , , ; ; ; (). 3. . . . () , -

5.

37

. - . 1999 . - , 5. 1. - ? 2. . 3. ? 4. ? 5. ? 6. , ? 7. ? 8. ? 9. ? 10. ? 11. .

- , , . , .

12. ? 13. . 14. ? 15. - ? 16. . 17. ? 18. . 19. - ? 20. ? 21. - ? 22. ? 23. ? ? 24. -

38

1. -

? 25, ? 27. , 1914 ., . , . , , ? 28. , . , , - . , , , , , . ? 29. 32. 1996 . 947 . ($1=SDR1,45). : ) ; ) 1.1, , . 33. 15 1995 . : 1,5; 2,2; 1,9; 9,7;

26, - , ?

? ? 30. , , . , / . , , , . , . ? 31. - ?

4,8;1,7; 2,6; 5,2; 2,1; 2,1; 2,4; 4,3;1,2; 2,9; 2,8%. 15 3. ? 34. I ,

5.

39

. 1 , , , ,

. III : ) ; ) .

3 1996 . I 1 3,301 0,1976 0,6242 1,332 1,44 0,008552 !1,8 0,13 0,2198 1,303 0,08784 6,885 II 35,1 6,5363 1,7055 5,7725 III

1771,5664 1269,33 35,1 1,9224 149,55 1,7405 105,71

1

2 - ^

!81111^111^111^11^

- () -

1. . . , - , , , , , . . , , , . ( , ), : , , .. @ {) (ex change rate) -

1.

41

2.1 . , 6 1 ., , . 0,0002 . 1 , , . , , . 1997 . "Wall Street Journal" (currency per U.S.$), (U.S. $ equivalent) 56 , ( ) ( ), - . "Bank of America" 200 , . , , , , , .

, . . @ (currency quotation) . ( 2.7). . . - , . , , , , (on European terms).

, , (on American terms). . . , , . , . (2.1): Rb 1 = W $1, (2.1) , , (2.2): $1= R b x .X

(2.2)

, , , , .. -. 1 .=

42

2.

6 , 1 .=1,5 , - : 1 = 6:1,5=4 . , , . , . , , , , . @ ' (spot rate) , . , , - -: - , . , , . | 30. @ (forward rate) , , . , ,

. . , , . @ (no minal exchange rate) , , (2.3): = /,.(2.3)

^ ; Cj ; ^ . , , , - , . , , . , , , , , . (, ) , . ,

1.

43

, , , . , (consumer price index, CPI), , , . , , , . . @ (real exchange rate) , , (2.4): = --^ (2.4)

^ ; Pj ; /^ . 2.2

2.4 , , ( , ), ( ). , . . , { 2.2). , , . , 1995 . , . , - , ,

: 19921995 . . , ! : , . , 1995 . ^ 4749 5025 ./. 0,4, 8,5%. ^=5025 100,4/108,5=4648 ./., , , , . . 100, 105,8, .. 5,8%. : ^=105,8x100,4/108,5=97,9, .. 2,1%.

44

2.

, , , , , . @ (nominal effective exchange rate, NEER) , , . ::

= Z ( / X W.),

(2.5)

. , , , . , . , , , , . @ (real effective exchange rate, REER) , . : ; = I / ( P f X W), (2.6)

^ ; Z, / ; / ^ ; ^ = EJEQ {^ (^) ; W,={XMMJ/(X,^^+IM^J - (-.) , . . , , , , , , , ,

^ ; Z/ / ; / ^ ; Pf = EJE^ ^ ; W',=rX,+/M.;/rX,,,,+/M,J , .

1.

45

, , . , , ( 2.3). , : , , , ( 2.4). , , , , . 90- . , , . , , , . . . 1997 . .

, .. . (. VIII) , , " " ("multiple currency practices"), . , . @ (single exchange rate) , . , , , . , . , , (principle rate), (secondary rate) (tertiary rate). @ (multiple exchange rate) , , . ,

46

2.

2.3 , . 1 2 1 1990 1996 . (, 0,552 . =1 ). 3 1990 1996 . 46 , . 7 6 [ (385 207 . .).

1

2

3=2/1 !

4

5

6=4+5

7=6/ 8=S3x7 385207W

9

10

11=2 10/138

12=11/1

13= 1112x7

, 1996 . (. .) 7959 5468 13791 27604 10450 11035 17209 84548 18409 38500 16503 31000 133739 112152 34904 385207

:

.

^ 1 '

1990 . 1996 . 1996 . 1996 . 1996 . 1990 . 1996 . 1996 . 1996 . 1996 . { 0,237 0,166 0,556 0,700 1,007 0,667 0,720 0,882 1,568 0,016 0,048 0,100 0,043 0,080 0,347 0,291 0,091 1,000 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 167,3 121,0 214,0 152,5 155,4 115,4 4625,0 138,0 0,201 0,488 0,0012 1,812 0,849 0,006 0,023 0,849 0,883 1,034 0,796 0,993 1,311 0,538 1 0,552 2,278 0,855 11548 26952

0,0012 0,0008 1,64 0,754

61092 72647 14582 20322

0,0044 0,0069 0,0436 0,0007

1

(^) 8 : 0,983=0,700x0,048+1,007x0,100+0,667x0,043... , , , . , , : , . 11 () ( 2) 19901996 . ( 10) (138,0). , , ( , ), (, ). 12 1996 . 11 1990 . , , . , , . , . - . ( 13 : 1,012=0,849x0,048+0,883x0,100+1,034x0,043. , , , .

1.

