Incorporating the Power Generation Capacities of New and

Renewable Energy into Long-Term Electricity Supply Planning

2005 8 31

.

2005 8

:

:

: ,

: ,

,

,

,

,

- i -

1. 1

. 1

. 1

. 2

2. 5

. 5

(1) 5

(2) 6

(3) 6

(4) 7

(5) OECD 8

(6) 8

. 11

(1) 11

(2) 13

(3) 18

3. 20

. 22

. LDC 24

(1) 8760 Load Profile 26

. WASP 27

(1) 27

(2) 28

(3) WASP 29

(4) 32

. 33

4. IGCC, LFG, , , 35

. IGCC, LFG, , 36

. 37

- ii -

(1) 37

(2) 41

5. 44

. 44

. 45

. 51

. 51

6. 60

. 60

. 62

(1) (, declination) 63

(2) 63

(3) 64

(4) 64

(5) PV 66

. 67

. 70

7. 78

. 78

. 81

. 82

. 88

8. 96

. (L-R) 97.5% 100

. (L-R) 2.5% 106

9. 112

10. 116

- iii -

1. WASP LOADSY 123

. (1-1) WASP LOADSY 123

. (1-2) WASP LOADSY 131

. (1-3) WASP LOADSY 137

. (1-4) WASP LOADSY 143

. (1-5) WASP LOADSY 149

2. WASP LOADSY 155

. (2-3) WASP LOADSY 155

. (2-4) WASP LOADSY 161

. (2-5) WASP LOADSY 167

3. 173

4. 178

--------- ---------

5. () 186

. (Reliability) 186

. (Power System Reliability) 191

1) 191

2) 192

3) 192

4) 196

. (Capacity credit) 198

1) 198

2) (Chronological approach) 200

3) 203

4) 208

5) Chronological VS. Probabilistic method 217

- iv -

6) 218

6. () 224

. 224

. 224

1) 224

2) 224

3) 1 225

4) 2 225

. 225

1) 225

2) WASP 226

3) 226

4) 226

5) 227

. 228

1) 228

2) CO2 228

3) 229

7. () 266

. 266

. 267

1) 267

2) 269

. 271

1) 272

2) 273

3) 273

4) 273

5) 274

. 274

. 280

8. , () 282

. 282

. 282

- v -

. 283

. 283

1) 283

2) : 284

3) 284

. 285

1) 285

2) 287

9. DME () 314

. 314

. 314

. 318

. 324

- vi -

6

6

7

8

OECD 8

9

1998 (euros/kWh) 10

10

2002 11

12

(2003) 12

18

19

19

2 ( ) 33

2 34

(2003 9 ) 35

36

- 37

38

39

40

21kW 46

dpt 52

(2001~2004) 61

63

PV 66

(2003 , : MW) 80

- 84

(2003) 85

(2005) 85

(2008 ) 86

96

- vii -

96

97

(: MW) 98

(: %) 98

(: %) 99

99

2000 173

2001 174

2002 175

2003 176

2004 177

180

, FITs () 181

, FITs ( ) 181

, FITs () 182

, FITs ( ) 182

187

Series Parallel 220

220

226

227

227

227

WASP 228

228

CO2 229

267

268

269

283

EL. -1.0m, 12, 6 288

DME 320

DME 322

- viii -

[ 2-1] 1 10

[ 2-2] 11

[ 3-1] Load Duration Curve 25

[ 3-2] 28

[ 3-3] WASP 29

[ 3-4] 30

[ 3-5] 31

[ 3-6] 3 32

[ 4-1] () 38

[ 4-2] 41

[ 5-1] 19kW 47

[ 5-2] 49

[ 5-3] 49

[ 5-4] 50

[ 5-5] 50

[ 5-6] 2006 53

[ 5-7] 2007 53

[ 5-8] 2008 54

[ 5-9] 2009 54

[ 5-10] 2010 55

[ 5-11] 2011 55

[ 5-12] 2012 56

[ 5-13] 2013 56

[ 5-14] 2014 57

[ 5-15] 2015 57

[ 5-16] 2016 58

[ 5-17] 2017 58

[ 5-18] , 59

[ 6-1] 60

[ 6-2] 61

[ 6-3] 62

[ 6-4] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24) 68

[ 6-5] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24) 69

- ix -

[ 6-6] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24) 69

[ 6-7] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24) 69

[ 6-8] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24) 70

[ 6-9] 2006 72

[ 6-10] 2007 72

[ 6-11] 2008 73

[ 6-12] 2009 73

[ 6-13] 2010 74

[ 6-14] 2011 74

[ 6-15] 2012 75

[ 6-16] 2013 75

[ 6-17] 2014 76

[ 6-18] 2015 76

[ 6-19] 2016 77

[ 6-20] 2017 77

[ 7-1] 79

[ 7-2] 87

[ 7-3] 8 fitting 87

[ 7-4] 2006 90

[ 7-5] 2007 90

[ 7-6] 2008 91

[ 7-7] 2009 91

[ 7-8] 2010 92

[ 7-9] 2011 92

[ 7-10] 2012 93

[ 7-11] 2013 93

[ 7-12] 2014 94

[ 7-13] 2015 94

[ 7-14] 2016 95

[ 7-15] 2017 95

[ 8-1] 2006 (L-R) 97.5% 100

[ 8-2] 2007 (L-R) 97.5% 100

[ 8-3] 2008 (L-R) 97.5% 101

[ 8-4] 2009 (L-R) 97.5% 101

[ 8-5] 2010 (L-R) 97.5% 102

[ 8-6] 2011 (L-R) 97.5% 102

[ 8-7] 2012 (L-R) 97.5% 103

- x -

[ 8-8] 2013 (L-R) 97.5% 103

[ 8-9] 2014 (L-R) 97.5% 104

[ 8-10] 2015 (L-R) 97.5% 104

[ 8-11] 2016 (L-R) 97.5% 105

[ 8-12] 2017 (L-R) 97.5% 105

[ 8-13] 2006 (L-R) 2.5% 106

[ 8-14] 2007 (L-R) 2.5% 106

[ 8-15] 2008 (L-R) 2.5% 107

[ 8-16] 2009 (L-R) 2.5% 107

[ 8-17] 2010 (L-R) 2.5% 108

[ 8-18] 2011 (L-R) 2.5% 108

[ 8-19] 2012 (L-R) 2.5% 109

[ 8-20] 2013 (L-R) 2.5% 109

[ 8-21] 2014 (L-R) 2.5% 110

[ 8-22] 2015 (L-R) 2.5% 110

[ 8-23] 2016 (L-R) 2.5% 111

[ 8-24] 2017 (L-R) 2.5% 111

[ ]

[ 1-1] 1 LDC (2004.1 - 2017.1) 127

[ 1-2] 2 LDC (2004.2 - 2017.2) 128

[ 1-3] 3 LDC (2004.3 - 2017.3) 129

[ 1-4] 4 LDC (2004.4 - 2017.4) 130

[ 1-5] 1 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 133

[ 1-6] 2 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-2) 134

[ 1-7] 3 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-2) 135

[ 1-8] 4 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-2) 136

[ 1-9] 1 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-3) 139

[ 1-10] 2 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-3) 140

[ 1-11] 3 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-3) 141

[ 1-12] 4 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-3) 142

[ 1-13] 1 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-4) 145

[ 1-14] 2 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 146

[ 1-15] 3 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-4) 147

[ 1-16] 4 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) (1-4) 148

- xi -

[ 1-17] 1 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 151

[ 1-18] 2 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 152

[ 1-19] 3 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 153

[ 1-20] 4 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 154

[ 2-1] 1 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 157

[ 2-2] 2 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 158

[ 2-3] 3 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 159

[ 2-4] 4 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 160

[ 2-5] 1 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 163

[ 2-6] 2 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 164

[ 2-7] 3 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 165

[ 2-8] 4 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 166

[ 2-9] 1 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 169

[ 2-10] 2 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 170

[ 2-11] 3 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 171

[ 2-12] 4 LDC (2006.1 - 2017.1) 172

[ 3-1] 2000 173

[ 3-2] 2001 174

[ 3-3] 2002 175

[ 3-4] 2003 176

[ 3-5] 2004 177

[ 4-1] 188

[ 5-2] (A ) 195

[ 5-3] (B ) 195

[ 5-4] 197

[ 5-5] A. (Chronological method) 202

[ 5-6] B (Chronological method) 203

[ 5-7] (1980) 206

[ 5-8] (1982) 206

[ 5-9] (1984) 207

[ 5-10] (1990) 207

[ 5-11] (Chronological) 209

[ 5-12] 209

[ 5-13] 210

[ 5-14] 212

[ 5-15] 215

[ 5-16] (A) 216

- xii -

[ 5-17] (A) 217

[ 5-18] 218

[ 5-19] Series Parallel 221

[ 7-1] capacity credit 277

[ 8-1] ( ) 286

[ 8-2] , 287

[ 9-1] 316

[ 9-2] IGCC 316

[ 9-3] 317

[ 9-4] 318

[ 9-5] 318

[ 9-6] DME 319

[ 9-7] IGCC DME Co-production 319

[ 9-8] IGCC+DME co-production ( ) 321

[ 9-9] IGCC+DME co-production ( ) 322

1.

