hydrologie.orghydrologie.org/redbooks/a357/357 description, preface… · Web viewhydrologie.org

Floods – From Risk to Opportunity

Edited by Ali Chavoshian & Kuniyoshi TakeuchiCo-edited by Xiaotao Cheng, Erich Plate, Slobodan Simonovic, Stefan Uhlenbrook & Nigel Wright

IAHS Publ. 357 (2013) ISBN 978-1-907161-35-3, 470 + x pp. Price £96.00

The number of people exposed to devastating floods is expected to rise as the frequency of floods increases due to urbanization and population growth in flood-prone areas, land-use changes, climate change and sea level rise. A paradigm shift from focusing on emergency response and recovery to flood risk management is required to build the capacity necessary to cope with floods.

The process should be supported by vulnerability monitoring and development of tools such as standard measures of risk and preparedness in an integrated approach to improve capacity to deal with floods, taking advantage of their benefits while minimizing their social, economic and environmental risks.

This volume of papers selected from ICFM5 and by international authors, covers flood risk management, disaster management, forecasting and early warning, and management in different regions, and includes the ICFM5 statement.

Preface

With the frequency and variability of floods increasing due to urbanization, along with population growth in flood-prone areas, land-use changes, potential climate change and a rise in sea levels, the number of people exposed to devastating floods is expected to rise. Flood risk management actions are therefore increasingly required to build up the capacity necessary to cope with floods.

On 27–29 September 2011, the 5th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM5) was held in Tokyo, Japan. More than 250 participants travelled to Tokyo from 41 nations to join about 200 other participants from Japan to attend the conference. ICFM is the only recurring international conference focused solely on flood-related issues. The umbrella title of ICFM5 was “Floods: From Risk to Opportunity”. In order to implement this concept, a paradigm shift is necessary from focusing on emergency response and recovery to flood risk management. This process should be supported by vulnerability monitoring and development of tools such as standards to measure risk and preparedness level in an integrated approach in order to build capacity for better response to floods by taking advantage of their benefits while at the same time minimizing their social, economic and environmental risks.

The ICFM5 Secretariat at the International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) under the auspices of UNESCO received 417 abstracts covering all the announced topics. An international scientific committee reviewed all submitted abstracts for relevance to the ICFM5 objectives. Over 260 abstracts were selected for oral and poster presentation at the conference and authors of 130 selected abstracts were invited to submit their full papers in order to be considered for three post-conference publications, including this IAHS Red Book.

All submitted papers were peer-reviewed by external reviewers and the final 49 papers were selected for publication in this volume after they met all requirements made by reviewers. We know the other papers are a product of hard work with useful information and insights but had to limit the number of papers due to the publication capacity, and ask the authors for their understanding. The papers in this volume are published in five sections as follows:

–Section 1, with one introductory paper on Floods: From Risk to Opportunity and the ICFM5 Declaration

–Section 2, with 16 papers on Flood Risk Management (Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation)

–Section 3 with 10 papers on Flood Disaster Management (Preparedness, Emergency Response and Recovery)

–Section 4 with 14 papers on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems

–Section 5 with 8 papers on Flood Management in Different Climate Conditions and Geographic Zones

We would like to extend our great appreciation to all contributors to the success of ICFM5, with special thanks to the international scientific committee and co-editors of this publication for accepting our invitation to peer-review selected papers. Finally, we hope that this book promotes fruitful discussions on flood risk management and that outcomes will be soon put into practice to save more lives and livelihoods.

Editors-in-chiefAli Chavoshian

Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Narmak 16846-13114, Tehran, Iranand Member of Committee on Disaster Risk Management of WFEO, CTI Engineering, Japan

Kuniyoshi TakeuchiInternational Center for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Tsukuba, Japan

Contents

Preface by Ali Chavoshian & Kuniyoshi Takeuchi v

1 Introduction

Floods: From Risk to Opportunity Kuniyoshi Takeuchi & Ali Chavoshian 3

2 Flood Risk Management (Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation)

The Delta programme in the Netherlands: a long-term perspective on flood risk management Jos Van Alphen

13

Life safety criteria for flood protection standards Joost V. L. Beckers, Karin M. de Bruijn & Durk Riedstra

21

Flood risk management plans in Europe: experiences with their preparation and implementation William van Berkel & Jos Van Alphen

26

Gap analysis of the flood management system in Metro Manila, Philippines: a case study of the aftermath of Typhoon Ondoy Romeo Gilbuena, Jr, Akira Kawamura, Reynaldo Medina, Hideo Amaguchi & Naoko Nakagawa

32

A framework for flood impact assessment in urban areas Michael J. Hammond, Albert S. Chen, David Butler, Slobodan Djordjević & Natasa Manojlović

41

Characteristics of flood disaster and evacuation activities of residents at Amami Oshima Island, Japan Akihiro Hashimoto, Akira Tai, Hideo Oshikawa & Toshimitsu Komatsu

48

A comprehensive assessment of multilayered safety in flood risk management – the Dordrecht case study Frauke Hoss, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Bob Maaskant

57

On the implementation of flood-plain management plans on the Herbert and Johnstone rivers, Australia Mark Jempson, Bruce Leach & David Trotter

66

The VNK2-project: a fully probabilistic risk analysis for all major levee systems in the Netherlands Ruben Jongejan, Bob Maaskant, Wouter Ter Horst, Fred Havinga, Niels Roode & Harry Stefess

75

Optimal investment in emergency management in a multilayer flood risk framework B. Kolen & M. Kok

86

Long-term channel changes in the Mekong River: towards sustainable river channel management Naoki Miyazawa

98

Risk assessment method for flood control planning considering global climate change in urban river management Masaru Morita

107

Risk sharing in practice for Integrated Flood Management Masahiko Murase 117

Prediction of the effect of huge structures on eco-hydrological changes in Changjiang Basin Tadanobu Nakayama & David Shankman

127

Educational activities for urban flood damage reduction using unique facilities Keiichi Toda, Taisuke Ishigaki, Yasuyuki Baba & Taira Ozaki

135

Creating new opportunities by integrating water safety and spatial planning Ellen Tromp & F. H. M van de Ven

143

3 Flood Disaster Management (Preparedness, Emergency Response and Recovery)

Flash flood retention in headwater areas of the Natzschung River using small retarding basins Jens Bölscher, Achim Schulte, Christian Reinhardt & Robert Wenzel

153

The variability of ENSO and predictability of seasonal flooding: evidence from the Pacific Islands and Bangladesh Md. Rashed Chowdhury

166

Urban flooding management using the natural drainage system case study: Tehran, capital of Iran M. Ghahroudi Tali & M. A. Nezammahalleh

174

Multi-agent based flood evacuation simulation models considering the effect of congestion and obstructions on the pathway K. Hanajima, M. Nakashima, T. Hori & D. Nohara

181

Research on rainstorm-induced flood risk assessment in China based on 1-km grid data Dapeng Huang, Renhe Zhang, Zhiguo Huo, Fei Mao & Youhao E.

190

Flood risk management in a cold climate – experience in Norway Linmei Nie, Lars A. Roald, Sofie Mellegård & Čedo Maksimović

198

Performance of artificial wetland in removing contaminants from stormwater under tropical climate Mohd Noor Nur Asmaliza, M. S. Lariyah, A. Rozi & A. G. Aminuddin

208

Bed variation analysis using the sediment transport formula considering the effect of river width and cross-sectional form in the Ishikari River mouth Seiji Okamura, Kazunori Okabe & Shoji Fukuoka

217

Dealing with disasters: developing an integrated regional resilience strategy Yazmin Seda-Sanabria, Enrique Matheu & Robert Stephan

225

Prediction of potential outburst floods from a glacial lake due to moraine dam failure Badri Bhakta Shrestha, Hajime Nakagawa, Kenji Kawaike, Yasuyuki Baba & Hao Zhang

241

4 Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems

Impact of urbanization on flood vulnerability in shallow groundwater catchment Amila P. Basnayaka, R. Sarukkalige & I. Werellagama

255

A decision support framework for flood risk assessment: an application to the Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh Mukand S. Babel, S. H. M. Fakhruddin & Akiyuki Kawasaki

263

Rainfall–runoff modelling with data driven techniques: constraints and proper implementation Lekhangani Arunoda Basnayake & Vladan Babovic

273

The stochastic discharge forecast – creation, interpretation and other applications Lucie Březková & Miloš Starý

283

viii

Analysis of the “needs” of the users for the newly introduced X-Band MP (multi-parameter) radar N. Fujiwara, T. Yagami, N. Hashido, S. Moriyama, K. Araki & Y. Yonese

292

Evaluation of flood discharge hydrographs and bed variations in a channel network on the Ota River delta, Japan T. Gotoh, S. Fukuoka & R. Tanaka

300

Ensemble short-term rainfall–runoff prediction and its application in urban flood risk mapping Ratih Indri Hapsari, Satoru Oishi, Kengo Sunada, Tetsuya Sano & Dian Sisinggih

308

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in the Jajroud basin of Iran using a synoptic model Mahmoud Ahmadi, E. Fattahi & A. Noormohmmadi

320

Study on spatial-temporal distribution of rainstorm in China from 1961 to 2010 Fei Mao, Dapeng Huang, Renhe Zhang, Zhiguo Huo, E. Youhao & Huifei Jiang

328

Sequential data assimilation for streamflow forecasting using a distributed hydrologic model: particle filtering and ensemble Kalman filtering Seong Jin Noh, Yasuto Tachikawa, Michiharu Shiiba & Sunmin Kim

