「2017環球新局勢與香港出口展望」研討會Seminar on “The New Global Context and Hong Kong’s Export Outlook in 2017”

保局主辦的「2017環球新局勢與

香港出口展望」研討會已於2016年

11月21日圓滿舉行。信保局諮詢

委員會主席嚴志明教授,JP致辭時表示，2016年

環球經濟整體表現呆滯，當中美國新總統

上任對經濟的影響有待觀察；歐元區經濟

復甦步伐雖尚算穩定，但英國脫歐的影響

並未全面浮現，而日本經濟表現則仍然乏善

足陳。面對環球經濟不確定性，信保局為

香港出口商提供適時服務及保障產品，包括

為中小企而設的「小營業額保單」及免費買家

信用評估服務，協助出口商審慎管理放帳

風險。

he ECIC organised a seminar on “The New Global Context and

Hong Kong’s Export Outlook in 2017” on 21 November 2016. In

his opening remarks, Professor Eric C. Yim, JP, Chairman of the

ECIC Advisory Board, said that the global economy remained stagnant

in 2016. The effect of the new US president’s inauguration has yet to be

seen. The Eurozone’s economy continued its steady recovery pace, but

the influence of Brexit has not fully emerged. Meanwhile, Japan’s

economic performance remained lacklustre. To assist exporters in facing

global uncertainties, the ECIC provides timely services and enhanced

measures including the “Small Business Policy” and free buyer credit

assessments to help them manage their credit risks.

T信

信保局諮詢委員會主席嚴志明教授,JP (右一)及信保局總監黎衍平(左一)與主講嘉賓合照。

ECIC Advisory Board Chairman Professor Eric C. Yim, JP (right first), ECIC Commissioner Ralph Lai (left first) and guest speakers.

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四位嘉賓講者在研討會上發表主題演講，

其中阿里巴巴B2B台灣暨香港分公司總經理

傅紀清先生就如何在急速的電子商務發展中

抓緊商機分享心得；安聯投資亞洲首席基金

投資總監陳致強先生亦為2017環球經濟及

香港出口作出前瞻；恒生投資服務有限公司

首席分析員溫灼培先生發表美國新總統及

英國脫歐下外匯市場的展望；而羅夏信律師

事務所合夥人馮敬德先生則分享降低物流

及網上詐騙風險的建議。

此外，香港特別行政區政府駐粵經濟

貿易辦事處、工業貿易署中小企業支援與

諮詢中心、香港貿易發展局、香港生產力

促進局、香港總商會、香港中華總商會、

香港中華廠商聯合會、香港工業總會、香港

出口商會、香港中華出入口商會、香港中小型

企業總商會、香港中小型企業聯合會、香港

中小企經貿促進會、香港中小企業發展促進會

及香港中小企業總會亦鼎力支持信保局，

擔任研討會的支持機構。

本期《信息》特別輯錄當日的演講內容，

以供讀者參考。

Four distinguished guests were invited as speakers at the seminar.

Mr Bryan Fu, General Manager of Alibaba.com for Taiwan and

Hong Kong, discussed seizing business opportunities amidst the rapid

development of e-commerce. Mr Raymond Chan, Chief Investment

Officer Equity, Asia Pacific of Allianz Global Investors, presented the

global economic outlook for 2017 and its effects on Hong Kong’s

exports. Mr Mark Wan, Chief Analyst, Hang Seng Investment Services

Limited, expressed his views on the foreign exchange markets after the

US presidential election and Brexit. Mr King-Tak Fung, Partner of

Stephenson Harwood, Hong Kong, also shared his advice on in

managing logistics and email fraud risks in global supply chains.

The seminar was well supported by the Hong Kong Economic and

Trade Office in Guangdong of the HKSAR Government, the Support and

Consultation Centre for SMEs (SUCCESS) of the Trade and Industry

Department, Hong Kong Trade Development Council, Hong Kong

Productivity Council, Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, The

Chinese General Chamber of Commerce, The Chinese Manufacturers’

Association of Hong Kong, Federation of Hong Kong Industries, The

Hong Kong Exporters’ Association, The Hong Kong Chinese Importers &

Exporters’ Association, The Hong Kong General Chamber of Small and

Medium Business, Hong Kong Small & Medium Enterprises Development

Federation, Hong Kong (SME) Economic and Trade Promotion Association,

Hong Kong Promotion Association for Small and Medium Enterprises and

the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises General Association.

Summaries of the speeches are as follows.

如欲重溫研討會內容，請登入信保局網站 www.hkecic.com。Seminar webcast is available at the ECIC website www.hkecic.com

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傅紀清

阿里巴巴B2B台灣暨香港分公司總經理

Bryan FuGeneral Manager Alibaba.com for Taiwan and Hong Kong

如何在急速的電子商務發展中抓緊商機Seizing Business Opportunities in theRapid Development of E-commerce

港早於60年代已開始發展工商業，

多年來除誕生了許多企業家外，

更成功躋身全球知名的商品輸出地，

為經濟發展奠下深厚的基礎。中小企如能掌握

新商業模式的概念，利用大數據及電子商貿

蓬勃發展為全球外貿所帶來的轉變和機遇，

定能在現今競爭劇烈的外貿市場盡佔先機，

為企業傳承及發展闖出新路向。

大數據就如未來的石油一樣，是企業未來

發展的新動力和能源。阿里巴巴是一間擴大

數據價值的公司，致力令平台收集到的數據，

產生更多商業價值，超越營銷用途。因此，

它不僅是一個電商平台，更重要的是把所有

平台參與者的數據記存，再為每一個提供

數據的客戶，尋找新的生意模式，透過不斷

重複運作，讓企業數據及平台數據得以積累

和結合，產生更大的商業價值，幫助每個

平台參與者得到更大的發展。

ndustry and commerce began to develop in Hong Kong in the 1960s.

