© Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies ETIS+ Workshop; June, 23 rd 2010, Brussels Dr. Michael Krail, Fraunhofer-ISI ASTRA – Assessment

© Fraunhofer ISI

ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies

ETIS+ Workshop; June, 23rd 2010, Brussels

Dr. Michael Krail, Fraunhofer-ISI


Car_Fleet_CCESPurchase_Cars_CC_ES Car_Scrappage_CC_ES

Registration_New_CarsTotal

Minimum_Replacement_Cars+

Car_Fleet_Total

+

+

Car_Scrappage_Total

+

+

Delta_Income_per_AdultDelta_PopulationDelta_Variable_Costs

- ++

New_Cars_CC+

Share_New_Cars_CC

New_Cars_CC_ES

+

+

Diffusion_New_ES

+

Car_Ownership

+

-

Consumption_for_New_Cars

Car_Scrappage_Ratio

+

+

Car_Prices_CC_ES

+

Input MAC_con

Input ENV_car

Output POP

Output MAC_con

Delta_Car_Prices-

Output POLES

+

Delta_Population_Density

+

Technology Share

Seite 2 © Fraunhofer ISI


Overview on ASTRA: key parameters

ASTRA is an integrated assessment model based on System Dynamics and implemented with Vensim

ASTRA consists of a system of integrated models each with different purpose

Spatial coverage: EU27 plus Norway and Switzerland, trade with 12 world regions

Time horizon: 1990 – 2050 (calibration period 1990 – 2003/2006) Original purpose of ASTRA (1997): strategic assessment of EU

transport policies. "Strategic" meant long-term and integrated



Overview on ASTRA: structure

POP = Population Module

MAC = Macroeconomics Module

REM = Regional Economics Module

FOT = Foreign Trade Module

TRA = Transport Module

VFT = Vehicle Fleet Module

ENV = Environment Module

WEM = Welfare Measurement Module

INF = Infrastructure Module

Abbreviations for 9 Modules:

Key features:

Integrated models

System Dynamics (Vensim)

27 EU countries (+ NO, CH)

76 zones

25 economic sectors

>20000 OD flows (P, F)

8 modes (P+F)

800 MB of output data

Time horizon 2050

POP

MAC

FOT

REM

TRA

WEM

ENV

VFT

Potential Labour Force Population Structure

Dis

posa

ble

Inco

me

Con

sum

ptio

n, I

nves

tmen

t in

Veh

icle

s, V

AT

GDP, (Un -)Employment, Sectoral Output

Population Change

VK

T

Goods-Flows-

Car

Fle

et

Fuel Price

GDP, Productivity

Exports, Imports

Transport Expenditure, Performance, Time

Fuel Tax Revenue, VAT

GDP, Employment, ....

Fue

l

Pri

ce

Emissions, Noise,Accidents

Transport Cost, Time

Transport Demand

Generalized Cost

Fleet Structure

INF

Investment

TRA Flows

TRA Time

TRA Time



Overview on ASTRA: transport modes and vehicle fleets

Passenger modes: slow, car, bus, rail, air Freight modes: truck (LDV, HDV), rail, ship Road fleet models with 1-year age cohorts Car fleet: gasoline (<1.4l, 1.4-2.0l, >2.0l), diesel (<2.0l, >2.0l), CNG,

LPG, hybrid (1st generation), bioethanol, electric, hydrogen fuel cell, up to 9 emission standards

Heavy duty vehicle fleet: <12ton gross vehicle weight, >12ton, up to 8 emission standards

Light duty vehicle fleet: gasoline, diesel, up to 8 emission standards Train, ship, air: technical characteristics by trip purpose Driving situations: passenger: 5, freight: 4



ASTRA applications

Transport policy assessment: pricing, taxation, TEN infrastructure, emissions and efficiency standards, Cost-benefit-analysis of transport projects (ASTRA, TIPMAC, IASON, DESIRE, REVENUE, ASSESS)

Technology and scenario analysis: technology and employment policy, hydrogen technology strategy, integrated energy and transport scenarios, energy and transport policy (IPTS-Employment Study, STEPs, TRIAS, MATISSE, HOP!, iTREN-2030, GHG-TransPoRD)

Renewables policy assessment: subsidies, feed-in tarifs, investment strategies (PROGRESS, Employ-RES, Employ-RES-D)

Climate policy assessment: transport policy, EU-ETS, energy scenarios, investment strategies, cost implications (ASTRA, ADAM, Policy scenarios for climate protection IV and V, IKEP-Makro)



Advantages and drawbacks of ASTRA

Advantages Integrated analysis considering feedbacks and rebound effects Flexibility of policy implementation (stepwise, varying intensity,

packaging, variety of measures) Time is explicitely modelled (points of time and delays matter!) Long-term time horizon (2050) Not grounded on mainstream economic theory (no equilibrium

modeling)

Drawbacks So far, level of detail not sufficient for regional analysis below country

level Increase of model size due to increase of integrated purposes handled

by ASTRA



Input parameters and references

Input parameters Calibration data or trends to which parts of model are adapted (e.g.

population) Exogenous parameters: (labour productivity), (consumption split),

energy prices, (emission factors)

References EUROSTAT online database (various themes) OECD and COMEXT trade statistics EC Energy and Transport in Figures and related sources Network model data on transport (e.g. SCENES, VACLAV,