47

2.4 17 . , , 1990 . , 1989 1991 . . (1990 . = 100)1990 . 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 1991 . 97,8 105,1 97,3 103,1 99,0 1992 . 95,0 112,5 104,2 101,2 98,2 1993 . 95,7 137,2 112,7 93,3 101,8 1994 . 93,2 149,8 112,1 96,0 100,0

: International Financial Statistics Yearbook, 1996. Wash.: IMF, 1997. P. 104.

, . , : , . , , . , , ( ), , ( ). . , , , ,

, .. , . , . , , , . . , 2% .. - .

48

2.

, , , , , , . , , , . - , , , . , ; ,

; . ( 2.5), , , , . , , .. . . 1955 . .

2.5 90- . 70 . 36 , 36 , 29 , 29 29 , , , . : 3,6% . , , , (, , , , , , , , ^, ), (, , , , , , .). : 1990 . , . , , , , , , , , . 25% . , , .

1.

49

30% , , . , . 60- . ( 2.6). , , 2.6

: . , . , 1982 ., , . @ (pegged/fixed exchange rate) -

: 1992 .500

400

300

200 -

\

1001 1 L 1 1 1 1 1

1993 . 1993 . : , 10% , 40% , . .

50

2

, 2,25%. : (single currency peg) . , , (, , , .), (, ), (, ). . . , - , , , . 19921994 . . , . (currency board) , ( ) . 70 , . 19181920 . , , 19201926 . , .

, . . . , 14 (, -, .). , (, , , , , - , - - ), . : , , , . , , , , . (currency composite peg) , , . , . , , , , , ', , , , , , , , , , , , , . , . , , ,

1.

51

. @ (limited flexibile exchange rate) , . : (limited flexibile vis-a-vis single currency) (7,25%) - . , , . (limited flexibile within cooperative arrangements) 2,25% . 10 15 ^ (, , , , , , , , , ). @ (flexibile/floating exchange rate) , , . , , . : (adjusted exchange rate) ,

. , . , . (managed floating exchange rate) , , , . , , , . 38 , (, ), (, , , , , , .) (, , , , , , ). . (independently floating exchange rate) , . , . , , ( , , -, , , .) (, , , , , , , , , .).

52

2.

, , , . 7 , V3 (. 2.1). , , : , , , . .

: (clean floating) ; " ** ("dirty floa ting") . 50- . , . , , 2.1

1989 . 1995 . 32 14 5 7 35 4 9 5 21 20 152 23 14 7 3 20 4 10 3 40 57 181

: International Financial Statistics Yearbook. Wash.: IMF, 1997.

1.

53

, . . @ (optimum currency area) . , , . , . , , . , , . , , , , , . @ (target zones) , . (, )

. . @ (exchange rate band) , . : (par value) . , 1986 1992 . , 1986 . , . 1973 . 1% . 20% ( 10% ). . , ( 1991 ., 1995 1997 .). , . , , .

54

2.

: , . , , , . : , , , . . , . , KOTopbDC ( ), . , , , . , , , ( 2.7).

, ( +/- 1%). ( , .), ( ), . @ (crawling peg) , . , , ( , ..), , , , . , , 90- . , . , , , . 80- . . 2.1, . , ( ), , -

1.

55

. ( ), , , . ( CD), . ( FG), , . 2.7

, , . , . .

6 1995 . , 1 , 1 1996 . . , .. , , . , , , . 1995 . 43004900 ./. (14%), 1996 . 45505150 ./. (13%), 50005600 55006100 ./.

56

2.

. , , " ", " " ("dirty floating"). @ (managed floating) , . , , , " " ("leaning against the wind"). , , , , " "

("leaning with the wind"). , , . , . , , , , . , , , . , , . : -,

;igf^"^^%S

. 2 . 1 .

2.

57

, , . : , , , .

, . , ; , , . , , , .

2. , , 1 , , . , , . , , , , , , , , , , , . . . ''". , , , . , , , . , , , - . . . , . . , . (, , ..) , . , , . -

58

2.

, . , .. . , , , . , , , . . , , , . , . , , . - , , . , , , . , . , , ,

, . , .. , , , . , . , , . . ( ), , , . , .. , , () . ( ), , , . , .. , , () . @ (equilibrium exchange rate) , , . ,

2.

59

, . , . , . , , ( ), (. 2.2). , ,

. , , , 5 , .. 5 . 4 , , . []. , . , 7 , D, . [DE]. . 2.2 . 5 ./. 4 (.) .

Rb/$

^ ^

^

4

1 ^ > 7^.^ 1 ' '^ 1 1

1

1 1 1 1 1 "' "2 3 4 5 6 (.)

. 2.2.

60

2.

( ) 4 ./. 3 (.) ., 5 (.) ., [35]=2 (.) . ( ) 7 ./. 6 (.) ., 2 (.) . [62]=4 (.) .

, . . . ,

. , , , (. 2.3). , ( ) , D^'. [] ', '. - D^\ [], ", ". -

. 2.3.

2. , S^', , Sj". @ (currency depreciation) . @ (currency appreciation) . : 4 6 . . ( ) 6 ./. 4 2 . ( ) 4 ./. 4 . . 4 ./. 4 2 . 6 ./. 6 . . 2 . . 5 ./. (. 2.4). , " . - , Dj', Sj. [] .

61

, , . Sj'. , . , , , . Dj' D^". , ', . . - , . , , . , , , , , . .

62

2.

" ". @ (speculative attack) , . , , , , , , . @ (currency devaluation)

. @ (currency revaluation) . 2.4 . 5 ./., 2 . . 6 . . 26=4 . . 2 . ., 2 . . 5 ./. 4 . . 2 . . , 7 ./. .