In the subsequent decades, many entrepreneurs emerged who have

successfully exported well-known products to countries all around the

world, laying a strong foundation for the development of the economy. If

small and medium enterprises can master the concepts of new modes of

commerce and take advantage of the opportunities and transformations in

global trade brought by big data and e-commerce, they certainly will be

able to seize the lead in today’s intensely competitive market for foreign

trade and secure new ways for company development and succession.

Big data is like the oil of the future. It is a new resource and impetus for the

future development of businesses. Alibaba is a company that has extended

the value of big data by striving to use its platform to collect data and

produce more commercial value which goes beyond marketing uses. As a

consequence, Alibaba is not only an e-commerce platform, but also, and

more importantly, a storage centre of the data of all users of its platform.

The company then uses the data provided by each customer to find new

modes of business. Through continuously repeated operations, it

accumulates and integrates business data and platform data, producing

greater commercial value and helping each platform user achieve maximal

development.

I香

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數據是企業的未來

現今大數據對企業的影響，已經不僅

是生意形式上的一個補充。數據的影響主要

有兩方面：第一，業務數據資料化有助企業

把重要的營運經驗完整及有系統地傳承

下來，與以往只透過前人累積來傳承營運

經驗相比，數據資料化能更有效地避免在

傳承過程中可能出現的資料遺漏或訊息

斷層。現在，中小企可以透過電商平台把

產品需求、市場、交易及出貨等數據資料化，

把企業的經驗和資訊完整地保存。第二，

企業可以善用電商平台提供的大數據資訊，

重新打造結合互聯網和外貿的生意模式，

增強競爭力，為企業創造更大商業價值。

我們認為，現時大部分中小企對電商

平台的應用，仍然停留在「黃頁」形態，

只視它為新增或輔助的銷售渠道之一，

把產品和服務訊息展示到網上平台去交易。

其實，這只是電子商貿的首個階段，大多

數中小企仍未有充分運用電商平台的數據

資訊，創造更大潛在價值。

與大企業比較，中小企向來較為缺乏

資源。電商平台可為他們提供多元化數據

和服務。舉例來說，現時中小企可以透過

電商平台提供的即時後台數據資訊，了解

所有潛在買家分佈、喜好、熱門搜尋詞彙及

產品在行業裡的全球即時排名等，讓中小企

更迅速有效地調整產品、服務，以及搜尋

產品方式等，從而提高銷量。

此外，中小企亦可以透過電商平台數據

更快速及準確地尋找合適的生意合作夥伴，

又或可自由選擇和享用電商平台代為預先

議價的更優惠物流、金融及法律諮詢等等

方案，從而有效降低成本，提升競爭力。

更重要的是，電商平台可以把過程中所有

數據完整保留下來，亦等如是中小企可以

保留及累積所有數據，從而變成公司日後

非常重要的資產。

Data is the Future of Business

At present, the influence of big data on enterprises is already more than

that of a supplement to business operations. Data’s influence is mainly

twofold. Firstly, the materialisation of operational data can help an

enterprise integrate important operational experiences and become more

systematic in its personnel transitions. In the past, businesses could only rely

on departing employees to impart their accumulated knowledge to their

successors in order to pass on operational experience. Now, the

materialisation of data allows for more effective transitions that avoid

important information being left out or miscommunicated. Nowadays, small

and medium enterprises can use e-commerce platforms to materialise data

on demand, markets, transactions, and delivery, preserving an enterprise’s

complete experiences and information. Secondly, enterprises can also learn

how to use big data resources offered by e-commerce platforms to

re-configure the integration of their internet and foreign trade business

models, increasing competitiveness and creating greater commercial value.

We believe that the present use of e-commerce platforms by the

majority of small and medium enterprises remains in the “yellow pages”

stage: these platforms are only seen as one of the sales channels for

displaying information about products and services. In fact, that is only the

first stage of e-commerce. Most small and medium businesses have not yet

fully utilised the data resources of e-commerce platforms to create greater

potential value.

Small and medium enterprises have always lacked resources compared

to large-scale corporations. E-commerce platforms can offer them

diversified data services. For example, at present, small and medium

enterprises can use e-commerce platforms to access timely back-end data

resources in order to understand the demographics, affinities, and search

keywords of potential customers; they can also easily look up the global

sales rank of their products, and so on. In this way, small and medium

enterprises can effectively fine tune their products, services, and search

paths, and thus boost sales volume.

Moreover, small and medium enterprises can make use of the data

from e-commerce platforms to locate appropriate business partners more

rapidly and accurately. They can also freely choose from advantageously

priced solutions offered by the platforms for distribution, financing, and

legal counsel, thus effectively reducing costs and increasing

competitiveness. More importantly, e-commerce platforms can retain

complete data from all processes, which is to say, a small and medium

business can retain and accumulate such complete data, which can

subsequently become an extremely important asset to the company.

