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Anna Karlin Most Slides by Alex Tsun

courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

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Page 1: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Anna KarlinMost Slides by Alex Tsun

Page 2: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Poisson RV Example

Page 3: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

The Zoo of Discrete RV’s

probability students

Definition ofExpectation

● The Bernoulli RV● The Binomial RV● The Geometric RV● The Uniform RV● The Poisson RV

● The Negative Binomial RV● The Hypergeometric RV

Page 4: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

random variables

Important Examples:

Uniform(a,b):

Bernoulli(p): P(X = 1) = p, P(X = 0) = 1-p μ = p, σ2= p(1-p)

Binomial(n,p) μ = np, σ2 = np(1-p)

Poisson(λ): μ = λ, σ2 = λ

Bin(n,p) ≈ Poi(λ) where λ = np fixed, n →∞ (and so p=λ/n → 0)

Geometric(p) P(X = k) = (1-p)k-1p μ = 1/p, σ2 = (1-p)/p2

!X

µ E EN

62 3 Var X

Page 5: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Probability4.1 Continuous random Variables

BasicsAnna Karlin

Most Slides by Alex Tsun

Page 6: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Agenda● Probability Density Functions (PDFs)● Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs)● From Discrete to Continuous

Page 7: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Discrete riv X with range IX 952

Pmt CDTE

p lw PrlX w Fxwt Pr ww.noKw

plw 30 Praewnerraff

EINECITY.ly inIeaYTngaom

0 to I

pxlaf txlkl fxlk.itFxlwtfyPxTSitt v EW

givenExt what is p k

Page 8: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

a pick FxKtb Px µ EH

s.t.tt

prfxek PrlXEk t4pxCH FxCK4 FxCkDd I don'tknow

suppose want to represent cont rn

uniform random drew Sm Os tell

Diseapprox r In T I OP I

brown CDF

f discretedish0

w L'TWEENIE B eeaee

InO O W

Yei E o.oin

a

at511141 In 11KKE I

w

Page 9: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

W

eat n

pyo L I IaI w 1

as n ip lw h 0

pint no longer makes sense

introduce probability density

font analogueghpmffP

T

pxkt txIIFXHII.hx.PTfIIY

Page 10: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

0

f v Fx v

Page 11: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

1

1o

AM H

Page 12: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

1

1

f wI atFX v

eat0

Ti

Page 13: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

PDF Intuition

12 1730 prob density fn

Ep IXEl

Propertiesof a pdf

Page 14: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

PDF Intuition

Page 15: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

PDF IntuitionDelong what pdf

must satisfy

or a

Page 16: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

PDF Intuition

e

Page 17: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

PDF Intuition

t

Page 18: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

PDF Intuition

B

PrfX g proportional f g

Page 19: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

PDF Intuition

D

Page 20: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Probability Density Functions (PDFs)

Pr Xeb Pra a

I F fb Fila

Page 21: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Random Picture

probability students

Definition ofExpectation

Page 22: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

Page 23: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

1

1

IffyG dv

D

r a

Page 24: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

1

1

w

f Hdv t

w

Page 25: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

1

1

Page 26: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1e

Page 27: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

Page 28: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

a

Page 29: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

Page 30: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

a

2

Page 31: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

CDF Intuition

1

1

Page 32: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs)

Page 33: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Model X uniform m OILwhatisc

ca se

i b

2yI 4244 2 d I don'tknow

0 vs

Creve'sf H Eo v zf w dv t

ICdv Cvf Ef

O3

E 2

Page 34: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

F t

a Eb EEE

v s z

a IIIv z

d I don't know

Page 35: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

From Discrete to Continuous

fx x f Cx L

t

f Cx Fx x

EH rjP EHEI fxdx

I

Page 36: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce
Page 37: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Probability4.2 Zoo of Continuous RVs

Page 38: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

Agenda● The (Continuous) Uniform RV● The Exponential RV● Memorylessness

Page 39: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

The (Continuous) Uniform RV

TTTpdf

T

ELXKIxfxtxldx fbx.es dxEEafabab2

atVarfXECX7 EIT 2lb a

ET

t x ax x

beg

Page 40: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce

The Uniform (Continuous) RV

fhe

Page 41: courses.cs.washington.edu - Anna Karlin MostSlidesbyAlex Tsun...Yei E o.o in a 5 at 11141 In 11 KKE I w W eat n pyo L I Ia I w 1 as n i p lw h 0 pint no longer makes sense introduce