"$

'=7

hi

. 2.4.

2.

63

, , , , . . , , , . . , 6 7 ./. , 0,667 0,679 . . 2.2. , , . . , ,

, .. , , . , . @ (real de valuation) , , . , , , , , , { 2.8). (2.4) , , 2.2

64

2.

2.8 , 1996 . ^ 4600 1995 . 4750 ./., .. 3,3%. , 1996 . . 1,4, 28%. 1996 . ^=4750 101,4/128=3763 ./., .. 3,3% , 22%.

, , , , . . , . . , , . , , - , . , , .

,

, . , , . , ( ). , , , , . , , : . . . , , . , , , -

2.

65

, . , , , , . , , , , , . . . , , , . , , , , . , , , . , . , .. . : , , , . ,

, , . , - . , , , . , , , . , . , , ( 2.9). . 2.3. , , , , . , , - , . " . ()

66

2. 2.3

: / / / / / / / /

- /

( ), (). , .

, . , , . -

2.9, , , 500 . . , 5 ./. 500 000/5=100 . . , 6,25 ./. 500 000/6,250= 80 ., . , 4 ./. 500 000/4=125 . ., . , , 100 . 5 ./. 100/5=20 . 6,25 ./. 100/6,25=16 ., . 4 ./., 100/4=25 ., . , , .

3.

67

,

, .

3.

, , . . . , , , . : , , , ; , ; ,

, , . : , . . @ (elasticity of currency demand and supply) . : Ag/[(g.+e,)/2] = /[{^ +,)/2](2.7)

, -

68

2.

. : ; - . : ; .

. . , . , , , ,

. 2.5.

Es/Rbf

ERb^

0.25 0,20 0.15

J500 700

L850 Rb125 131 140 . 2.7.

. 2.6.

3.

69

. , >1, .. . ,

11

, V-

\ ~ ^ 1

1_ 11'2 "1 ^

^

Mi

1 1 1

1

^

^

1.'

\

1

'

^2

. 3.4.

. 3.5.

3.

99

, . , . - , , , - , . , ^ , ^, .. , . , , , . , , . , , , . . , . ,

, , . : , . / / . , . : , . / / , / / . . - . - .

100

3.

4.

, , , . , , , . . , . , , . . , , (monetary authority): , , ( ) .

/ () , . (financial survey), (monetary survey) . , , (Central Bank balance sheet) / (bank consolidated balance sheet), , . , , , . ( ). , , , , , . . , .

3 ^

- reserve money monetaiy base high powered money ^= + Reserves (bank resCTves) /1 (currency in circulation/ outside banks) (currency with banks) (bank deposits with Central Bank) (required) (excess) (currency issued) ( , ) ^ ,

- ,=+ Deposits

/ (currency in circulation/outside banks) (demand deposits) ! (quasi-joaoney) (time deposits) (savings deposits) (foreign currency deposits) (other private sector deposits) (short-term Treasury bills)

( , ) , , , , ,

broad mon^M2-M,+Qiiasi*MoiK^

102

3

@ / (money supply) . MQ My , .. . . . 3.2. , ^, (high-powered money) (reserve money, RM), , (). , . , ( ). , , . ^ , , . ^ J (quasi-money, QM) , , , ,

. , , . , ^ , , , . 3.3. ^ , ^ . , , . , / . MjMy 3 L ( ), ^, ^, ^, ^. @ (money sup ply) , / . , ^, ^ : International Fi nancial Statistics. IMF (monthly).

4.

103

3.3

(currency outside banks) (demand deposits) (reserves) (time deposits) (savings deposits) (foreign currency deposits) (other private sector deposits) (short-term Treasury bills)X X

,X

.X

X

QM

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

. @ (' multiplier, m) . 3.2 ^ {M^-Currency-^Reserves). ^ (net foreign assets), (claims on government) (claims on deposit money banks). Co ^

(^=Cur rency'\'Deposits), , , . () Currency + Deposits = . (3.15) ^ Currency + Reserves = Currency/Deposits, ^Reserves/ Deposits, , : (Currency/Deposits+Deposits/Deposits) = (Currency/Deposits+Reserves/Deposits) (+1) (3.16)(p+t)

, -

104

3.

3.4 -1 1 2,42 2,5 2,5 34 109 2,97 1,81 2,88 1200 9,7 53 25,75 17,5 4,9 9,9 271 11,5 4600 294 3,87 14,9 5,45 3,25 4,3 11000 3 7,8 2300 375 26 5,9 68 46,7 2 2,42 2,5 1,3 2,82 3,09 2,81 2,95 2,07 2,88 1,16 1,81 3,95 3,04 2,86 1,28 1.52 3,4 2,73 2,34 1,55 1,89 2,83 2,24 1,39 1,92 2,08 1,76 2,57 2,6 3,37 4,02 2,47 1,79 3 4 5

__ _1,03 1,03 14,0 45.0 1,2 0,7 1.2 495,9 4,0 21,9 10,6 7,2 2,0 4.1 112,0 4,8 1901 121,5 1.6 6,2 2,3 1,3 1,8 4545 1,2 3,2 950,4 155,0 10,7 2,4 28,1 19,3

__ _1.00 1,29 12 35,3 1,06 1,63 1,39 417 8,33 29,2 6,52 5,76 1,71 7,75 178 3,38 1683 126 2.5 7.9 1,92 1.45 3.1 5739 1.44 4.43 894 144 7.72 1,47 27,6 26,1

__3 20 17 28 16 54 14 19 52 25 63 26 18 47 37 41 13 4 36 22 17 7 43 21 14 27 6 8 39 66 2 26

: The Economist. 1997. -Apr. 12. P. 71. "The Economist" "" , . 1 - 1997 . , 11 . , 2,42 . 2 -, , .. 4. 3 - . 1 2,42 . 4 , 3 , . 5 () (). , - , , , 2 . , , , ( 25%) ( 43%), . , , , , , ( 6'3%) ( 40%), . , . , - . , 8 12 .

