POPULATION GEOGRAPHY

Distribution of World Population Population Statistics Population Pyramids Demographic Transition Theory Population Control Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-

Malthusians

REPLACEMENT LEVEL

# of births needed to keep a population at a stable level w/o immigration of a nation. Yourself and Partner. (2.1)

No European countries are at the replacement level.

2.1 vs. 3.32.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at

which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher (2.8?).

High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

POPULATION EQUATION

Pt+1 = Pt + (B - D) + (I - E) Where Pt and Pt+1 are the sizes of

population in an area at two different points in time, t and t +1 are those points, B is the birth rate, D is the death rate, I is the immigration, and E is the emigration.

AGING POPULATIONS

What is the concern with an aging population?

Wiki Link

Arithmetic Density – the total number of people div. by total land area.

Examples:

U.S. = 76/mi2; Chicago = 12,557/mi2;

NYC=27,532/mi2; Australia = 7.3/mi2

Dhaka Bangladesh = 59,644.8/sq mi (highest in world)

Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.

PHYSIOLOGIC DENSITY EXAMPLES

Egypt: 98% of pop live on 3% of land. Switzerland-________ density is 10x

greater than its _________density. Europe Vs. Asia and Physiological

Density. China-10x greater than India India-Physiological density lowest in S.

Asia

Landmass with the world’s three largest population concentrations can be found? Which is the next by ¼ of the size?

Infant Mortality

Rates of Natural Increase

POPULATION GROWTH OF A COUNTRY

Population Doubling Time Due to births and immigration World doubling time is decreasing

(good or bad)? Currently adding _____ million per

year

DOUBLING TIMESThe doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today.

World = 50U.S. = 34Honduras = 22Belize = 19Denmark = 700Russia = never?

Demographic Transition Model

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

Stage one Crude birth/death rate high Fragile population

Stage two Lower death rates Infant mortality rate Natural increase high

Stage three Indicative of richer developed countries Higher standards of living/education

Problems with the Demographic Transition

Model

• based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization

• many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth

• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3

POPULATION SHIFT

Thomas MalthusPopulation can increase, but somewhere along the line, natural restraints come into play *Thomas Malthus - 1798 - Principles of Population - first person to write on population         Population has a tendency to increase geometrically(exponential), agriculture can grow only in arithmetic         progression *Population will reach a point at which it exceeds available food supply -Will be held in check by "war, vice, and misery"

THOMAS MALTHUS

Population increased exponentially (geometrically), food increases _______

But Malthus was wrong due to… Expanded ag. Acreage Improvement in seeds (GMOs) Fertilizers

REDUCING THE POP GROWTH RATE

India: Forced sterilization China: Fines War can reduce rates as well. Famine Natural Disaster

BIRTH CONTROL PROGRAMS

One family/one child policies Female infanticide Social compensation fees

Sterilization Loss of status Termination healthcare/food coupons Free birth control Increased literacy

WORLD DEATH RATES

Infectious diseases HIV/AIDS SARS

Degenerative diseases Epidemiology

WORLD AND COUNTRY POPULATION TOTALS

Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface!

Total: 6 billion on planet as of Oct. 12, 1999Current Population Counter

Five most populous regions and countriesREGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION

East Asia 1.5 billion China 1.254 billion South Asia 1.2 billion India 986 million Europe 750 million U.S. 274 million SE Asia 500 million Indonesia 206 million East N. Am.120 million Brazil 168 million

ADULTS AND CHILDREN LIVING WITH AIDS, 2004

Pyramids display the percentages of each age group in the total population (normally five-year groups) by a horizontal bar whose length represents its share.

What does this mean?

OVERPOPULATION When consumption of

natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.

(1743 – 1794)

• predicted that innovation, resulting increased wealth, and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family

• believed that society was perfectable

JEAN ANTOINE CONDORCET

THOMAS MALTHUS ON POPULATION

Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person.

Assumptions Populations grow

exponentially. Food supply grows

arithmetically. Food shortages and

chaos inevitable.

An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

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Food Population2 24 48 1616 256

POPULATION J-CURVE

POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT

I = P x A x TImpact = Population x Affluence x TechnologyPopulation-influenced environmental problems:• Global Warming

• Habitat Loss / Endangered Species

• Resource Depletion

• Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.

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