РЕПУБЛИЧКИ ХИДРОМЕТЕОРОЛОШКИ ЗАВОД СЕКТОР НАЦИОНАЛНОГ ЦЕНТРА ЗА КЛИМАТСКЕ ПРОМЕНЕ

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CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF AUTUMN 2012 FOR SERBIA

Jasminka Smailagic, Ana Savovic, Daliborka Nesic, Mirjana Milenkovic, Brankica Drakula and Snezana Zdravkovic

Extremely warm autumn, the warmest on record for the majority of places in Serbia

Analysis of autumn season 2012 for Serbia in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period

Temperature Autumn 2012 was the warmest autumn on record at 15 stations in Serbia (Table 1). In Belgrade, autumn 1923 was the only autumn warmer than autumn 2012 (Figure 1). Mean seasonal air temperature ranged from 7.7ºC on Kopaonik Mountain, up to 15.5ºC in Belgrade, surpassing the maximum mean autumn temperatures on record for all meteorological stations in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period. Mean autumn air temperature anomalies (in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period) were positive in the entire Serbian territory and ranged from 2.0°C in Zajecar up to 3.8°C on Kopaonik Mountain (Figure 2). Maximum daily air temperature, measuring 37.3ºC, was recorded in Krusevac on September 28th, and minimum daily air temperature, amounting to -6.9 ºC, in Sjenica on November 10th. According to the percentile method, mean autumn air temperature was in the extremely warm category for entire Serbia (Figure3).

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Table 1: The rank of autumn 2012 in a descending order according to mean monthly air temperature in Serbia

PALIC 1945-2012 13.0 10.9 2.1 2

SOMBOR 1941-2012 13.1 10.8 2.3 2

NOVI SAD 1948-2012 13.9 11.4 2.5 1

ZRENJANIN 1943-2012 14.1 11.4 2.7 2

KOKINDA 1948-2012 13.5 11.2 2.3 2

B. KARLOVAC 1986-2012 13.7 - - -

LOZNICA 1952-2012 14.1 11.3 2.8 1

S.MITROVICA 1925-2012 13.8 11.1 2.6 2

VALJEVO 1926-2012 14.2 11.3 2.9 2

BELGRADE 1887-2012 15.5 12.4 3.1 2

KRAGUJEVAC 1925-2012 14.2 11.5 2.7 2

S.PALANKA 1939-2012 14.1 11.4 2.7 1

V.GRADISTE 1926-2012 13.7 11.4 2.2 2

C.VRH 1966-2012 9.9 7.2 2.6 1

NEGOTIN 1927-2012 14.1 11.3 2.8 2

ZLATIBOR 1950-2012 11.5 8.2 3.3 1

SJENICA 1946-2012 10.2 7.0 3.2 1

POZEGA 1952-2012 12.0 9.8 2.2 1

KRALJEVO 1926-2012 14.4 11.5 2.9 1

KOPAONIK 1950-2012 7.7 3.9 3.8 1

KURSUMLIJA 1952-2012 13.4 10.5 2.8 1

KRUSEVAC 1930-2012 14.4 11.2 3.1 1

CUPRIJA 1948-2012 13.8 11.1 2.6 1

NIS 1925-2012 15.1 11.8 3.2 1

LESKOVAC 1948-2012 13.5 11.1 2.5 2

ZAJECAR 1929-2012 12.7 10.7 2.0 1

DIMITROVGRAD 1945-2012 13.3 10.3 3.0 1

VRANJE 1926-2012 14.3 11.4 2.9 2

BECEJ 1925-2012 14.1 11.2 2.9 2

autumn 2012 in orderSTATION

Tsr (oC) autumn 2012

autumn average 1961-1990 anomaly (oC)historical period

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Mean seasonal temperature anomaly 1961-1990. Belgrade - period 1887-2012.