4.

105

1. , 1, , , , . , , : (currency) . , . . (reserves) . , . , . (reserves/deposits ratio, ). , , , . . (currency/deposits ratio, ). , , , , , .. , . . . . , ^, My ,

{MJM^, (MJMQ) {MJM^, , . , . , ( . (Af) , , , . , , . (/) , . , , . . , 7% , 2%, 72=5% . , -

106

3.

, ( ) . , . () , , , . , , , , . , . () , . , , , , . , , 2 , . , , , , . @ (money demand, ^ , , - . ^, , 1950- . ,

"*. , . , , , , , . , , . , . , PY , . , , , . , .. . , (, , , , .). , 10 , . , , '^^. * Baumol W. The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Approach Quarterly // Journal of Economics. 1952. Nov.; Tobin J. The Interest-Elastisity of the Transaction Demand for Cash // Review of Economics and Statistics. 1956. Aug.

4.

107(3.20)

, PY/M . , 1 . , 250 .,,, , . , , Pb(PY/M). , , , , .. (/2). M=PY . . , ^1, .. . , Pb(PY/M) (/2). , , , ..^

=

IbY

, "^ =/2, , :

. , , .. , , . , , . (3.20), () , , 2 , 2 , ( 3.21) . 3.21 () 2 ' ' dW dM '2 . , PbPY r _ 20%, , (3.17) 1 ' ^ 2 ~ , , =1,2 9,5%, , =1. | , 0,5, - ^^-^^^ 20% 2 . = (^1 = , (3.19) . , =1,2 ( ^ , 20%) = 1, 1 ( : _^^ _ 1 1 ^* ^ ), ,

108

3.

10% (, 9,6%). , 0,5. . , ^ , , , ..

f /(.)

(3.22). 3.6.

, : ; , ; , . , ('' = , (''/P = ). , , , " () (Y):

, , . /f , Fj , . Tj. (\/), ^. {\1),

=f^f(r.n

(3.23)

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, , : - . /f , Y), ^, (\/), (\/)(\/), , . f(r, Y) , , , -

4.

109

. , D , , ^. F , , . , : , , . , . , . ("^) ( , . , , , . , , .. Y

. . @ (monetary approach to the exchange rate) ^ . 3.7 3.4 3.6, 90 . , , , ( , ), ( ). 3.7 . , , . , ^, . , , . - / ', Ej . , . -

110Ed i

3.

^ \1_'|\

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,

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, , , . , , 3.7 , , . , , . ', , / 3. , , , , . , : , , , . , , , .

4.

111

, , , .. , Y R . : . , , , , . 3.24, 3.23, , : M' = Pxf(r,Y). (3.24) () () , , , 10 () 10 {'). : , .. , . . , , . 3.8 . , 3.7, . , .

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112

3

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.

,,)

3.26 , , . , , , , . . ^^^ () .. , . . , , , , , , . :

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4.

113

3.28 , , , . : ( ) / . , / . 10% 10%. 10% 10% . 10% 5% 4,8%. , . , . . , . , . , , . , , . 3.4.

: (1) , . (2), , (3). , , , (4). 3 4, 5, , . , , , . . . , . , , . . . -

114

3. 3.4

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..

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3.13 3.28

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, , , .

.

5. , , ( , , ) ( , , ). , . , , , , . -

5.

115

: ( ), ? ^. , . , , , , , . , . , , 2 . , , ( 2.4): ^ --^(3.29)

. , / / . 3.26 , , . , ^ 20% 20% PjlP^, ^ . . , , . . , . , . . , , . 3.29 : = (3.30)

^ ^, , , . , , , . , ^ Krugmman ., ObsterfeldM. International Economic. N.J., 1992. P. 399415.

, (3.3), , , , . , , ,

116

3.

, , (3.25) : = (3.31)

= [ ^ ] [ ^ ' - / ' 9]./' ^ = ^ [ _ ^ ] /

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, , . (3.11) , 3.33, ( 0* ' ' = = ^ + (71'-^^^ W^\). (3.34)

3.32 3.28 , , , . , , , . , , . , . , :

(3.33)

3.34 (3.13), . , , , , E'^^^j=E\, 3.34 3.13. , . , 20%, 0%, , , 20%. 5%, 25%. , 3.34 , , 3.34 3.32:

5.

117

W. -

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w*\\^

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3.32 , . , , . ( ) . . . , , . , . . . 3.5.

(.3.5): (1) (2), , , , (3). , , : (4). (3) (4), (5), , , . , . , . , .

1970- ., , ^. ^ Dornbusch R, Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics/ZJournal of Political Econo my. 1976. Dec.

118

3. 3.5

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'/

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4.

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3.35

, , , , . , , . @ (money neutrality) /

/ , , , . , 1000 1 , , . . , -

5.

119

, , , . , , , , , . @ (exchange rate overshooting)

, . , - , , . ,

.

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. 3.9.

120

3.

, , , , . (. 3.9). [t^tj '^. (^^), (PQ) (^) . t^ ^ (. 3.9).

(. 3.96), , ^, , , . (. 3.9), , , , , , . (. 3.9) ^, .. , , -

3.6

, 1 , , , X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

X

6.

