© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

MANAGING RISKIN

COMPLEX MEGA-PROJECTS

Presented by

Dr David HillsonHonFAPM, PMI Fellow, CFIRM

APM Risk SIG Annual ConferenceLondon, 25 January 2018

The Risk Doctor The Risk Doctor Partnershipdavid@risk-doctor.com www.risk-doctor.com

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Complex Projects:moving from Mission Impossible

to Mission Accomplished?

WHY MISSION IMPOSSIBLE??

Project size increasing (mega-projects)

Project complexity multiplying (wicked projects)

Pace of change accelerating (volatile projects)

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Mission Impossible solution

Heroic effort from superstar professional

High levels of skills & tech support

Huge budget ($650M)

Amazing special effects

Improbable good luck

Or…??

manage the risk?

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Your mission, should you choose to accept

it, is to manage the MegaMax project.

MegaMax is vital to the survival of our

organisation. It is certain to fail, due to its

huge size, high levels of complexity,

unclear requirements, competing

stakeholder demands, and fast rate of

change.

You must make sure that MegaMax

succeeds to deliver all its intended benefits,

on time and within budget.

Congratulations, you are the MegaMax

Project Manager. As always, should you

or any member of your team fail, the

organisation will deny all knowledge of

your actions.

This message will self-destruct in five

seconds…

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Three key questions

1. Are complex projects different?

Inherently ambiguous and unpredictable

not

2. Do complex projects have different risks?

Typical risks, but also

emergent risks

3. Can these risks be managed?

Traditional RM plus

Futures Thinking

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Futures Thinking

Process:

Define Preferred Future(s)[set clear objectives]

Identify Possible Futures

Analyse to find Probable Futures

Manage future proactively to make Preferred Future more probable

How to identify Possible Futures:

Scenario planning

Visualisation

Trend-watching / Horizon-scanning

Field Anomaly Relaxation

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Futures Thinking

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Futures Thinking

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Yes, but how??

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Risk management:forward-looking radarScans ahead to identify Possible Futures

Analyses alternatives to find Probable Futures

Provides techniques to manage future proactively

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Manage the future proactively

NOW

GOOD

BAD

VERY GOOD

UNKNOWN

EXCELLENT

POOR

UNKNOWABLE

DISASTER

CRISIS

UNKNOWN

AVERAGE

TOLERABLE

FUTURE

RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURES

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

NEW

NOWFUTUREOLD

NOW

CHANGE THE FUTURE

through

MANAGING RISK

NEW GOOD

NEW EXCELLENT

NEW BAD

NEW UNKNOWN

CREATE

NEW

POSSIBLE

FUTURES

RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURES

GOOD/BETTER

(BAD)

(VERY GOOD)

UNKNOWNEXCELLENT/

MORE LIKELYPOOR

(UNKNOWABLE)

DISASTER/LESS BAD

(CRISIS)

UNKNOWN

(AVERAGE)

TOLERABLE

xx

x

x

x

CHANGE

PREVIOUSLY

POSSIBLE

FUTURES

Manage the future proactively

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

TRADITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT

Standard risk response strategies for typical risks:

Threats

Avoid / Transfer / Reduce / Accept

Opportunities

Exploit / Share / Enhance / Accept

But what about emergent risks?

Standard response strategies won’t work

Emergent risks appear too late

Need different approach for complex mega-projects

Manage the future proactively1. Typical risks

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

PROJECT CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT

Two key risk response strategies:

Flexibility Able to bend without breaking

Adapt easily & quickly

“The bamboo that bends is stronger than the oak that resists”

Manage the future proactively2. Emergent risks

Resilience Capacity to maintain core purpose & integrity in face of challenge

Capability to regain original shape after deformation

“Bounce-back-ability”MR. BOUNCE

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Practical project continuity management:

Building flexibility & resilience

Project

Clear objectives

Appropriate risk budget & contingency

Flexible processes

Strong change management

Personal/team

Effective leadership

Empowered team

Emotional literacy skills

Positive attitudes

Technical

Iterative development

Design redundancy

Contractual

Adaptable T&Cs

Clear accountabilities

Business/organisation

Shared corporate culture

Grounded values

Strong stakeholder engagement

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

If we can’t control the tides, we can learn to build better boats

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Which image bestdescribes your project?

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Don’t declare “Mission Accomplished” too soon!True agility may require modifying your Preferred Future!

From MISSION IMPOSSIBLE to MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

through MANAGING RISK

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Final thoughts

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Managing risk incomplex mega-projects

Use objective-setting to define Preferred Future(s)

Use Futures Thinking to identify Possible Futures

Use risk management to analyse Probable Futures

Use risk management to change the future proactively

Traditional risk management for typical risks

Avoid/Exploit, Transfer/Share, Reduce/Enhance, Accept

Project continuity management for emergent risks

Flexibility & Resilience

Ensure agility at all levels

Project, personal, technical, contractual, organisational

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

FROM

TO

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

Thank youAny questions?

© Copyright 2017-2018 David Hillson/The Risk Doctor Partnership

For further information

Dr David HillsonThe Risk Doctor Partnership

+44(0)7717.665222

david@risk-doctor.com

www.risk-doctor.com

YouTube.com/RiskDoctorVideo