2015.3.17

150

IPCC 2007

(1885-2014)

= +

(1885-2014)

(1885-2014)

(1885-2014) ( >= 33)

(1885-2014) ( >= 28)

(1885-2014) (

1900

2000

4oC 6 163

35oC 32 4.5

= RCP4.5 = RCP8.5

25AR5

(RCP8.5) 2091-2100 1986-200523.336

4

2

1980-1999

2050-2059 2090-2099

16 58 96 125 87 137 175

9 20 51 81 29 89 131

17 1 4 8 0 1 5

(1885-2014)

1997 (3343)

1963 (901)

1900 2000

100mm

37 18

150mm

32 14

200mm

41 21

(18852014)

21 1986-2005180

...

- 1289; - 3168

1885 - 2005 2 3

2006 - 2100 2 12

() ()

/ (1954-2014)

IPCC210.380.82

0.146

()

#()

(2046-2065)

0.38

(2081-2100)

0.82

1 2.7 3.1 3.5

2 2.9 3.3 3.7

5 3.1 3.5 3.9

10 3.3 3.6 4.1

20 3.4 3.8 4.2

50 3.5 3.9 4.4

(1961-2014)

=

~

-

5

4

(hktree.com)

(hktree.com)

- 34 - - 2008 & 200910 - 2014 - 2009 (hktree.com)

(hktree.com)

5-6

200811

20095-8

2009

(hktree.com)

(hktree.com)

-

-

- hktree.com)

- ) -

(hktree.com)

200910

(hktree.com)

- -

2014

1998-2003 12

2004-2009 3

0

(1998-2009)

39 10

578 30 ()

()