121

. ^, . , , , , . . , , 20% 1995 ., . . , , , . 3.6. , , , , ,

. , , . , . , . , , . , / / , , , . , , .

6. 1. . , , , . , , , , , ,

122

3.

. . . , . , , , , , . 2. . , . , . , . , , . , . , , - , , .

3. , , . : , . / / . , . : , . / / , / / . . - . 4. , . .

7.

123

. . , . , , . . . , , , . . 5. , , ,

, . , , . , . , . , , . , / / , , , . , , .

7. 1. ? 2. ? 3. -

124

3

? 4. . 5. ? 6. , ? 7. ? 8. ? 9. ? 10. . 11. ? 20. , ? ? 21. 3- , , 0,05, 6- 0,03 . . 22. , . , ? 23. , 27. , : ) ;

12. ? 13. i^pca? 14. ? 15. ? 16. ? 17. ? 18. ? 19. ?

. ? 24. ? 25. . . ? 26. 20%. ?

) ; ) ?

7.

125

28. : ) ; 6) ; ) ; ) ? 29. 4% 4%. : ) ; ) ; ) ; ) ? 30. , : ) ; ) ; ) ; ) ; ) ; ) ? 31. 1 .-12 , 1 .=

130 . 10, 5%. ? 32. 1995 . 120 1990 .= 100, 180. 1990 . 1 .=1000 . , 1995 .? 33. 50, 5% . 5 . ./. , ? 34. - 20% 12 8% . 12%, 1 .=200 . : ) ; ) - , . 35. 40% , 70%. , 10 ./ 14 ./. ?

4

. ! * , . , . , . . . , , . ^' ".

1 . . , , , , , . , .

1 .

127

, , @ (balance of pay . ments) , , { 4.1), (economic territory of country) , , , : (1) . , (2) , , , , . . , , , . , (double , entry system). . , . , (residents . nonresidents). , (, . , , ), , , . , , . , , , , , , . . (, .) , , ^ . . , 1993. . 21. , .

128

4

4.1 . , 100 . . . , . : 100

100 . . , 100 . ., . , , . : ( ) ( ) 100

100 . . , . . , , . : ( ) ( ) 100 100

, . , , , , , , . (market price). , , , , , , .. ,

. , , , , . , : , , . , . (time of regist ration). -

1 .

129

, , , , , , . - . , . (accounting unit). , . , . , . . : , . , , . ( ), , , , (,

), . , , . , , , . ( ). - , (, .) , , , . , . , . , , , , , . - , . , , , , , , . , , . -

130

4

- , , , , . . , , , . , . : ; ; , ; , ; , , . : (I) , ( ), (II) , (. 4,1).

, " ("above the line"), , , , " " ("below the line"), . . @ (net errors and omissions) , , - , , . . - . , ., , :^ , .. , . , / . , , . , . , , .

1.

131

4

: 1 1. . a) 1. / 2. 3. 4. , 5. 5.1. 5.2. b) 1. ^ 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 2. 2.1. 2.2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9.1. 9.2. 9.3. , 10. 10.1. 10.2. 11. . 1. 2. 2.1. 2.1.1. 2.1.1.1. 2.1.1.2. 2.1.2. () 2.2. 2.2.1. () 2.2.2. () 2.2.2.1. 2.2.2.2. 2.3. . 1. 2. 2.1. 2.2.

132

4

2. 1. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 4 1 2 2 1 2 3 2. / . 1. 1 1 ^ I 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 ' 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 2. 2 1 * 2 1 1 , 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 , 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 * 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3. 3 1 ^ 3 1 1 3 1 2 3 1 3 3 1 4 3 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 ** 3 2 3 3 2 4 4. 4 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 4 1 4 4 1 1 4 4 1 2 4 4 2 4 4 2 1 4 4 2 2 4 4 2 3 4 5

Balance of Payments Manual IMF, Fifth ed , 1993, no , 1993 : ' (passenger), (freight) (other) ^ (claims on affiliated entenses) (liabilities to affiliated enterprises) ' (claims on direct investors) (liabilities to direct investors) * , - (monetary authorities), (general government), (banks) (other sectors) ^ , - (monetary auUiorities), (general government), (banks) (other sectors) (lond-term) (short-term) ^

2.

133

, , , , , , , . , , 1 . @ (current account balance) , , , , . : , , . . @ (goods) , , , ,

, , , , . : , ( ), , .

. , , , , . , (, ), (). , (, ). ( ), , . , , . , . , , , , -

134

4.

. , , ( 4,2). , , . , , . , , , , , . . , , ,

. , - : , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , , , , . , , . @ (services)

4.2

: - -

, 100 . . , : : 100 100 100 100

2.

135

, , (, , , , .), . . , , , , , , , . . , . , , .. . , - , , .. . , , , - , , .. . , , , ( 4.3). , , , , .

. , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , . . , , , , , . , , , , , . , : , , . , , , , , . , 4.1, . , , , , , , , -

136

4.

4.3 , 100 . ., 10%, .. 10 . . . : 100 90 10

, : 10 80 90

, 10 . . , 5 . , , 1 . . , , . . , . : 16 1

12

10

, . ( ) .

, , , , , , , . , , , , . , [ .

, , , . , , , , , , , . , -

2.

137

: , , , Inter net. , , , , -. , , , . () . " " , , - , . , , , , - , , . , ,* , , , ( , , , ), , , . .

, . . @ (income) , , , , . . , , , , . , , , , . , . , : ( ) () { 4.4). . .

138

4

4.4

, . . 500 (..), 50 .. , , , 200 .. : 110 , 100 , 40 50 -- , . : 210 500 160 50 50 450

. . : , - , -. . , , , . . , - , , , , .