341

Effect of density of gauges on accuracy of merged GSMAP: case study of typhoon Morakot G. Ozawa, H. Inomata & K. Fukami

350

Flood warnings for infrastructure: tailored flood warning services Frazer Rhodes 357

Roles of natural levees in the Ara River alluvial fan on flood management Shigeru Saito & S. Fukuoka

368

Transboundary cooperation in flood forecasting and warning services within the international Morava River basin Eva Soukalová

377

5 Flood Management in Different Climate Conditions and Geographic Zones

A methodology for rapid inundation mapping for a megacity with sparse data: case of Mumbai, India K. Gupta & V. Nikam

385

The next generation tsunami hazard map Makoto Hada, Hirokazu Nakamura & Isamu Okaki

392

Assessment of rainstorm climate risk and rainstorm-induced agricultural disaster risk in east-central China Zhiguo Huo, Quanpei Wen, Zhenfeng Ma, Jingjing Xiao & Lei Zhang

405

Review on Japanese assistance of community-based management for flood disaster Mikio Ishiwatari, Junko Mimaki & Tomoko Shaw

416

Knowledge transfer in international cooperation projects: experiences from a Dutch–Romanian project J. Vinke-de Kruijf, S. J. M. H. Hulscher & J. T. A. Bressers

423

Integrated flood evacuation simulator considering time–space distributions of flood risk Kazumi Matsuo, Lumen Natainia & Fumihiko Yamada

435

Flood early warning system: sensors and internet B. E. Pengel, V. V. Krzhizhanovskaya, N. B. Melnikova, G. S. Shirshov, A. R. Koelewijn, A. L. Pyayt & I. I. Mokhov

445

People-centred approach in integrated flood risk management in Lower Mekong Basin Aslam Perwaiz

454

Key word index 463

Author index 467

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 3-10.

Floods: From Risk to Opportunity

KUNIYOSHI TAKEUCHI1 & ALI CHAVOSHIAN2,3

1 International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM) under the auspices of UNESCO, PWRI, 1-6 Minamihara, Tsukuba 305-8516, Japan [email protected] Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Narmak 16846-13114, Tehran, Iran3 Committee on Disaster Risk Management-World Federation of Engineering Organizations, CTI Engineering, 3-21-1 Nihonbashi, Tokyo 103-8430, Japan

Abstract “From risk to opportunity” implies that in facing risk, humanity has an ability not only to avoid it turning into a disaster, but also to use the threat as an opportunity to transform society into a higher level of sustainability. The means of transformation include increase of social capital in communities, promotion of development, both structural and non-structural, integrated with risk reduction and building resiliency. In the case of floods, this concept should be completed by best use of flood flows. In order to implement this concept, a paradigm shift is necessary from focusing on emergency response and recovery to risk management before disaster occurs. This process should be supported by vulnerability monitoring and development of tools such as standard scales for measuring risk and preparedness level in an integrated approach in order to build capacity for better response to floods by taking advantage of their benefits while at the same time minimizing their social, economic and environmental risks. This shift should be reflected in the post-Hyogo Framework for Action to start in 2015.

Key words disaster resiliency; flood risk management; IFM; risk to opportunity; sustainable society; standard scales of measuring risk and preparedness; social capital


The Delta programme in the Netherlands: a long-term perspective on flood risk management

JOS VAN ALPHEN Staff Delta Commissioner, PO Box 90653, 2509 LR, The Hague, The [email protected]

Abstract In September 2008, the Dutch Committee on Sustainable Coastal Development advised the development and implementation of a Delta Programme to adapt flood risk management (and freshwater supply) to climate change. On 1 February 2010 the Delta Commissioner was installed, in order to elaborate and implement this advice into a rolling-on Delta Programme. The Delta Programme will result in updated standards for flood protection and a policy-framework regarding flood-proof urban (re)development. The programme also includes the necessary measures for the short term (maintenance, improvement of “aging infrastructure”), framing these measures into the long-term perspective. The Delta Commissioner directs this multi-governmental process, monitors progress, reports to Parliament annually and takes the necessary steps when problems arise. From 2020 onwards, a Delta Fund of about 1 billion euros per year will provide stability in financial resources. The new Delta Act forms the legal basis for the implementation of the programme, the responsibilities of the Commissioner and the Delta Fund.Key words flood risk management; climate change; the Netherlands


Life safety criteria for flood protection standards

JOOST V. L. BECKERS1, KARIN M. DE BRUIJN1 & DURK RIEDSTRA2

1 Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, the [email protected] Rijkswaterstaat - Center for Water Management, PO Box 17, 8200 AA Lelystad, the Netherlands

Abstract The Dutch flood protection standards originate from the 1960s. As a result of economic growth and increase of the population over the past decades, these standards have possibly become insufficient to achieve the desired level of safety. Moreover, the EU Floods Directive requires each Member State to evaluate and reduce the flood risk. In line with this Directive, a risk-based approach for flood protection is being developed in the Netherlands, with safety standards that are based on both economic cost-benefit and life safety criteria. In order to support this new policy, a probabilistic risk assessment was performed for the main levee systems. This paper focuses on the life safety aspect. Two loss-of-life risk indicators are considered: the individual risk and the societal risk. These indicators give insight to, respectively, the most hazardous locations and the probability of a given number of fatalities during a single flood event.Key words flooding; risk; EU flood directive; individual risk; societal risk


Flood risk management plans in Europe: experiences with their preparation and implementation

WILLIAM VAN BERKEL1 & JOS VAN ALPHEN2

1 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Directorat General Spatial Planning and Water Management, PB 20905, 2500 EX The Hague, The [email protected] Staff Delta Commissioner, PO Box 90653, 2509 LR, The Hague, The Netherlands.

Abstract The European Floods Directive (FD, 2007/60/EU) requires Member States to define objectives for the management of flood risks in river basins, focusing on the reduction of potential adverse consequences of flooding for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity. Flood risk management comprises physical measures to reduce the likelihood and consequences of flooding and, where appropriate, non-structural initiatives. The first generation of these flood risk management plans (FRMPs) will become available in 2015. This paper presents the first experiences with the preparation and implementation of these FRMP’s in 20 European countries. Key words flood risk; management plan; implementation; European Floods Directive; water; rivers; groundwater; European commission


Gap analysis of the flood management system in Metro Manila, Philippines: a case study of the aftermath of Typhoon Ondoy

ROMEO GILBUENA, JR1, AKIRA KAWAMURA1, REYNALDO MEDINA2, HIDEO AMAGUCHI1 & NAOKO NAKAGAWA1

1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo Japan, 192-0397, 1-1 Minami-Ohsawa, Hachioji, Japan [email protected] Woodfields Consultants, Incorporated, 1102, 153 Kamias Road Extension, Kamias, Quezon City, Philippines

Abstract For decades, floods caused by heavy rains have repeatedly inundated critical areas in Metro Manila, which prompted the Philippine government to establish a flood management system consisting of both structural and non-structural measures. However, most of the operational flood mitigation infra-structure was proven inadequate during the onslaught of typhoon Ondoy. The storm brought rains that exceeded the rainfall intensities of the country’s previous typhoons. The aftermath of this disaster paints a bleak scenario for the highly urbanized Metro Manila as the effects of climate change increase the likelihood of storms having the same, or even higher, intensities as Ondoy. This study deals with the identification of gaps in Metro Manila’s flood management system using the records and observations made during and after typhoon Ondoy. The primary focus of this study was on the performance of the flood control structures, flood forecasting and early warning systems in Metro Manila. The flood control structures were assessed based on the results of field inspection and observations during and after the storm. The flood forecasting and warning systems were evaluated using the information available from various government offices, and from the results of key informant interviews and surveys. The study revealed that factors such as inadequate hydraulic design of the flood control structures in the rivers and drainage systems, lack of an accurate flood forecasting system and lack of proper maintenance of the flood warning system, contributed to the unprecedented flooding on 26 September 2009, which inundated around 34% of Metro Manila. The study concludes by stressing the need for distributed and enhanced flood mitigation programmes, planned and constructed flood control structures, and establishment of effective flood forecasting and early warning systems. The existing flood management programmes should be reviewed and revised in accordance with a new safety level for flood prevention and control.Key words flood management; gap analysis; Metro Manila, Philippines; typhoon Ondoy


A framework for flood impact assessment in urban areas

MICHAEL J. HAMMOND1, ALBERT S. CHEN1, DAVID BUTLER1, SLOBODAN DJORDJEVIĆ1 & NATASA MANOJLOVIĆ2

1 Centre for Water Systems, North Park Road, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK [email protected] Technical University of Hamburg-Harburg, Denickestraße 22 (I), 21073 Hamburg, Germany

Abstract Urban flooding affects millions of people worldwide, and with urban populations projected to grow, this problem is likely to become more pressing in the future. Increasing urban flood resilience through the implementation of resilience strategies is a way to improve the management of flood risk. So that the effectiveness of various resilience strategies can be evaluated, it is vital that the impacts of flooding can be assessed in a comprehensive and consistent manner. To this end, a framework has been developed that will incorporate all the major impacts of floods. It has long been noted that the development of such a framework is fraught with difficulties, but it is necessary if we are to make progress in understanding the wider impacts of flooding. In this paper, the developing flood impact assessment framework is outlined, as well as laying out the principles that will underpin future research. Key words flood management; flood risk; impact assessment; flood resilience


Characteristics of flood disaster and evacuation activities of residents at Amami Oshima Island, Japan