- 1 -

1.

.

,

,

. ,

, .

, 2 6 24 48

40%

.

, ,

( )

() . ,

.

.

,

,

.

.

: ,

.

- 2 -

.

: ,

.

.

:

. CO2

.

: , ,

.

.

:

.

.

.

, 1997

11 38 20082012

1990 5.2%

. 2001

(Marrakech Accords)

(IET, International Emissions Trading),

(JI,

Joint Implementation),

CER(Certified Emission Reduction)

CDM(Clean Development Mechanism)

.

1.

- 3 -

,

.

(1) , (2) , (3)

, (4) ,

.

, (penetration)

,

.

(intermittency)

dispach ,

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

. R&D ,

.

.

.

- 4 -

capacity value .

.

,

,

.

, .

.1)

.

,

IGCC(Integrated

Gasification Combined Cycle, ), LFG(Landfill Gas), (

20% ), , 2)

.

, 80%

.

1 687 .

,

, ,

.

,

1) WASP ,

.

.

2)

, .

2.

- 5 -

,

. 2004-2005

()

. .

.

must-run (Load Duration Curve) WASP

.

, WASP

.

2. .

(1)

, ,

,

( ) .

2001 7

, 2002 .

- 6 -

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

1927.24 2088.12 2140.47 2163.41 2181.54 2247.79 2299.67 1.8

(B) 273.56 305.97 313.95 315.76 327.13 334.46 344.24

(C) 100.91 108.16 113.63 112.25 111.13 113.33 110.39 0.9

(RE) 29.43 33.68 37.03 37.88 34.74 32.38 28.53

RE/B100 10.8% 11.0% 11.8% 12.0% 10.6% 9.7% 8.3%

RE/C100 29.2% 31.1% 32.6% 33.7% 31.3% 28.6% 25.8%

: , ,

: IEA, 2002

( : Mtoe)

(2)

2001 11 RPS ()

,

. ,

RPS

RPS .

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

438.85 497.81 511.12 517.86 511.10 515.55 524.71 1.8

(B) 73.16 84.33 86.02 88.33 89.10 90.89 93.03

(C) 15.89 16.95 17.37 18.67 17.41 16.81 16.98 0.7

(RE) 9.27 9.03 8.98 9.93 9.56 9.12 9.22

RE/B100 12.7% 10.7% 10.4% 11.2% 10.7% 10.0% 9.9%

RE/C100 58.3% 53.3% 51.7% 53.2% 54.9% 54.3% 54.3%

: , ,

: IEA, 2002

( : Mtoe)

(3)

,

, ,

, ,

2.

- 7 -

. 2001 4

.

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

87.57 94.38 100.94 103.04 104.01 107.69 110.17 2.3

(B) 13.27 14.88 15.25 15.72 16.82 17.45 17.89

(C) 5.07 5.53 6.15 6.44 6.23 6.32 6.72 2.9

(RE) 1.27 1.43 1.44 1.54 1.46 1.53 1.60

RE/B100 9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 9.8% 8.7% 8.8% 8.9%

RE/C100 25.0% 25.8% 23.5% 24.0% 23.4% 24.2% 23.8%

: , ,

: IEA, 2002

( : Mtoe)

(4)

1991 ,

, 97 1 ,

. , 2000

,

.

,

,

, ,

. ,

, (), 2000

, .

- 8 -

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

355.53 339.87 351.29 347.30 344.77 341.05 339.64 -0.5

(B) 47.09 45.80 47.34 47.12 47.50 47.32 48.76

(C) 5.83 6.51 6.74 7.70 8.31 7.97 8.95 4.4

(RE) 1.76 2.35 2.40 2.10 2.28 2.48 3.07

RE/B100 3.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 5.2% 6.3%

RE/C100 30.2% 36.0% 35.6% 27.3% 27.4% 31.2% 34.3%

: , ,

: IEA, 2002

( : Mtoe)

(5) OECD

OECD

.

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

4514.72 4884.46 5042.77 5088.97 5111.35 5213.43 5316.93 1.6

(B) 650.04 731.54 751.88 762.77 781.68 800.58 827.97

(C) 266.62 294.85 303.81 307.05 307.80 313.54 317.71 1.8

(RE) 111.07 124.98 128.49 131.66 128.61 128.39 129.47

RE/B100 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.3% 16.5% 16.0% 15.6%

RE/C100 41.7% 42.4% 42.3% 42.9% 41.8% 40.9% 40.8%

: , ,

: IEA, 2002

OECD

( : Mtoe)

(6)

( SBC) ( Fossil Fuel Levy)

, .

2.

- 9 -

1991 1 1 (EFL) ,

1998 5%

, , 90%,

500kW , , 80% .

2000 4, (EEG) ,

,

, , .

(2000 ) (: /kWh)

2000 2001 2002 2003

*

99.0 99.0 94.1 89.3

**

500kW 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.8

501kW~5MW 18.0 18.0 17.8 17.6

5MW~20MW 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.7

***

1~5 17.8 17.8 17.5 17.5

6~20 12.1 12.1 13.0 13.0

500kW 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0

500kW 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0

20MW 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5

20MW 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0: (2004), (2003)

: * 2002 1 1 5% .

** 2002 1 1 1% .

*** 2002 1 1 1.5% .

(Average bidding prices)

.

.

(, , )

.

- 10 -

Feed-in tariffs Average bidding prices

German Denmark Spain UK France

0.086 0.079 0.068 0.041 0.048: European Commission(1999)

1998 (euros/kWh)

(MW, 2000)

(MW, 2000)

Feed-in tariffs

Germany 6113 1668

Spain 2402 872

Denmark 2297 555

Total 10812 3095

Bidding systems

United Kingdom 409 53

Ireland 118 45

France 79 56

Total 606 154 : WindPower Monthly(2002)

[ 2-1] 1

: IEA, 2002

2.

- 11 -

[ 2-2]

: IEA, 2002

.

(1)

1000TOE, TOE , .

1993 1

.

0.097%, 0.89%

.3)

LFG (A) (B) (A/B)%

(A) 6,735 3,720 2,732,515 116,790 27,645 2,887,405

(B) 510 1,279 8,221 6,086 9,508 25,605 26,352,025 0.097164

(B/A)(%) 7.57 34.39 0.30 5.21 34.39 0.89

(h) 5,927 14,880 95,612 70,783 110,579 297,781 306,474,064 0.097164

: 1h= 859845.2= 0.08598452 TOE

: 2002 (, 2003. 4)

2002

( : TOE)

3) 2002 TOE .

.