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總的來說，網上生意和傳統實體生意有

很多觀念上的不同，互聯網的威力亦遠遠

超出我們的想像。中小企致勝之道，在於

能否改變對電子商務的舊有觀念，在面臨

新時代挑戰時，以全新思維，把互聯網完全

融入已累積下來的商業經驗，來創造新的

生意模式。曾有人認為，香港的跨境電商

發展相對其他地區較為遲緩。然而，電商

平台亦曾有不少成功客戶個案，只要客戶能

改變營運思維，充分應用電商平台賦予的

大數據資訊，他們往往能在短短兩三年時間，

取得莫大的成果。這反映了企業營運觀念的

轉變，足以讓他們駕馭大數據年代，為企業

創造更大價值。

All in all, online business and traditional brick-and-mortar business

are different in many ways, and the power of the internet far exceeds

what we can imagine. The path to success for a small and medium

business lies in whether or not it can change its old ideas about

e-commerce. Faced with the challenges of a new era, an enterprise must

use new ideas to completely incorporate the internet into its business

experience in order to create a new business model. People sometimes

think that Hong Kong’s development of cross-border e-commerce lags

behind that of other regions. However, e-commerce platforms have had

more than a few success stories, as long as the client is willing to change

its operational philosophy and fully utilise the big data resources offered

by e-commerce platforms. If they do so, they will achieve massive results

within two or three short years. These results will reflect a transformation

in business operations ideas that will allow such enterprises to master the

big data era and create greater value for their business.

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陳致強

安聯投資亞洲首席基金投資總監

Raymond Chan Chief Investment Officer Equity Asia PacificAllianz Global Investors

2017環球經濟前瞻及對香港出口的影響Global Economic Outlook in 2017 and its Impact towards Hong Kong Exports

去12個月，投資市場動向被英國

脫歐及美國大選結果等「黑天鵝」

左右著。2017年，市場預料美國

新總統上任後將會增加保護主義措施，加上

歐洲多國將會相繼舉行大選，都為環球市場

帶來不確定性，令投資市場變得更為不明朗。

因此，各界需要以新思維去應對市場的轉變。

美國候任總統特朗普將於2017年上台，

對美國是一個轉捩點，預期他上任後會透過

借貸大興基建，積極推動經濟增長政策。

事實上，美國的借貸水平已相當高，雖然

短期內因利率偏低，仍能增加借貸，但當

完成這系列的舉措後，美國將重現通脹，

屆時美元將被蠶食，故目前市場的亢奮是

基於憧憬新總統上任會帶來更多增長，同時

亦解釋了近期美元走強的原因。然而，通脹

何時出現則要視乎新總統上任後首100天推行

的政策。

n the past 12 months, Brexit and the American presidential election

were the Black Swan events that have influenced trends in

investment markets. In 2017, the market forecast that the new US

president will increase protectionism after taking office. Moreover, many

European countries will be holding elections, bringing uncertainty to

global markets and muddying the water for investments. Therefore, all

sectors must use new ideas to respond to market transformations.

The US president-elect Donald Trump will take the oath of office in 2017,

marking a turning point for the United States. It is projected that after

taking office, he will use borrowing to finance major infrastructure

projects: an aggressive policy to stimulate economic growth. In fact,

American debt levels are already relatively high. Although short-term

interest rates are low which facilitate additional borrowing, Trump’s

planned actions will lead to a reappearance of inflation in the United States.

At that point, the dollar will decline somewhat. The recent strength of the

dollar is explained by the present market excitement due to anticipation of

increased growth when the new president takes office. The timing of the

onset of inflation, however, will depend on the policies of the new

president in his first 100 days in office.

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至於歐洲，經過了英國脫歐及美國

大選結果等事件，或會助長歐洲的右翼人士

的極端性。因此，未來12個月各國的大選

結果最受關注。日本方面，「安倍經濟

主義」未能令通脹重返百分之二的目標，

負利率政策亦無效。「安倍經濟主義」唯一

有效的，是令日本企業的現金增加，該等

企業把現金用於回購股份或增加派息，

帶動股市造好。

在 亞 洲 市 場 當 中 有 部 分 地 區 是 較

樂觀的，例如印度、印尼及菲律賓。這三個

國家會繼續推行改革，料有5%至7%的經濟

增長。相對地，歐洲及日本甚至美國則

預料沒有增長或只錄得輕微增長。

中國方面，雖然特朗普曾指控中國為

匯率操縱國，但相信他上任後只會對如鋼鐵部

分行業徵收關稅，以避免對美國經濟帶來

衝擊。不過，保護主義抬頭，勢必損害

中美雙邊貿易關係，預期中國政府在未來

1 2個月會著力保持經濟平穩，繼續密切

注 視 房 地 產 市 場 會 否 出 現 過 熱 情 況 ，

並刺激消費行業。

中國在過去10至15年期間，大幅增加

對研發的投資，現時已佔中國GDP的2%，

投放的資金已相當於歐洲國家的總和，

數目非常龐大。亞洲地區中，除中國外，

日本及南韓亦一直增加對研發的投資，

故亞洲國家仍具發展前景。現在連工廠亦

推出自家品牌，不但反映研發的概念已

愈來愈普及，且逐步邁向高科技時代。

在這個高科技時代，與高科技相關的

新興工業將受惠，例如虛擬實境技術、

藍光光碟技術及無人駕駛汽車等。事實上，

這個工業鏈正一直提升附加值，此類產品

能迎合服務業需求，具有增長潛力。根據

統計，當一個國家的人均國內生產總值達

到1萬美元，其消費能力便可達到高水平。

目前大部分亞洲國家的人均國內生產總值

(GDP)僅得數千美元水平，但隨著亞洲經濟

持續增長，預料消費力亦會隨之增加。

As for Europe, events such as Brexit and the American election

results may have strengthened right-wing politicians on the continent.