TRANSTOOLS) Swiss/German handbook on emission factors, MEET project, COPERT

for speed adaptations

Specific questions



ASTRA: history, milestones and projects

1997 Start of model development, 2000 completed 2001 Structural adaptation to 15 countries, 25 sectors 2003 Extension to 29 countries 2005-2007 Inclusion of renewable energy models, consolidation

and linkage with energy models 2007-2010 Linkage with bottom-up models for climate policy

assessment, economic assessment of impacts of high oil prices, employment impact of renewable energy policy

Projects: ASTRA, IPTS-Employment Study, ASTRA-Italy, DESIRE, TIPMAC, IASON, SAT, LOTSE, REVENUE, STEPs, TRANS- TOOLS, TRIAS, Renewable Energies, MATISSE, ADAM, Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection , HOP!, KlimInvest, iTREN- 2030, EMPLOY-RES, IKEP-Makro, GHG-TransPoRD



iTREN-2030: Impacts of Economic Crisis on transport (Integrated Scenario)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

[bill

ion

pkm

]Motorised passenger surface transport demand INT vs REF

Diff to REF

Train

Bus

Car

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

[Bio

tkm

]

Domestic freight tkm by mode in EU27

IWW

Ship

Train

Truck

Van



iTREN-2030: car technology diffusion

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

[Mill

ion

Veh

icle

s]EU27 car fleet by technology

Hydrogen

Bioethanol

Electric

Hybrid

LPG

CNG

Diesel

Gasoline



Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection IV: Contribution to CO2 reductions by single transport measures

CO2-savings by measures of Climate Policy scenario [Mt CO2]

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Introduction kerosene tax(30.2 ct/l)

Air transport in EU-ETS

Extension HGV km-charge

CO2 differentiated circulationtax

Low resistance types /lubricants

Increase of biofuel quotas

Doubling of HGV user costs

Diesel tax raised to gasolinetax (65.4 ct/l)

Mandatory CO2 emissionlimits cars (2012: 130 g/km)

Abolishment commutingsubsidyExample

application



Further information on recent ASTRA results

Policy scenarios for climate protection IV: completed March 2007, also reporting to UNFFCC (German report for download at German EPA, only summary in English: www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/3361.pdf)

TRIAS: www.isi.fraunhofer.de/TRIAS HOP: www.hop-project.eu iTREN-2030: www.isi.fraunhofer.de/projects/iTREN-2030


ASTRA – Assessment of Transport StrategiesASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies

Dr. Michael KrailFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation

ResearchKarlsruhe, Germany

Email: [email protected].: +49 – (0)721 6089 429

Thank you for your attention!



ASTRA model:Overview of spatial representation

At maxiumum four functional zones per country classified by settlement density:

Metropolitan zoneHigh density zoneMedium density zoneLow density zone

At maxiumum four functional zones per country classified by settlement density:

Metropolitan zoneHigh density zoneMedium density zoneLow density zone

Spatial disaggregation for EU29 countries:

14 EU15 countries (B+L) each with 4 functional zones12 new EU member states plus Swi +

Norwith 1-2 functional zones

Spatial disaggregation for EU29 countries:

14 EU15 countries (B+L) each with 4 functional zones12 new EU member states plus Swi +

Norwith 1-2 functional zones



Passenger transport model

Seite 15

ASTRA socio-economic framework

Population

EmploymentTransportgeneration

Transportdistribution

Car fleet bycar typesIncome

Generalizedcost O/D

Generalizedcost modes

Modal-split

GDPInfrastructureCapacity

Travel time

Transport demand

Occupancyrates

InfrastructureInvestment

Passenger transport model



Freight transport model

Seite 16


Sectoral output

Trade flows

National transportgeneration

Transportdistribution

Generalizedcost O/D

Generalizedcost modes

Modal-split

GDPInfrastructureCapacity

Travel time

Transport demand

Load factors

InfrastructureInvestment

Freight transport modelValue-to-volume ratios



Car fleet and car choice model

Seite 17


IncomeScrappedcars

Existing car fleetby age, by technology,by emission stand.

Ageing ofcar fleetGDP

Filling stationnetwork

Purchase ofnew cars

Car pricesInfrastructureInvestment

Car fleet and car choice model

Fuel price

Car taxesChoice ofnew cars

Policy andnew technologies

Population Car-ownership



ASTRA structure of economic modules

18

GDP Supply Side

Final Demand(by sector)

GDP Demand Side

GDP> <

Investment

Consumption

Trade Balance

Gov. consum.Import

Export

Potential Output(national)

Capital Stock

TFP

Labour Supply

(Resource Inp.)

Employment

Population

Private Cap.

Public Cap.

Income

Net national product

Depreciation

Subsidies

Indirect taxes National income

Disposable income

Fuel taxes

Other taxes

Value-added tax

Transfers

Direct taxes

Social contrib.



PSz-IV: Climate Policy scenario described by list of planned policy measures

• Complete abolishment of commuting subsidy (tax exemption)• Equal taxation of gasoline and diesel fuel i.e. increase of diesel fuel

tax• Strengthening of voluntary agreement with ACEA to reach in 2012:

130 g CO2 /km and in 2030: 100 g CO2 /km of average fleet in Germany

• Inclusion of air transport in EU-ETS gradually but fully until 2013• Introduction of kerosene tax in 2013 (30.2 ct/l)• Extension of HGV charge on total long distance road network• Doubling of HGV user cost until 2015• 100% market penetration of low rolling resistance tyres and highly

fluid oils• Increase of mandatory biofuel quotas: 2020: 12.5 % 2030: 25%

Documents

© Fraunhofer ISI ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies ETIS+ Workshop; June, 23 rd 2010, Brussels Dr. Michael Krail, Fraunhofer-ISI ASTRA – Assessment