AKIHIRO HASHIMOTO, AKIRA TAI, HIDEO OSHIKAWA & TOSHIMITSU KOMATSUDepartment of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Kyushu University, 819-0395, Japana hashimo @ civil.kyushu-u.ac.jp

Abstract This paper describes the characteristics of the flood disaster and the evacuation activities of residents in the Sumiyo River basin in Amami Oshima Island, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, on 20 October 2010. A record-breaking rainfall amount was observed at the raingauge of the Sumiyo sub-office located in the southern part of Amami Oshima Island. The hourly precipitation exceeded 130 mm for the time period between 11:00 and 13:00 h on 20 October 2011. This torrential rain caused disasters such as flood inundation, landslides and debris flows all over Amami Oshima Island. There were three casualties, who were elderly people, in this heavy rainfall. A hearing investigation was carried out in the Sumiyo River basin in order to find out the reasons why the number of victims was low despite the record torrential rain. According to the hearing investigation, the local community worked so effectively that residents helped each other and urged themselves to evacuate in its early stage.Key words Amami Oshima Island, Japan; Sumiyo River, Japan; torrential rainfall; flood disaster; evacuation; local community


A comprehensive assessment of multilayered safety in flood risk management – the Dordrecht case study

FRAUKE HOSS1, SEBASTIAAN N. JONKMAN1,3 & BOB MAASKANT2

1 Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, PB 5048, 2600GA Delft, The [email protected] HKV Consultants, PB 2120, 8203 AC Lelystad, The Netherlands3 Royal Haskoning, PB 8520, 3009 AM Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract In the year 2009, the concept of Multilayered Safety (MLS) was introduced in the Netherlands as a possible way to manage the flood risk. MLS consists of three layers: (1) Prevention (dikes, room for the river, etc.); (2) Spatial Solutions (flood-proofing houses, elevating houses, re-locating, etc.); and (3) Crisis Management (evacuation, warning, etc.). The main characteristic of MLS is the combination of probability- and loss-reducing measures. Combining measures can be technically tricky as it becomes more difficult to oversee the combined effect of those measures. Thus, in the first part of the study a framework was developed to gain insight into the combined effect of flood management measures of different types. MLS will only become a reality if it is more cost-efficient than the standard approach. This was investigated in the second part of the study. The Island of Dordrecht in the Netherlands was used as a case study. This area has about 120 000 inhabitants and is threatened by flooding from the North Sea and the River Waal, or a combination thereof. The cost-effectiveness of measures has been evaluated by comparing investment costs and the reduction in economic risk and risk of loss of life. As the cost-efficiency is found to be dependent on the initial safety level, it is concluded that in the Netherlands MLS only has the potential to supplement the existing flood protection. In areas with high levels of protection, as in Dordrecht, MLS is fit to add to, rather than replace, the prevailing prevention approach. However, MLS does introduce the option to better customize flood risk management to local circumstances. Additionally, this characteristic makes MLS an alternative where the prevention approach falls short of providing sufficient safety.Key words flood risk; flood risk management; multilayered safety; consequence-reducing measures; prevention; Dordrecht, The Netherlands


On the implementation of floodplain management plans on the Herbert and Johnstone rivers, Australia

MARK JEMPSON1, BRUCE LEACH2 & DAVID TROTTER3

1 BMT WBM Pty Ltd, PO Box 604, Collins Street West, Victoria 8007, Australia [email protected] Hinchinbrook Shire Council, PO Box 366, Ingham, Queensland 4850, Australia 3 Cassowary Coast Regional Council, PO Box 887, Innisfail, Queensland 4860, Australia

Abstract: The Herbert and Johnstone river catchments are located in tropical North Queensland in Australia, and have catchment areas of approximately 10 000 km2 and 1600 km2, respectively. Their floodplains are predominantly utilised for agricultural purposes, but there are also many townships that are subject to frequent flooding. Floodplain management plans for both river systems were completed in 2003. Average annual damages (AAD) for the Lower Herbert River were estimated to be AUD$4.3 million, and for the Lower Johnstone River AUD$3.0 million. Floodplain management plans were developed to reduce the flood damages in urban areas, and to reduce the risk to human life. Many of the recommendations of the plans have now been implemented, and subsequently there have been several floods on both rivers. The implementation of the management plans and the effectiveness of the management measures are reviewed, and recommendations are made for consideration in the development of floodplain management plans.Key words flooding; floodplain management; flood risk; flood damage; levees; floodgates; Herbert River, Australia; Johnstone River, Australia; URBS, TUFLOW


The VNK2-project: a fully probabilistic risk analysis for all major levee systems in the Netherlands

RUBEN JONGEJAN1,2,3, BOB MAASKANT1,3,5, WOUTER TER HORST1,3,4, FRED HAVINGA1,5, NIELS ROODE1 & HARRY STEFESS1

1 VNK2 Project Office, Rijkswaterstaat, PO Box 24094, 2526 LA, Utrecht, The [email protected] Jongejan Risk Management Consulting, 2628DX, Delft, The Netherlands3 Delft University of Technology, Hydraulic Engineering Section, PO Box 5048, 2628CN, Delft, The Netherlands4 Infram, PO Box 16, 8316 ZG, Marknesse, The Netherlands5 HKV Consultants, PO Box 2120, 8203 AC, Lelystad, The Netherlands

Abstract Quantitative risk analysis is a powerful tool for assessing flood risks. The VNK2-project is a large-scale, fully probabilistic risk analysis for the low-lying parts of the Netherlands. It started in 2006 and draws upon decades of research and development. Flood probabilities are quantified in a Bayesian framework, taking into account the uncertainties related to loading conditions, the strength of flood defences, the outcomes of physical models, and the human factor. Economic and fatality risks are considered. These are expressed in various forms, ranging from population-averaged values to individual exposures. The project’s results can be used to evaluate alternatives for reducing risks, inform the political debate about new safety standards, prioritize interventions, and (re)direct research efforts to reduce important sources of uncertainty.Key words flood risk; VNK2; quantitative risk analysis


Optimal investment in emergency management in a multilayer flood risk framework

B. KOLEN1,2 & M. KOK1,3

1 HKV Consultants, PO Box 2010, 8203 AC Lelystad, The Netherlands [email protected]; [email protected] Radbout University Nijmegen, The Netherlands3 Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract Flood risk reduction can be obtained in many ways and by many measures. A common approach in the Netherlands is to divide the measures into three layers: flood prevention, land-use planning and emergency management. An important question is how to divide the investment between these layers. In this paper we follow an economic approach: the selection of measures is guided by minimising the total costs and maximising the benefits. It can be concluded that in the Dutch context, the main part of the investment is in flood prevention, but it is also optimal to spend a part of the budget (<5%) on emergency management. The smaller the optimal flooding probability, the smaller the part of the investment invested in emergency management. The method developed is based on a two-layer approach, but it can be extended by adding layers such as land-use planning. Key words flood risk management; cost benefit analysis; multi-layer safety

Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 98-106.

Long-term channel changes in the Mekong River: towards sustainable river channel management

NAOKI MIYAZAWA Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi, 4-3 Takeda, Kofu, 400-8511, Japanmiyazawa @ yamanashi.ac.jp

Abstract A channel-evolution model for calculating long-term channel changes of a meandering river was developed using an existing fluid-dynamic model, and was applied to quantify channel changes of two meandering reaches in the Mekong River. The novel point of the present work is the linking of a state-of-the-art meandering planform evolution model with observed morphological changes within large-scale sand-bed rivers in tropical monsoon regions, which are highly dynamic systems, and assessment of the model performance. Unstable reaches of the Mekong River could be identified from Hydrographic Atlas GIS data in 1992 and 1993 and remotely sensed images taken in 2004 and 2005. The instability caused: (i) bank erosion and accretion of meander bends, and (ii) movement or development of bars and changes in the flow around the bars. The remote sensing measurements indicate that maximum erosion occurred downstream of the maximum curvature of the river-centre line in both reaches. The channel migration coefficients of the reaches were calibrated by comparing remote-sensing measurements and model simulations. The difference in the migration coefficients between both reaches was assumed to depend on the difference in bank height rather than the geotechnical properties of floodplain sediments. Applications for sustainable river channel management of the Mekong River are discussed.Key words channel change; Mekong River; river channel management; remote sensing; channel-evolution model


Risk assessment method for flood control planning

considering global climate change in urban river management

MASARU MORITAShibaura Institute of Technology, 3-9-14 Toyosu, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-8548, [email protected]

Abstract This study presents a methodology for assessing flood risks, dealing in particular with decreased risk achieved by flood protection projects and increased risk due to climate change in a framework of flood risk management for urban rivers. “Flood risk” is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. Flood inundations and their monetary damages are calculated with the Flood Damage Prediction Model (FDPM) using XP-SWMM. The increased cost of risk caused by climate change can be estimated from the difference between the potential damages before and after the predicted climate change using the Return Period Shift method. The change in risk cost is finally interpreted as a Flood Risk Impact Factor (FRIF) defined as the ratio of the change in risk cost to the present risk cost. The factor evaluates the changes in flood risk due to different causes using the same scale.Key words flood risk assessment; climate change; return period shift method; flood risk impact factor; urban river management


Risk sharing in practice for Integrated Flood Management

MASAHIKO MURASETakeo River Office, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), 745 Showa, Takeo-cho, Takeo, Saga 843-0023, JapanKFA06115 @ nifty.com