2012

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

1923 2012 1942 1963 1926 2000 2009 1961 2006 1932 1930 1943 1987 1967 1960 1966 2002 1982 1969 2008

3.2 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

15.6 15.5 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7

ordinal year - year - Tsr (oC) anomaly 1961-1990. - Tsr

Tsr

(o C) a

nom

aly

1961

-199

0.

2010-20122000-20091990-19991970-19891950-19691930-19491910-19291887-1909

Figure 1. Descending order of 20 warmest autumns in Belgrade during the 1888-2012 period

°C

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Figure 2. Mean seasonal temperature anomaly in Serbia during the autumn of 2012, in relation to the 1961-1990 climatological reference period.

Figure 3. Assessment of mean seasonal temperature in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 by using the percentile method, in relation to the 1961-1990 climatological reference period.

The number of summer days with maximum daily air temperature above 25ºC was surpassed at the majority of main meteorological stations in Serbia. Thirty summer days were recorded in Belgrade, which was 15 days above the average. The largest number of summer days (36) was recorded in Nis (Figure 4).

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The largest number of tropical days was registered in Nis (19), 15 days above the average, while 14 tropical days were recorded in Belgrade, 11 days above the average. A negative anomaly in the number of frost days with minimum daily temperature below 0˚C was recorded in entire Serbia. The largest anomaly was registered in southwestern, eastern and a part of northern Serbia, while the anomaly was least in the area of Veliko Gradiste (Figure 5).

Figure 4. Anomaly of the number of summer days during the autumn of 2012 in relation to the 1961-1990 normal.

Figure 5. Anomaly of the number of frost days during the autumn of 2012 in relation to the 1961-1990 normal.

According to the percentile method, mean daily air temperature in Belgrade was in the very warm and extremely warm categories during most of September. During October and November, temperature was in the normal, warm and very warm categories (Figure 6). According to the percentile method, mean daily air temperature in Novi Sad was in the normal, very warm and extremely warm categories during most of September. During most of October and November, mean daily temperature was in the normal, warm and very warm categories (Figure 7). According to the percentile method, mean daily air temperature in Nis during September was in the normal, very warm and extremely warm categories. During most of October and November, temperature was in the normal, warm and very warm categories (Figure 8).

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Belgrade

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Date

Tem

pera

ture

(°С

)

>98.percrntile 90.-98percentile 75.-90.percentile 25.-75.percentile 10.-25.percentile2.-10.percentile <2.percentile Tsr normal

September October November

extremely warm

very warm

warm

normal

cold

very cold

extremely cold

Figure 6. Mean daily air temperature in Belgrade during autumn 2012, according to the percentile method, in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period.

Novi Sad

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Date

Tem

pera

ture

(°С

)

>98.percentile 90.-98.percentile 75.-90.percentile 25.-75.percentile 10.-25.percentile2.-10.percentile <2.percentileа Tsr normal

September October November

extremely warm

very warmwarm

normal

cold

very cold

extremely cold

Figure 7. Mean daily air temperature in Novi Sad during autumn 2012, according to the percentile method, in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period.

6

Nis

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Date

Tem

pera

ture

(°С

)

>98.percentile 90.-98.percentile 75.-90.percentile 25.-75.percentile 10.-25.percentile2.-10.percentile <2.normal Tsr. normal

September October November

extremely warm

very warmwarm

normal

coldvery cold

extremely cold

Figure 8. Mean daily air temperature in Nis during autumn 2012, according to the percentile method, in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period.

Precipitation Autumn precipitation sum for 2012 was, in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period, below average in most of Serbia (precipitation sum ranged from 25% up to 75% of normal). In the north, northeast and southwest, precipitation quantity was within normal range (Figure 9). According to the percentile method, autumn precipitation sum was in the very dry and extremely dry categories in the area of Sumadija, western and southeastern Serbia, while in the rest of the country it was in the normal and dry categories (Figure 10).

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%

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

350

400

Figure 9. Precipitation sum for the autumn of 2012 in Serbia in percentages of the 1961-1990 normal.

