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© Fraunhofer ISI
Economic Impacts of Non-Technical Measures for Emisison Reduct ion in TransportT h e P E P W o r k s h o p , 2 7 . 9 . 2 0 1 3 , A l m a t y
C l a u s D o l l , F r a u n h o f e r I S I , G e r m a n y
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 2
Clean a i r in c i t ies through c lean cars
More efficient motors and new propulsion technology
90% reduction of most pollutants in road transport since 1990
50% reduction in road fatalities
0
50
100
150
200
250
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Inde
x 1
991
= 1
00
Gesamtemissionen in Deutschland gegenüber 1990
Kohlendioxid (CO2)
Lachgas (N20)
Methan (CH4)
Org. Verbindungen (VOC)
Staub und Ruß (PM)
Stickstoffoxide (NOx)
Schwefeldioxid (SO2)
Kohlenmonoxid (CO)
Ammoniak (NH3)
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 3
Background: Past and Future of Road Transpor t ‘s Env i ronmenta l Effec ts
... but more cars lead to
Congestion and a huge waste of time
Rising CO2 emissions together with increasing damage per ton of CO2
More accidents, particularly with vulnerable road users
More noise pollution with serious health implications Valuation of CO2 emissions
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 4
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
Car Bus / Coach MC LDV HDV Rail Pass. Rail Freight Air Pass. IWW
Million EUR
per year Up- & Downstream (diff erence low/ high scenario)
Climate Change (diff erence low/ high scenario)
Up- & Downstream Processes (low scenario)
Climate Change (low scenario)
Other Cost Categories
Noise
Air Pollution
Accidents
©INFRAS/ CE/ ISI
314.000
19.00029.000
48.000
66.000
6.000 4.000
27.000
2.000
Tota l ex ternal costs of t ranspor t in Europe 2008: 515 bn. € or 1000 € per inhabi tant
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 5
Seite 5
Est imates of average delay costs in European count r ies
Ranges of average delay costs 2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
UK NL LU NO DE DK IE BE SE ES IT GR PT CH FI FR CZ AT PL SI HU EE LT LV BG RO SK
Ave
rage
del
ay c
osts
(€/
1,00
0 vk
m)
Maximum (Trans-Tools results)
Minimum (regression over national studies)
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 6
Decades of fos ter ing car f ree t rave l in European c i t ies - no measurable effect
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-6 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 10
Num
ber o
f citi
es o
ut o
f all
obse
rvati
ons
wit
h m
ulti
yea
r da
ta (n
= 1
66 /
350
)
Percenatage points of modal share
Histogram of annual changes in the percentage of car use for commuting trips
Data source: Eurostat _Urban Audit Database, accessed 15.7.2013
Vitoria/Gasteiz, Spain. 0.8% 2001 to 74% 2008
Copenhagen,Denmark. 42% 1996 to 26'% 2005
Bilbao, Spain. 75% 2005 to 56% 2008
Data source:Eurostat Urban Audit Database
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-6 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 10
Num
ber o
f citi
es o
ut o
f all
obse
rvati
ons
wit
h m
ulti
yea
r da
ta (n
= 1
66 /
350
)
Percenatage points of modal share
Histogram of annual changes in the percentage of car use for commuting trips
Data source: Eurostat _Urban Audit Database, accessed 15.7.2013
Vitoria/Gasteiz, Spain. 0.8% 2001 to 74% 2008
Copenhagen,Denmark. 42% 1996 to 26'% 2005
Bilbao, Spain. 75% 2005 to 56% 2008
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 7
The Study „Economic Aspects of Non-Technical Measures for Emission Reduction in Transport“
Core research questions:
Does low emission and sustainable mobility pay off for the user?
Which consequences do sustainable mobility patterns have for society?
By which instruments can we achieve the ecological reconstruction of curent
mobility systems?
Client: German Federal Environment Agency (UBA)
Projektteam: Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe (lead)INFRAS, ZürichIFEU, Heidelberg
Laufzeit: Nov. 2009 – Oct. 2012
Internet: www.ntm.isi-projekt.de
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 8
The case s tud ies: f ive measures for reduc ing emiss ions in t ranspor t
Measure1: 10 %-pointsmore cyclingand walking
in clities
Measure 2: 10 %-pointsmore bus and tram in cities
Measure 3: 10 % shorterjourneys on
all relations
Measure 4: 10 % lessfuel use
per person onall car trips
Measure 5: 10 %-pointsmore rail in
long-distancefreight
Individual level: What do these measures
mean for the user?