- 12 -

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 021(A)

(TOE) 126,879 137,234 150,437 165,209 180,639 165,932 181,365 192,888 198,410 209,112

(%) 9.4 8.2 9.6 9.8 9.3 8.1 9.3 6.4 2.8 5.4

(C) 649.6 777.9 908.5 1,161.90 1,421.30 1,715.70 1,900.60 2,131.00 2,457.6 2,922.30

(%) 17.6 19.8 16.8 27.9 22.3 20.7 10.8 12.1 15.3 18.9

C/A100(%) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4

14,141 16,839 22,083 32,016 45,543 43,957 42,105 41,689 37,174 34,777

2,016 2,153 2,245 2,560 3,078 3,747 4,486 5,051 5,911 6,735

58,830 57,239 59,174 50,421 67,582 63,178 64,949 82,004 82,457 116,790

545,550 678,832 804,496 1,056,440 1,282,457 1,577,194 1,760,510 1,977,662 2,308,001 2,732,515

28,785 22,538 20,435 20,349 22,451 27,228 27,123 20,456 20,933 27,645

313 303 108 87 202 369 1,460 4,171 3,148 3,720

- - - - - - - - - 122

649,635 777,904 908,541 1,161,873 1,421,313 1,715,673 1,900,633 2,131,033 2,457,624 2,922,304

: 2002

( : TOE)

OECD 99

3.9% 2010 4.9%

10.4%, 7.0%, 4.3% 1.9%

.

.

.

2002, 2003 TOE

.

2002 2,732.5 811.8 116.8 34.8 3.7 1.7 0.1 3,701.4

(%) 73.8 21.9 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 100

2003 3,039.3 1,225.6 131.1 32.9 5.2 1.9 0.4 4,436.4

(%) 68.5 27.6 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 100

306.8 414.2 14.3 1.9 1.5 0.2 0.3 735.4: (2003)

* 2003 , , ( 02

)

(2003)

( : TOE)

2.

- 13 -

, , .

93.5%

.

,

.

2004 1.9% 2011 5%

, ,

. , ,

, 100 ,

10, , 3

. ,

(2002.5), .

(2)

()

1) (2004.12.31)4)

2) ( 2003-37, '03.4.9)

3) ('03.5.9)

() 5) , ,

, , .

4) 1

5) (2004),

- 14 -

1)

-

-

""

"",

- 5 ()

- 2002.01.05 3949 ()

- 2004-1 ()

- :

- : (100%), (70%),

(80%)

-

-

-

-

2)

-

2.

- 15 -

- 2004-110,

- 5%

3)

-

- 9(

) :

.

- 2003 ( 2002

239)

- , , A/S

,

- ,

- : 100%

15,000

- (3 5 , , 5 10 )

- , A/S ,

: 90% 500 (1

- 16 -

2 )

- : 100% 300/(2 3

)

4)

-

- 17(

)

- (2002-108, '02.5.29)

- (: /kWh)

-

3 716.40 10 SMP+CP 107.66 3 SMP+CP 73.69 20, 2050 SMP+CP 20MW 65.20

20MW50MW 61.80

(RDF) 20 SMP+CP

2.

- 17 -

5) 6)

-

-

- 27 :

,

.

- : 80%

- : 70%

-

-

- : ,

- :

)

: ,

: , ,

: , , ,

6) 2001 .

- 18 -

( )

()

100m2

300m2 292

-

-

-

()

- : 80%

( + )

: 20KW

: 30RT

: 100m2

657

() 5KW-10KW 550 - (/

)

- ; ,

50%

- ; ,

70%

300m2 1,094

100RT 1,715

20KW 388

- 3,747

- 4,696 - : ,

)

- : 1-5KW

- : 20-100KW 10

: 70%

(3)

(2003.5.27 ; 06885)

, (2002, 2004)

. ,

.

.

= ( - )

2.

- 19 -

(/h)

716.40

(SMP) +

(CP)107.66

(SMP) +

(CP)73.69

62.81

(SMP) +

(CP)20 65.20

2050 61.80

(RDF )

(SMP) + (CP)

: (2002)

: 1) 31 2, 19 2

50% .

, , ,

.

5

.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

950 1,130 1,405 1,625 2,025 2,460 2,895 3,335 3,820 19,645

- 650 755 1,005 1,110 1,275 1,560 1,945 2,300 2,670 13,270

- 200 225 235 315 450 550 600 650 700 3,925

- 100 150 165 200 300 350 350 385 450 2,450

1,670 2,110 3,412 3,824 5,352 7,217 8,888 12,108 14,280 58,861

- 105 485 827 1,319 2,217 3,297 4,918 7,643 9,445 30,256

- 1,565 1,625 2,585 2,505 3,135 3,920 3,970 4,465 4,835 28,605

2,620 3,240 4,817 5,449 7,377 9,677 11,783 15,443 18,100 78,506

900 1,340 1,800 2,280 3,300 4,100 6,300 10,600 9,600 40,220

3,520 4,580 6,617 7,729 10,677 13,777 18,083 26,043 27,700 118,726

1,300 4,900 7,000 9,000 12,400 18,300 21,700 28,500 30,100 133,200

: (2003)

( : )

- 20 -

, ,

, ,

. , IGCC, LFG

.

. ,

,

, .

3.

, (intermittency)

dispach

.

(NREC: North American Electric Reliability Council)

.

=(Installed capacity) x (capacity factor)

, Castro Ferreira [3]7)

.

, Weibull

(Weibull distribution) . ,

7)

3.

- 21 -

(Normal distribution) , , (Typical

power curve) .

.

R , L , W

, , P

(, )

, .

P(RL)=

r0 rW (R) ,

r0 rW

,

.

P(r0L)=, P(rWL-W)=

, (Capacity credit)

.

cW=r0-rW

, cW .

(capacity factor)

- , , , pv ,

-

,

.

- 22 -

.

.

. IGCC(Integrated

Gasification Combined Cycle, ), LFG(Land Fill Gas),

.

. IGCC

DME ( )

.

1. IGCC, LFG, (), ,

2. ()

3.

4.

. 1. IGCC, LFG, (), ,

8760

, 2. , 3.

. 8) , 35

,

.

8) 2003 35, 10

.

3.

- 23 -

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

( 1469)) 2003.10.28 - 2005.2.28

( 216, 136) 2002. 7.27 - 2005.2.28

( 98) 2002. 7.27 - 2005.2.28

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3

,

.

.

20% , 80%

(Head Difference)

29.53059 (, ) .

10 12

.

,

. 2011 , ,

.

.

,

.

9) .

- 24 -

.

- .

1.

2.

, , ,

. LDC(Load Duration Curve) ,

.

(, ,

) 1000 ,

2.5%, 97.5%

.10)

. LDC

(Load Duration Curve; LDC)

.

8760 Load Duration Curve

.

Load Duration Curve WASP

LOADSY DATA ,

.

10) x% load pattern

x% x% y%

.

3.

- 25 -

[ 3-1] Load Duration Curve

2000 2004 LDC LDC

. 2004 8760

load profile LDC .

.

1. 2 ()

*

2. 8760 load

profile

3. 3 LDC ,

5 WASP .

- 26 -

4.

(1) 8760 Load Profile

() 2004 Load Profile

: load

: load profile

: load profile

:

2004 load profile

(1)

.

() 2004 Load Profile

2004

load profile , load profile

(2)

,

(3)

,

3.

- 27 -

,

.11)

. WASP

(1)

,

.

, ,

, ,

. [ 3-2] .

, ,

,

.

.

,

WASP(Wien Automatic System Planning) .

11) ,

- 28 -

MW

G1

G2G1

G2

MW

G1

G2G1

G2

[ 3-2]

(2)

WASP .

TVAdml R.T. Jenkins ORNL Davis Toy TVA SAGE (System

Analysis Generation Expension) ,

(IAEA) .

WASP [ 3-3] .

LOADSY(Load System Description)

, 5

, Trucation

. FIXSYS(Fixed System Description)

, . VARSYS(Variable

System Description) .

CONGEN(Configuration Generator)

. MERSIM

(Merge and Simulate)

(Probabilistic Simulation)

LOLP . DYNPRO(Dynamic Programming Optimization)

WASP (Dynamic

3.

- 29 -

Programming) .

LOADSY

()

FIXSYS

(/ )

VARSYS

()

CONGEN

( )

MERSIM

()

DYNPRO

()

YES

NO

[ 3-3] WASP

(3) WASP

()

. ,

, , , .

,

.

()

(chronological load curve)

, , .