As a consequence, the various elections that will take place in the next

12 months will be worth following closely. With regard to Japan,

“Abenomics” has not succeeded in bringing inflation back to the 2%

range, and the negative interest rate policy has also had little effect. The

only effective aspect of “Abenomics” has been an increase in cash for

Japanese corporations, which have used the cash to buy back stock or

increase dividend pay-outs, buoying the stock market.

In Asian markets, there are some regions that are comparatively

optimistic, such as India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. These countries

are continuing to implement reforms and have growth forecasts in the

5%-7% range. In comparison, Europe, Japan, and even the United States

are forecast to have little or no growth.

As for China, although Trump has named China an exchange rate

manipulator, it is believed that he will only impose tariffs on certain

industries such as steel once he assumes office in order to prevent

shocks to the US economy. Nonetheless, protectionism is gaining

ground, and is certain to harm China-US trade relations. We forecast

that the Chinese government will work hard to maintain stable

economic growth over the next 12 months, continue to monitor

over-heating in the real-estate market, and stimulate consumer

industries.

In the past 10 to 15 years, China has experienced rapid growth in

R&D investment, which now stands at 2% of GDP, a massive figure

which is equivalent to the total R&D investment of all European

countries. Elsewhere in the Asian region, Japan and South Korea have

also been increasing their investment in R&D, which explain why Asian

countries still possess prospects for development. At present, there are

even factories coming out with their own brands, reflecting not only the

increasing universality of R&D concepts but also a gradual move toward

a high-tech era.

In this high-tech era, related industries will benefit, such as virtual

reality technology, Blu-ray technology, driverless cars, and so on. In fact,

the high-tech industrial chain is continuously increasing added value,

and such products can cater to service industry demands, which means

a great deal of potential growth. Statistics indicate that once a country’s

per capita income reaches USD 10,000, its consumer spending power

reaches a high level. At present, most Asian countries have a per capita

income in the range of several thousand dollars. As Asian economies

continue to grow, we can anticipate that spending power will

correspondingly increase.

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值得一提的是，過去七年中國的貸款

增速相等於GDP的2.5倍，引起海外投資者

關注，憂慮中國出現債務危機；加上房地產

市場熾熱，房價高企，因而對中國整體環境

看法悲觀。雖然中國在過去10至15年一直

倚靠出口及投資，消費基本沒有增長過，

但事實上服務行業一直在增長，至今已佔

中國GDP的50%，可見中國經濟正在轉型，

且趨勢持續。加上與旅遊相關、電子商務

以及物流業等的「新經濟」行業持續擴張，

中國經濟仍然樂觀。

香港方面，雖然出口至成熟經濟體在

過去十年基本上沒有增長，然而亞洲的區內

貿易卻一直增長。香港由漁村起家，隨後

發展輕工業，再逐步發展地產業及金融業，

每個時代都有很大的改變。現時香港在

「高樓價、高地價」的情況之下，仍未找到

新出路去發展新產業。以金融業為例，

在1990至2000年代，全球金融業基本已到達

頂峰。但自近年金融業加強監管，令業界

經營變得較以前困難。至於香港的出口表現，

雖然出入口在香港本地生產總值（GDP）

的佔有比率於過去十年一直下降，但至今

所佔比例仍有近20%，反映出入口仍然重要。

然而，香港出口過去兩年均錄得跌幅，可見

出口商仍面對很大的困難。

統計數據顯示，全球出口總值出現下降

趨勢，按量計則持平，反映出口基本沒有

增長，按價值計錄得下跌則反映了通縮。

不過，在未來12至24個月，相信全球開始

出現通脹，因為中國的PPI（工業生產者出廠

價格指數）已由負數轉為正數，加上預期

美國出現溫和通脹，對全世界經濟屬正面。

It is worth mentioning that in China, debt has grown 2.5 times as fast

as GDP over the past seven years. This trend has drawn the attention of

foreign investors, who are anxious about the possibility of a debt crisis in

China. Moreover, the scorching hot real estate market has led to high

housing prices. Consequently, the overall investment environment in China

is perceived pessimistically by some. Over the past 10 to 15 years, China has

relied on exports and investment, with very little growth in consumption.

However, the service industry has continuously expanded and now

represents 50% of China’s GDP. Evidently, the Chinese economy is in the

midst of transition. If the trend continues, there will be plenty of cause for

optimism in the Chinese economy, especially in the “new economy”

sectors such as the tourism industry, e-commerce, and logistics.

As for Hong Kong, exports to mature economies have basically

remained flat in the past decade, but trade within the Asian region has

continuously grown. Hong Kong started out as a fishing village and

subsequently developed light industry. After that, the territory gradually

developed real estate and finance industries. Major transformations have

characterized each of these eras. At present, Hong Kong is in a state of

“high property prices and high land price”, a situation that makes it hard to

find ways to grow new industries. The finance industry is one example: the

global finance industry already reached its peak in the 1990s and 2000s. In

recent years, oversight and regulation of the finance sector has increased,

making things more complicated for the industry. Import-export has also

steadily declined as a share of Hong Kong’s GDP over the past ten years, but

still stands close to 20%, reflecting that it remains an important sector of the

economy. However, the recorded declines have been more significant over

the past two years. Evidently, exporters are still facing major challenges.