Macro-economic level: Which impacts does the
implementation of the measureshave on the economy?
Policy level: Which instruments aresuitable to implement
the measures?
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 9
Cost categor ies and data sources
Kategorie Indikator
Private costs Total user costs of mobility incl. purchase and maintenance of vehicles: fuel, parking and tickets (ADAC, DB, BVG, Stadtmobil, etc.)
Travel and wait time
Benefit of lower travel time by trip purpose: business: 23,48 €/h, commuting 8,48 €/h, private 7,10 €/h. Social benefits: 3,50€/h. (EU Handbook ext. costs 2008, fed. investm. plan).
Health Up to 50% lower heart infarct risk with regular exercising. Corresponds to 2000 €/month and person acc. to state of fitness (WHO HEAT Tool, DeStatis)
Traffic safety
External accident costs by means of transport and road type; value of statistical life of 1.6 mill. € (UIC 2011)
Environment, climate. noise
Climate change consequences (80 – 145 €/t CO2) plus health risks and building damages by air pollutants and noise (UBA methodological convention 2012)
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 10
The PExMo mobi l i ty cost ca lcu lator
Features: Tool in MS Excel Multi-modal trip chains Cars by size and emission class Single and season tickets for PT,
rail and Carsharing Time costs by trip purpose, mode
and level of congestion. External costs of climate change,
air pollution and noise by mode, urban/rural environment and time of day
Legende:Aus Liste auswählen Wert ist veränderbar Wert ins Feld eintragen Ergebniswert/ Referenzwert (nicht veränderbar!)
Allgemeine Datenabfrage: (Bitte nur Zutreffendes ausfüllen!)
1. Bitte geben Sie Ihre Daten zum motorisierten Fahrzeug Nr.1 (MIV 1) an:
Fahrzeugtyp: Kleinwagen Benzin Fixkosten: 14.72 Cent/km 14.72 Cent/kmSchadstoffklasse: Euro 5 Variable Kosten: 10.63 Cent/km 10.63 Cent/km
2. Bitte geben Sie Ihre Daten zum motorisierten Fahrzeug Nr.2 (MIV 2) an:
Fahrzeugtyp: Bitte auswählen Fixkosten: #NV Cent/km #NV Cent/kmSchadstoffklasse: Bitte auswählen Variable Kosten: #NV Cent/km #NV Cent/km
3. Bitte geben Sie Ihre Daten zur Bahnfahrt an:
BahnCard-Kunde: Bitte auswählen #NV Euro/Jahr #NV Euro/JahrBitte auswählen 0 Euro/Jahr
4. Bitte geben Sie Ihre Daten zur Fahrt mit dem ÖPNV an:
Zeitkarten-Besitzer: Bitte auswählen Preis der Zeitkarte: 0 Euro/Jahr
5. Bitte geben Sie Ihre Daten zu Fahrten mittels CarSharing an:
Fixkosten: 8.25 Euro/Monat Fixkosten (veränderbar) 8.25 Euro/Monat1,3 Cent/km var. Kosten (veränderbar) 1,3 Cent/km
6. Bitte geben Sie Ihre Daten zu Fahrten mit "Sonstiges" an: (unter Sonstiges versteht man: Leasingwagen, Leihwagen, etc.)