(Load Duration Curve; LDC) ,

, ,

- 30 -

. [ 3-4]

(inverted load duration curve) ,

.

DT

DT: (, )

(MW)

DT

(MW)

(Inverted Load Duration Curve)

DT

DT: (, )

(MW)

DT

DT: (, )

(MW)

DT

(MW)

DT

(MW)

(Inverted Load Duration Curve)

[ 3-4]

Truncation WASP

.

(convolution) (deconvolution)

.

.

()

()

, ( ) ( ) (2),

(3) .

3.

- 31 -

,

(ELDC : Equivalent Load Duration Curve) .

.

,

.

, [ 3-5]

.

(LOLP) .

,

.

,

.

( >=X)

(M W )

F10(x)

Unit1 Un it2 Un it3 Un it4 Un it5 Un it9Un it8Un it6 Un it7

( )

1 F3(x)F2(x)F1(x)F(x)

F6(x)F5(x)

F4(x)

F9(x)F8(x)F7(x)

Un it10

+

( )

[ 3-5]

- 32 -

(4)

stage( ) state

( ) . state

. [ 3-6] WASP

.

.

INITIALCONDITIO

N

STATE 1 STATE 3

STATE 4STATE 2 STATE 7

STATE 6

STATE 5

STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3

[ 3-6] 3

.

(+) ( ) .

LDC

LDC LDC data

() , (LOLP) , (BEST-MIX)

,

.

,

.

3.

- 33 -

.

2 ()

.

.

(: GWh, MW)

2003 293599 47385

2004 312067 51264

2005 328051 55023

2006 339804 57413

2007 349529 59697

2008 358410 61916

2009 366801 63981

2010 374452 66028

2011 381703 67995

2012 388775 69921

2013 395496 71748

2014 401731 73619

2015 407338 75553

2016 412313 77397

2017 416486 79266

** 2004 339,153 GWh

** 2 2004 312,063 GWh

2 ( )

- 34 -

2

.

LNG /

2003 18.315,716 14,740 14,518 4,320 312 1,191 3,877 1,379 56,053

(28.0) (26.3) (25.9) (7.7) (0.6) (2.1) (6.9) (2.5) (100.0)

2004 16.716,716 16,340 15,714 4,349 312 1,125 3,879 1,395 59,830

(27.9) (27.3) (26.3) (7.3) (0.5) (1.9) (6.5) (2.3) (100.0)

2005 16.317,716 16,840 16,339 4,349 354 1,125 4,382 1,615 62,720

(28.2) (26.8) (26.1) (6.9) (0.6) (1.8) (7.0) (2.6) (100.0)

2006 17.617,716 17,340 17,786 4,449 357 1,125 5,482 1,649 65,904

(26.9) (26.3) (27.0) (6.8) (0.5) (1.7) (8.3) (2.5) (100.0)

2007 20.0

17,716 18,840 17,786 4,549 359 1,125 5,482 2,181 68,038

(26.0) (27.7) (26.1) (6.7) (0.5) (1.7) (8.1) (3.2) (100.0)

2008 21.6

17,716 21,640 17,786 4,549 359 1,125 5,482 2,736 71,393

(24.8) (30.3) (24.9) (6.4) (0.5) (1.6) (7.7) (3.8) (100.0)

2009 23.417,716 22,940 17,786 4,549 359 1,325 5,482 2,988 73,145

(24.2) (31.4) (24.3) (6.2) (0.5) (1.8) (7.5) (4.1) (100.0)

2010 22.319,716 22,940 17,786 4,549 359 1,325 6,282 2,988 75,945

(26.0) (30.2) (23.4) (6.0) (0.5) (1.7) (8.3) (3.9) (100.0)

2011 22.023,116 22,440 17,786 3,829 194 1,325 6,282 2,988 77,960

(29.7) (28.8) (22.8) (4.9) (0.2) (1.7) (8.1) (3.8) (100.0)

2012 23.324,516 22,440 17,398 3,829 194 1,325 6,282 3,288 79,272

(30.9) (28.3) (21.9) (4.8) (0.2) (1.7) (7.9) (4.1) (100.0)

2013 21.523,837 22,440 17,398 3,429 194 1,200 6,282 3,288 78,068

(30.5) (28.7) (22.3) (4.4) (0.2) (1.5) (8.0) (4.2) (100.0)

2014 16.723,837 22,440 17,398 2,129 194 800 6,282 3,288 76,368

(31.2) (29.4) (22.8) (2.8) (0.3) (1.0) (8.2) (4.3) (100.0)

2015 16.925,237 23,040 16,898 2,129 194 800 6,282 3,288 77,868

(32.4) (29.6) (21.7) (2.7) (0.2) (1.0) (8.1) (4.2) (100.0)

2016 17.926,637 23,040 16,898 3,129 194 800 6,282 3,288 80,268

(33.2) (28.7) (21.1) (3.9) (0.2) (1.0) (7.8) (4.1) (100.0)

2017 16.826,637 23,040 16,898 3,129 194 800 6,282 3,288 80,268

(33.2) (28.7) (21.1) (3.9) (0.2) (1.0) (7.8) (4.1) (100.0)

2

4. IGCC, LFG, , ,

- 35 -

2 (03.9)

( : GWh)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

8 16 39 88 158 262 410 767 1,365 1,793 2,152 2,470 2,705 2,821 2,906

53 153 274 504 920 1,445 2,606 3,526 5,246 6,639 7,970 9,148 10,017 10,444 10,761

202 224 248 445 681 918 1,194 1,470 1,786 2,140 2,568 2,948 3,228 3,366 3,468

IGCC 79 79 79 2,138 4,356 6,336 7,606 8,730 9,560 9,967 10,269

LFG 616 1,233 1,849 2,465 3,081 3,384 3,698 4,000 4,314 4,616 5,541 6,361 6,965 7,262 7,482

1 1 5 13 42 175 894 1,711 2,622 3,147 3,612 3,956 4,124 4,249

3 3 573 573 843 1,726 1,726 2,072 2,378 2,604 2,715 2,797

879 1,626 2,410 3,509 4,935 6,703 8,735 13,638 20,503 25,872 31,056 35,647 39,036 40,698 41,932

288,594 299,981 311,051 321,179 330,452 339,452 347,673 355,321 362,924 369,973 395,496 401,731 407,338 412,313 416,486

2 293,599 312,067 328,051 339,804 349,529 358,410 366,801 374,452 381,703 388,775 395,496 401,731 407,338 412,313 416,486

(%) 0.30 0.50 0.80 1.10 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.90 5.60 6.99 7.85 8.87 9.58 9.87 10.07

2 (%) 0.30 0.52 0.73 1.03 1.41 1.87 2.38 3.64 5.37 6.65 7.85 8.87 9.58 9.87 10.07

4,264 4,271 4,268 4,327 4,233 4,363 4,435 4,644 4,851 5,067

5,143 5,897 6,678 7,836 9,168 11,066 13,170 18,282 25,354 30,938

(%) 1.80 2.00 2.10 2.40 2.80 3.30 3.80 5.20 7.00 8.40 8.40 8.40 8.40 8.40 8.40

: 2012 2 .

(2003 9 )

4. IGCC, LFG, , ,

IGCC(Integrated

Gasification Combined Cycle, ), LFG(Land Fill Gas),

.

- 36 -

. IGCC, LFG, 8760

.

,

.

,

.

20%

.

. IGCC, LFG, ,

1. ,

2. (2017 IGCC, LFG, )

3. ,

, .