Abstract Under Integrated Flood Management (IFM), the flood risk management should be a combination of measures that address risk reduction, retention and transfer through a strategic mix of structural and non-structural measures for preparedness, response and recovery. Practical flood management depends on how to share the cost of taking the risk placed on society among governments, interested parties, communities and individuals. This study analyses the actual flood management in a local basin along the Rokkakugawa River, Japan, from the perspective of risk sharing. In th is basin, the national government bore the costs for emergency recovery of 12 000 million yen after the 1980 flood and 30 000 million yen after the 1990 1/100-year flood, which can be considered as risk transfer. An annual budget has traditionally been allocated for risk reduction, but should include more risk retention towards residual risks. Community participation, through collaborative activities like mapping, contributes to risk sharing and implementation of IFM in actual situations. Key words risk sharing; flood management; IFM; community participation; Japan

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 127-134

Prediction of the effect of huge structures on eco-hydrological changes in Changjiang Basin

TADANOBU NAKAYAMA1,2 & DAVID SHANKMAN3

1 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan

nakat @ nies.go.jp 2 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH), Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK3 Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487-0322, USA

Abstract Increasing frequency of severe floods on the middle and lower Changjiang (Yangtze) River during the past few decades is attributed to abnormal monsoon rainfall, various landscape changes and levee construction. Here, the process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model was developed further for controlled discharge release at reservoirs to predict the impact of the Three-Gorges Dam (TGD) and South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) on eco-hydrological changes. The model predicted that TGD might promote flood risk during the early summer monsoon (contrary to original justifications), and that morphological change over the long-term would promote the flood risk. This indicates the importance of managing both flood discharge and sediment deposition for the entire basin. Furthermore, time-integrated NDVI (TINDVI) estimated from satellite images during the past two decades showed generally decreasing trends beside the lakes, which indicates that the increase in lake reclamation and the resultant decrease in rice production were closely related to the hydrologic changes.Key words Changjiang River; eco-hydrology model; flood risk; South-to-North Water Transfer Project; Three-Gorges Dam


Educational activities for urban flood damage reduction using unique facilities

KEIICHI TODA1, TAISUKE ISHIGAKI2, YASUYUKI BABA3 & TAIRA OZAKI2 1 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho Uji-shi, Kyoto 611-0011, [email protected] Department of Civil, Environmental and Applied System Engineering, Kansai University, 3-3-35, Yamate-cho Suita-shi, Osaka 564-8680, Japan 3 Shirahama Oceanographic Observatory, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, 2347-6, Katata, Shirahama-cho, Nishimuro-gun, Wakayama 649-2201, Japan

Abstract We introduce our recent educational activities for urban flood damage reduction using a real-size model and a miniature model, and discuss their effects. In underground inundation by urban flooding, people must evacuate immediately via a staircase against a swift inflow, and people caught in basements must attempt to evacuate through doors held shut by hydrostatic pressure. In evacuation from underground spaces during flooding, it is very important to understand the critical conditions of evacuation via a staircase or by opening a door. We executed evacuation experiments using real-sized models. Low-lying streets are common sites of accidents with submerged cars and severe damage, including human damage, occasionally occurs under flooding conditions. Thus, we also executed evacuation experiments from a real-sized submerged car. We obtained the critical conditions for evacuation of inundated underground spaces and submerged cars. At the same time, we found that these experiments are very effective for education for urban flood damage reduction. People can feel how severe the flow is in a staircase, and how large the hydrostatic pressure exerted on a room door or a car door is. The experience of an evacuation experiment reminds them of the strength of water and importance of prompt evacuation. As the above evacuation experiments are very effective for enhancing disaster prevention awareness, we aim to help people to experience them during university events or educational activities. In addition, we made a miniature model of an urban area with a river, which can demonstrate urban inundation by river overflow and heavy rainfall using a small pump. The miniature model includes an underground space and an underground storage pond. The former part can express the flow configuration of underground inundation, and the latter part can show the good effects of underground storage. Not only children but also adults can learn about the urban flood mechanism and its countermeasures.Key words flood damage prevention; underground inundation; submerged car; evacuation experiments; education activities for disaster prevention

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Floods: From Risk to Opportunity (IAHS Publ. 357, 2013), 143-150

Creating new opportunities by integrating water safety and spatial planning

ELLEN TROMP1 & F. H. M. VAN DE VEN1,2

1 Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The [email protected] Delft University of Technology, Department of Water Management, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract The Netherlands is world renowned for its continuous battle against water. In the last decades more and more buildings have been built, leaving little space for the water. In order to be able to anticipate climate change and to ensure that water aspects are incorporated into spatial plans, the WaterCheck has been designed. So in the last decades, the role and importance of water has been incorporated into spatial planning in the Netherlands. In this paper more information regarding the new opportunities for integrating water safety and spatial planning in relation to flood risk management are explored, possibilities for temporary use of land, multifunctional flood defences and the role of knowledge in decision-making process are explored. Water managers are currently adjusting their various roles in spatial planning in the Netherlands and across Europe. Moreover, an overview of relevant Dutch policy is provided. Key words flood management; flood risk; spatial planning; integrated assessment framework; water governance


Flash flood retention in headwater areas of the Natzschung River using small retarding basins

JENS BÖLSCHER, ACHIM SCHULTE, CHRISTIAN REINHARDT & ROBERT WENZELInstitute of Geographical Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, Malteserstraße 74-100, D-12249 Berlin, [email protected]

Abstract The concept of decentralised flood protection measures is based on the idea to localize and use the natural capability of a catchment to retard runoff as early as possible and at several places at the same time by means of a combination of different small-scale measures. Because common flood protection management mostly focuses on the downstream catchment regions, the question arises if for headwater areas any opportunities exist to mitigate flash floods. The headwater areas of the Ore Mountains in Germany are often one agent triggering flash floods in downstream valleys. Against the background of severe damages caused by flash floods in the past, the hydrological effect of small retarding basins on flood generation was analysed for the case study of the Natzschung River. The modelled scenarios indicate that the use of small basins has a distinct and local impact on the reduction and time shift of peak discharge.Key words decentralised flood protection; flash flood retention; retarding basin; Ore Mountains, Germany;

rainfall–runoff model


The variability of ENSO and predictability of seasonal flooding: evidence from the Pacific Islands and Bangladesh

MD. RASHED CHOWDHURY1,2

1 Principal Research Scientist, Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC), Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR), University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA 2 Cooperating Graduate Faculty, Urban and Regional Planning, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA [email protected]

Abstract This study is an overview of the science of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and its correlation with local climate data (i.e. sea level, floods) on seasonal time scales in different ENSO-sensitive geographic regions. The objective is to visit some “hotspots” of climate hazards (i.e. US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) and Bangladesh) and emphasize the role of an ENSO-based operational framework for forecasting, warning and response opportunities. Findings reveal that the sea level variability in the USAPI region (henceforth, USAPI) and flooding in Bangladesh are sensitive to ENSO. In the USAPI, the variability of sea level and consequential flooding is correlated to tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with lead times of approximately several seasons or so. Similarly, the seasonal flooding in Bangladesh is also correlated to Pacific SSTs with lead times of several months or so. The ENSO-based seasonal forecasts in the USAPI and Bangladesh have been found to be a skilful application for research and outreach. Currently, the operational climate forecasting and warning response scheme in the USAPI region is fully instrumental. The success of the forecast method in the USAPI can be applied as a model to other similar climate sensitive regions. Currently ENSO-based seasonal forecasts are just beginning in Bangladesh; however, like the USAPI region, Bangladesh can benefit by developing potential prediction schemes utilizing ENSO and local climate data.Key words ENSO; sea level; flooding; Pacific Islands; Bangladesh


Urban flooding management using the natural drainage system case study: Tehran, capital of Iran

M. GHAHROUDI TALI & M. A. NEZAMMAHALLEH Physical Geography Department, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran [email protected]

Abstract The natural drainage system could be used for management of urban flooding in Tehran City, the capital of Iran. Disregarding the natural drainage networks during urban development has caused flooding issues in this city. The purpose of the study is to find the areas where watercourses are incompetent for flood control. The HydroModel tool was applied to “burn” the digital elevation model (DEM) through flood collection network using Agree DEM in ArcGIS. The runoff coefficient and Curve Number (CN) derived from land-use data were used to calculate surface runoff with the SCS Model. The distance between the natural network and current one was calculated with the Near Function. The results indicate that the maximum distance between the natural drainage system and the flood collection network is where flows divert towards the east and west. These effects are greater in the north due to steep slopes and higher runoff, and in the south and centre due to covered canals and the sewage system. Key words natural drainage; Tehran, Iran; flood; urban runoff collection network


Multi-agent based flood evacuation simulation models considering the effect of congestion and obstructions on the pathway

K. HANAJIMA1, M. NAKASHIMA2, T. HORI3 & D. NOHARA3

1 Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, 611-0011 Kyoto, Japanhanajima.kengo.27a @ st.kyoto-u.ac.jp 2 Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto University, 611-0011 Kyoto, Japan 3 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, 611-0011 Kyoto, Japan

Abstract In flood hazardous situations the effect of congestion and obstructions on people’s walking speed may be crucial in the evacuation process, especially in urbanized areas. In order to simulate these situations, node and arc expression of the street network is not enough because this kind of one dimensional expression cannot deal with the actions of passing and avoiding the other evacuees. In this study, two types of evacuation simulation models, which express the streets as a sequence of rectangles, were developed and tested. One uses the experimental relation between crowd density and walking speed. The other uses rule-based collision-avoiding actions of evacuees. The performances of those two models have been compared in several simulation results in actual flood-plain areas in Japan.