Figure 10. Assessment of precipitation sums for the autumn of 2012 in Serbia by using the percentile method, for the 1961-1990 reference period.

The highest daily precipitation quantity was registered on Kopaonik Mountain on October 28, and it measured 50.4 mm. The number of days with precipitation of 1 mm and above was below normal in almost entire Serbia, in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period (Figure 11). The largest number of days with precipitation was recorded on Zlatibor Mountain (22), and the fewest number in Dimitrovgrad and Leskovac (10).

Figure 11. Anomaly in the number of days with precipitation ≥ 1mm during autumn 2012, in relation to the average for the 1961-1990 period.

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Analysis of 2012 autumn season for Serbia in relation to the 1971-2000 climatological reference period

Temperature Mean autumn temperature anomalies (in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period) ranged from 2.3°C in Zajecar up to 3.5°C in Negotin (Figure 12).

Figure 12. Mean seasonal temperature anomalies in Serbia during the autumn of 2012, in relation to the 1971-2000 climatological reference period.

According to the percentile method, air temperature was in the extremely warm category in entire Serbia (in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period) (Figure 13). According to the tercile method, air temperature was in the warm category in entire Serbia (Figure 14).

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Figure 13. Assessment of air temperature in Serbia for the autumn of 2012 by using the percentile method, in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period.

Figure 14. Assessment of air temperature in Serbia for the autumn of 2012 by using the tercile method, in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period.

Precipitation Autumn precipitation sum for 2012 was, in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period, below average in most of Serbia (precipitation sum ranged from 25% up to 75% of normal). In the north, northeast and southwest of Serbia, precipitation sum was within the range of normal values (Figure 15).

Figure 15. Autumn precipitation sum in Serbia for 2012, in percentages of the 1971-2000 normal.

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According to the percentile method, autumn precipitation sum was in the dry, very dry and extremely dry categories in most of Serbia. In the northern, northeastern and southwestern Serbia, precipitation sum was in the normal category (Figure 16). According to the tercile method, autumn precipitation sum was in the dry category in almost entire Serbia (Figure 17). The only exception was the north of the country, where it was in the normal category.

Figure 16. Assessment of precipitation sum in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 by using the percentile method, in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period.

Figure 17. Assessment of precipitation sum in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 by using the tercile method, in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period.

Analysis of the 2012 autumn season for Serbia in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period

Temperature Mean autumn temperature anomalies (in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period) ranged from 2.0°C in Zajecar up to 3.1°C on Zlatibor and Kopaonik Mountains (Figure 18).

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°C

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Figure 18. Mean seasonal temperature anomalies in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 in relation to the 1981-2010 normal.

According to the percentile method, air temperature was in the extremely warm category in entire Serbia (in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period), with the exception of the area of Palic, where it was in the very warm category (Figure 19). According to the tercile method, air temperature was in the warm category in entire Serbia (Figure 20).

Figure 19. Assessment of air temperature in Serbia for the autumn of 2012 by using the percentile method, in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period.

Figure 20. Assessment of air temperature in Serbia for the autumn of 2012 by using the tercile method, in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period.

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Precipitation Autumn precipitation sum for 2012 was, in relation to the 1981-2000 reference period, below average in most of Serbia (precipitation sum ranged from 25% up to 75% of normal). In the north, northeast and southwest of Serbia, precipitation sum was within the range of normal values (Figure 21).

According to the percentile method, autumn precipitation sum was in the dry and very dry categories in most of Serbia. In the northern, northeastern and southwestern Serbia, precipitation sum was in the normal category (Figure 22). According to the tercile method, autumn precipitation sum was in the dry category in almost entire Serbia. In a part of northern and northeastern Serbia, precipitation sum was in the normal category (Figure 23).

Figure 21. Precipitation sum in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 in percentages of the 1981-2010 normal.

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Figure 22. Assessment of seasonal precipitation sum in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 by using the percentile method, in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period.

Figure 23. Assessment of seasonal precipitation sum in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 by using the tercile method, in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period.