(: MW)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IGCC0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 9.0410 9.0410 9.0410 244.110 497.260 723.288 868.234 996.572 1091.319 1137.788 1172.289

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0150 0.0150 0.0140 0.3700 0.7310 1.0340 1.2100 1.3540 1.4440 1.4700 1.4790

LFG70.354 140.708 211.050 281.404 351.758 386.267 422.112 456.621 492.454 526.975 632.580 726.085 795.116 828.972 854.110

0.1480 0.2740 0.3840 0.4900 0.5890 0.6240 0.6600 0.6920 0.7240 0.7540 0.8820 0.9860 1.0520 1.0710 1.0780

0.0000 0.0910 0.0680 0.5250 1.4380 4.8170 20.023 102.089 195.308 299.281 359.257 412.360 451.564 470.792 485.068

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0020 0.0080 0.0310 0.1550 0.2870 0.4280 0.5010 0.5600 0.5980 0.6080 0.6120

70.354 140.799 211.119 281.929 362.237 400.126 451.176 802.820 1185.023 1549.543 1860.071 2135.016 2338.000 2437.552 2511.467

0.1480 0.2750 0.3840 0.4910 0.6070 0.6460 0.7050 1.2160 1.7430 2.2160 2.5930 2.9000 3.0950 3.1490 3.1680

4. IGCC, LFG, , ,

- 37 -

(: MW)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IGCC0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 9.041 9.041 9.041 244.110 497.260 723.288 868.234 996.572 1091.319 1137.788 1172.289

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.370 0.731 1.034 1.210 1.354 1.444 1.470 1.479

LFG70.354 140.708 211.050 281.404 351.758 386.267 422.112 456.621 492.454 526.975 632.580 726.085 795.116 828.972 854.110

0.148 0.274 0.384 0.490 0.589 0.624 0.660 0.692 0.724 0.754 0.882 0.986 1.052 1.071 1.078

0.000 0.091 0.068 0.525 1.438 4.817 20.023 102.089 195.308 299.281 359.257 412.360 451.564 470.792 485.068

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.008 0.031 0.155 0.287 0.428 0.501 0.560 0.598 0.608 0.612

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.068 0.068 13.082 13.082 19.247 39.406 39.406 47.303 54.296 59.458 61.989 63.869

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.021 0.020 0.029 0.058 0.056 0.066 0.074 0.079 0.080 0.081

70.354 140.799 211.119 281.998 362.306 413.208 464.258 822.066 1224.429 1588.950 1907.374 2189.312 2397.458 2499.541 2575.336

0.148 0.275 0.384 0.491 0.607 0.667 0.726 1.245 1.801 2.272 2.658 2.974 3.173 3.230 3.249

-

.

. ,

,

.

(1)

()

, , .

,

.

.

.

- 38 -

2002 10MW

, ,

.

[ 4-1] ()

70

,

. 10

. 2002

,

2004 73.69/kWh .

1984 1985 1986 1991 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

40.29 38.54 38.45 41.67 48.09 48.38 49.94 54.84 60.93 60.23 63.51 73.69

: (2003)

( : /kWh)

()

2003 35, 10

.

, 2003 188GWh 2001

84GWh . 2MW 3MW

4. IGCC, LFG, , ,

- 39 -

9, 73.3GWh 39.1%

.

1MW1MW~

1MW

1MW~

1MW1MW

13 10 9 3 35

(GWh/)

20.0(10.7%)

45.3(24.1%)

73.3(39.1%)

49.0(26.1%)

187.6(100%)

: ()

,

.

- 40 -

(MWh/)

(kW) (MW) 2001 2002 2003

1975. 4 1300 2 2.60 4,596 8808 12,556

1978. 6 150 3 0.45 1,003 1634 1,265

1969. 5

1978. 8

600 21.40 1,967 2965 2,060 ()

100 2

1986. 2 495 6 2.97 3,010 4748 5,287 ()

1986. 8 550 2 1.10 3,335 3100 5,338 ()

1987. 7 480 5 2.40 6,707 9384 12,557 ()

1988. 9 500 4 2.00 6,087 7388 8,668 ()

1987. 3 530 4 2.12 7,664 9243 11,533 ()

1989. 4 350 6 2.10 6,665 6755 11,217 ()

1988. 3 450 3 1.35 3,114 3603 4,208 ()

1989. 9500 1

0.82 2,560 2400 3,914 320 1

1987. 1 500 4 2.00 2,817 3165 5,319

22,864

1991.11 450 1 0.45 2,800 2788 3,317 ()

1992. 4 400 7 2.80 225 1043 0 ()

1993. 31000 2

2.60 4,113 4265 6,184 ()300 2

1993. 5 480 4 1.92 5,290 4718 2,884 ()

1993. 6 500 6 3.00 - 1956 8,477 ()

1995. 6 400 2 0.80 1,819 2275 4,054

1996.10 530 2 1.06 2,318 3034 3,139 ()

1997.12145 1

0.70 2,523 3540 3,227 556 1

1998. 6 193 1 0.19 1,500 1432 1,039

1998.11 330 1 0.33 27 811 608 ()

1999. 9500 3

1.80 3,547 3938 6,987 ()300 1

2000. 8 500 2 1.00 4,877 5297 6,331

2001. 8 500 2 1.00 1,054 3881 5,263

2001.10 650 2 1.30 299 6781 8,271

2001. 81150 2

4.10 3,815 - 17,584 1800 1

2001.12 400 1 0.40 - 1517 1,665 ()

2002. 1 36 1 0.036 - 110 100

2002. 5 20 2 0.04 - - 10

2003. 4 400 1 0.40 - 828

2003. 9 500 3 1.50 - 798

2004. 2 250 1 0.25 -

2004.12 340 1 0.34 -

42.4 83,734 110,579 187,612

: ()

4. IGCC, LFG, , ,

- 41 -

(2)

()

.

, [ 4-2]

.

[ 4-2]

()

. Retscreen ( )

,

,

.

- 42 -

.

.12)

13) ( )

, ln ()

, , () .

()

,

(residual flow) ,

.

()

.

. 1

, 1 365 .

12) (2003)

13) http://www.wamis.go.kr/WKW/RF_DUBRFOBS.ASPX

4. IGCC, LFG, , ,

- 43 -

()

,

, 6

. ,

,

.

, ,

.

1

,

.

- 44 -

,

.

.

.

5.

.

, 1 687

( ) .

,

.

, ,

,

,

.

, , , , , ,

, , 7 ( 7 ).

5.

- 45 -

,

.

.

20%, 80% .

,

.

(2002.11) 5

21 kW

7.4m

. 12(21kW), 6(12m12m)

.

- 46 -

21kW

5.

- 47 -

[ 5-1] 19kW

426

433 (Starting Head Difference)

([ 5-1])

- 48 -

. 12 (,

423) .

12 x 22.29(MW)=267.48(MW)

. , ,

.

:

:

:

:

:

.

.

, 12 x 22.29(MW)=267.48(MW)

.

5.

- 49 -

t-

12.349 0.195 63.320

35.645 0.360 99.065

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4(: m)

(: MWh)

[ 5-2]

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4(: m)

(: ))

[ 5-3]

- 50 -

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8(: )

(: MWh)

[ 5-4]

. 426

.

[ 5-5]

5.

- 51 -

.

20%

. 80% ,

29.53059 ,

2017

.

.

7-8 , 2004 5 10

, 1 10.63

51 + 10.63 1031 + 10.63 .

8760 5 1 1 2881

10 31 24 7296 .

5, 7, 8, 10 31 6, 9 30

4116

. 95%

.

.

1. ,

2. ,

,

3. LDC

.

- 52 -

dpt :

7 28 15 .(5031 )

dpt

2006 0 4417

2007 0 4417

2008 0 3450

2008 357 967

2009 0 3479

2009 357 938

2010 0 3311

2010 357 1106

2011 0 3184

2011 357 1233

2012 0 3162

2012 357 1255

2013 0 3158

2013 357 1258

2013 360 1

2014 0 3157

2014 357 1254

2014 360 6

2015 -24 1

2015 0 3119

2015 357 1282

2015 360 15

2016 -24 1

2016 0 3152

2016 357 1250

2016 360 14

2017 -24 1

2017 0 3135

2017 357 1272

2017 360 9

dpt

5.

- 53 -

[ 5-6] 2006

[ 5-7] 2007

- 54 -

[ 5-8] 2008

[ 5-9] 2009

5.

- 55 -

[ 5-10] 2010

[ 5-11] 2011

- 56 -

[ 5-12] 2012

[ 5-13] 2013

5.

- 57 -

[ 5-14] 2014

[ 5-15] 2015

- 58 -

[ 5-16] 2016

[ 5-17] 2017

5.

- 59 -

[ 5-18] ,

- 60 -

6.