Key words flood evacuation; evacuation route congestion; flood hazard map; multi-agent systems; urban flood


Research on rainstorm-induced flood risk assessment in China based on 1 km grid data

DAPENG HUANG, RENHE ZHANG, ZHIGUO HUO, FEI MAO & YOUHAO E.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, 100081, Beijing, Chinahuozhigg @ cams.cma.gov.cn

Abstract Hazard degree of rainstorm, elevation, variation of topography, and river and lake were calculated at a scale of 1 km grid based on the 1961–2008 daily precipitation data from 560 meteorological stations in China, SRTM 90 m elevation data and 1:1 000 000 vector data of river and lake. Then rainstorm-induced flood hazard in China was assessed with weighted sum method. Degree of vulnerability of cropland area percentage, population density and GDP density at the 1 km grid scale were calculated by using 1 km grid land-use data, 1 km grid population data and 1 km grid GDP data. Then rainstorm-induced flood vulnerability in China was assessed with weighted sum method. Finally, 1 km grid rainstorm-induced flood risk in China was assessed with the risk assessment model of “Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability”. Rainstorm-induced flood risk assessment in China based on 1 km grid data can overcome the limitation of homogenized socio-economic factors in the same administrative unit, which existed in previous researches on flood risk assessment, and reveals the spatial pattern of flood risk in more detail.Key words rainstorm-induced flood risk; flood hazard; flood vulnerability; 1 km grid data; China


Flood risk management in a cold climate – experience in Norway

LINMEI NIE1, LARS A. ROALD2, SOFIE MELLEGÅRD1 & ČEDO MAKSIMOVIĆ3

1 SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, Forskningsveien 3B. PO Box 124 Blindern, 0314 Oslo, [email protected] Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, PO Box 5091, Majorstua, 0301 Oslo, Norway3 Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK

Abstract Studies of historical large floods in Norway show that the major triggering factors of floods are rainfall and combinations of rainfall with snowmelt, avalanche or ice run. Because of its geographical location, different regions in Norway have a cold or mild climate, or both; precipitation may come alternatively as rainfall or snowfall. Most rivers have two or more flood seasons. Spring floods are the results of snowmelt, often in combination with rainfall; while autumn floods are due to intense rainfalls or storms. Because of the variation of precipitation with temperature and snowmelt water, impacts of climate change on floods are extremely sensitive in cold climates. Comparing the existing common flood risk management approach with the specific problems in the cold climate, and taking into account the emerging risk due to the dynamic changes in climate and in society and requirements for adaptation, this paper presents a comprehensive approach for flood risk management. Case studies in large river basins and urban catchments are presented to demonstrate the difference of changes and consequences in rural areas and urban catchments. Moreover, the need for new approaches, special models and tools to handle the problems and requirements for data with appropriate resolutions are addressed.Key words climate change; cold climate; flood risk management; snowmelt; adaptation


Performance of artificial wetland in removing contaminants from storm water under tropical climate

MOHD NOOR NUR ASMALIZA1, M. S. LARIYAH2, A. ROZI3 & A. G. AMINUDDIN3

1 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Lintasan Semarak, 26400 Bandar Tun Abdul Razak Jengka Pahang, Malaysia (formerly at REDAC Universiti Sains Malaysia Kampus Kejuruteraan Seri Ampangan) [email protected] Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional,, Km7, Jalan,UNITEN–IKRAM, 43009 Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia3 River Engineering and Urban Drainage Research Centre (REDAC) Universiti Sains Malaysia Engineering Campus, Seri Ampangan, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

Abstract Rapid growth has resulted in increased storm water flow into receiving waters, with increases in flooding through drainage of storm water runoff from urban areas to receiving water bodies. The design philosophy of the conventional storm water drainage system was based on solving localized floods, either by transferring excessive flow in drainage systems downstream by upgrading the drainage system, or relieving localized problems by constructing storm overflows. In response to these issues there are needs for a paradigm shift in the way storm water is managed. There are various Best Management Practices (BMPs) techniques which can be used to control storm water runoff to achieve the target for water quality index similar to that before the development started. The artificial wetland system is part of the sustainable urban drainage system and this system has a main function in water quality improvement. The objective of this study was to determine the removal efficiency of contaminants in urban storm water by a wetland constructed in the Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) Penang catchment. The result showed that the average removal efficiency of BOD was 9.7–80%, DO was 6.5–17.8%, turbidity was 25.9–30.0% and TP was 24–46%. In addition, strong positive correlations were found between water quality parameters at the inlet and water quality parameters at the outlet. However, a weak positive correlation between DO concentration at the inlet with BOD concentration at the inlet was identified throughout this study.Key words artificial wetland; water quality; removal efficiency; storm water; urban drainage


Bed variation analysis using the sediment transport formula considering the effect of river width and cross-sectional form in the Ishikari River mouth

SEIJI OKAMURA1, KAZUNORI OKABE2 & SHOJI FUKUOKA3

1 IDEA Consultants, Inc., 3-15-1, Komazawa, Setagaya-ku, Tokyo, Japanseijiokamura5 @ gmail.com 2 Hokkaido Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2-1-3, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan3 Research and Development Initiative, Chuo University, 1-13-31214, Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract For river management, it is important to estimate the sediment discharge rate and the degree of bed variations during floods. Many of the previous sediment transport formulae have been proposed based on results by experimental channels. Therefore, they cannot estimate well the sediment discharge rate in rivers because of the complicated channel shapes and bed forms. It is necessary to calculate the sediment discharge rate appropriately to improve the accuracy of bed variation analysis. Fukuoka (2010) thought that stable cross-sectional scales of alluvial rivers (such as width and depth) are determined by physical quantities which indicate characteristics of basins (such as discharge, river bed slope and river bed material). He then derived formulae between dimensionless quantities of width, depth and discharge using field observed data by dimensional analysis. Based on the above analysis, he also derived the bed load formula considering the effect of river width and cross-sectional form using field observed data. In this study, we develop a bed variation analysis with the Fukuoka’s bed load formula to calculate the 1981 flood of the Ishikari River that caused large bed scouring at the river mouth. We compare calculated results between the bed load formula of Fukuoka (2010) and the previous formulae of Ashida & Michiue (1972) and Sato et al. (1958) for the amount of bed load discharge rates during the flood and the bed forms after the flood. As a result, the cross-sectional bed forms at meandering channel are well reproduced when we use the bed load formulae of Fukuoka (2010) and Sato et al. (1958). This indicates that these bed load formulae can calculate the amount of bed load discharge rate appropriately in the case of the Ishikari River mouth.Key words Fukuoka’s bed load formula; bed variation analysis; Fukuoka’s equation; river mouth


Dealing with disasters: developing an integrated regional resilience strategy

YAZMIN SEDA-SANABRIA1, ENRIQUE MATHEU2 & ROBERT STEPHAN3

1 National Program Manager, Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience Program, Office of Homeland Security, Directorate of Civil Works, US Army Corps of Engineers, Headquarters, Washington, DC 20314, [email protected] Chief, Chief, Critical Lifelines Branch, Sector Outreach and Programs Division, Office of Infrastructure Protection, National Protection and Programs Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC 20598, USA3 Executive Vice President, CRA, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia 22302, USA

Abstract Public-private partnerships can serve as an effective mechanism to collectively strengthen community disaster preparedness and critical infrastructure resilience. This process involves multiple intersecting elements, including Federal, State, regional, local, and private-sector stakeholders, each with unique operating conditions and risks within its own environment. The 2010 Dams Sector Exercise

Series (DSES-10) represents an example of the type of public-private effort that can lead to enhanced resilience on a regional scale. This paper discusses the findings and outcomes resulting from the DSES-10 effort, including its capstone Regional Resilience Strategy. The strategy was designed to assist public and private stakeholders in the identification of integrated post-disaster recovery solutions with respect to a catastrophic flood event, prioritization of actions to improve regional disaster resilience, and development of sustainable public-private partnerships to enhance planning and multi-jurisdictional coordination in the context of a wide range of potential threats and hazards.Key words flood risk; critical infrastructure; resilience; DSES; dams


Prediction of potential outburst floods from a glacial lake due to moraine dam failure

BADRI BHAKTA SHRESTHA1, HAJIME NAKAGAWA2, KENJI KAWAIKE2, YASUYUKI BABA3 & HAO ZHANG2

1 International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute, Minamihara 1-6, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8516, Japanbabhash @ gmail.com 2 Ujigawa Open Laboratory, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Shimomisu, Yoko-oji, Fushimi, Kyoto 612-8235, Japan3 Shirahama Oceanographic Observatory, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, 2347-6, Katata, Shirahama, Nishimuro, Wakayama 649-2201, Japan

Abstract Flood and sediment disasters are frequently caused by outbursts from glacial lakes in the Himalayas of South Asia and other glacier regions of the world. The resulting floods from the glacial lake outburst can cause catastrophic flooding in downstream areas, with serious damage to lives and property. Therefore, there is a pressing need to investigate the outburst of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. In this study, a numerical model was developed to compute the characteristics of glacial lake outburst due to moraine dam failure by seepage and water overtopping. To compute the pore-water pressure in the dam and slope stability of the dam, a seepage model and a slope stability model were incorporated into a numerical model of flow and dam surface erosion. The numerical model was verified with experimental results. The simulated results of the outburst discharge, variations of moisture inside the dam and failure surface of the dam were consistent with experimental results. Using the developed numerical model, the potential outburst floods from Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal were predicted with various multi-scenarios.Key words glacial lake outburst; numerical model; Tsho Rolpa glacial lake; potential flood; prediction