( , , ). , , , ; (200 40) ; ; (110 - 100) ; .

, , .. . . , .

2.

139

@ (current transfers) , , . , , , .. . , . , , , , . . , , , , , , . . , , ( , , , " "). , , .

, , , , . , , . , , , , , . : , , . , , , , . , (, , , , .), . , , , , . , , , . .

140

4.

3. 5 , 20 . - , 14 . . . . "". , , - . , , , , , , , . , . @ (capital and finan cial account balance) , , . , 4.1, : , / ; , , . , . @ (capi tal transfers) , , . . . , . , . , , , . . , , . , , ,

3.

141

. , . , , . / , ( ), (, , .). , " ", . . . @ (direct invest ment) , ( ) ( ). , 10% , .. 10%

( ), ( ). , 10% . , , . , 10% , , . , , , . , , , , . , , , , . : (subsidiaries) , - 50% ; (asso ciates) , - 50% ; (branches) , . , -

142

4.

, . , , , . , . . . , , 4.5

, , , , , . (, , , ). , ( 4.5).

, , .

, "" - , 50% , 45% 5% . 1996 . "" : 1) 100 (..) , ; 2) 20 .., ; 3) 40 .., 20 .. 20 .. ; 4) 75 ..; 5) 10 .., . ( ): - - 20 (2) 40(3) 5(5) 50(1) 20(2) 5(1) 20(3) 5(1) 75(4) 20(3) 55(1) 75(4)

3.

143

@ (port folio investment) , , . : , (equity securities), , , ( , ), ; (debt securi ties) , , . , , , , , . , , . , , , ; ; , ; ; , - ,

; , (, , .). . ^ , , , . . , , . , , , , (note issuance facilities, NIFs). , . , . , ( , , , ) (, , .). , . , -

144

4

, . , , : (option) , ( "") ( "") . , , , , . , / , , . . (warrant) , . , , . , , , . (swap) , .

, , .. , (, ) . (futures) , , , , , . , , . (forward) , , , . , . , . . , , , , . . , , .

3.

145

, , , . @ (other invest ments) , . , , , : (commerci al credits) , . . (loans) , , . , , , , (, ). , , , , . , . (repurchase agreement, REPO) ,

. , . . (cash and deposits) , , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , . , / , , , . , . , -

146

4.

( ) ( ).

, . , , .

4.

, ? , . . . . . , . . '' . , , " ". , , . , , . @ (reserve assets) , . , . , .. , , . ( , ), . - , . , , . , . , , . ,

4.

147

, . , . , , , , . , . , , , , . . , , , , . , , , , . , . , , ,

. - , - , , -. , -. , " " , : 995/1000, , . . . , . () , - , . , . 3% .

148

4.

() . 25% - . , , , . , , , , , , , , . , ( ) , . , , , , , , .. . , , , : , , . .

, , . , , , . , , . @ (exceptional financing) , , , , . . : (debt forgive ness) , - -. . (debt/equity swap) , , . , : , -

4.

149

4.6 : , 1994-1995 . ( . )1994 . (- ) ( % ) ( . .) 11 381 67 716 -48 005 19711 8 951 -15 443 - 6 492 3 502 - 5 282 - 1 780 449 -507 -58 840 4 310 - 3 470 -31 728 636 -1 637 87 113 -26 -32 451 -17 167 -15 284 - 2 152 -21 659 21 1 1 18 659 934 514 211 1995 . 11288 81 453 -58 967 22 486 12 445 - 2 0 538 - 8 093 4 293 - 7 566 - 3 273 764 -596 168 -348 3 122 - 3 470 - 1 2 589 1 955 -62 2 017 - 1 435 - 1 525 90 - 1 3 109 5 315 - 1 8 424 - 9 454 -11 103 -10 5 16 103 382 473 012

1

7,1 4,1 -7,8 278 752

6,3 3,2 -3,1 357 552

: Balance of Payments Yearbook. Wash., 1996. P. 638. , 1994-1995 . ( 6-7% ) ( 3 4% ). 8% 1994 . 3% 1995 . 1994 . , . 1995 . , .

150

4.

, . (credits for ba lance of payments needs) , . , . " ". (debt recheduling) , . , , .. , . (arrears) , . " ". - , , ( 4.6). , , . . , , -

. @ (international investment balance) , . , : -^ -> -> -^ -^ . @ (invest ment position) , , , , . . @ (net investment position) , , . , . , .

5.

151

, . - . 11,5 . , , , , , , . , " " , ' . , 5. 1. , . , ,

. , , , . , , , , . , , , . , . , , , , , . , , .

, , , , , . , -

152

4

, , , , , . : , ( ), , . 2. , , , , . : , , . , , , , . " , (, , , , .), . , , , , . ,

, , . . 3. , , . , / , , , . , . , ( ) ( ). , . , , . 4. " " ,

6.

153

' . , . , , , . , , , , .

, , , . , . , , , , , . , , .

6. 1. . ? 2. ? ? 8. ? 3. ? . ? 9. ? 4. ? ? 10. 5. , . ? 11. 6. ? ? 12. 7. ?

154

4.

13. ? 14. ? 15. . 16. ? 17. , , . 18. , ? 19. ? 27. 1995 . 82,4 . ., .. . . 28. 4.6\ : ) , ; ) ; ) ; ) ; ) ;

20. , " '* , ? 21. ? 22. . 23. ? 24. ? 25. ? ? 26. ?

) ; ) . 29. , , : ) ; ) ; ) , ; ) , . . 30. '' ,

6.

155

, ". ? ?