Statistics indicate a downward trend in global exports. Trade

volumes have flattened out, reflecting little-to-no growth in exports.

Trade value statistics have declined, reflecting deflation. Nonetheless, in

the coming 12 to 24 months, we believe that the global economy will

begin to experience inflation. China’s PPI (Producer Price Index) has

already moved from the red into the black, and additionally, mild inflation

is forecast in the United States, which will ultimately lead to a positive

effect on the global economy.

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溫灼培

恒生投資服務有限公司首席分析員

Mark Wan Chief Analyst Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

外匯市場展望Foreign Exchange Outlook

年特朗普將出任美國總統，全球或

將要迎接超強美元局面。相對地，

其他主要貨幣匯價，包括英鎊難免

下跌，而人民幣將持續在低位徘徊。

美元表現還看議息結果

在總統大選前，美匯指數及美元匯價

經已升上1 3年來的高位。特朗普的競選

政綱，主張透過基建及減稅來推動美國

經濟，並曾多次表明美國聯邦儲備局(聯儲局)

主席耶倫處事作風過於謹慎，加息步伐過慢。

因此，市場普遍認為特朗普上任後，加息

步伐將會明顯增快。最近，美元債息以驚人

幅度上升，債息升幅亦令市場憧憬美元匯價

將會急速上揚，美元將有機會進入「超強」

匯價年代。

全球通脹上升亦令美國加息升溫，

2016年9月份數據顯示，美國通脹率為1.5%，

比對上月的1.1%，突然大幅擧升0.4%；歐洲

通脹率由0.2%增至0.4%，雖仍處於低水平，

但已是雙倍升幅；中國內地通脹率亦由

1.3%升至1.9%；除日本外，其他國家的通脹

亦普遍上升。再看10月份數據，亦同樣顯示

通脹進一步向上。當然，我們仍需參考未

來數據，以確定全球通脹是否真正來臨。

在通脹的情況下，加息勢在必行。

onald Trump will be inaugurated as President of the United States

in 2017. The world may enter a strong dollar era. Relatively,

other major currencies including the pound will likely be under

pressure with the Renminbi (RMB) continues to stay low.

US Dollar Trend Depends onFed’s Interest Rate Decision

The US Dollar Index and the US dollar both reached a 13-year high

in the run-up to the presidential election. During the election campaign,

Donald Trump pledged to stimulate the economy by boosting

infrastructure spending and cutting taxes. He also accused Federal

Reserve (Fed) Chairwoman Janet Yellen of being too conservative and too

slow to act in raising interest rates. As a result, the market is now pricing

in a rate hike, evident by the rapid increase in US Treasury bond yields in

the weeks following the election. This is expected to have a knock-on

effect on the dollar, with market analysts bullish about the prospects for

further dollar strength.

Rising global inflation has also bolstered expectations of a US rate

hike. In September 2016, US inflation hit 1.5%, up from 1.1% in the

previous month. The Eurozone has also witnessed higher inflation – albeit

from a lower starting point – with the headline rate doubling to 0.4%

from 0.2%. In China, inflation rose from 1.3% in August to 1.9% in

September, a pattern which is repeated across all major economies except

Japan. Figures from October have further confirmed the trend. Of course,

it remains to be seen whether global inflation has actually come even

though interest rate hike is almost certain under an inflation environment.

D明

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綜觀環球，歐洲仍在研究延長量化寬鬆

政策，沒有能力加息；日本沒有通脹，因而

無需加息；中國內地經濟表現一般，並無

加息的理由。由此可見，美國是最有機會

加息的國家。

至於美元「超強」匯價的年代會否

來臨，取決於聯儲局會否於12月14日會議中

通過加息。市場預期，聯儲局有超過90%

機會在 1 2月議息會議加息 *。在聯儲局

會議前，歐洲將要面臨意大利修憲公投及

歐洲央行議息會議，這對歐洲政局穩定

均構成影響，歐元匯率亦很大機會下跌。

如在這情況下，美國仍然加息的話，意味

着美國政府及聯儲局將要推行一個新的

貨幣政策，而這貨幣政策是容許美元繼續

上升的。

過去兩年，美元曾多次上試美匯指數

100點位置，但礙於美國政府與聯儲局連番

阻撓，所以未能成功。2015年初，美匯指數

曾有望升至100點，但聯儲局遲遲不肯加息，

美匯指數隨後下調。2016年2月，美國政府在

二十國集團大會發表聲明，呼籲各國不要

爭相貶值貨幣。由於美元與各國貨幣匯價是

相對的，當各國貨幣匯價上揚時，美元自然

會貶值。聲明過後，市場隨即意識到美國

政府不希望美元上升。期後，美匯指數一直

回落，直至近期特朗普當選總統後才升至

100點。由此可知，若現時美匯指數經已超過

100點，加上歐洲的不穩定因素，聯儲局仍然

通過在12月加息的話，這表示美國政府及

聯儲局將改變其貨幣政策，容許美元上升，

屆時相信美元將會再創新高。

至於美元升幅，則取決於特朗普上任後

實施的經濟政策。他曾表示會大幅把企業

利得稅由35%降至15%。同時，還要看他會否

落實基建項目，以及基建項目的規模，這都是

未來美元升幅的關鍵因素。

The US remains as a country with high possibility of interest rate hike.