Impact of urbanization on flood vulnerability in a shallow groundwater catchment

AMILA P. BASNAYAKA1, R. SARUKKALIGE1 & I. WERELLAGAMA2

1 Department of Civil Engineering, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Australia [email protected] Department of Civil Engineering, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka

Abstract Rapid urbanization of modern cities has changed their urban hydrology leading to urban floods. Assessment of flood vulnerability in urban catchments is complicated with urban infrastructure. Urban hydrology of the Central Catchment, size 248 ha in a rapidly urbanizing city, Canning Vale in

Western Australia was assessed using a numerical model. The study combines 2D overland flow elements and 1D drainage networks to represent urban catchment. The model was used to investigate the impact of the land use changes, presence of shallow groundwater, and urban infrastructure on urban hydrology. Results show that shallow groundwater plays a main role in urban flood process in Canning Vale. Results of the study were used to develop flood vulnerability maps while recommending the necessary improvements to the urban storm water system, and will assist local city council decision-makers in coming up with better land management concepts to minimize anthropogenic stress.Key words stormwater management; 2D modelling; urban hydrology; flood mapping; Western Australia


A decision support framework for flood risk assessment: an application to the Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh

MUKAND S. BABEL1, S. H. M. FAKHRUDDIN2 & AKIYUKI KAWASAKI1 1 Water Engineering and Management (WEM), School of Engineering and Technology (SET), Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), [email protected] Regional Integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning Center (RIMES), AIT Campus, Thailand

Abstract Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. However, the advances in generating hazard risk information have not yet been incorporated into operational forecast systems and consequently, operational forecasts have not been integrated into decision making processes in order to reduce disaster risks. This article aims to design location-specific user-need based flood forecast products on different time scales for reducing flood risks. Using 1–10 days multiple weather ensemble (EPS) forecasts of the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF), integrating hydrological models, and combining these with GIS and local user needs, the decision support system (DSS) is designed to interpret, translate, and communicate science-based risk information into user-friendly early warning information products to assist emergency managers and decision makers. The DSS interface allows users to interactively specify the objectives and criteria that are relevant to a particular situation, and obtain the management options (strategies) that are possible, and the exogenous influences (scenarios) that should be taken into account before policy planning and decision making. The proposed framework is applied to a pilot area in the Brahmaputra River basin in Bangladesh for the agricultural sector.Key words ensembles probabilistic forecasts; flood risk; decision support system; community response


Rainfall–runoff modelling with data driven techniques: constraints and proper implementation

LEKHANGANI ARUNODA BASNAYAKE1 & VLADAN BABOVIC1,2

1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, E1A-07-03, no.1 Engineering Drive 2, Singapore [email protected] 2 Singapore-Delft Water Alliance, EW1-02-05, no.2 Engineering Drive 2, Singapore 117577

Abstract Data driven models (DDMs) are widely recognized as being an important tool for decision support systems. Nonlinear time series techniques are widely applied in hydrological process analysis. DDMs are primarily based on observations and therefore they are sensitive to the strong autocorrelation of observed time series data. This constraint may worsen the forecasting accuracy. In this study, we address the effect of autoregressive components on nonlinear time series forecasting. The performance of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and linear stochastic models in predicting runoff have been

investigated for different time intervals. Adjacent differencing provides much better results with refined data and this is significant in extended forecasting horizons. We found that ANN performs slightly better than the linear models. This is because a single ANN model is not sufficient to predict all runoff generation instances.Key words rainfall–runoff modelling; artificial neural networks; linear stochastic models; forecasting accuracy; data time interval


The stochastic discharge forecast – creation, interpretation and other applications

LUCIE BŘEZKOVÁ1,2 & MILOŠ STARÝ1

1 Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Veveří 95, 60200 Brno, Czech [email protected] Czech Hydrometeorological Institute – regional office Brno, Kroftova 43, 61667 Brno, Czech Republic

Abstract The deterministic discharge forecast calculated by hydrological models is now a common product of the Flood Forecasting Service in the Czech Republic. However, the deterministic forecast does not describe the determination which must be considered not only during the creation of the flow forecast, but mainly within the interpretation of the final predicted hydrograph. The deterministic forecast is a great simplification of the real conditions in the catchment taking into account only one possible (although the most probable) scenario of the future development of the meteorological and hydrological situation. The stochastic flow forecast based on simulation of many probable meteorological scenarios (all members of the meteorological ensemble) aims to describe the spread of the possible flow developments during the predicted period. The paper describes the generator of the random fields of meteorological quantities – the inputs of the hydrological model. The sets of precipitation, temperature and snow fields cover the estimated uncertainty of the measured and predicted quantities. The coinciding set of discharge forecasts is then evaluated. The case studies of floods which hit the Dyje catchment in 2002 and 2006 show the application of the proposed method. Whereas the stochastic flow forecast is not very common in operation, attention is also paid to the correct interpretation of the stochastic flow forecast and to other uses of this product. The method has been tested in operation in the Dyje catchment since 2009, within the Flood Forecasting Service ensured by the Czech Hydro-meteorological Institute.Key words flood; operative discharge forecast; stochastic forecast; Monte Carlo


Analysis of the “needs” of the users for the newly introduced X-Band MP (multi-parameter) radar

N. FUJIWARA, T. YAGAMI, N. HASHIDO, S. MORIYAMA, K. ARAKI & Y. YONESECTI Engineering Co., Ltd., 3-21-1 Nihombashi Hamacho Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-8430, [email protected]

Abstract It is envisaged that the newly introduced X-Band MP (multi parameter) radar will provide higher precision rainfall information compared to the conventional radar, contributing to river and disaster management in Japan. The objective of this research is to analyse the “needs” of the users for the MP radar from the perspectives of river managers, municipalities, general public, etc. It aims to propose the operational procedures to realize the functionalities demanded by the users, and to make recommendations

for developing disaster management support systems. The research involved two main elements. The first one conducting interviews with a wide variety of users to analyse their needs for radar rainfall and disaster information; and the second one developing a prototype system for flood/inundation forecasting and flood disaster evacuation support systems which disseminate information to mobile phones. The questionnaire surveys and interviews were conducted targeting the users of flood information in order to determine the types of information needed during flood events. Potential users of flood information include such entities as organizations related to disaster-prevention, administrators of rivers, sewerage or roads, managers of underground facilities, river users, recreational users and the nearby residents. The survey revealed the needs of and the information required by river, sewerage and disaster prevention managers, and also the key issues regarding flood information that are considered important to resolve. In addition, the prototype system which provides flood/inundation forecasting and flood disaster evacuation support information using X-band MP radar was designed and developed. The system provides information such as current and estimated rainfall, water level and inundation depth at any given locations and ranges, and can be accessed through mobile phones. Pilot testing of the system is being conducted this year in order to verify the effectiveness of the system and to refine its specifications.Key words X-Band MP (multi- parameter) radar; disaster evacuation support systems


Evaluation of flood discharge hydrographs and bed variations in a channel network on the Ota River delta, Japan

T. GOTOH1, S. FUKUOKA1 & R. TANAKA2 1 Research and Development Initiative, Chuo University, 1-13-27 Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 112-8551, Japangoto510 @ tamacc.chuo-u.ac.jp 2 Chugoku Regional Development Bureau, MLIT, 3-20 Hattyoubori, Naka-ku, Hiroshima-City, 730-0013, Japan

Abstract A channel network consisting of the Ota River floodway and five branched rivers is formed on the Ota River delta. To estimate bed variation and flood discharge distributions in the channel network of the Ota River delta is important for proper river management. The objective of this study is to develop the calculation method of flood flows and bed variations by using time series of water surface profiles measured in the channel network of the Ota River delta. We developed a quasi-3D numerical model for the flood flow and bed variation analyses using time series of observed water surface profiles. The unsteady quasi-3D analysis of flood flows and 2D analysis of bed variations using time series of observed water surface profiles are found to provide good explanations for the flood discharge distributions and bed variations of the channel network on the Ota River delta. Key words channel network; Ota River delta, Japan; time series of observed water surface profiles; flood discharge distributions; bed variation


Ensemble short-term rainfall–runoff prediction and its application in urban flood risk mapping

RATIH INDRI HAPSARI1, SATORU OISHI2, KENGO SUNADA3, TETSUYA SANO3 & DIAN SISINGGIH4

1 Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi, 4-3-11 Takeda, Kofu 400-8510, [email protected] Research Centre for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, 1-1 Rokko-dai, Nada-ku, Kobe 657-8501, Japan

3 International Research Centre for River Basin Environment, University of Yamanashi, 4-3-11 Takeda, Kofu 400-8510, Japan4 Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Brawijaya, Jl. MT. Haryono 167, Malang 65145, Indonesia

Abstract This paper describes the ensemble approach to account for the uncertainty in both rainfall and hydrological short-term prediction. The range of probabilistic products generated by ensemble prediction and their potential for obtaining flood risk estimates is demonstrated. An ensemble rainfall prediction is developed by perturbing the initial condition of the radar echo extrapolation model. The ensemble members are subsequently considered as uncertain input of the distributed hydrological model. Uncertainty in rainfall–runoff model parameters is assessed by the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The methodology is demonstrated through case studies in the Kofu urban river basin, Japan. The results reveal that plausible results can be achieved, thus indicating that this approach could serve as a reliable method for estimating the uncertainty range in short-term prediction of runoff dynamics. When utilized along with the flood damage model, we highlight the value of ensemble prediction for deriving flood risk information through risk mapping. Key words ensemble prediction; flash flood; GLUE; parameter uncertainty; probabilistic prediction; risk


Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in the Jajroud basin of Iran using a synoptic model