.

,

.

(array) (storage

battery), (power controller) (inverter)

.

[ 6-1]

: (http://www.solarkorea.org)

:

() :

:

:

6.

- 61 -

[ 6-2]

.

. , ,

.

,

,14)

, .

.

(kWp)

391

(148kW), (60kW),

(60kW), (53kW), (30kW),

(20kW), (10kW), (10kW)

BIPV215

(45kW), SDI()(60kW),

(10kW), (100kW)

62.8 (8kW), (4.8kW)

.

203.9 (1.2kW), 599(120kW)

()165.6

(15.2kW), (30kW), (0.8kW)

(46kW) : (http://www.solarkorea.org)

(2001~2004)

14) (1.96 cal/.min) : ,

- 62 -

.

2004-2005

()

,

.

[ 6-3]

6.

- 63 -

(1) (, declination)

(the angular position)

23.45 . / 0

(1221) -23.45, (6 21) +23.45 .

1

, .

() ()1) ( )

1 17 17 -20.9

2 31+ 16 47 -13.0

3 59+ 16 75 -2.4

4 90+ 15 105 9.4

5 120+ 15 135 18.8

6 151+ 11 162 23.1

7 181+ 17 198 21.2

8 212+ 16 228 13.5

9 243+ 15 258 2.2

10 273+ 15 288 -9.6

11 304+ 14 318 -18.9

12 334+ 10 334 -23.0 : Duffie J. A., Beckman W. A., "Solar Engineering of Thermal Process", John Wiley &Sons,

Inc., 1991

1 : 3 1

(2) ( ) ()

(-),

- 64 -

(+) , 0 15 .

.

8760

.

(3)

( .

.

"( ) ,

0.3 0.8 .

(4)

( , beam radiation) ( , diffuse

radiation) . ,

81.4 ,

6.

- 65 -

81.4 .

, PV(Photovoltaic)

. ,

.

.

PV , , ,

.

,

, ,

. PV

.

- 66 -

(5) PV

PV .

.

, , PV , , .

PV module type (%) () (%/)

Mono-Si 13.0 45 0.40

Poly_Si 11.0 45 0.40

a-Si 5.0 50 0.11

CdTe 7.0 46 0.24

CIS 7.5 47 0.46

PV

. .

6.

- 67 -

PV

.

,

.

(On-Grid) Model,

. ,

, .

.

,

. () .

.

1MW .

50kW ,

- 68 -

1MW .

.

PV

.

1

. 2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24, 15),

, , , 5

.

(:)

[ 6-4] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24)

15)

.

6.

- 69 -

(:)

[ 6-5] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24)

(:)

[ 6-6] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24)

(:)

[ 6-7] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24)

- 70 -

(:)

[ 6-8] (2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24)

.

365 x 5

24 ,

, 2

20 5 30 ,

9 10 .

. 1000 ,

97.5% 2.5% .16)

1. ,

2. ,

,

3. LDC

.

16) , 97.5% 2.5% .

6.

- 71 -

dpt :

7 28 15 .(5031 )

dpt

2006 0 1000

2007 0 1000

2008 0 993

2008 357 7

2009 0 950

2009 357 50

2010 0 805

2010 357 195

2011 0 713

2011 357 287

2012 0 662

2012 357 338

2013 0 655

2013 357 345

2014 0 626

2014 357 373

2014 360 1

2015 0 621

2015 357 376

2015 360 3

2016 0 655

2016 357 344

2016 360 1

2017 0 634

2017 357 363

2017 360 3

- 72 -

[ 6-9] 2006

[ 6-10] 2007

6.

- 73 -

[ 6-11] 2008

[ 6-12] 2009

- 74 -

[ 6-13] 2010

[ 6-14] 2011

6.

- 75 -

[ 6-15] 2012

[ 6-16] 2013

- 76 -

[ 6-17] 2014

[ 6-18] 2015

6.

- 77 -

[ 6-19] 2016

[ 6-20] 2017

- 78 -

7.

.

MW ,

. 20

.

.

Kavak(2004) RETScreen 17) Weibull

Rayleigh , Rayleigh Weibull

shape factor 2 . Dowell(1996) Weibull

, Kavak(2004) Keban-Elazig

Weibull Rayleigh .

Jaramillo(2004) Mexico La Ventosa

( ) Weibull

, bimodal (bimodal Probability Distribution

Function)) .

, ,

, .

53,000TWh

. 2020 (25,579TWh) 2

(EWEA, 2004).

2.1610kWh , (/, 2001).

,

17) RETScreen 'Natural Resources Canada'

(http://www.retscreen.net/ang/menu.php)

7.

- 79 -

,

([ 7-1] ).

.

P=12

C pV3A

, Cp

, , V , A ,

.

,

.

[ 7-1]

:www.awea.org/faq/tutorial/wwt_basics.html

(cut-in wind speed)

, 3.

54.5m/s . (rated wind speed)

3 ,

. (cut- out wind speed)

,

20m/s .

- 80 -

,

(/

, 2001).

. EWEA 15

2~3% , 1980 8.8 cents

/kWh 4.1 cents/kWh 15 50% ,

,

. 1 20 25kW 2.5MW

, 3.6MW ,

5MW (EWEA, 2003, 2004).

AWEA(2004) 2003

8,133MW (2002 26% ) 2003

39,361MW ,

19 .

90% ,

2003 408MW ,

2002 .

.

2002

2003

2003

2002

(2003 )

4,685 1,687 6,372 36% 16.2%

236 81 317 34% 0.8%

23,308 5,467 28,775 23% 73.1%

1,702 408 2,110 24% 5.4%

468 100 568 21% 1.4%

414 272 686 66% 1.7%

415 118 533 28% 1.4%

2,999 898 3,897 30% 9.9%

31,228

(32,037)

8,133

(8,344)

39,361

(40,301)26% 100.0%

*:AWEA(2004), ( ) EWEA

(2003 , : MW)

7.

- 81 -

.

, Weibull

, Weibull scale factor shape factor

scale factor , Weibull

shape factor .

p(x)=kC (xC )

k-1

exp{-( xC )k

} (1)

p(x) :

k : shape factor (13 )

C=Vh

(1+1h)

: h scale factor, gamma

Vh :

,

, .

Vh=Vm(HhHm )

a

Vm :

Hh :

Hm:

a : wind shear exponent(0.10.4 )

Px , , , blade icing

.

E= 24365 25

x= 0P xp(x) (2)

E :

Px : (kW)

- 82 -

, , blade icing

(renewable).

E re=EPmP s

T sTm

(1- a)(1- i)(1- d)(1- m) (3)

Pm : (kPa)

Ps : (103.3 kPa)

Tm : (k)

Ts : (288.1k)

a : (020%)

i : blade (0

10%)

d : (27%)

m : (26%)

.

.

.

,

.

()

Px

7.

- 83 -

.

. 2003, 2005

() 2008

.18)

2005 2003, 2008

2003, 2008

. 2005

.

.

.

18) 8 .