Elsewhere, interest rates look set to remain unchanged. The European

Central Bank is considering an extension to its QE programme, making a

rate hike out of the question, while Japan’s lack of inflation means that

there is no need for a change in monetary policy. China’s mediocre

economic performance makes a rate hike there seem very unlikely.

The possibility of a strong dollar era would depend on whether

Federal Reserve officials decide to increase rates at their meeting on

14 December; according to market analysts, the odds of a rate hike are

now higher than 90%*. Events in the Eurozone – including the Italian

referendum on constitutional reform and the ECB’s upcoming interest

rate decision – are likely to result in further Euro weakness and have a

detrimental impact on political stability. If, as expected, the Fed decides

to hike rates at its upcoming meeting, implying the US government and

the Fed have to implement a new monetary policy under which upward

trend of the dollar will be allowed.

Over the last two years, the US Dollar Index has made several

attempts to break through the 100 level, although its progress has been

hindered by policymakers in the US government and the Federal

Reserve. Expectations that the Dollar Index would surpass 100 in early

2015 came to an end following the Fed’s reluctance to hike rates. At the

G20 summit in February 2016, the US government warned countries

against engaging in beggar-thy-neighbour currency devaluations –

showing its concern about dollar appreciation. After the statement, the

market immediately realised that the US government does not want the

dollar to rise. The Dollar Index subsequently fell and did not hit 100 until

after Trump’s victory in the presidential election. Having considered that

the current Dollar Index has already exceeded 100 and the ongoing

instability in the Eurozone, any decision to raise rates in December

would signify a change in the Fed’s monetary policy and demonstrate

tolerance towards a stronger dollar which may lead to another record

high of the dollar.

The future direction of the dollar also depends on Trump’s

economic policies. He has pledged to slash corporate tax rate from 35%

to 15% and embark on a large infrastructure spending programme,

both of which would drive up the dollar.

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英鎊前景看淡

英國在公投後，英鎊理應下跌，而英國

未來經濟亦將會備受考驗。然而，至今仍有

許多人心存幻想，認為英國最後或會留在

歐盟，這想法其實很不設實際。歐盟不斷

向 東 面 擴 張 ， 並 表 示 會 在 未 來 數 年 把

阿 爾巴尼亞及土耳其納入成為歐盟成員國。

英國選擇脫歐是有充分理據的，作為發達

國家，英國人意識到，如仍留在歐盟的話，

未來將必須接收大量歐盟成員國內落後國家

的移民。所以即使再來一次公投，英國仍然

會選擇脫歐。雖然最近英國高等法院裁決

表示英國脫歐，必須得到英國國會通過才能

啟動，但英國奉行民主制度，相信最終仍會

遵從民意，脫歐勢在必行。

由於英國最近經濟數據不俗，從而令到

許多人產生錯覺，認為現時英國的經濟不差，

但其實這只是個假象，脫歐對英國的負面影響

將會慢慢浮現。原因很簡單，假設大家原本

已在英國設有廠房，並將貨品外銷至歐盟，

在6月底得悉英國將要脫歐，大家無可避免地

要考慮把廠房遷往其他歐盟成員國。人同

此心，資金將會逐漸遠離英國。然而，搬遷

廠房或總部至少需時一至兩年。因此，新資金

現時已停止流入英國，但本土現有資金則

仍未撤離。此外，英國為保持出口競爭力，

英鎊兌歐元勢將繼續下跌，英鎊兌美金亦會

更見下挫，所以英鎊前景是不被看好的。

人民幣低位徘徊

近期，人民幣匯價急速下跌，這跟美元

走強有莫大關係。當美元轉強，其他貨幣

便會相應下跌，人民幣亦然。由於市場預期

未來美元將會繼續走強，因此相信人民幣亦

會持續在低位徘徊。

Weak Outlook for the Pound

The pound has dropped significantly as a result of the UK’s

decision to leave the European Union, an event which is likely to

present a number of challenges for the British economy. Many

people are still under the illusion that Brexit will not happen, which

is unrealistic. The EU is continuing to expand eastwards, with Albania

and Turkey both potential candidates for future membership.

Continued expansion was a major contributing factor to the

referendum result – British people were afraid that large numbers of

migrants would move to the UK from less-developed members of the

EU. Even if the British government were to stage another

referendum, polls showed that the result would be the same.

Although a recent High Court ruling means that the government will

have to seek approval from members of parliament before triggering

formal Brexit negotiations, politicians are unlikely to frustrate the

wishes of the electorate.

Since the referendum, statistics have painted a positive picture of

the British economy. However, these figures have given many people a

false impression, as the consequences of Brexit are likely to unfold over

the longer term. For example, after the referendum in June, companies

that export to the EU inevitably would start to consider relocating their

manufacturing facilities to other member states. Capital outflows from

the UK are expected. As the process of relocation will take several

years, capital outflows are likely to remain muted in the short term. In

order to keep British exports competitive, the pound is likely to drop

further against the Euro, with even bigger declines forecast against the

dollar. Thus, outlook of the pound is unpromising.

RMB under Pressure

The RMB has dropped significantly in recent months. This is largely

due to the continued strength of the dollar, which has also appreciated

against other currencies. Market remains bullish about the dollar, and

the RMB is likely to remain under considerable pressure.