MAHMOUD AHMADI1, E. FATTAHI2 & A. NOORMOHMMADI3 1 Physical Geography Department, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, [email protected] Meteorological Research Center, Tehran, Iran 3 MS student of Climatology, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the maximum amount of precipitation that may occur in a basin. The Jajroud Basin north of Tehran is important for the agricultural activities of the area and the urban planning of Tehran city. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to determine the PMP in this basin using a synoptic model. In this model, most of the attention is paid to the moisture and thermal characteristics of rainstorms in the region. In order to achieve the objective of the study, eight intensive and widespread storms that lasted one to four days were selected. The results showed that the intensive rainstorms of the basin are intensified by the merging of Mediterranean cyclones with Sudan lows. Through the largest rainstorms, the PMP of the basin was computed as 102 mm. The results from the study are the main input for the calculation of the probable maximum flooding (PMF) of the basin.Key words Jajroud basin, Iran; Mediterranean cyclones; PMP; rainstorm; synoptic model


Study on spatial-temporal distribution of rainstorm in China from 1961 to 2010

FEI MAO1, DAPENG HUANG1, RENHE ZHANG1, ZHIGUO HUO1, E. YOUHAO1 & HUIFEI JIANG2 1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, [email protected] China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China

Abstract Using daily precipitation data of 601 stations from 1961 to 2010 in China, the spatial and temporal distribution of rainstorm (daily precipitation 50 mm), heavy rainstorm (daily precipitation 100 mm) and extremely heavy rainstorm (daily precipitation 200 mm) were analysed based on mathematical statistics. The main results show that the days of rainstorm, heavy rainstorm and extremely heavy rainstorm all decreased gradually from southeast to northwest China, and the maximum records of them reached 737 days, 259 days, 50 days, respectively, during the last 50 years. There were almost no rainstorms in the western regions of China. The annual days of rainstorm, heavy rainstorm and extremely heavy rainstorm increased mainly in the Lower Yangtze-Huaihe areas, the south of the Lower Yangtze River, Guangdong Province, Guangxi Zhuang Nationality Autonomous Region, Hainan Island, etc. In these areas, the risk of meteorological and geological disasters such as flood inundation, mud-rock flow, landslide, etc. were increased. The annual curves of the rainstorm days with unimodal distribution were found in most regions of China, and with double-peaks in the Tibetan Plateau and Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. The maximum rainstorms occur in July in most regions of China, in June in Jiangnan (Shanghai City, Zhejiang Province, Fujian Province, Jiangxi Province and Hunan Province) and South China (Guangdong Province and Guangxi), in August in the Tibetan Plateau and Xisha Islands, and in October in Hainan Island. Some research results in this paper provide important information of climate background for analysing and evaluating disasters of flood inundation, mud-rock flow, landslides, etc.Key words China; rainstorm; spatial and temporal distribution


Sequential data assimilation for streamflow forecasting using a distributed hydrologic model: particle filtering and ensemble Kalman filtering

SEONG JIN NOH1, 2, YASUTO TACHIKAWA3, MICHIHARU SHIIBA3 & SUNMIN KIM3

1 Dept. of Urban and Env. Eng., Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540, Japanseongjin.noh @ gmail.com 2 Water Resources & Environment Research Department, Korea Institute of Construction Technology, 2311 Daewha-Dong, Ilsan-Gu, Goyang-Si, Gyeonggi-Do 411-712, Korea3 Dept. of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan

Abstract Accurate streamflow predictions are crucial for mitigating flood damage and addressing operational flood scenarios. In recent years, sequential data assimilation methods have drawn attention due to their potential to handle explicitly the various sources of uncertainty in hydrologic models. In this study, we implement two ensemble-based sequential data assimilation methods for streamflow forecasting via the particle filters and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Among variations of filters, the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) and the lagged regularized particle filter (LRPF) are implemented for a distributed hydrologic model. Two methods are applied for short-term flood forecasting in a small-sized catchment located in Japan (<1000 km2). Soil moisture contents are perturbed by process noises and model ensembles are updated by streamflow observation at the outlet. In the case of the LRPF, state updating is performed through a lag-time window to take into account the different response times of hydrologic processes. For different flood events and various forecast lead times, LRPF forecasts outperform EnSRF forecasts and deterministic cases. The EnSRF shows limited performance in both forecasting accuracy and probabilistic intervals, which require introduction of a lag-time window in the filtering processes.Key words sequential data assimilation; flood forecasting; particle filter; ensemble Kalman filter; distributed hydrologic model


Effect of density of gauges on accuracy of merged GSMAP: case study of typhoon Morakot

G. OZAWA1, H. INOMATA2 & K. FUKAMI3

1 CTI Engineering Co., Ltd. CTI Fukuoka building, 2-4-12 Daimyo, Chuo-ku, Fukuoka-city 814-0041, Japang-ozawa @ ctie.co.jp 2 National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 1 Asahi, Tsukuba city, Ibaraki prefecture 305-0804, Japan3 International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the auspices of UNESCO (UNESCO-ICHARM), Public Works Research Institute (PWRI), 1–6 Minamihara, Tsukuba city, Ibaraki prefecture 305-8516, Japan

Abstract Previous research has found that satellite-based rainfall data such as GSMaP_NRT in general tend to underestimate raingauge data, especially for heavy rainfall, which poses a problem in their use for applications. Thus, a correction method for satellite-based rainfall data to improve the accuracy is necessary for applications. In some ungauged basins, a few real time raingauges have been recently installed. In these basins a merging method for satellite-based rainfall and raingauge data can be applied, e.g. Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation (IDW), co-kriging. These merging methods are expected to improve the accuracy of satellite-based rainfall with raingauges. This paper revealed the relation between the density of raingauges and the accuracy of merged GSMaP by IDW. The result implies that a certain level of the density (one station/5000 km2) of raingauges is necessary for applications using merged GSMaP.Key words GSMaP; merging, IDW; ungauged basin; Morakot


Flood warnings for infrastructure: tailored flood warning services

FRAZER RHODESEnvironment Agency, Flood Digital Programme Manager, Environment Agency, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol BS1 5AH, [email protected]

Abstract The floods during the summer of 2007 in England and Wales were the most expensive in terms of flood damage anywhere in the world during that year. The Costs of the Summer 2007 Floods in England Report (Environment Agency, 2010) stated that approximately 50 000 properties were flooded, water supplies to 350 000 homes were disrupted and insurance industry costs totalled £3.2 billion, including £660 million in damage to critical national infrastructure and essential services. During 2009/10, the Environment Agency piloted an internet-based service, providing flood warnings for infrastructure assets operated by Western Power Distribution, an electricity distribution company covering south Wales and southwest England. The Environment Agency subsequently enabled all organisations designated Category 1 or 2 Emergency Responders (The Civil Contingencies Act 2004) to access a targeted flood warning service in October 2011. The development of this pilot demonstrated that a web-based application is one method of delivering a tailored warning service and that “live flood warning data” held by the Environment Agency could be used to develop a range of specialised products and services. Value Added Resellers (VARs) are actively now using Environment Agency data to create specialised warning services for utilities and transport operators, specialist insurance products and smart phone applications. These developments ensure that more people are receiving flood warnings in the way they want to access this information. The adoption of these services will improve flood response, reducing the impact of flooding on communities due to disruption to essential services.

Key words flood warning; infrastructure; value added resellers; live data feeds


Roles of natural levees in the Ara River alluvial fan on flood management

SHIGERU SAITO1 & S. FUKUOKA2

1 Department of Civil Engineering, Graduated Student of Science and Engineering, Chuo University, [email protected] Research and Development Initiative, Chuo University, Japan

Abstract The Ara River alluvial fan has a lot of natural levees. It is considered that the natural levees effect flood inundation flow, but there are few studies about the roles of natural levees from the point of view of flood control and management. In this study, by plotting positions of the remains of communities (from BC20 000 to AD1192) on the topographical classification map, it is clarified that many remains of communities in the Ara River alluvial fan were developed on the natural levees. Roads and railways in the Ara River alluvial fan were constructed in order to connect the natural levees in the Meiji-period. From the Ara River hazard map, flood depths on the natural levees are shallow compared with surrounding areas. The embankments of roads and railways on the natural levees are useful measures for preventing spread of inundation flow.Key words alluvial fan; natural levee; development of communities’ flood management


Transboundary cooperation in flood forecasting and warning services within the international Morava River basin

EVA SOUKALOVÁ Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Kroftova 43, 616 67 Brno, Czech [email protected]

Abstract The Morava River basin lies on the territories of three countries: the Czech Republic (CZ), Austria (AT) and Slovak Republic (SK). The River Morava is a left-hand tributary of the Danube River, entering it at the border cross-section between Austria and the Slovak Republic. The forecasting system HYDROG has been set up for the whole Morava River basin, containing 25 forecasting profiles. There is a close cooperation with Austria in place. Within the framework of the European Territorial Co-operation 2007–2013 (AT, CZ), the project “Flood forecasting in the confluence area of the Rivers Morava and Dyje” was adopted. As a result of this project, the extended upgrade of the forecasting model HYDROG for the Morava River basin was prepared and since February 2010 in the test operation the forecasts for the profile Hohenau (AT), Moravský Sv. Ján (SK) on the River Morava have been disseminated daily. Key words discharge prediction; confluence area; feasibility study; forecasting model


A methodology for rapid inundation mapping for a megacity with sparse data: case of Mumbai, India

K. GUPTA & V. NIKAM Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400076, [email protected]

Abstract Mumbai, India has chronic problems related to urban flooding and it experiences waterlogging every year. To combat this, a Disaster Risk Management Master Plan integrating various disasters like floods, earthquakes and cyclones is presently being developed for the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai. As part of this plan, a flood risk assessment (FRA) of the city has been carried out using best available data for two scenarios – continuous rainfall at 50 mm/h for one hour and 100 mm/h for one hour corresponding to a return period of 2 in 1 year and 1 in 1 year, respectively. The areas expected to be submerged by these rainfall intensities have been delineated. Subsequently the number of people likely to be affected by flooding in the ward has been estimated. This estimate will help in formulating mitigation measures like shelters, evacuation paths and planning for transport route diversions.Key words megacity; urban flooding; flood inundation; flood risk; shuttle radar topography mission


The next generation tsunami hazard map

MAKOTO HADA1, HIROKAZU NAKAMURA1 & ISAMU OKAKI2

1 UC-1 Development Group 1, FORUM8 Co., Ltd., 2-1-1, Nakameguro GT Tower 15F Kamimeguro Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-0051, [email protected] VR Support Group, FORUM8 Co., Ltd.

