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TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
Big Change #1: Multi-Cultural Bottom-Up
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The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use!
INFORMATION
TIME
Actionable Intelligence
Available Information
Open source information is more complex than secrets…
Big Change #2: The Really Big Gap
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Over time and space
Channels & Borders
Of strategic value
Quantities & Distribution
Internally available for use
Volatility of sectors
Training & Maintenance
Mobility implications
Cohesion & Effectiveness
STRATEGIC Integrated Application
OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place
TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources
TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities
Military Sustainability
Civil Allies
Geographic Location
Military Systems One by One
Climate Manipulation
Civil Power, Transport, Communications,
Finance
Military Availability
Civil Infrastructure
Geographic Terrain
Geographic Resources
Military Lethality
Military Reliability
Civil Psychology
Civil Stability
Geographic Atmosphere
Big Change #3: Threat Changes with Levels of Analysis
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Who is your historian?
• History is vital to the “framing” of a problem.
• History from different national & cultural perspectives helps “map” the issues and the differences.
• History matters!
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Who is your librarian?
• Spies and soldiers are not good at doing research.
• Librarians, especially the “new” librarians that focus on external discovery instead of internal archiving, are essential to your success.
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Internet CompetencyNo longer a toy--now a serious source
• “All-source” means all sources--the Internet is now a major source
• Search engines vary.• Find images and maps.• Find experts and groups.• Limit to 1-hour efforts.• Need an Internet
specialist on call.
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Commercial Online Competency100X more important than Internet
• Factiva.com• DIALOG• European Services• Value-added is
enormous--reputable sources, editorial selection, structured storage and retrieval
• Need a specialist.
CIA 'Probably' Helps Italian Subversive Groups.
Xinhua News Agency, 03/20/2001, 268 words.
Italian intelligence chief puts Al-Qa'idah's assets at 5bn dollarsBBC Monitoring, 05/16/2002, 142 words.
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Gray Literature CompetencyLimited edition, must know to ask
• Pre-prints, technical reports, company telephone books, university yearbooks, “niche” references.
• Generally requires human access and special knowledge of availability.
• Unique and useful.
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Primary Research CompetencyKnowing Who Knows, Direct Contacts
• Citation Analysis is key to finding top experts across different nations.
• Using the telephone (and the Internet) to reach top experts yields powerful results.
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Citation Analysis ExampleDIALOG, SSCI, $1000 = Savings
• DIALOG access to Social Science Citation Index
• Use OSS methodology• $500 in access charges
+ $500 in analyst time = list of top experts on any country or topic
• Then you call them...
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Analytic Toolkit CompetencySoftware can be a curse or a help
• Digital conversion, storage, visualization, and retrieval tools
• Geospatial tools• Structured analysis
and detection tools• Multi-media
publication and presentation tools
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Geospatial CompetencyMaps & images make a difference
• Commercial imagery cheaper than ignorance
• Russian military maps of Third World vital
• Post-processing support from private sector
• Desktop tools for plotting information in time & space context
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Analytic TradecraftEmerging appreciation for its value
• CIA University breaking new ground
• Moving away from “cutting and pasting”
• Moving away from hard-copy files
• Focus on learning how to think, and how to structure digital data
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Creating an OSINT CellCentral discovery, distributed exploitation
• Six people can leverage global OSINT for an entire Ministry or Service or Command
• This eliminates need for duplicate open source infrastructure
• Also saves money
Senior All-Source Collection Manager
Internet Specialist
Commercial Online Expert
Primary Research
External Contracts
All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager
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Analytic Tradecraft #1:Trade-offs analysis in client context
• Greatest value of analysis is strategic--helping evaluate trade-offs in policy and acquisition and operational costs
• Analysis must be done in client context but with external views carefully represented
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Analytic Tradecraft #2Nine evaluation criteria for credibility
• Relevance to policy• Analytic sophistication• Unique information• Timely and concise• Facts/sources are stated• Conclusions are offered• Assumptions are stated• Options are outlined
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Analytic Tradecraft #3Assumptions must be specified
• Separate “box” for assumptions gains consumer confidence
• List variables and relationships--some are factual, others not
• Obtain second views• Question assumptions
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Analytic Tradecraft #4Alternative outcomes must be specified
• What are the alternative outcomes?
• If they occur, what signposts or events might be triggers?
• In choosing one outcome over others, what judgements were made?
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Analytic Tradecraft #5Facts, opinions, sources
• Distinguish between direct & indirect sources
• Be precise about sourcing of information
• Understand policy sensitivities
• Respect complexity• Account for deception• Label judgements
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Analytic Tradecraft #6Harnessing internal and external expertise
• Must rise above the competition--and use external experts
• Demonstrate research, scholarship, database access, ground truth, teamwork, experience
• Customize intelligence for specific individuals
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Analytic Tradecraft #7The art of distillation and summarization
• 30-second lead buys you 3 minutes for summary which might get them to read it all
• Focus on what’s new• Make it easy to read• A few points, clearly• Role play the audience
Lead
Summary
Analyst
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Analytic Tradecraft #8Deception, counterintelligence, timeliness
• Account for denial & disinformation
• Gaps in collection?• Odd contradictions?• Odd confirmations?• Use textbox to show
reader that steps were taken to consider & defeat deception
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The Analyst as Managerof Customer Relations
• Analyst is a manager of personal relations:– top policymaker
– gatekeeper staff
– heads of bureaus
– policy analysts
– embassy counselors
– visiting dignitaries
– assigned liaison officers
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The Analyst as Managerof Money for Open Sources
• Analyst is a manager of money to fund:– External source
discovery & purchase
– External source processing/evaluation
– Individual expert consultants
– Ad hoc team endeavors
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The Analyst as Managerof External Experts
• Analyst is a manager of external experts:– Experts in other
branches of own government
– Experts in other governments & NGOs
– Business sector experts
– Academic experts
– Media experts
Branch Chief
Analyst
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The Analyst as Managerof Classified Collection Management
• Analyst is a manager of classified capabilities:– Tasking attaches
– Tasking spies
– Tasking technical collection
– Tasking NATO or USA or other classified assets
– Suggesting new secret capabilities are needed
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Making MagicPeople, Sources, Tools, Timeframes, Cultures
• Analyst makes magic by mixing:– People with special
skills and insights
– Secret & other sources
– Tools for thinking
– Timeframes--taking longer views
– Cultures--taking different views
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Challenges for AnalysisForecasting, Generalizations, Two Levels Down
• Analyst is sometimes the only one willing to think clearly:– about the future of the
region and the world
– about strategic generalizations
– about details two levels down that impact on more general policies