31. , , , . ?

32. 2 . . : ) ; ) ; ) ; ) ? 33. : ) 5 . ; ) , ; ) '''' ; ) , , , ? 34. ''" : ) ; ) ; ) ; ) ? 35. : ) 100 . . ; ) 50 . . ; ) 25 . . ? 36. "** 50% "" . "" 200 .., 100 .. 100 . . . " ** "** 500 .. 10% . , , "** "** 100 .. 15% . "** 100 .. 8% , "**. . 37. "** 100- " **. "** 100%

156

4,

''" . 1997 . : "'' ''** 50 ., "" 100 .. ''", ''" 5 .. "" "" 50 . .

, "" 4 . . , "" 80 .., "", 8 .. . "", , 25 . . ?

wlt^^ 5 ,.. . , , ... ... , , , , . , , , ! . "", - - -

158

5. ^

1. , ... -, 20- , , ... , . 20- , , . . , " ". , , , , . , , , ^ () , 1989, 1992 1995 . 26 2414 , , ' . , , -. 1995 . , , , ^. @ (spot transactions) . , . , , . @ (outright for ward) , . , , , , ^ .

1.

159

. , , , 100 . . 1,6 , , . , , , . , . , , , . , . , . , (forward discount), , (forward premium). , 1 . = 6000 , 1 . = 5800 , , 200- . :Premium/Discount^/.spot

@ (swaps) , . 85% , . , . . "" 1 . . , , . , "" , , . , . 70% . , . 60- . . ^ , .

^spo.

^ ^ ^ jQQ^

(5.1)

, " -. . 12, 4, 52.

160

5.

@ (futures) , . , , , 1972 . , , , , , , . , , . , , -, . , . @ (options) , , , . , (call option) (put option) ( ) ( ) (stike price). : , , . 1-5% .

, , , , , . , , , , , . : , , , , , . , , , , . 1995 . 1,2 . . _ (. 5.1) 10% . 2000 . 2 . . 4 1 % , 53 6% , , , . . , 200% (. 5.2). 90- ., -

1.

161

5.1

(. . 1995 .) 1989 . . 350 240 30 620 . % 56 39 5 100 1992 . . % . 400 45 420 48 60 7 880 100 1995 . . % . 520 41 670 53 70 6 1260 100

: Central Bank Survey of Foreigh Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity. Basle: BIS, 1996. P. 3. - , . : , , , , ^ , , ^, , . , , , . . , , , , , , " " ("vehicle cur rency") 97% , 95% 88% , . 5.2

(%) 1989 . 90 27 27 15 2 10 1 2 1 25 200 1992 . 82 40 23 14 4 9 3 2 3 20 200 1995 . 83 37 24 10 8 7 3 3 2 23 200

: Central Bank Survey of Foreigh Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity. P. 8.

162

5.

, , . 47% , , 53% (. 5.1). . , , 91%, 9% , . . (, - ) 55% , 30%, . , - . 161 464 . . . , , , 76-105 . . 11 % 75% . 10 44%, - 47, 51%. : 79% , 49, - 46%.

, , , , , . (voice brokers), (electronic brokers) . , , , . @ (arbitrage) , (, ) , . - , . , - 1 . = 1,6 , 1 . = 1,5 , , , -, 0,1 . , ,

1.

163

( , .), , , , ( , ) . (two-point arbitrage), (threepoint arbitrage) . , 1 . = 1,6 = 0,6 , . - 1 . = 1,5 , 1 . = 1,6 , 1,5 - , 0,6 1,6 , - 0,1 , . , , . @ (foreign exchange risks) , . : , , , . , , ,

. , . . @ (hedging) , , . , , , , , . , , . , , , , . , , . , . , . , , ,

164

5.

. , , , , . , . , . , , . , (net open position) . , , , , . , , , . , . , , , , , , , , , * , . , (long position). , , , , (short position).

, , . , , , . , , , , . , , , . , . , , , , . , , , . . , , . , , . , . (uncovered interest arbitrage) -

1.

165

. (covered interest arbitrage) . , , , . 10, 30%, , 20%. ( ), . ( , ), . , . , , . , . ,

150 . . @ (settlement risks) , . , . , - , , - , - . , , , . , , . , . , BMP 1996 ., , 24-48 . , , , . " ", , , , . -

166

5.

, . , , . SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Tele communication) , 1996 . 27 1000 ; FXNET , 70 . , . : ECHO (Exchange Clearing House) , 21 , MULTINET, 1996 . , , , , " ". , , ^; , , , ; , , ; , .

; , , , , . 1995 . 1,2 . . 2 . 2000 . 41% , 53 6% . . 83% ( 200%) . : , , , , , , ^, , . : , - 55% , 30%. , (, ) , . , , . , , , . .

2.

167

2. . . - . , , , . ? ! ! ! -. : !

, . ** " : , , . , XX ., . , , (fixed income market), . , . . , ( ), ( ) , , , ; , ; . . , . : (public debt) , .

168

5.

, , - . , . (publicly guranteed debt) , . (private nonguranteed debt) , . , . . , , , , , , 25%; , ; . , , , . 50-70% , . 30-50% : (debt) (equities).

, . : (no tes and commercial paper, CP) , . . . , , 1700 . (Euro commercial paper ) , , . , , , . (note issuance facility NIF), - , , , . , , , , , (Euronotes). (bank loans) , . , (syndicated loan). , -

2.

169

. - , , , . (bonds) , 3-10 , . , . (cou pon bonds) (zero-coupon bonds). . , , , , . , , , . , , . {^ . . , , , - ( bonds), - (samurai bonds), - (bulldog bonds), (mata dors).