Abstract The situation surrounding the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011 shed light on many problems that should be improved to protect against future tsunamis. Based on the lessons that we learned from this major tsunami, we proposed a new kind of hazard map called the next generation tsunami hazard map. This new map visualizes the results of tsunami analysis based on various factors and the results of an evacuation analysis within 3D virtual reality space. By applying this model to the port that suffered from the tsunami, we visualized the whole scene in 3D. This included the visualization of the land being inundated by the tsunami and the analysis of what actually happened during this time, including the behaviour of the people evacuating the disaster. Through the use of this new hazard map it is possible to review various types of tsunami risks and develop self-help strategies.Key words tsunami analysis; shallow water equation; evacuation analysis; multi-agent; hazard map; virtual reality; 3D; risk awareness; risk communication; 3D simulation


Assessment of rainstorm climate risk and rainstorm-induced agricultural disaster risk in east-central China

ZHIGUO HUO1, QUANPEI WEN1,2, ZHENFENG MA3, JINGJING XIAO4 & LEI ZHANG1

1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 46 Zhong-Guan-Cun South Avenue, 100081 Beijing, Chinahuozhigg @ cams.cma.gov.cn 2 Chengdu University of Information Technology, 610225 Chengdu, China3 Climate Center of Sichuan Province, 610072 Chengdu, China

4 Zhejiang Climate Center, 310017, Hangzhou, China

Abstract By using the 1961–2008 observation data of rainstorms from 292 meteorological stations in east-central China and the historical data on agricultural disasters, a rainstorm climatic risk index and an agricultural relative disaster index, as well as their risk assessment models, were constructed by principal component analysis, soft histogram estimation, grey correlation analysis, and normal information diffusion. Then the risk of rainstorm climate and its induced agriculture disasters in east-central China were assessed. In east-central China the rainstorm climatic risk had a decreasing trend from south to north, with high risk in Hainan and coastal areas of Guangdong and Guangxi, medium risk in north-central Guangdong and Guangxi, Anhui and Hubei within Jianghuai Region, and Jiangxi, and Hunan within Xianggan Region, and low risk area in northeast China, except its coastal areas of Liaoning and in Shanxi and Hebei of North China. High-value areas of agricultural relative disaster risk are located in Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, and Guangdong, and low-value areas are located in Hebei, Henan, and Liaoning. The correlation coefficient between the rainstorm climatic index and the agricultural relative disaster index is more than 0.6 in each province/autonomous region except Guangdong. It was shown that the rainstorm climatic risk index and the agricultural relative disaster index can be used to assess the actual rainstorm strength and the possible rainstorm-induced agriculture disaster loss, respectively.Key words inducing factor of rainstorm disaster; rainstorm climate index; agricultural relative disaster index; risk assessment


Review on Japanese assistance of community-based management for flood disaster

MIKIO ISHIWATARI1, JUNKO MIMAKI1 & TOMOKO SHAW2 1 Japan International Cooperation Agency, 5-25 Nibancyo, Chiyodaku, Tokyo 102-8012, Japan [email protected] OYO International Cooperation, 2-6 KudanKita 4-chome, Chiyodaku, Tokyo 102-0073, Japan

Abstract It is widely recognized that a community plays a crucial role in managing disaster risks. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is shifting its approach from engineering-oriented approaches to comprehensive ones which include community-based disaster management (CBDM). However, the development assistant methods of CBDM have not been established. This study aims to propose the methods through reviewing JICA projects from a capacity development perspective. The community is described as the “main actor”, while other organizations, such as governmental agencies and non-governmental organizations, are described as “supporting actors” to the communities. Various lessons were learned from the JICA projects: organizations’ capacities should be assessed at a project designing stage; and focusing on the communities is required for activities. The study further recommends methods of project design to secure project sustainability, to take interactive risk communication between governments and communities, and to utilize Japanese technology and experience. Key words community-based disaster management; official development assistance; capacity development; JICA; risk communication; sustainability


Knowledge transfer in international cooperation projects: experiences from a Dutch–Romanian project

J. VINKE-DE KRUIJF1,2, S. J. M. H. HULSCHER1 & J. T. A. BRESSERS2

1 Department of Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, PO Box 217, 7500 AE, the Netherlands [email protected] CSTM – Twente Centre for Studies in Technology and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Management and Governance, University of Twente, the Netherlands

Abstract The transfer of knowledge to reduce flood risk problems can be beneficial, but is often difficult. This paper shows how knowledge and interaction contribute to the transfer of knowledge in international cooperation projects. It presents a conceptual model of knowledge transfer and applies this to a case study project in which knowledge about the flood information and warning system FLIWAS was transferred from the Netherlands to Romania. The knowledge transfer was only partly effective: Romanian experts intend to further implement FLIWAS, but have not yet started using the project results. The case study confirms that transfer processes involve experts with diverging backgrounds who tend to experience difficulties in understanding each other. Intense forms of interaction enhance the transfer of knowledge, but do not necessarily help to overcome these differences. Previous collaboration experiences and interpersonal aspects are also likely to have a positive impact on the transfer of knowledge. Key words knowledge transfer; international cooperation; case study; flood risk management; Romania


Integrated flood evacuation simulator considering time–space distributions of flood risk

KAZUMI MATSUO1, LUMEN NATAINIA2 & FUMIHIKO YAMADA2

1 Incorporated Administrative Agency Japan Water Agency, 42-21 Higashi-machi, Kurume, Fukuoka 830-0032, [email protected] 2 Graduate School of Science & Technology, Kumamoto University, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Kumamoto 860-8555, Japan

Abstract An integrated flood evacuation simulator that takes into account the time–space distributions of both the flood risk and safe evacuation routes at community levels was developed. Two-dimensional models for flood inundation flow were employed using an unstructured grid model to consider the detailed land use at the community level. Using the calculations of the inundation water depth and flow velocity, the time–space distributions of flood risk during flood evacuation on foot were examined, taking into account phase lags between the inundation water depth and flow velocity. Flood evacuation simulations using a multi-agent model were also performed to examine the evacuation timing and proper location planning of evacuation refuges. The proposed evacuation simulator can be considered a useful tool for disaster prevention planning at community levels. The simulator can also be used for disaster education and evacuation planning and training at both individual and community levels.Key words multi-agent system model; community-based flood risk management; flood evacuation; flood hazard map


Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

B. E. PENGEL1, V. V. KRZHIZHANOVSKAYA2,3, N. B. MELNIKOVA2,3, G. S. SHIRSHOV2, A. R. KOELEWIJN4, A. L. PYAYT2,5, I. I. MOKHOV5 1 STOWA Foundation for Applied Water Research, Stationsweg 89, Amersfoort, the Netherlands [email protected] University of Amsterdam, UvA Computational Science, Science Park 107, 1098 SJ Amsterdam, the Netherlands3 National Research University ITMO, St. Petersburg, Russia

4 Deltares, Rotterdamseweg 185, Delft, the Netherlands5 Siemens, Volynskiy Lane 3a, 191186 St. Petersburg, Russia

Abstract The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensor networks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the probability of dike failure, the ensuing scenarios of dike breaching, predicted flood spreading and escape routes for people from the affected areas. Results are presented on interactive decision support systems that assist flood defence managers and public authorities during flood events. It can also be applied for policy development and for everyday dike condition assessment. The separate Virtual Dike module can be used for advanced research into failure mechanisms and dike stability. By consulting international stakeholders the designers ensured that the EWS is well aligned with user requirements.Key words flood; early warning system; ICT; climate change; sensor networks


People-centred approach in integrated flood risk management in Lower Mekong Basin

ASLAM PERWAIZAsian Disaster Preparedness Center, SM Tower, Paya Thai, Bangkok 10400, Thailand [email protected]

Abstract The countries in the Lower Mekong River Basin (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam) are home to approximately 60 million people. Floods along the Mekong every year have the potential to directly endanger life; cause millions of dollars worth of damage to property; and put people at increased risk of poverty, malnutrition and disease. At the same time, they are an important and essential natural process, bringing water, nutrients and other benefits to flood plains, wetlands and ecosystems. The people-centred approach taken under the Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP) of Mekong River Commission (MRC) shows how the increased capacity of the key officials of the Provincial, District and Commune Committee for Disaster Management (DM) in the lower Mekong Basin has helped the country overcome the losses due to annual Mekong flooding. Key words flood preparedness; Lower Mekong Basin; ADPC; MRCS; emergency management

Documents

hydrologie.orghydrologie.org/redbooks/a357/357 description, preface… · Web viewhydrologie.org