註 Note :美國聯邦儲備局公開市場委員會於2016年12月14日決定上調基準利率0.25%，是2015年12月以來首度加息，並暗示2017年將會加息三次。The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee announced a 0.25% increase in the benchmarkinterest rate on 14 December 2016, the first such increase since December 2015. Policymakers also hinted at three rate hikes in 2017.

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馮敬德

羅夏信律師事務所合夥人

King Tak FungPartner of Stephenson Harwood

謹慎管理全球供應鏈中的物流及網騙風險Managing Logistics and Email Fraud Risks in Global Supply Chains

球第七大航運商南韓韓進海運於

2016年8月底申請破產保護，事件

衝擊全球海運業。韓進事件反映了

出口業每天所面對的風險，特別是「國際

貿易術語」（International Commercial Terms，

簡稱 Incoterms）的使用，足以帶來深遠的

影響，值得買賣雙方小心審視。

賣方很多時候專注業務發展，從而忽略了

潛在的風險。韓進事件帶出了一般企業在

買賣合約、信用保險合約及海運貨物保險

合約所發生的問題，展示了正確及不正確

使用 Incoterms所產生的不同的效果，直接

影響賣方的收款權益。

he collapse of Hanjin Shipping, the world's seventh largest

container carrier, has sent shockwaves through the global

shipping industry since it filed for bankruptcy in end August

2016. The demise of the South Korean shipping giant demonstrates the

risks that are inherent in the trading industry and the importance of

using International Commercial Terms (’Incoterms’) correctly by sellers

and buyers.

Sellers tend to neglect potential risk factors in their quest to grow

business. The Hanjin case illustrates the risks faced by sellers when

entering into purchase and sales agreements, credit insurance contracts

and marine cargo insurance policies. It also reveals the importance of

correctly using Incoterms and how its misuse can lead to a stark contrast

in the seller’s available recourse to seek payment from the buyer.

T全

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正確使用國際貿易術語

減低物流風險

Incoterms共有11款，分E、F、C及D四組。

首先，貨物出廠後等待運輸公司收貨，即是

工廠交貨條件（EXW）（Ex Works）。當貨物

運抵船上後將風險從賣方轉移至買方的是輸出

港船上交貨條件（FOB）（Free On Board），

而買方要求賣方提供運輸及包括運費的是成本

加運費條件（CFR）（Cost and Freight）；

有些買方更要求賣方代買保險，那種是成本、

保險費加運費條件（CIF）（Cost, Insurance

and Freight）。

無論是 FOB、CFR還是CIF，其實均要

貨物運抵貨船上，有關貨損風險才會從賣方

轉移至買方。換言之，若貨物在貨櫃場等待

貨船到達之前因任何原因而損毀，賣方便要

對有關損失承擔所有責任。正如是次韓進

事件，若因收貨船隻延遲進入輸出港裝貨而

貨物在港口滯留期間損毀，即使買方已購買

保險亦因沒有可保利益而無法索賠。

因此，若賣方使用貨櫃運送方式，則宜

採用貨交承運人條件（FCA）（Free Carrier）

而非FOB。若採用FCA，當貨櫃送到貨櫃場，

承運人收貨的一刻起，貨物的損毀風險便立即

轉移到買方身上，並受買方的保單所保障。

假如貨物在裝載到貨船甲板前受損，買方可按

海運貨物保單索賠。事實上，國際商會在

最新的版本《Incoterms 2010》對FOB、CFR及

CIF的解釋中，已特別注明若賣方使用貨櫃，

不宜再採用FOB、CFR或CIF，而建議採用FCA、

CPT或CIP，因後者對貨運的保障更大，亦沒有

額外成本。

E、F及C組共有八款 Incoterms，是裝運

合同（Shipment contracts），即當賣方付運後，

風險已轉移至買方，即使貨物在發貨後因任何

原因未能送到買方手上，買方仍有責任付款。

至於 D組 Incoterms的到達合同（ Arr iva l

contracts），即當貨物運抵協議目的地時，

賣方才完成其付運責任，包括完稅後交貨

（DDP）（Delivered Duty Paid）、目的地交貨

（DAP）（Delivered At Place）及終點站交貨

（DAT）（Delivered At Terminal）。

Proper Use of Incoterms toMinimise Logistics Risks

There are 11 different Incoterms which are divided into four

groups (E, F, C and D). First of all, under the term EXW ('Ex works'),

risk is transferred to the buyer when the seller has made the goods

available to the buyer at the seller's premises. Other terms include FOB

('Free on Board'), under which risk passes from the seller to the buyer

when the goods are loaded onto the ship; CFR ('Cost and Freight'),

under which the seller arranges and pays for the carriage of the goods

up to the port of destination; and CIF ('Cost, Insurance & Freight')

with the additional requirement that the seller must cover insurance

for the goods.

Under FOB, CFR and CIF terms, the risk of damage to goods does not

pass to the buyer from the seller until the goods are loaded onto the vessel.

In other words, the seller is liable for damage to the goods arising by

whatever reason while they are in storage or transit before being loaded

onto the ship. As with the Hanjin case, even if the buyer had purchased

insurance, the buyer would not be able to make a claim due to lack of

insurable interest if the goods were damaged while stranded in port due to

the delay in the arrival of the loading ship at the port of loading.