- 84 -

Vestas Vestas Vestas Vestas VestasLagerwe

yVestas Vestas

LAGER

WEY

NORWI

N 29Suzlon

LAGER

WEY

30/250

NORWIN 29

-STALL

S.60/1,25

0

RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS *1) RETS

2000 1750 1650 1500 850 750 660 600 250 225 1250

0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0

4 33.4 33.3 13.5 29.8 25.5 11.0 2.9 0.0 4.4 1 26.0

5 94.3 93.9 80.8 88.5 67.4 40.0 43.8 18.9 15.3 10 78.0

6 178.0 178.0 169.0 182.2 125.0 85.0 96.7 57.4 30.8 29 145.0

7 294.0 294.0 289.0 306.8 203.0 147.0 166.0 106.0 51.3 55 230.0

8 451.0 452.0 448.0 472.0 304.0 229.0 252.0 166.0 76.6 86 350.0

9 655.0 655.0 644.0 682.7 425.0 334.0 350.0 239.0 109.8 117 530.0

10 901.0 900.0 858.0 951.6 554.0 465.0 450.0 320.0 151.5 145 704.0

11 1169.0 1167.0 1069.0 1260.6 671.0 626.0 538.0 402.0 198.6 171 860.0

12 1433.0 1418.0 1263.0 1500.0 759.0 730.0 600.0 476.0 227.5 191 980.0

13 1667.0 1603.0 1431.0 1500.0 811.0 750.0 635.0 532.0 246.7 207 1,120.0

14 1843.0 1702.0 1552.0 1500.0 836.0 750.0 651.0 568.0 250.0 218 1,250.0

15 1943.0 1739.0 1617.0 1500.0 846.0 750.0 657.0 587.0 250.0 224 1,250.0

16 1985.0 1748.0 1642.0 1500.0 849.0 750.0 659.0 595.0 250.0 228 1,250.0

17 1997.0 1750.0 1649.0 1500.0 850.0 750.0 660.0 599.0 250.0 228 1,250.0

18 2000.0 1750.0 1650.0 1500.0 850.0 750.0 660.0 600.0 250.0 227 1,250.0

19 2000.0 1750.0 1650.0 1500.0 850.0 750.0 660.0 600.0 250.0 225 1,250.0

20 2000.0 1750.0 1650.0 1500.0 850.0 750.0 660.0 600.0 250.0 222 1,250.0

21 2000.0 1750.0 1650.0 1500.0 850.0 750.0 660.0 600.0 250.0 218 1,250.0

22 2000.0 1750.0 1650.0 1500.0 850.0 750.0 660.0 600.0 250.0 215 1,250.0

23 2000.0 1750.0 1650.0 1500.0 850.0 750.0 660.0 600.0 250.0 212 1,250.0

24 2000.0 1750.0 1650.0 1500.0 850.0 750.0 660.0 600.0 250.0 212.0 1,250.0

25 2000.0 1750.0 1650.0 1500.0 850.0 750.0 660.0 600.0 250.0 213.0 1,250.0

-

7.

- 85 -

Vestas Vestas Vestas Vestas Vestas Lagerwey Vestas Vestas LAGERWEY NORWIN 29 Suzlon

2003

LAGER

WEY

30/250

NORWIN 29

-STALLS.60/1,250

RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS *1) RETS

2000 1750 1650 1500 850 750 660 600 250 225 1250

3

5 7 2 1

4

1

9 11 2 0 1 0

0 0 0 0 0 6750 7260 1200 0 225 0

(2003)

Vestas Vestas Vestas Vestas Vestas Lagerwey Vestas Vestas LAGERWEY NORWIN 29 Suzlon

2005

LAGE

RWEY

30/250

NORWIN 29

-STALLS.60/1,250

RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS *1) RETS

2000 1750 1650 1500 850 750 660 600 250 225 1250

1 4

5 7 2 1

6

1

4

1

24

2

1

0 0 24 4 2 13 12 2 1 1 0

0 0 39600 6000 1700 9750 7920 1200 250 225 0

(2005)

- 86 -

Vestas Vestas Vestas Vestas Vestas Lagerwey Vestas Vestas LAGERWEY NORWIN 29 Suzlon

2008

LAGE

RWEY

30/250

NORWIN 29

-STALLS.60/1,250

RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS RETS *1) RETS

2000 1750 1650 1500 850 750 660 600 250 225 1250

49 1 4

5 7 2 1

10

1

7 4

1

24

50 2 10

1

3

200

200

100

10

20

25

10

14

471 0 24 204 2 34 12 2 1 1 10

942000 0 39600 306000 1700 25500 7920 1200 250 225 12500

: 2008 2 .

(2008 )

,

.

.

:

:

* 2005

*

.

7.

- 87 -

(

)

.

[ 7-2]

[ 7-3] 8 fitting

- 88 -

()

1

. 2000 9 12 0 2001 9 11 24, ,

, , , 5

.

.

365 x 5

24 ,

, 5 9

. 1000 ,

97.5%

2.5% .19)

1. ,

2. ,

,

3. LDC

.

19) , 97.5% 2.5% .

7.

- 89 -

dpt :

7 28 15 .(5031 )

dpt

2006 0 942

2006 357 58

2007 0 813

2007 357 187

2008 0 724

2008 357 276

2009 -24 1

2009 0 665

2009 357 334

2010 -24 3

2010 0 597

2010 357 400

2011 -24 19

2011 0 605

2011 285 3

2011 357 373

2012 -24 47

2012 0 539

2012 24 4

2012 285 4

2012 357 406

2013 -24 57

2013 0 492

2013 24 6

2013 285 13

2013 357 429

2013 360 3

2014 -24 55

2014 0 524

2014 24 4

2014 285 25

2014 333 1

2014 357 389

2014 360 2

2015 -24 73

2015 0 504

2015 24 10

2015 285 32

2015 333 2

2015 357 379

2016 -24 64

2016 0 495

2016 24 8

2016 285 19

2016 333 2

2016 357 412

2017 -24 72

2017 0 480

2017 24 6

2017 285 22

2017 357 417

2017 360 3

W2006.bmp - W2017.bmp

- 90 -

[ 7-4] 2006

[ 7-5] 2007

7.

- 91 -

[ 7-6] 2008

[ 7-7] 2009

- 92 -

[ 7-8] 2010

[ 7-9] 2011

7.

- 93 -

[ 7-10] 2012

[ 7-11] 2013

- 94 -

[ 7-12] 2014

[ 7-13] 2015

7.

- 95 -

[ 7-14] 2016

[ 7-15] 2017

- 96 -

8.

. 1000 ,

95% (2.5%, 97.5%) , ,

2.5%, 97.5%, .

,

, .

.

(%) 2.50% (%) 97.50% (%) (%)

2006 10.06 0.02 11.87 0.02 117.11 0.20 175.86 0.31

2007 16.12 0.03 19.52 0.03 194.57 0.33 310.84 0.52

2008 25.61 0.04 31.45 0.05 276.03 0.45 458.58 0.74

2009 45.66 0.07 57.39 0.09 505.68 0.79 722.77 1.13

2010 58.58 0.09 75.14 0.11 628.13 0.95 954.74 1.45

2011 88.06 0.13 111.20 0.16 940.19 1.38 1328.12 1.95

2012 120.17 0.17 139.83 0.20 1123.61 1.61 1590.73 2.28

2013 136.78 0.19 165.40 0.23 1343.55 1.87 1746.33 2.43

2014 156.90 0.21 184.98 0.25 1404.31 1.91 2100.58 2.85

2015 167.50 0.22 208.85 0.28 1594.51 2.11 2124.65 2.81

2016 178.78 0.23 218.29 0.28 1566.72 2.02 2550.54 3.30

2017 184.07 0.23 219.69 0.28 1712.82 2.16 2308.48 2.91

(: MW)

(%) 2.50% (%) 97.50% (%) (%)

2006 15.17 0.03 21.88 0.04 43.65 0.08 48.71 0.08

2007 25.77 0.04 38.89 0.07 78.45 0.13 83.54 0.14

2008 40.51 0.07 67.41 0.11 130.07 0.21 147.56 0.24

2009 43.39 0.07 101.49 0.16 201.83 0.32 210.95 0.33

2010 110.67 0.17 185.75 0.28 370.25 0.56 387.94 0.59

2011 174.86 0.26 318.33 0.47 647.59 0.95 710.42 1.04

2012 308.01 0.44 425.21 0.61 853.76 1.22 929.69 1.33

2013 144.72 0.20 510.40 0.71 1018.72 1.42 1099.92 1.53

2014 372.62 0.51 599.11 0.81 1163.62 1.58 1246.89 1.69

2015 421.95 0.56 626.06 0.83 1273.20 1.69 1366.45 1.81

2016 518.28 0.67 671.92 0.87 1331.50 1.72 1473.57 1.90

2017 318.23 0.40 690.78 0.87 1364.59 1.72 1468.21 1.85

:

(: MW)

8.