0Cent/km
7. Bitte geben Sie Ihre Daten zu Fahrradfahrten an:
Fixkosten: 50.00 Euro/Jahr Fixkosten (veränderbar) 50.00 Euro/JahrVariablen Kosten: 30.00 Euro/Jahr var. Kosten (veränderbar) 30.00 Euro/Jahr
weiter
MIV
1M
IV 2
Bahn
fahr
tÖ
PNV
CarS
hari
ngSo
nsti
ges
Fahr
rad
Gesamtkosten (fix + variabel):
Preis der Zeitkarte:Preis der BahnCard:
Zeitkarten-Besitzer:
Variable Kosten:
Blatt zurücksetzen
Frei verfügbar unter: www.ntm.isi-projekt.de/downloads.php
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 11
Personal benef i ts o f more cyc l ing and walk ing
Example:
Commuting (15 km, 250 days/a); cycling instead of driving a car. Direct and indirect annual savings:
Car owning and use: +3100 €
Health benefits +1900 €
Environment, noise + 150 €
Travel and wait time-1700 €
Safety -1900 €
Total +1500 €
Impacts:
Car size, exhaust standard, number of passengers
Length and type of route, state of fitness of the traveller
Comparing commute and leisure trips in cities with car (compact), PT, bike and walking
Car Bike Commuting 15 km
Car Bike Walk Short leisure trips 3 km
Environment * Safety
Lost health benefits Travel & wait time
Direct private costs
* Including climate and noiseSource: PExMO-Tool (Fraunhofer)
An
nu
al co
sts
(eu
ros)
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 12
Personal benef i ts through more publ ic t ranspor t use
Example:
Commuting (15 km, 250 days/year) by bus/tram instead of car. Direct and indirect savings per year
Car and tickets:^^ +2300 €
Health impacts + 600 €
Safety: + 200 €
Environment, noise + 100 €
Travel and wait time - 300 €
Total +2900 €Impacts:
Size, age, emission standard and occupancy of the car,
Distance from / to public transport stops, number of interchanges, occupancy rate and environmental friendliness of bus and tram fleet.
An
nu
al co
sts
(eu
ros)
Environment * Safety
Lost health benefits Travel & wait time
Direct private costs
* Including climate and noiseSource: PExMO-Tool (Fraunhofer)
Car Tram Bike & Tram Commuting 15 km
Car Tram leisure trips 3 km
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 13
Personal benef i t o f more eff ic ient car use
Example:
Commute (15 km, 250 days/a) by car with 2 instead of 1 person. Direct and indirect savings per year:
Car owning and use+1800 €
Safety + 200 €
External impacts + 100 €
Health impacts 0 €
Travel and wait time 0 €
Total + 2100 €Einflussgrößen:
Pkw-Größe, Umweltstandard und Anzahl der Insassen
Zeitaufwand zur Erhöhung des Besetzungsgrades
Comparing commute, leisure and business trips in cities with car of different size and occupancy
An
nu
al co
sts
(eu
ros)
Environment * Safety
Travel & wait timeDirect private costs
* Including climate and noiseSource: PExMO-Tool (Fraunhofer)
Mid class Small Mid classpetrol E3 petrol E5 petrol E31 person 1 person 2 persons Commuting 15 km
Upper cl. Compact Upper cl.diesel E3 diesel E5 diesel E31 person 1 person 2 persons Business trip 100 km
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 14
Macro-economic model l ing approach wi th ASTRA
System dynamics model ASTRA-D:
Developed since 1998 for EC and German institutions
Closed macro-economic feedback model
Integrated consideration of transport and economic sectors
Time sequence of policy measures possible
Modeling of second round effects
Detailed computation of emissions by mode and time
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 15
Macto-economic benef i ts o f more act ive mobi l i ty
Instruments:
• Parking fees, congestion charges
• Investment in cycle lanes
• Advertisement and campaigns
More cycling helps public transport. Doing so we provide a real alternative to the private car.
The environmental alliance creates investments and jobs (+4%), which more than balance less production in the automotive industry.
Travel time increases also in remaining car travel due to de-acceleration measures. Well received in times of increasing stress and burn out.
Emissions: air pollutants (-8%) decline more intensively than CO2-Emissionsn (-2%) due to energy use of public transport.