. (Euro debt market) (dra gon debt market). , . , - , . , : , , - , , , (over-the-counter, ). , , . , , , . 1 . . (. 5.3). - 90- . . -

170

5. 5.3

1991 . . . 1996 . . . 1996 .

% 47 9 44 100

% 48 25 27 100

. . 5015

% 61 10 29 100

185 35 170 390

495 265 2751035

8342392 8241

: International Banking and Financial Market Developments. Basle: BIS, 1997. P. 3. . , , . 43% , 15 , 12% . (. 5.2). , , : , , . , . - (under-writer), , . -, . , , , , , , . , . 65% . Moiyr , , , . (Internattional Securuties Market Association ISMA) , Moody Investor Service Standard and Poor's , . 1000 . Stan dard and Poor's AAA. , . (+) (). , , , D, , (junk bonds). , , . 90% , , .

2.

171

, (investment grade)H (below in vestment grade) ( 5.1). . , 70- ., , , , , , . , 80- ., , , , , . , 5.1

, . (debt repudiation), , , , . , 80- ., , , . (debt overhang) , . , 90- . ,

: 90- . , , . 15 , , , , . 1997 . : 1 . . 9,25% , 1996 . 2 .; 1997 . 2 . 9% ; 1997 . 2 . . 10% 10 . (Moody's), 2 (Standard and Poor's). (500 . .), - (300 . .), (100 . .) 10 ( ., . .). , , 1997 . 5 . . 1994 ., , . "-" 250 . ., - 175 ., 200 . . 11% . 1 . . "". 1996 . 200 . ., . 1997 . 75 . . 340 . , . .

172

5.

. . 90- . . , , , , : EDT/ XGS ; EDT/GNI ; TDS/XGS ; INT/GNI ; RES/EDT ; RES/MGS ; Short term/EDT ; Concessional/EDT

; Multilateral/EDT . , EDT/XGS 200-250% TDS/XGS 20-25%. , , , . (face value) , . , , (. 5.4). , , : (debt outstanding and disbursed) , , ; (disbursements) ; (undisbursed debt) , ; 5.4

765 . 765-9386 . NPV/XGS>220% 132%, (out-of-the-money), , . , , . , . < , , . , < , , , , . -

184

5.

1973 . ^ (BlackScholes formula), . , () . , (exchange-traded derivatives), , (overthe-counter, ). 1986 . (. 5.6). 1998 . . , : 1) , ,

; 2) ; 3) , ; 4) , . (66% 1995 .) (32%) . , , 2%. 80% , . (. 5.7). 5.6

( ) 1990 . . . % , xopiyeMbie , 2 292 1 455 600 17 57 69 94 3 451 2 312 578 561 5 743 39^9 25,3 10,4 0,3 1,0 1,2 1,6 60,1 40,2 10,1 9,8 100,0 1995 . . . % 9 185 5 863 2 742 38 43 172 327 17 990 14 030 1 456 2 503 27 175 33^8 21,6 10,1 0,1 0,2 0,6 1,2 66,2 51,6 5,4 9,2 100,0

: Bank of International Settlements. Annual Report, 1996. P. 153.

4.

185

5.7

, ' US T-bills (1 .) T-bonds (50 .) T-notes (100 .) Libor (3 .) (12,5 .) (125 .) (100 .) (62,5 .) (125 .) (100 .) (500 .) S&P 500 ($500 X ) S&P Midcap 4000 ($500 ) NIKKEI 225 ($5 ) NASDAQ 100 ($100 X ) DAX-30 (DM 100 X ) GSCI ($250 X ) -40 (FFr200 ) (100 ) (50 ) (5 . ) (25 . ) (1 . ) (42 . ) (10 . . Btu) (20 ) (40 . ) (112 . ) (50 . ) 30- T-bills

($ 100 ) (62,5 .) (31,250 .) (250 .) (6,250 .)

NASDAQ100 ($100 ); NYSE Composite ($500 ) Russell 2000 Technology S&P 500

(100 ) (5 . ) (25 . ) (1 . ) (42 . ) (10 . . Btu) (37,5 . ) (10 ) (5 . bu)

' . : The Wall Street Journal. 1997. Aug. 5. 1,14 . . 90- ., . , , , . , , London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), Marche a Terme International de France (MATIF), Deutsche Terminborce (DTB); Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Chicago Board Options Exchange (), Chica go Mercantile Exchange (CME). , , , , -

186

5.

, , . over-the-counter (), , , , , , . . . , , . , , (. 5.6). , , . , . , , , , , . , ^ 82% . 32 25% . 6% ,

, . 80% . 90- . , , 880 . . , 720 . . , , . , 2 (-, , .). , , . , , , , , . XX . , . , , , , , .

4.

187

, , . , , . , , , . , , , . , , , , , . , , , , , , ,

. , , (, , , ), . , , , , , , . , , , . 90- . 2 . . , 60% . , , , ; ; , ; , . , , ; , (-, , ), , , .

188

5

5. 1. , ; , , , ; , , ; , , ; , , , , . 1995 . 1,2 . . 2 . 2000 . 41% , 53 6% . . 83% ( 200) . : ^, , , , , , , , . : , - 55% , 30%. , (, ) , . , , . , , , . . 2. . , , ; , ; . . - , ; , ; , 3-10 , . , 90- . 1 . . .

5.

189

, , - . , , - , , . . 3. , , , , , , . 1995 . 44 . ., 75% 25% . 80% , 20%. . , , , .

, , , . 4. , , , , . , , , , , , , . , , (, , , ), . , , , , , , . , , , . 90- . 2 . . , -