Therefore, for container shipments, it is advisable for sellers to

adopt FCA ('Free Carrier') terms. When FCA terms are adopted, risk of

damage to the goods will pass to the buyer when the container is

delivered to the container terminal, and will be insurable under the

buyer’s insurance policy. In the event that goods are damaged before

being loaded onto the deck of the ship, the buyer can submit a claim

under their marine cargo insurance. In fact, when the latest version of

the Incoterms was published in 2010, the International Chamber of

Commerce in its explanation of FOB, CFR and CIF terms advised that it

would be more appropriate to adopt FCA, CPT and CIP instead of FOB,

CFR and CIF for container shipments as they offer more freight

insurance coverage at no additional costs.

There are 8 Incoterms in the E, F and C groups, being Shipment

contracts, in which the buyer assumes subsequent risks once shipments

are effected pursuant to the relevant Incoterms. The buyer is obliged to

pay the seller even if the goods are not received by the buyer after

delivery for whatever reason. As for Arrival contracts adopting group D

Incoterms, the seller only discharges its delivery obligations when the

goods are delivered to the agreed destination. These terms include DDP

('Delivered Duty Paid'), DAP ('Delivered at Place') and DAT ('Delivered

at Terminal').

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合同種類條款不容忽視

針對韓進事件，由於船上貨物無法如期

運抵目的地，若採用裝運合同，即E、F及C組

Incoterms，風險在發貨時已轉移至買方，

故買方有責任付款。相反，若採用到達合同，

即D組Incoterms，由於賣方仍未完成合同中

的付貨責任，買方無需付款。

航運公司倒閉，一般不是出口信用保險

的承保範圍。至於賣方能否按海運貨物

保單對因從第三港轉運至目的港而增加的

運輸費用索賠，需視乎所購買的保單屬

哪一版本。1982年版本列明不會為承運人

倒閉或資不抵債而引致的損失作出賠償，

但2009年版本的保單則有可能賠償，但仍

視乎賣方所持的提單是否由韓進出具。

因此，賣方應了解自己所購買的保單是

哪個版本及保障範圍。

防患未然 提防網騙

除了物流風險，賣方亦應留意網騙風險。

近年接獲不少個案關於電郵戶口被黑客入侵，

騙徒利用竊取的資料通知買方更改賣方公司

匯款戶口，從而騙取貨款。

如按買賣合約中的Incoterms，賣方發貨後

買方必須付款，若買方不幸或大意被騙，

均與賣方無關，除非買方能證明是因賣方疏忽

而直接導致買方被騙或賣方與騙徒合謀行騙，

否則買方有責任再次支付貨款給賣方。要降低

這類詐騙風險，就必須防患於未然。

賣方可向所有客戶發出通知，說明由於

網上欺詐愈趨嚴重，若買方收到任何更改賣方

銀行戶口的通知，必須查明該郵件是否由賣方

發出；賣方亦絕對不會叫買方將款項匯予

第三者。買方若有懷疑，必須向賣方確認。

若發出此類通知之後，買方仍然被騙，買方

便很難藉詞拒付。賣方亦可在買賣合同中加入

條款，規定日後必須直接付款給賣方的指定

匯款銀行，不可匯款予第三者。將來若有任何

更改，賣方會有專人通知，買方亦有責任致電

確認。這樣，騙徒便難有機可乘。

Pay Attention to Contract Terms and Conditions

In respect of the Hanjin case, in a sales contract which adopts group E,

F or C Incoterms, even if the goods did not arrive at the port of destination

as scheduled, the risk was transferred to the buyer once the goods were

shipped. Accordingly, the buyer would be liable to pay the seller under the

sales contract. In contrast, in an Arrival contract which adopts group D

Incoterms, as the seller has not fulfilled its delivery obligations under the

sales contract, the buyer would not be required to pay the seller.

The bankruptcy of a carrier is not normally within the coverage of

export credit insurance. Whether a seller can claim the increase in freight

for the reshipment of goods from a third port to the port of destination

under a marine cargo insurance depends on which version of the Institute

Marine Cargo Clauses is used. The 1982 version specifically excludes losses

arising from the insolvency or financial default of the carrier, whereas

there is a possibility the losses could be recovered under the 2009 version,

depending on whether the bill of lading held by the seller was issued by

Hanjin. Sellers are advised to be mindful of the version of the insurance

which has been purchased and the corresponding insurance coverage.

Beware of Online Fraud

In addition to logistics risks, sellers should also be aware of online

fraud. In recent years, there has been a notable increase in email hacking,

where fraudsters use hacked information to inform the buyer that the

seller's account details have changed and then make off with the proceeds.

In the event that the buyer becomes a victim of such fraud, the buyer

is still required to pay the seller, unless the buyer can prove that the seller

is a party to the fraud, or that any losses were caused by the seller's

negligence. To minimize the risk of such fraud, certain precautionary

measures should be taken.

One such precaution would be for the seller to inform all its customers

that in light of the growing risk of online fraud, customers should seek

verification if they receive any email stating that the seller's account details

have changed. Sellers should also make it clear to customers that payments

should never be made to third parties and when in doubt, the customer

must contact the seller for verification. Written communications such as

these ensure that the buyer has no excuse to refuse payment in the event of

fraud. Sellers may also stipulate their bank details in the sale and purchase

contract and state that payments must not be made to third parties. The

contract should also state that the seller would inform the buyer by a

designated officer in the event of any changes to their bank details, and that

the buyer is obliged to confirm the authenticity of such notice with the seller

by phone as well. This may substantially reduce the fraud risk.

23 Winter 2016Compass

信保

局研

討會

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IC S

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