- 97 -

(%) 2.50% (%) 97.50% (%) (%)

2006 0.20 0.00 0.29 0.00 1.02 0.00 1.02 0.00

2007 0.20 0.00 0.30 0.00 1.02 0.00 1.02 0.00

2008 26.02 0.04 49.44 0.08 195.26 0.32 195.26 0.32

2009 26.02 0.04 49.44 0.08 195.26 0.31 195.26 0.31

2010 38.28 0.06 68.91 0.10 280.15 0.42 287.27 0.44

2011 78.38 0.12 172.44 0.25 553.15 0.81 588.17 0.87

2012 78.38 0.11 172.44 0.25 553.71 0.79 588.17 0.84

2013 94.09 0.13 206.99 0.29 664.00 0.93 706.04 0.98

2014 182.82 0.25 237.59 0.32 762.15 1.04 810.41 1.10

2015 200.20 0.26 272.01 0.36 834.61 1.10 887.46 1.17

2016 208.73 0.27 283.59 0.37 870.15 1.12 925.24 1.20

2017 215.06 0.27 292.19 0.37 896.54 1.13 953.30 1.20

:

(: MW)

.

.

(2-5) (1-5)

. ,

,

.

.

- 98 -

(1-1) (1-2) (1-3) (1-4) (1-5) (2-3) (2-4) (2-5)

2006 57413 57080 57080 57058 56978 57079 57035 57008

2007 59697 59257 59257 59218 59061 59256 59178 59062

2008 61916 61398 61372 61304 61217 61207 61087 61024

2009 63981 63380 63354 63250 63095 63189 63008 62953

2010 66028 65038 65000 64810 64497 64757 64492 64239

2011 67995 66567 66488 66136 65907 65978 65303 64893

2012 69921 68088 68009 67549 67459 67500 66661 66441

2013 71748 69547 69453 68893 68155 68855 67794 67541

2014 73619 71093 70899 70240 69890 70283 69218 68351

2015 75553 72787 72574 71880 70947 71900 70878 69627

2016 77397 74513 74291 73566 72023 73604 72233 71480

2017 79266 76295 76066 75324 73494 75358 73908 72747:

(1-1) :

(1-2) :

(1-3) : + (2.5%)

(1-4) : + + (2.5%)

(1-5) : + + + (2.5%)

(2-3) : + (97.5%)

(2-4) : + + (97.5%)

(2-5) : + + + (97.5%)

(: MW)

(1-1) (1-2) (1-3) (1-4) (1-5) (2-3) (2-4) (2-5)

2006 100 99.42 99.42 99.38 99.24 99.42 99.34 99.29

2007 100 99.26 99.26 99.20 98.93 99.26 99.13 98.94

2008 100 99.16 99.12 99.01 98.87 98.85 98.66 98.56

2009 100 99.06 99.02 98.86 98.62 98.76 98.48 98.39

2010 100 98.50 98.44 98.16 97.68 98.08 97.67 97.29

2011 100 97.90 97.78 97.27 96.93 97.03 96.04 95.44

2012 100 97.38 97.27 96.61 96.48 96.54 95.34 95.02

2013 100 96.93 96.80 96.02 94.99 95.97 94.49 94.14

2014 100 96.57 96.31 95.41 94.93 95.47 94.02 92.84

2015 100 96.34 96.06 95.14 93.90 95.16 93.81 92.16

2016 100 96.27 95.99 95.05 93.06 95.10 93.33 92.36

2017 100 96.25 95.96 95.03 92.72 95.07 93.24 91.78

(: %)

8.

- 99 -

(1-1) (1-2) (1-3) (1-4) (1-5) (2-3) (2-4) (2-5)

2006 100 0.58 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.00 0.08 0.05

2007 100 0.74 0.00 0.07 0.26 0.00 0.13 0.19

2008 100 0.84 0.04 0.11 0.14 0.31 0.19 0.10

2009 100 0.94 0.04 0.16 0.24 0.30 0.28 0.09

2010 100 1.50 0.06 0.29 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.38

2011 100 2.10 0.12 0.52 0.34 0.87 0.99 0.60

2012 100 2.62 0.11 0.66 0.13 0.84 1.20 0.31

2013 100 3.07 0.13 0.78 1.03 0.96 1.48 0.35

2014 100 3.43 0.26 0.90 0.48 1.10 1.45 1.18

2015 100 3.66 0.28 0.92 1.23 1.17 1.35 1.66

2016 100 3.73 0.29 0.94 1.99 1.17 1.77 0.97

2017 100 3.75 0.29 0.94 2.31 1.18 1.83 1.46

(: %)

.

LNG

.

(/kW)

(/kWh)

(/kWh)

147249 86194 233443 23.14 36.9

135627 85864 221491 89.86 22.5

65100 83634 148734 122.17 13.49

LNG 97414 83634 181048 74.41 8.84

264153 91230 355383 80.31 25.3

287733 86442 374175 6.74 0

113281 83634 196915 60.93 8.84

http://www.dsmcenter.org/DSM/PROJECT/main_project.aspx

2.5% 97.5%

.

- 100 -

. (L-R) 97.5%

[ 8-1] 2006 (L-R) 97.5%

[ 8-2] 2007 (L-R) 97.5%

8.

- 101 -

[ 8-3] 2008 (L-R) 97.5%

[ 8-4] 2009 (L-R) 97.5%

- 102 -

[ 8-5] 2010 (L-R) 97.5%

[ 8-6] 2011 (L-R) 97.5%

8.

- 103 -

[ 8-7] 2012 (L-R) 97.5%

[ 8-8] 2013 (L-R) 97.5%

- 104 -

[ 8-9] 2014 (L-R) 97.5%

[ 8-10] 2015 (L-R) 97.5%

8.

- 105 -

[ 8-11] 2016 (L-R) 97.5%

[ 8-12] 2017 (L-R) 97.5%

- 106 -

. (L-R) 2.5%

[ 8-13] 2006 (L-R) 2.5%

[ 8-14] 2007 (L-R) 2.5%

8.

- 107 -

[ 8-15] 2008 (L-R) 2.5%

[ 8-16] 2009 (L-R) 2.5%

- 108 -

[ 8-17] 2010 (L-R) 2.5%

[ 8-18] 2011 (L-R) 2.5%

8.

- 109 -

[ 8-19] 2012 (L-R) 2.5%

[ 8-20] 2013 (L-R) 2.5%

- 110 -

[ 8-21] 2014 (L-R) 2.5%

[ 8-22] 2015 (L-R) 2.5%

8.

- 111 -

[ 8-23] 2016 (L-R) 2.5%

[ 8-24] 2017 (L-R) 2.5%

- 112 -

9.

WASP

, (04 ), LNG (04 )

13(20052017)

15

.

. CO2 ,

,

.

() WASP

2005 2017 2 1 15

(12.4%) .

.

, ,

.

()

,

.

(RPS)

.

(RPA;

Renewable Portfolio Agreement) , RPS

(RPA) .

RPS

. RPA 9 , ,

, , , , , ,

.

.

9.

- 113 -

, 200kW

.

()

(Non-Dispatch)

, . ,

.

,

. (Wind energy to

conventional energy dispatch ratio: W to G ratio)

.

.

()

CO2

.

. CDM

.

. 1)

, ,

2) ,

3) .

- 114 -

SMP 52.90134(2003-4 ) ,

SMP

.

, 2011 1

5 .

3 6, 2 5

.

,

2020

31 .

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

.

,

(penetration)

.

(intermittency) dispach

.

.

.

.

.

9.

- 115 -

.

.

.

.

. R&D ,

.

.

.

capacity value .

.

.

,

.

,

.

.

- 116 -

10.

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, 2003,

, 2004. 12. , ,

, http://www.wamis.go.kr

, (http://www.kma.go.kr).

, 2001, , , .

, , , 2004, Feed-in tariffs

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, 2004,

, 2003 5 27 ( 06885), 2004

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2002 5 27 (

2002-108) 2004 10. 20 ( 2004-104)

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, 2000 2 25 , 2004 4 20

, 1991 11 , 2000 4 1

, http://www.wind-energie.de

, , 2003. ,

14 1, pp. 61~68

, 2002, 3kW PV

, 2003, , http://www.mocie.go.kr/

, 2004, -

, 2004,

, 2004,

, 2003, ,

http://www.portalenergy.com/

, , , 2000, ,

, 2003, CDM baseline .

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