Macro-economic key indicators
Gross domestic product
Employment transport
Emplayment general
Infrastructure transport
Infrastructure general
Travel time
CO2 emissions
Pollutions (NOx)
Particles (PM)
Macro-economic key indicators
Change to scenario without measures (%)
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 16
Selected macro-economic ind icators : measures compared to base case
M1: Fuß &
RadM2:
ÖPNV
M3: kürzere
Wege
M4: Kraftst.-efizienz
M5: Güter-bahn
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
BIPBeschäftigungInvestitionenVerkehrswegebauKIimagase(CO2)Luftschadstoffe (NOx)
Ch
an
ge
20
30
ag
ain
st
ref-
ere
nce c
ase
wit
ho
ut
me
a-
su
res
GDPEmploymentInvestmentTransp. infrastr.THG (CO2)Air pollutants
M1: cycle &
walk
M2: public
transport
M3: shorterpaths
M4: fuel
efficiency
M5: rail
freight
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 17
Compar ison of macro-economic costs and benef i ts – wi thout t rave l t ime
Benefit- and cost categories
M1
Walking & cycling
M2
Public transport
M3
Shorter trips
M4
Fuel efficiency
M5
Rail freight
Health benefits 11,53 18,67 12,60 17,40 0,00
Safety benefits 0,64 0,40 6,93 -0,01 0,11
Environment etc. benefits 0,49 0,27 3,06 -2,28 3,46
Total benefits 12,66 19,34 22,59 15,11 3,57
Investments and operations 1,29 2,41 11,02 0,20 1,73
Benefit-cost-ratio
+9,8 +8.0 +2,1 +75,5 +2,1
Curr. value 2010(bill. Euro)
* Ohne Zeitkosten
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 18
Compar ison of macro-economic costs and benef i ts – wi th t rave l t ime
Benefit and cost categories
UnitCycling&walking
Public transport
Shorter car trips
Efficient car use
Rail freight
Time benefitsPresent
value
2010 *
Bill. euros
-63,26 -51,35 -55,25 -28,99 -1,34
Health benefits 11,53 18,67 12,60 17,40 0,00
Safety benefits 0,64 0,40 6,93 -0,01 0,11
Environmental benefits 0,49 0,27 3,06 -2,28 3,46
Total benefits Present
value
2010 *
bill. euros
-50,61 -32,01 -32,66 -13,89 2,23
Benefits without time 12,66 19,34 22,59 15,11 3,57
Investments 1,29 2,41 11,02 0,20 1,73
Benefit-cost ratio (BCR)
Ratio
-39,2 -13,3 -3,0 -69,4 1,3
BCR without time 9,8 8,0 2,1 75,5 2,1
BCR for environment 0,4 0,1 0,3 -11,4 2,0
* Net present value with 2020 and 2030 values
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 19
Success fac tors to sh i f t people away f rom the pr ivate car
Most important: classical hard facors of public transport supply:
Network density
Costs
Travel speeds
Soft factors relevant, but less expressed:
Safety (accidents + crime)
Staff (friendliness)
Source: USEmobility project EC 7th Framework Programme)
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 20
Linked success of publ ic t ranspor t , walk ing and cyc l ing pol ic ies
Survey on UIPT Urban Mobility Database: Main success factors for public transport use:
Quality of supply (vehicle kilometres)
Generalised costs in relation to cars
Number of bike parking places
Percentage of green areas in cities
Success of walking & cycling closely linked to PT
With good and complete alternatives people are ready to go without car
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 21
Recommendat ions
The case studies show, that transforming mobility systems to a more sustainable one is possible and pays off for the individual and the society
In addition to environment and climate protection transport users users save money. In addition they experience a considerable health benefit when cycling or walking more of up to 2000 €/year.
For shifting travel demand away from the private car, investments in cycling and walking infrastructure and in PT are required. This mostly balances out income declines in the automotive industry.
Transport systems may be successfully transformed by setting prices and fees, various regulatory measures, attractive and high capacity PT services as well as a modern region and city concepts (city of short paths). Most powerful are combinations of push and pull measures.
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 22
Posi t ive Vis ion 2050: Seamless and susta inable mobi l i ty
Mobility Card
Electric city cars
PT / Bike-sharing
Car-sharingNew personal transporters (PT)
Modern public transport
PTAs
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 23
Impl icat ions for cent ra l As ia
Due to income levels, benefits and costs of policies for walking and cycling are considerably lower. But benefit to cost ratios may be similar
Mentality differences may exist. But successful examples from Europe indicate, that environmentally friendly travel can be implemented in very different cities.
New technoligies (e-bikes) and organisational forms (carsharing) may help that central asian countries manage mobility in quickly developing economies better than the west in the past 50 years
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 24
Avai lab le mater ia ls
At www.ntm.isi-projekt.de study reports and the PExMo tool are available (German only):
E-Paper for public communication (German)
Full report (German)Summary (German and English)
PExMo Cost Calculator (German)
5 measure leaflets: (German)